Perturbed Rankine vortices in surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics

An analytical dispersion relation is derived for linear perturbations to a Rankine vortex governed by surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics. Such a Rankine vortex is a circular region of uniform anomalous surface temperature evolving under quasi-geostrophic dynamics with uniform interior potential vorticity. The dispersion relation is analysed in detail and compared to the more familiar dispersion relation for a perturbed Rankine vortex governed by the Euler equations. The results are successfully verified against numerical simulations of the full equations. The dispersion relation is relevant to problems including wave propagation on surface temperature fronts and the stability of vortices in quasi-geostrophic turbulence.

On the evolution of the solar wind between 1 and 5 AU at the time of the Cassini Jupiter flyby: Multispacecraft observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections including the formation of a merged interaction region

The Cassini flyby of Jupiter occurred at a time near solar maximum. Consequently, the pre-Jupiter data set reveals clear and numerous transient perturbations to the Parker Spiral solar wind structure. Limited plasma data are available at Cassini for this period due to pointing restrictions imposed on the instrument. This renders the identification of the nature of such structures ambiguous, as determinations based on the magnetic field data alone are unreliable. However, a fortuitous alignment of the planets during this encounter allowed us to trace these structures back to those observed previously by the Wind spacecraft near the Earth. Of the phenomena that we are satisfactorily able to trace back to their manifestation at 1 AU, two are identified as being due to interplanetary coronal mass ejections. One event at Cassini is shown to be a merged interaction region, which is formed from the compression of a magnetic cloud by two anomalously fast solar wind streams. The flux-rope structure associated with this magnetic cloud is not as apparent at Cassini and has most likely been compressed and deformed. Confirmation of the validity of the ballistic projections used here is provided by results obtained from a one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic projection of solar wind parameters measured upstream near the Earth. It is found that when the Earth and Cassini are within a few tens of degrees in heliospheric longitude, the results of this one-dimensional model predict the actual conditions measured at 5 AU to an impressive degree. Finally, the validity of the use of such one-dimensional projections in obtaining quasi-solar wind parameters at the outer planets is discussed.

Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis

Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale - Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of revisions since it was last applied in the hydrological literature. This paper serves to provide a detailed description of the latest version of the model. The main revisions include the following: (1) the ability for the model to be run for n repetitions, which provides more robust estimates of extreme hydrological behaviour, (2) the ability of the model to use a gridded field of coefficient of variation (CV) of daily rainfall for the stochastic disaggregation of monthly precipitation to daily precipitation, and (3) the model can now be forced with daily input climate data as well as monthly input climate data. We demonstrate the effects that each of these three revisions has on simulated runoff relative to before the revisions were applied. Importantly, we show that when Mac-PDM.09 is forced with monthly input data, it results in a negative runoff bias relative to when daily forcings are applied, for regions of the globe where the day-to-day variability in relative humidity is high. The runoff bias can be up to - 80% for a small selection of catchments but the absolute magnitude of the bias may be small. As such, we recommend future applications of Mac-PDM.09 that use monthly climate forcings acknowledge the bias as a limitation of the model. The performance of Mac-PDM.09 is evaluated by validating simulated runoff against observed runoff for 50 catchments. We also present a sensitivity analysis that demonstrates that simulated runoff is considerably more sensitive to method of PE calculation than to perturbations in soil moisture and field capacity parameters.

Stratospheric water vapour and high climate sensitivity in a version of the HadSM3 climate model

It has been shown previously that one member of the Met Office Hadley Centre single-parameter perturbed physics ensemble – the so-called "low entrainment parameter" member – has a much higher climate sensitivity than other individual parameter perturbations. Here we show that the concentration of stratospheric water vapour in this member is over three times higher than observations, and, more importantly for climate sensitivity, increases significantly when climate warms. The large surface temperature response of this ensemble member is more consistent with stratospheric humidity change, rather than upper tropospheric clouds as has been previously suggested. The direct relationship between the bias in the control state (elevated stratospheric humidity) and the cause of the high climate sensitivity (a further increase in stratospheric humidity) lends further doubt as to the realism of this particular integration. This, together with other evidence, lowers the likelihood that the climate system's physical sensitivity is significantly higher than the likely upper range quoted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report.

