Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: a dynamic coherence framework

This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between real estate markets, in the US and the UK and their macroeconomic environments. We apply a new approach based on a dynamic coherence function (DCF) to study these interactions bringing together different real estate markets (the securitized market, the commercial market and the residential market). The results suggest that there is a common trend that drives the different real estate markets in the UK and the US, particularly in the long run, since they have a similar shape of the DCF. We also find that, in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, in the UK, only the wealth effect is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. In addition, real estate markets in the UK and the US react differently to institutional shocks. This brings some insights on the conduct of monetary policy in order to avoid disturbances in real estate markets.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship of future climate change and adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al.; O’Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. A key goal of the current framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the uncertainties in the multimodel projections. Under the midrange representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) emission scenario, the December–February (DJF) response is characterized by a tripolar pattern over Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. The June–August (JJA) response is characterized by a reduction in the number of North Atlantic cyclones along the southern flank of the storm track. The total number of cyclones decreases in both DJF (24%) and JJA (22%). Classifying cyclones according to their intensity indicates a slight basinwide reduction in the number of cy- clones associated with strong winds, but an increase in those associated with strong precipitation. However, in DJF, a slight increase in the number and intensity of cyclones associated with strong wind speeds is found over the United Kingdom and central Europe. The results are confirmed under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, where the signals tend to be larger. The sources of uncertainty in these projections are discussed.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

A multimodel assessment of the influence of regional anthropogenic emission reductions on aerosol direct radiative forcing and the role of intercontinental transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean ± one standard deviation) is  ±3.5 ±0.8,  ±4.0 ±1.7, and 29.5 ±18.1mWm ±2 per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 ±5% to 31 ±9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 ±9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 ±18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Comparing the fit between BREEAM assessment and design processes

This paper explores the mapping of the environmental assessment process onto design and construction processes. A comparative case study method is used to identify and account for variations in the ‘fit’ between these two processes. The analysis compares eight BREEAM projects (although relevant to LEED, GreenStar, etc.) and distinguishes project-level characteristics and dynamics. Drawing on insights from literature on sustainable construction and assessment methods, an analytic framework is developed to examine the effect of clusters of project and assessment level elements on different types of fit (tight, punctual and bolt-on). Key elements distinguishing between types include: prior working experience with project team members, individual commitment to sustainable construction, experience with sustainable construction, project continuity, project-level ownership of the assessment process, and the nature and continuity of assessor involvement. Professionals with ‘sustainable’ experience used BREEAM judiciously to support their designs (along with other frameworks), but less committed professionals tended to treat it purely as an assessment method. More attention needs to be paid to individual levels of engagement with, and understanding of, sustainability in general (rather than knowledge of technical solutions to individual credits), to ownership of the assessment process and to the potential effect of discontinuities at the project level on sustainable design.

Assessment and management of anxiety disorders in children and adolescents

Anxiety disorders in childhood and adolescence are extremely common and are often associated with lifelong psychiatric disturbance. Consistent with DSM-5 and the extant literature, this review concerns the assessment and treatment of specific phobias, separation anxiety disorder, generalised anxiety disorder, social anxiety disorder, panic disorder and agoraphobia. Evidence-based psychological treatments (cognitive behaviour therapy; CBT) for these disorders have been developed and investigated, and in recent years promising low-intensity versions of CBT interventions have been proposed that offer a means to increase access to evidence-based treatments. There is some evidence of effectiveness of pharmacological treatments for anxiety disorders in children and young people, however, routine prescription is not recommended due to concerns about potential harm.

Northern winter climate change: assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere–troposphere coupling

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on Northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess Northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the inter-model spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the inter-model spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Non-Refoulement between 'Common Article 1' and 'Common Article 3'

This article considers whether, in the context of armed conflicts, certain non-refoulement obligations of non-belligerent States can be derived from the 1949 Geneva Conventions. According to Common Article 1 (CA1) thereof, all High Contracting Parties (HCPs) undertake to ‘respect and to ensure respect’ for the four conventions ‘in all circumstances’. It is contended that CA1 applies both in international armed conflicts (IACs) and in non-international armed conflicts (NIACs). In turn, it is suggested that Common Article 3 (CA3) which regulates conduct in NIACs serves as a ‘minimum yardstick’ also applicable in IACs. It is widely (though not uniformly) acknowledged that the undertaking to ‘ensure respect’ in a given armed conflict extends to HCPs that are not parties to it; nevertheless, the precise scope of this undertaking is subject to scholarly debate. This article concerns situations where, in the course of an (international or non-international) armed conflict, persons ’taking no active part in hostilities’ flee from States where violations of CA3 are (likely to be) occurring to a non-belligerent State. Based on the undertaking in CA1, the central claim of this article is that, as long as risk of exposure to these violations persists, persons should not be refouled notwithstanding possible assessment of whether they qualify as refugees based on the 1951 Refugee Convention definition, or could be eligible for complementary or subsidiary forms of protection that are regulated in regional arrangements. The analysis does not affect the explicit protection from refoulement that the Fourth Geneva Convention accords to ‘protected persons’ (as defined in Article 4 thereof). It is submitted that CA1 should be read in tandem with other obligations of non-belligerent States under the 1949 Geneva Conventions. Most pertinently, all HCPs are required to take specific measures to repress ‘grave breaches’ and to take measures necessary for the suppression of all acts contrary to the 1949 Geneva Conventions other than the grave breaches. A HCP that is capable of protecting displaced persons from exposure to risks of violations of CA3 and nonetheless refoules them to face such risks is arguably failing to take lawful measures at its disposal in order to suppress acts contrary to the conventions and, consequently, fails to ‘ensure respect’ for the conventions. KEYWORDS Non-refoulement; International Armed Conflict; Non-International Armed Conflict; Common Article 1; Common Article 3

