Reconciling observed and modelled phytoplankton dynamics in a major lowland UK river system, the Thames

This study aims to elucidate the key mechanisms controlling phytoplankton growth and decay within the Thames basin through the application of a modified version of an established river-algal model and comparison with observed stream water chlorophyll-a concentrations. The River Thames showed a distinct simulated phytoplankton seasonality and behaviour having high spring, moderate summer and low autumn chlorophyll-a concentrations. Three main sections were identified along the River Thames with different phytoplankton abundance and seasonality: (i) low chlorophyll-a concentrations from source to Newbridge; (ii) steep concentration increase between Newbridge and Sutton; and (iii) high concentrations with a moderate increase in concentration from Sutton to the end of the study area (Maidenhead). However, local hydrologic (e.g. locks) and other conditions (e.g. radiation, water depth, grazer dynamics, etc.) affected the simulated growth and losses. The model achieved good simulation results during both calibration and testing through a range of hydrological and nutrient conditions. Simulated phytoplankton growth was controlled predominantly by residence time, but during medium–low flow periods available light, water temperature and herbivorous grazing defined algal community development. These results challenge the perceived importance of in-stream nutrient concentrations as the perceived primary control on phytoplankton growth and death.

Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM

Secular trends of daily precipitation characteristics are considered in the transient climate change experiment with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM4/OPYC3 for 1900-2099. The climate forcing is due to increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mean daily precipitation, precipitation intensity, probability of wet days and parameters of the gamma distribution are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the changes of heavy precipitation, Analysis of the annual mean precipitation trends for 1900-1999 revealed general agreement with observations with significant positive trends in mean precipitation over continental areas. In the 2000-2099 period precipitation trend patterns followed the tendency obtained for 1900-1999 but with significantly increased magnitudes. Unlike the annual mean precipitation trends for which negative values were found for some continental areas, the mean precipitation intensity and scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution increased over all land territories . Negative trends in the number of wet days were found over most of the land areas except high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The shape parameter of the gamma distribution in general revealed a slight negative trend in the areas of the precipitation increase. Investigation of daily precipitation revealed an unproportional increase of heavy precipitation events for the land areas including local maxima in Europe and the eastern United States.

Chapter 4: Simulation of reaction injection moulding

Reaction Injection Moulding is a technology that enables the rapid production of complex plastic parts directly from a mixture of two reactive materials of low viscosity. The reactants are mixed in specific quantities and injected into a mould. This process allows large complex parts to be produced without the need for high clamping pressures. This chapter explores the simulation of the complex processes involved in reaction injection moulding. The reaction processes mean that the dynamics of the material in the mould are in constant evolution and an effective model which takes full account of these changing dynamics is introduced and incorporated in to finite element procedures, which are able to provide a complete simulation of the cycle of mould filling and subsequent curing.

Infrared dynamics of decaying two-dimensional turbulence governed by the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima equation

The low wave number range of decaying turbulence governed by the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima (CHM) equation is examined theoretically and by direct numerical simulation. Here, the low wave number range is defined as values of the wave number k below the wave number kE corresponding to the peak of the energy spectrum, or alternatively the centroid wave number of the energy spectrum. The energy spectrum in the low wave number range in the infrared regime (k →0) is theoretically derived to be E(k) ∼k5, using a quasinormal Markovianized model of the CHM equation. This result is verified by direct numerical simulation of the CHM equation. The wave number triads (k,p,q) responsible for the formation of the low wave number spectrum are also examined. It is found that the energy flux Π(k) for k< kE can be entirely expressed by Π(-)(k), which is the total net input of energy to wave numbers k. Furthermore, the contribution of nonlocal triad interactions to the energy flux is found to be predominant in the range log (k/kE)<-0.5, where the nonlocal interactions are defined to be those triad interactions for which the ratio of the largest leg of the triad to the smallest leg is larger than four. ©2001 The Physical Society of Japan

An easily implemented agro-hydrological procedure with dynamic root simulation for water transfer in the crop-soil system: validation and application

Models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are key components of agro-hydrological models for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide practices. Many of the hydrological models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are either too approximate due to oversimplified algorithms or employ complex numerical schemes. In this paper we developed a simple and sufficiently accurate algorithm which can be easily adopted in agro-hydrological models for the simulation of water dynamics. We used a dual crop coefficient approach proposed by the FAO for estimating potential evaporation and transpiration, and a dynamic model for calculating relative root length distribution on a daily basis. In a small time step of 0.001 d, we implemented algorithms separately for actual evaporation, root water uptake and soil water content redistribution by decoupling these processes. The Richards equation describing soil water movement was solved using an integration strategy over the soil layers instead of complex numerical schemes. This drastically simplified the procedures of modeling soil water and led to much shorter computer codes. The validity of the proposed model was tested against data from field experiments on two contrasting soils cropped with wheat. Good agreement was achieved between measurement and simulation of soil water content in various depths collected at intervals during crop growth. This indicates that the model is satisfactory in simulating water transfer in the crop-soil system, and therefore can reliably be adopted in agro-hydrological models. Finally we demonstrated how the developed model could be used to study the effect of changes in the environment such as lowering the groundwater table caused by the construction of a motorway on crop transpiration. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A continuum anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics

