Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection

A number of authors have proposed clinical trial designs involving the comparison of several experimental treatments with a control treatment in two or more stages. At the end of the first stage, the most promising experimental treatment is selected, and all other experimental treatments are dropped from the trial. Provided it is good enough, the selected experimental treatment is then compared with the control treatment in one or more subsequent stages. The analysis of data from such a trial is problematic because of the treatment selection and the possibility of stopping at interim analyses. These aspects lead to bias in the maximum-likelihood estimate of the advantage of the selected experimental treatment over the control and to inaccurate coverage for the associated confidence interval. In this paper, we evaluate the bias of the maximum-likelihood estimate and propose a bias-adjusted estimate. We also propose an approach to the construction of a confidence region for the vector of advantages of the experimental treatments over the control based on an ordering of the sample space. These regions are shown to have accurate coverage, although they are also shown to be necessarily unbounded. Confidence intervals for the advantage of the selected treatment are obtained from the confidence regions and are shown to have more accurate coverage than the standard confidence interval based upon the maximum-likelihood estimate and its asymptotic standard error.

Chemical characterisation of wild populations of Thymus from different climatic regions in southeast Spain

Thymus is taxonomically a very complex genus with a high frequency of hybridisation and introgression among sympatric species. The variation in accumulation of leaf-surface flavonoids was investigated in 71 wild populations of Thymus front different putative hybrid swarm areas in Andalucia, Spain. Twenty-two flavones, five flavanones, two dihydroflavonols, a flavonol and two unknowns were detected by HPLC-DAD combined with LC-APCI-MS analysis. The majority of compounds were flavones with a lutelin-type substitution of the B-ring, in contrast to previous reports on Macedonian taxa, which predominantly accumulate flavones with apigenin-type substitution of the B-ring. Anatomical and morphometric studies, supported by cluster analysis, identified pure Thymus hyemalis and Thymus baeticus populations, and a large number of putative hybrids. Flavonoid variation was closely related to morphological variation in all populations and is suspected to be a result of genetic polymorphism. Principal component analysis identified the presence of species-specific and geographically linked chemotypes and putative hybrids with mixed morphological and chemical characteristics. Qualitative and quantitative flavonoid accumulation appears to be genetically regulated, while external factors play a secondary role. Flavonoid profiles can thus provide diagnostic markers for the taxonomy of Thymus and are also useful in detecting hybridising taxa. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intrinsic disorder prediction from the analysis of multiple protein fold recognition models

Motivation: Intrinsic protein disorder is functionally implicated in numerous biological roles and is, therefore, ubiquitous in proteins from all three kingdoms of life. Determining the disordered regions in proteins presents a challenge for experimental methods and so recently there has been much focus on the development of improved predictive methods. In this article, a novel technique for disorder prediction, called DISOclust, is described, which is based on the analysis of multiple protein fold recognition models. The DISOclust method is rigorously benchmarked against the top.ve methods from the CASP7 experiment. In addition, the optimal consensus of the tested methods is determined and the added value from each method is quantified. Results: The DISOclust method is shown to add the most value to a simple consensus of methods, even in the absence of target sequence homology to known structures. A simple consensus of methods that includes DISOclust can significantly outperform all of the previous individual methods tested.

Modelling the formation of necrotic regions in avascular tumours

The mechanisms underlying the formation of necrotic regions within avascular tumours are not well understood. In this paper, we examine the relative roles of nutrient deprivation and of cell death, from both the proliferating phase of the cell cycle via apoptosis and from the quiescent phase via necrosis, in changing the structure within multicellular tumour spheroids and particularly the accumulation of dead cell material in the centre. A mathematical model is presented and studied that accounts for nutrient diffusion, changes in cell cycling rates, the two different routes to cell death as well as active motion of cells and passive motion of the dead cell material. In studying the accumulation of dead cell matter we do not distinguish between the route by which each was formed. The resulting mathematical model is examined for a number of scenarios. Results show that in many cases the size of the necrotic core is closely correlated with low levels in nutrient concentration. However, in certain cases, particularly where the rate of necrosis is large, the resulting necrotic core can lead to regions of non-negligible nutrient concentration-dependent upon the mode of cell death.