Science-based conservation and management in wetland archaeology: the example of Sutton Common, UK

This paper addresses the perception of different wetlands in and around the Humber estuary in the Bronze Age. Combining past and current research, it will be argued that the perception of intertidal wetlands was nearly diametrically opposed to the perception of riverine floodplains. This contrasting perception is reflected in the material culture of the Bronze Age, and may be explained through the particular manner in which landscapes changed following marine transgressions. This work was largely undertaken within the framework of the Humber Wetlands Survey, an integrated archaeological and palaeoenvironmental research programme funded by English Heritage since 1992

Dominant components of the Thoroughbred metabolome characterised by 1H‐NMR spectroscopy: a metabolite atlas of common biofluids

Summary Reasons for performing study: Metabonomics is emerging as a powerful tool for disease screening and investigating mammalian metabolism. This study aims to create a metabolic framework by producing a preliminary reference guide for the normal equine metabolic milieu. Objectives: To metabolically profile plasma, urine and faecal water from healthy racehorses using high resolution 1H-NMR spectroscopy and to provide a list of dominant metabolites present in each biofluid for the benefit of future research in this area. Study design: This study was performed using seven Thoroughbreds in race training at a single time-point. Urine and faecal samples were collected non-invasively and plasma was obtained from samples taken for routine clinical chemistry purposes. Methods: Biofluids were analysed using 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Metabolite assignment was achieved via a range of 1D and 2D experiments. Results: A total of 102 metabolites were assigned across the three biological matrices. A core metabonome of 14 metabolites was ubiquitous across all biofluids. All biological matrices provided a unique window on different aspects of systematic metabolism. Urine was the most populated metabolite matrix with 65 identified metabolites, 39 of which were unique to this biological compartment. A number of these were related to gut microbial host co-metabolism. Faecal samples were the most metabolically variable between animals; acetate was responsible for the majority (28%) of this variation. Short chain fatty acids were the predominant features identified within this biofluid by 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Conclusions: Metabonomics provides a platform for investigating complex and dynamic interactions between the host and its consortium of gut microbes and has the potential to uncover markers for health and disease in a variety of biofluids. Inherent variation in faecal extracts along with the relative abundance of microbial-mammalian metabolites in urine and invasive nature of plasma sampling, infers that urine is the most appropriate biofluid for the purposes of metabonomic analysis.

Parenting difficulties and postnatal depression: implications for primary healthcare assessment and intervention

Postnatal depression (PND) is associated with impairments in the mother–child relationship, and these impairments are themselves associated with adverse child outcomes. Thus, compared to the children of non-depressed mothers, children of mothers with PND are more likely to be insecurely attached, and to have externalising behaviour problems and poor cognitive development. Each of these three child outcomes is predicted by a particular pattern of difficulty in parenting: insecure attachment is related to maternal insensitivity, particularly in relation to infant distress and emotional vulnerability; externalising problems are particularly common in the context of hostile parenting; and poor cognitive development is related to parental difficulties in noticing infant signs of interest and supporting their engagement with the environment. This article sets out procedures for how parenting could be assessed in ways that are sensitive to the domain-specific associations between parenting and child outcome, while remaining sensitive to the child's developmental stage. This set of assessments requires field testing.

A comparative review of skill assessment: performance, prediction and profiling

The assessment of chess players is an increasingly attractive opportunity and an unfortunate necessity. The chess community needs to limit potential reputational damage by inhibiting cheating and unjustified accusations of cheating: there has been a recent rise in both. A number of counter-intuitive discoveries have been made by benchmarking the intrinsic merit of players’ moves: these call for further investigation. Is Capablanca actually, objectively the most accurate World Champion? Has ELO rating inflation not taken place? Stimulated by FIDE/ACP, we revisit the fundamentals of the subject to advance a framework suitable for improved standards of computational experiment and more precise results. Other domains look to chess as the demonstrator of good practice, including the rating of professionals making high-value decisions under pressure, personnel evaluation by Multichoice Assessment and the organization of crowd-sourcing in citizen science projects. The ‘3P’ themes of performance, prediction and profiling pervade all these domains.

Emergy-based sustainability assessment of different energy options for green buildings

It is necessary to minimize the environmental impact and utilize natural resources in a sustainable and efficient manner in the early design stage of developing an environmentally-conscious design for a heating, ventilating and air-conditioning system. Energy supply options play a significant role in the total environmental load of heating, ventilating and air-conditioning systems. To assess the environmental impact of different energy options, a new method based on Emergy Analysis is proposed. Emergy Accounting, was first developed and widely used in the area of ecological engineering, but this is the first time it has been used in building service engineering. The environmental impacts due to the energy options are divided into four categories under the Emergy Framework: the depletion of natural resources, the greenhouse effect (carbon dioxide equivalents), the chemical rain effect (sulphur dioxide equivalents), and anthropogenic heat release. The depletion of non-renewable natural resources is indicated by the Environmental Load Ratio, and the environmental carrying capacity is developed to represent the environmental service to dilute the pollutants and anthropogenic heat released. This Emergy evaluation method provides a new way to integrate different environmental impacts under the same framework and thus facilitates better system choices. A case study of six different kinds of energy options consisting of renewable and non-renewable energy was performed by using Emergy Theory, and thus their relative environmental impacts were compared. The results show that the method of electricity generation in energy sources, especially for electricity-powered systems, is the most important factor to determine their overall environmental performance. The direct-fired lithium-bromide absorption type consumes more non-renewable energy, and contributes more to the urban heat island effect compared with other options having the same electricity supply. Using Emergy Analysis, designers and clients can make better-informed, environmentally-conscious selections of heating, ventilating and air-conditioning systems.