Can Rachman’s indirect pathways be used to un-learn fear? A prospective paradigm to test whether children’s fears can be reduced using positive information and modelling a non-anxious response

This study investigated whether children’s fears could be un-learned using Rachman’s indirect pathways for learning fear. We hypothesised that positive information and modelling a non-anxious response are effective methods of un-learning fears acquired through verbal information. One hundred and seven children aged 6–8 years received negative information about one animal and no information about another. Fear beliefs and behavioural avoidance were measured. Children were randomised to receive positive verbal information, modelling, or a control task. Fear beliefs and behavioural avoidance were measured again. Positive information and modelling led to lower fear beliefs and behavioural avoidance than the control condition. Positive information was more effective than modelling in reducing fear beliefs and both methods significantly reduced behavioural avoidance. The results support Rachman’s indirect pathways as viable fear un-learning pathways and supports associative learning theories.

Superfast non-linear diffusion: capillary transport in particulate porous media

The migration of liquids in porous media, such as sand, has been commonly considered at high saturation levels with liquid pathways at pore dimensions. In this letter we reveal a low saturation regime observed in our experiments with droplets of extremely low volatility liquids deposited on sand. In this regime the liquid is mostly found within the grain surface roughness and in the capillary bridges formed at the contacts between the grains. The bridges act as variable-volume reservoirs and the flow is driven by the capillary pressure arising at the wetting front according to the roughness length scales. We propose that this migration (spreading) is the result of interplay between the bridge volume adjustment to this pressure distribution and viscous losses of a creeping flow within the roughness. The net macroscopic result is a special case of non-linear diffusion described by a superfast diffusion equation (SFDE) for saturation with distinctive mathematical character. We obtain solutions to a moving boundary problem defined by SFDE that robustly convey a time power law of spreading as seen in our experiments.

Retrieval characteristics of non-linear sea surface temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

Criteria are proposed for evaluating sea surface temperature (SST) retrieved from satellite infra-red imagery: bias should be small on regional scales; sensitivity to atmospheric humidity should be small; and sensitivity of retrieved SST to surface temperature should be close to 1 K K−1. Their application is illustrated for non-linear sea surface temperature (NLSST) estimates. 233929 observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on Metop-A are matched with in situ data and numerical weather prediction (NWP) fields. NLSST coefficients derived from these matches have regional biases from −0.5 to +0.3 K. Using radiative transfer modelling we find that a 10% increase in humidity alone can change the retrieved NLSST by between −0.5 K and +0.1 K. A 1 K increase in SST changes NLSST by <0.5 K in extreme cases. The validity of estimates of sensitivity by radiative transfer modelling is confirmed empirically.

A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We test whether there are nonlinearities in the response of short- and long-term interest rates to the spread in interest rates, and assess the out-of-sample predictability of interest rates using linear and nonlinear models. We find strong evidence of nonlinearities in the response of interest rates to the spread. Nonlinearities are shown to result in more accurate short-horizon forecasts, especially of the spread.

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

Fractional order and non-linear system identification algorithms for biomedical applications

We discuss the modelling of dielectric responses of amorphous biological samples. Such samples are commonly encountered in impedance spectroscopy studies as well as in UV, IR, optical and THz transient spectroscopy experiments and in pump-probe studies. In many occasions, the samples may display quenched absorption bands. A systems identification framework may be developed to provide parsimonious representations of such responses. To achieve this, it is appropriate to augment the standard models found in the identification literature to incorporate fractional order dynamics. Extensions of models using the forward shift operator, state space models as well as their non-linear Hammerstein-Wiener counterpart models are highlighted. We also discuss the need to extend the theory of electromagnetically excited networks which can account for fractional order behaviour in the non-linear regime by incorporating nonlinear elements to account for the observed non-linearities. The proposed approach leads to the development of a range of new chemometrics tools for biomedical data analysis and classification.