The role of biotic and abiotic factors in evolution of ant dispersal in the milkwort family (Polygalaceae)

A phylogenetic approach was taken to investigate the evolutionary history of seed appendages in the plant family Polygalaceae (Fabales) and determine which factors might be associated with evolution of elaiosomes through comparisons to abiotic (climate) and biotic (ant species number and abundance) timelines. Molecular datasets from three plastid regions representing 160 species were used to reconstruct a phylogenetic tree of the order Fabales, focusing on Polygalaceae. Bayesian dating methods were used to estimate the age of the appearance of ant-dispersed elaiosomes in Polygalaceae, shown by likelihood optimizations to have a single origin in the family. Topology-based tests indicated a diversification rate shift associated with appearance of caruncular elaiosomes. We show that evolution of the caruncular elaiosome type currently associated with ant dispersal occurred 54.0-50.5 million year ago. This is long after an estimated increase in ant lineages in the Late Cretaceous based on molecular studies, but broadly concomitant with increasing global temperatures culminating in the Late Paleocene-Early Eocene thermal maxima. These results suggest that although most major ant clades were present when elaiosomes appeared, the environmental significance of elaiosomes may have been an important factor in success of elaiosome-bearing lineages. Ecological abundance of ants is perhaps more important than lineage numbers in determining significance of ant dispersal. Thus, our observation that elaiosomes predate increased ecological abundance of ants inferred from amber deposits could be indicative of an initial abiotic environmental function.

Extreme complementarity in a macrocycle-tweezer complex

Interaction of a novel pyrene-based tweezer molecule with a macrocyclic ether-imide-sulfone results in formation of a strongly bound complex (K-a = 24 000 M-1) in which binding results not only from pi-pi stacking interactions involving pyrene units as donors and macrocyclic naphthalene-tetracarboximide and biphenylenedisulfone groups as acceptors but also from N-(HO)-O-... and C-(HO)-O-... hydrogen bonds and from "reverse" pi-stacking of the electron-poor isophthaloyl residue of the tweezer with an electron-rich 3-aminophenoxy residue of the macrocyclic imide.

Analysis of ochres from Clearwell Caves: the role of particle size in determining colour

Three ochre samples (A (orange-red in colour), B (red) and C (purple)) from Clearwell Caves, (Gloucestershire, UK) have been examined using an integrated analytical methodology based on the techniques of IR and diffuse reflectance UV-visible-NIR spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, elemental analysis by ICP-AES and particle size analysis. It is shown that the chromophore in each case is haematite. The differences in colour may be accounted for by (i) different mineralogical and chemical composition in the case of the orange ochre, where hi,,her levels of dolomite and copper are seen and (ii) an unusual particle size distribution in the case of the purple ochre. When the purple ochre was ground to give the same particle size distribution as the red ochre then the colours of the two samples became indistinguishable. An analysis has now been completed of a range of ochre samples with colours from yellow to purple from the important site of Clearwell Caves. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toughness & cutting: A new way of determining ductile fracture toughness and strength

A review is given of the mechanics of cutting, ranging from the slicing of thin floppy offcuts (where there is negligible elasticity and no permanent deformation of the offcut) to the machining of ductile metals (where there is severe permanent distortion of the offcut/chip). Materials scientists employ the former conditions to determine the fracture toughness of ‘soft’ solids such as biological materials and foodstuffs. In contrast, traditional analyses of metalcutting are based on plasticity and friction only, and do not incorporate toughness. The machining theories are inadequate in a number of ways but a recent paper has shown that when ductile work of fracture is included many, if not all, of the shortcomings are removed. Support for the new analysis is given by examination of FEM simulations of metalcutting which reveal that a ‘separation criterion’ has to be employed at the tool tip. Some consideration shows that the separation criteria are versions of void-initiation-growth-and-coalescence models employed in ductile fracture mechanics. The new analysis shows that cutting forces for ductile materials depend upon the fracture toughness as well as plasticity and friction, and reveals a simple way of determining both toughness and flow stress from cutting experiments. Examples are given for a wide range of materials including metals, polymers and wood, and comparison is made with the same properties independently determined using conventional testpieces. Because cutting can be steady state, a new way is presented for simultaneously measuring toughness and flow stress at controlled speeds and strain rates.

Developing a quantitative approach for determining the in vitro prebiotic potential of dietary oligosaccharides

Prebiotics are nondigestible carbohydrates that beneficially affect the host by selectively stimulating the growth and/or activity of one, or a limited number of, bacteria present in the colon. The selected genera should have the capacity to improve host health (e.g. Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus). To help identify preferred types, for inclusion into the diet, a quantitative equation [measure of the prebiotic effect (MPE)] is suggested. This will help evaluate, in vitro, the fermentation of dietary carbohydrates and compare their prebiotic effect. Although the approach is not meant to define health values, it is formulated to better inform the choice of prebiotic. It therefore, compares measurements of bacterial changes through the determination of maximum growth rates of predominant groups present in faeces, rate of substrate assimilation and the production of lactic, acetic, propionic and butyric acids. The equation will allow further in vitro comparisons of MPE, leading towards further studies (e.g. in humans) to determine the success of dietary intervention. (C) 2004 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variation in 16S-23S rRNA intergenic spacer regions in Photobacterium damselae: a mosaic-like structure