Coriolis interactions about x-y axes in symmetric tops

Selection rules and matrix elements are derived for Coriolis interactions between vibrational levels due to rotation about (x, y) axes in symmetric top molecules. The theory is developed in detail for the case of interaction between an A1 and an E species vibrational level in a C3v molecule; perturbations to both the positions and the intensities of the rovibration transitions in the spectrum are considered. A computer program has been written which calculates exactly the perturbed spectrum of two interacting rovibration bands according to this model, the results being presented directly by a graph plotter connected to the computer. This has been used to interpret perturbations observed in two pairs of interacting fundamentals in the spectrum of CH3F (ν2 - ν5 and ν3 - ν6) and one pair in CD3Cl (ν2 - ν5). The resulting analysis of the observed spectrum leads to new values for some vibration-rotation interaction constants and also leads to a unique determination of the sign relationship between the dipole moment derivatives in each pair of interacting normal vibrations. These sign relations are summarized in Figs. 8, 12, and 15.

Vibration-rotation spectra of CH3F

Rotational structure has been resolved and analyzed in the 1049-cm−1 parallel fundamental and the 1182 cm−1 perpendicular fundamental bands in the infrared spectrum of the CH3F molecule. Combination bands at 2223 cm−1 and around 2650 cm−1 have also been studied. The effective resolving power of the spectrometer was 0.25 cm−1 for all these bands. The two long-wavelength fundamentals have been analyzed in much greater detail than in previous work, and a complete analysis of the perpendicular band has been made, including the J-structure in the P and R branches of the sub-bands. Rotational constants of CH3F determined in this work and elsewhere are summarized in Table XIII of the text. Some anomalous intensity perturbations in the rotation lines of the 1182-cm−1 fundamental have been observed, and are discussed.

High resolution photoacoustic overtone spectroscopy of monofluoroacetylene, HCCF, with a titanium:sapphire ring laser

Intracavity photoacoustic overtone spectrum of monofluoroacetylene, HCCF, has been recorded in the wave number region 10 750–14 500 cm−1 with a titanium:sapphire ring laser. The spectrum contains many dense vibration–rotation band systems which can be resolved with Doppler limited resolution. Altogether 58 individual overtone bands have been analyzed rotationally. Many of the observed bands show perturbations of which some have been attributed to anharmonic resonance interactions. A Fermi resonance model based on conventional rectilinear normal coordinate theory has been used to assign vibrationally bands from this work and from earlier studies. Many of the observed vibrational term values and rotational constants can be reproduced well with this model. The results show the importance of the Fermi resonance interactions at the high overtone excitations.

Can 4D-Var use dynamical information from targeted observations of a baroclinic structure?

Targeted observations are generally taken in regions of high baroclinicity, but often show little impact. One plausible explanation is that important dynamical information, such as upshear tilt, is not extracted from the targeted observations by the data assimilation scheme and used to correct initial condition error. This is investigated by generating pseudo targeted observations which contain a singular vector (SV) structure that is not present in the background field or routine observations, i.e. assuming that the background has an initial condition error with tilted growing structure. Experiments were performed for a single case-study with varying numbers of pseudo targeted observations. These were assimilated by the Met Office four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation scheme, which uses a 6 h window for observations and background-error covariances calculated using the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) method. The forecasts were run using the operational Met Office Unified Model on a 24 km grid. The results presented clearly demonstrate that a 6 h window 4D-Var system is capable of extracting baroclinic information from a limited set of observations and using it to correct initial condition error. To capture the SV structure well (projection of 0.72 in total energy), 50 sondes over an area of 1×106 km2 were required. When the SV was represented by only eight sondes along an example targeting flight track covering a smaller area, the projection onto the SV structure was lower; the resulting forecast perturbations showed an SV structure with increased tilt and reduced initial energy. The total energy contained in the perturbations decreased as the SV structure was less well described by the set of observations (i.e. as fewer pseudo observations were assimilated). The assimilated perturbation had lower energy than the SV unless the pseudo observations were assimilated with the dropsonde observation errors halved from operational values. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Transient teleconnection event at the onset of a planet-encircling dust storm on Mars

We use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to study a transient teleconnection event at the onset of the 2001 planet-encircling dust storm on Mars, in terms of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). There are several differences between this and previous studies of atmospheric events using EOFs. First, instead of using a single variable such as surface pressure or geopotential height on a given pressure surface, we use a dataset describing the evolution in time of global and fully three-dimensional atmospheric fields such as horizontal velocity and temperature. These fields are produced by assimilating Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft into a Mars general circulation model. We use total atmospheric energy (TE) as a physically meaningful quantity which weights the state variables. Second, instead of adopting the EOFs to define teleconnection patterns as planetary-scale correlations that explain a large portion of long time-scale variability, we use EOFs to understand transient processes due to localised heating perturbations that have implications for the atmospheric circulation over distant regions. The localised perturbation is given by anomalous heating due to the enhanced presence of dust around the northern edge of the Hellas Planitia basin on Mars. We show that the localised disturbance is seemingly restricted to a small number (a few tens) of EOFs. These can be classified as low-order, transitional, or high-order EOFs according to the TE amount they explain throughout the event. Despite the global character of the EOFs, they show the capability of accounting for the localised effects of the perturbation via the presence of specific centres of action. We finally discuss possible applications for the study of terrestrial phenomena with similar characteristics.