In vitro degradability of mature and immature leaves of tropical forage legumes differing in condensed tannin and non-starch polysaccharide content and composition

A study was designed to examine the relationships between protein, condensed tannin and cell wall carbohydrate content and composition and the nutritional quality of seven tropical legumes (Desmodium ovalifolium, Flemingia macrophylla, Leucaena leucocephala, L pallida, L macrophylla, Calliandra calothyrsus and Clitotia fairchildiana). Among the legume species studied, D ovalifolium showed the lowest concentration of nitrogen, while L leucocephala showed the highest. Fibre (NDF) content was lowest in C calothyrsus, L Leucocephala and L pallida and highest in L macrophylla, which had no measurable condensed tannins. The highest tannin concentration was found in C calothyrsus. Total non-structural polysaccharides (NSP) varied among legumes species (lowest in C calothyrsus and highest in D ovalifolium), and glucose and uronic acids were the most abundant carbohydrate constituents in all legumes. Total NSP losses were lowest in F macrophylla and highest in L leucocephala and L pallida. Gas accumulation and acetate and propionate levels were 50% less with F macrophylla and D ovalifolium as compared with L leucocephala. The highest levels of branched-chain fatty acids were observed with non-tanniniferous legumes, and negative concentrations were observed with some of the legumes with high tannin content (D ovalifolium and F macrophylla). Linear regression analysis showed that the presence of condensed tannins was more related to a reduction of the initial rate of gas production (0-48 h) than to the final amount of gas produced or the extent (144h) of dry matter degradation, which could be due to differences in tannin chemistry. Consequently, more attention should be given in the future to elucidating the impact of tannin structure on the nutritional quality of tropical forage legumes. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Stereochemically non-rigid helical mercury(II) complexes

Reactions of the 1: 2 condensate (L) of benzil dihydrazone and 2-acetylpyridine with Hg(ClO4)(2) center dot xH(2)O and HgI2 yield yellow [HgL2](ClO4)(2) (1) and HgLI2 (2), respectively. Homoleptic 1 is a 8-coordinate double helical complex with a Hg(II)N-8 core crystallising in the space group Pbca with cell dimensions: a = 16.2250(3), b = 20.9563(7), c = 31.9886(11) angstrom. Complex 2 is a 4-coordinate single helical complex having a Hg(II)N2I2 core crystallising in the space group P2(1)/n with cell dimensions a = 9.8011(3), b = 17.6736(6), c = 16.7123(6) angstrom and b = 95.760(3). In complex 1, the N-donor ligand L uses all of its binding sites to act as tetradentate. On the other hand, it acts as a bidentate N-donor ligand in 2 giving rise to a dangling part. From variable temperature H-1 NMR studies both the complexes are found to be stereochemically non-rigid in solution. In the case of 2, the solution process involves wrapping up of the dangling part of L around the metal. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural diversity in supramolecular architectures of Mn(II) through non-covalent interactions

Two mononuclear complexes of manganese(II), [Mn(OCN)(2)(phen)(2)] 1 and [Mn(NCO)(2)(bpy)(2)] 2 [1,10-phenanthroline (phen); 2,2'-bipyridine (bpy)], have been synthesized and characterized by single crystal X-ray analysis, infra-red spectroscopy and magnetic studies. The coordination structure of complex 2 is already reported. The cyanate anions are pendent in both the complexes. In 1, cyanate anion links manganese(II) through O-atom, whereas in 2 it coordinates through N-atom. The mononuclear fragments of 1 are built up to a supramolecular lamellar 3D architecture by pi-pi interactions only. On the other hand, mononuclear fragments of 2 are assembled to a 2D supramolecular brick-wall architecture by C-H-... pi interactions.

Ligand-centred reactivity of bis(picolyl)amine iridium: sequential deprotonation, oxidation and oxygenation of a "non-innocent" ligand

Treatment of [Ir(bpa)(cod)](+) complex [1](+) with a strong base (e.g., tBuO(-)) led to unexpected double deprotonation to form the anionic [Ir-(bpa-2H)(cod)](-) species [3](-), via the mono-deprotonated neutral amido complex [Ir(bpa-H)(cod)] as an isolable intermediate. A certain degree of aromaticity of the obtained metal-chelate ring may explain the favourable double deprotonation. The rhodium analogue [4](-) was prepared in situ. The new species [M(bpa-2H)(cod)](-) (M = Rh, Ir) are best described as two-electron reduced analogues of the cationic imine complexes [M-I(cod)(Py-CH2-N=CH-Py)](+). One-electron oxidation of [3](-) and [4](-) produced the ligand radical complexes [3]* and [4]*. Oxygenation of [3](-) with O-2 gave the neutral carboxamido complex [Ir(cod)(py-CH2-N-CO-py)] via the ligand radical complex [3]* as a detectable intermediate.