Phenotypically, Photobacterium damselae subsp. piscicida and P. damselae subsp. damselae are easily distinguished. However, their 16S rRNA gene sequences are identical, and attempts to discriminate these two subspecies by molecular tools are hampered by their high level of DNA-DNA similarity. The 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacers (ITS) were sequenced in two strains of Photobacterium damselae subsp. piscicida and two strains of P. damselae subsp. damselae to determine the level of molecular diversity in this DNA region. A total of 17 different ITS variants, ranging from 803 to 296 bp were found, some of which were subspecies or strain specific. The largest ITS contained four tRNA genes (tDNAs) coding for tRNA(Glu(UUC)), tRNA(LyS(UUU)), tRNA(Val(UAC)), and tRNA(Ala(GGC)). Five amplicons contained tRNA(Glu(UUC)) combined with two additional tRNA genes, including tRNA(Lys(UUU)), tRNA(Val(UAC)), or tRNA(Ala(UGC)). Five amplicons contained tRNA(Ile(GAU)) and tRNA(Ala(UGC)). Two amplicons contained tRNA(Glu(UUC)) and tRNA(Val(UGC)). Two different isoacceptor tRNA(Ala) genes (GGC and UGC anticodons) were found. The five smallest amplicons contained no tRNA genes. The tRNA-gene combinations tRNA(Glu(UUC)) -tRNA(Val(UAC)) -tRNA(Ala(UGC)) and tRNA(Glu(UUC)) -tRNA(Ala(UGC)) have not been previously reported in bacterial ITS regions. The number of copies of the ribosomal operon (rrn) in the P. damselae chromosome ranged from at least 9 to 12. For ITS variants coexisting in two strains of different subspecies or in strains of the same subspecies, nucleotide substitution percentages ranged from 0 to 2%. The main source of variation between ITS variants was due to different combinations of DNA sequence blocks, constituting a mosaic-like structure.

Motor brain regions are involved in the encoding of delayed intentions: a fMRI study

In studies of prospective memory, recall of the content of delayed intentions is normally excellent, probably because they contain actions that have to be enacted at a later time. Action words encoded for later enactment are more accessible from memory than those encoded for later verbal report [Freeman, J.E., and Ellis, J.A. 2003a. The representation of delayed intentions: A prospective subject-performed task? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 29, 976-992.]. As this higher assessibility is lost when the intended actions have to be enacted during encoding, or when a motor interference task is introduced concurrent to intention encoding, Freeman and Ellis suggested that the advantage of to-be-enacted actions is due to additional preparatory motor operations during encoding. Accordingly, in a fMRI study with 10 healthy young participants, we investigated whether motor brain regions are differentially activated during verbal encoding of actions for later enactment with the right hand in contrast to verbal encoding of actions for later verbal report. We included an additional condition of verbal encoding of abstract verbs for later verbal report to investigate whether the semantic motor information inherent in action verbs in contrast to abstract verbs activates motor brain regions different from those involved in the verbal encoding of actions for later enactment. Differential activation for the verbal encoding of to-be-enacted actions in contrast to to-be-reported actions was found in brain regions known to be involved in covert motor preparation for hand movements, i.e. the postcentral gyrus, the precuneus, the dorsal and ventral premotor cortex, the posterior middle temporal gyrus and the inferior parietal lobule. There was no overlap between these brain regions and those differentially activated during the verbal encoding of actions in contrast to abstract verbs for later verbal report. Consequently, the results of this fMRI study suggest the presence of preparatory motor operations during the encoding of delayed intentions requiring a future motor response, which cannot be attributed to semantic information inherent to action verbs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining feature relevance for the grouping of motor unit action potentials through generative topographic mapping

The study of motor unit action potential (MUAP) activity from electrornyographic signals is an important stage on neurological investigations that aim to understand the state of the neuromuscular system. In this context, the identification and clustering of MUAPs that exhibit common characteristics, and the assessment of which data features are most relevant for the definition of such cluster structure are central issues. In this paper, we propose the application of an unsupervised Feature Relevance Determination (FRD) method to the analysis of experimental MUAPs obtained from healthy human subjects. In contrast to approaches that require the knowledge of a priori information from the data, this FRD method is embedded on a constrained mixture model, known as Generative Topographic Mapping, which simultaneously performs clustering and visualization of MUAPs. The experimental results of the analysis of a data set consisting of MUAPs measured from the surface of the First Dorsal Interosseous, a hand muscle, indicate that the MUAP features corresponding to the hyperpolarization period in the physisiological process of generation of muscle fibre action potentials are consistently estimated as the most relevant and, therefore, as those that should be paid preferential attention for the interpretation of the MUAP groupings.