Instability of surface-temperature filaments in strain and shear

The effects of uniform straining and shearing on the stability of a surface quasi-geostrophic temperature filament are investigated. Straining is shown to stabilize perturbations for wide filaments but only for a finite time until the filament thins to a critical width, after which some perturbations can grow. No filament can be stabilized in practice, since there are perturbations that can grow large for any strain rate. The optimally growing perturbations, defined as solutions that reach a certain threshold amplitude first, are found numerically for a wide range of parameter values. The radii of the vortices formed through nonlinear roll-up are found to be proportional to θ/s, where θ is the temperature anomaly of the filament and s the strain rate, and are not dependent on the initial size of the filament. Shearing is shown to reduce the normal-mode growth rates, but it cannot stabilize them completely when there are temperature discontinuities in the basic state; smooth filaments can be stabilized completely by shearing and a simple scaling argument provides the shear rate required. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31mWm-2) compared to SHIP (24 mWm-2) and AIR (17 mWm-2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(±13)(one standard deviation) mWm-2) and AIR (+6(±5) mWm-2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(±10) mWm-2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

Autopoietic organization of firm: an illustration for the construction industry

Generally poor productivity, delays, low profitability and exceeded budgets are Common problems in modern construction management, however it seems that a basic obstacle lies far deeper in the understanding of a firm's fundamental mission, its existence. The main objective of this paper therefore is to examine the operational living of a construction firm and by doing that to reveal the key problem or the solution for a construction firm - its organization. A firm as a social system in which interactions between its constitutive components (employees) are surordinated to its maintenance (keeping a system alive) is an autopoietic social system. Two domains of external perturbations are uncovered to which a construction firm has to adapt (market driven and project driven perturbations). Constructed conceptual model of an autopoietic organization is based upon two necessary and sufficient operational domains that a firm has to create in order to become an autopoietic, adaptive social system. The first one is a domain of interactions between employees and other operationally external systems, which is representing an idea-generating domain of interactions. The second is employee's autonomous operational domain, which embodies employee's autonomy and individuality and represents a necessary condition for the establishment of an idea-generating domain. Finally, it is recognized that interactions within these four domains keep a construction firm alive.

Response of plant-pollinator communities to fire: changes in diversity, abundance and floral reward structure

Globally, plant-pollinator communities are subject to a diverse array of perturbations and in many temperate and semi-arid systems fire is a dominant structuring force. We present a novel and highly integrated approach, which quantifies, in parallel, the response to fire of pollinator communities, floral communities and floral reward structure. Mt Carmel, Israel is a recognised bee-flower biodiversity hotspot, and using a chronosequence of habitats with differing post-fire ages, we follow the changes in plant-pollinator community organisation from immediately following a burn until full regeneration of vegetation. Initially, fire has a catastrophic effect on these communities, however, recovery is rapid with a peak in diversity of both flowers and bees in the first 2 years post-fire, followed by a steady decline over the next 50 years. The regeneration of floral communities is closely matched by that of their principal pollinators. At the community level we quantify, per unit area of habitat, key parameters of nectar and pollen forage known to be of importance in structuring pollinator communities. Nectar Volume, nectar water content, nectar concentration and the diversity of nectar foraging niches are all greatest immediately following fire with a steady decrease as regeneration proceeds. Temporal changes in energy availability for nectar, pollen, total energy (nectar + pollen) and relative importance of pollen to nectar energy show a similar general decline with site age, however, the pattern is less clear owing to the highly patchy distribution of floral resources. Changes in floral reward structure reflect the general shift from annuals (generally low-reward open access flowers) to perennials (mostly high-reward and restricted access flowers) as post-fire regeneration ensues. The impact of fire on floral communities and their associated rewards have clear implications for pollinator community structure and we discuss this and the role of other disturbance factors on these systems.

The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Nuclear magnetic resonance structure of the N-terminal domain of nonstructural protein 3 from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus

This paper describes the structure determination of nsp3a, the N-terminal domain of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) nonstructural protein 3. nsp3a exhibits a ubiquitin-like globular fold of residues 1 to 112 and a flexibly extended glutamic acid-rich domain of residues 113 to 183. In addition to the four beta-strands and two alpha-helices that are common to ubiquitin-like folds, the globular domain of nsp3a contains two short helices representing a feature that has not previously been observed in these proteins. Nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shift perturbations showed that these unique structural elements are involved in interactions with single-stranded RNA. Structural similarities with proteins involved in various cell-signaling pathways indicate possible roles of nsp3a in viral infection and persistence.