The interaction of moist convection and mid-level dry air in the advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon

The advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon is here explained in terms of a balance between the low-level monsoon flow and an over-running intrusion of mid-tropospheric dry air. The monsoon advances, over a period of about 6 weeks, from the south of the country to the northwest. Given that the low-level monsoon winds are westerly or southwesterly, and the midlevel winds northwesterly, the monsoon onset propagates upwind relative to midlevel flow, and perpendicular to the low-level flow, and is not directly caused by moisture flux toward the northwest. Lacking a conceptual model for the advance means that it has been hard to understand and correct known biases in weather and climate prediction models. The mid-level northwesterlies form a wedge of dry air that is deep in the far northwest of India and over-runs the monsoon flow. The dry layer is moistened from below by shallow cumulus and congestus clouds, so that the profile becomes much closer to moist adiabatic, and the dry layer is much shallower in the vertical, toward the southeast of India. The profiles associated with this dry air show how the most favourable environment for deep convection occurs in the south, and onset occurs here first. As the onset advances across India, the advection of moisture from the Arabian Sea becomes stronger, and the mid-level dry air is increasingly moistened from below. This increased moistening makes the wedge of dry air shallower throughout its horizontal extent, and forces the northern limit of moist convection to move toward the northwest. Wetting of the land surface by rainfall will further reinforce the north-westward progression, by sustaining the supply of boundary layer moisture and shallow cumulus. The local advance of the monsoon onset is coincident with weakening of the mid-level northwesterlies, and therefore weakened mid-level dry advection.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

An assessment of the effects of climate change on horticulture

Horticulture may be defined as the intensive cultivation and harvesting of plants for financial, environmental and social profit. Evidence for the occurrence of climate change more generally and reasons why this process is happening with such rapidity are discussed. These changes are then considered in terms of the effects which might alter the options for worldwide intensive horticultural cultivation of plants and its interactions with other organisms. Potentially changing climates will have considerable impact upon horticultural processes and productivity across the globe . Climate change will alter the growth patterns and capabilities for flowering and fruiting of many perennial and annual horticultural plants. In some regions perennial fruit crops are likely to experience substantial difficulties because of altered seasonal conditions affecting dormancy, acclimation and subsequent flowering and fruiting. Elsewhere these crops may benefit from the effects of climate change as a result of reduced cold damage and increased length of the growing season. There will be considerable effects for aerial and edaphic microbes invertebrate and vertebrate animals which have benign and pathogenic interactions with horticultural plants. Microbial activity and as a consequence soil fertility may alter. New pests and pathogens may become prevalent and damaging in areas where the climate previously excluded their activity. Vital resources such as water and nutrients may become scarce in some regions reducing opportunities for growing horticultural crops. Wind and windiness are significant factors governing the success of horticultural plants and the scale of their impacts may change as climate alters. Damaging winds could limit crop growing in areas where previously it flourished. Forms of macro- and micro-landscaping will change as the spectrum of plants which can be cultivated alters and the availability of resources and their cost changes driven by scarcities brought about by climate change. The horticultural economy of India as it may be affected by climate change is described as an individual example in a detailed study.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment

Timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation in a high alpine stalagmite from Switzerland

The timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation, also known as Termination II (T-II), is subject of controversial discussions due to the scarcity of precisely-dated palaeoclimate records. Here we present a new precisely-dated and highly-resolved multi-proxy stalagmite record covering T-II from the high alpine Schafsloch Cave in Switzerland, an area where climate is governed by the North Atlantic. The inception of stalagmite growth at 137.4 ± 1.4 kyr before present (BP) indicates the presence of drip water and cave air temperatures of above 0°C, and is related to a climate-induced change in the thermal state (from cold- to warm-based) of the glacier above the cave. The cessation of stalagmite growth between 133.1 ± 0.7 and 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is most likely related to distinct drop in temperature associated with Heinrich stadial 11. The resumption of stalagmite growth at 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is accompanied by an abrupt increase in temperature and precipitation as indicated by distinct shifts in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition as well as in trace element concentrations. The mid-point of T-II is around 131.8 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Schafsloch Cave record is significantly earlier compared to the age of 129.1 ± 0.1 kyr BP in the Sanbao Cave record from China. The different ages between both records can be best explained by the competing effects of insolation and glacial boundary forcing on seasonality and snow cover extent in Eurasia.