We develop the essential ingredients of a new, continuum and anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics designed for eventual use in climate simulation. These ingredients are a constitutive law for sea-ice stress, relating stress to the material properties of sea ice and to internal variables describing the sea-ice state, and equations describing the evolution of these variables. The sea-ice cover is treated as a densely flawed two-dimensional continuum consisting of a uniform field of thick ice that is uniformly permeated with narrow linear regions of thinner ice called leads. Lead orientation, thickness and width distributions are described by second-rank tensor internal variables: the structure, thickness and width tensors, whose dynamics are governed by corresponding evolution equations accounting for processes such as new lead generation and rotation as the ice cover deforms. These evolution equations contain contractions of higher-order tensor expressions that require closures. We develop a sea-ice stress constitutive law that relates sea-ice stress to the structure tensor, thickness tensor and strain rate. For the special case of empty leads (containing no ice), linear closures are adopted and we present calculations for simple shear, convergence and divergence.

The impact of sea ice dynamics on the Arctic climate system

Five paired global climate model experiments, one with an ice pack that only responds thermodynamically (TI) and one including sea-ice dynamics (DI), were used to investigate the sensitivity of Arctic climates to sea-ice motion. The sequence of experiments includes situations in which the Arctic was both considerably colder (Glacial Inception, ca 115,000 years ago) and considerably warmer (3 × CO2) than today. Sea-ice motion produces cooler anomalies year-round than simulations without ice dynamics, resulting in reduced Arctic warming in warm scenarios and increased Arctic cooling in cold scenarios. These changes reflect changes in atmospheric circulation patterns: the DI simulations favor outflow of Arctic air and sea ice into the North Atlantic by promoting cyclonic circulation centered over northern Eurasia, whereas the TI simulations favor southerly inflow of much warmer air from the North Atlantic by promoting cyclonic circulation centered over Greenland. The differences between the paired simulations are sufficiently large to produce different vegetation cover over >19% of the land area north of 55°N, resulting in changes in land-surface characteristics large enough to have an additional impact on climate. Comparison of the DI and TI experiments for the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) with paleovegetation reconstructions suggests the incorporation of sea-ice dynamics yields a more realistic simulation of high-latitude climates. The spatial pattern of sea-ice anomalies in the warmer-than-modern DI experiments strongly resembles the observed Arctic Ocean sea-ice dipole structure in recent decades, consistent with the idea that greenhouse warming is already impacting the high-northern latitudes.

A simulation of the last glacial maximum climate using the NCAR-CCSM

The National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) is used in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21,000 years ago) climate. In the tropics, the simulation shows a moderate cooling of 3 °C over land and 2 °C in the ocean in zonal average. This cooling is about 1 °C cooler than the CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but consistent with recent estimates of both land and sea surface temperature changes. Subtropical waters are cooled by 2–2.5 °C, also in agreement with recent estimates. The simulated oceanic thermohaline circulation at the LGM is not only shallower but also weaker than the modern with a migration of deep-water formation site in the North Atlantic as suggested by the paleoceanographic evidences. The simulated northward flow of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is enhanced. These deep circulation changes are attributable to the increased surface density flux in the Southern Ocean caused by sea-ice expansion at the LGM. Both the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are intensified due to the overall increase of wind stress over the subtropical oceans. The intensified zonal wind stress and southward shift of its maximum in the Southern Ocean effectively enhances the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) by more than 50%. Simulated SSTs are lowered by up to 8 °C in the midlatitudes. Simulated conditions in the North Atlantic are warmer and with less sea-ice than indicated by CLIMAP again, in agreement with more recent estimates. The increased meridional SST gradient at the LGM results in an enhanced Hadley Circulation and increased midlatitude storm track precipitation. The increased baroclinic storm activity also intensifies the meridional atmospheric heat transport. A sensitivity experiment shows that about half of the simulated tropical cooling at the LGM originates from reduced atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling of the air movement in an environmental test chamber with a respiring manikin

In recent years, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely used as a method of simulating airflow and addressing indoor environment problems. The complexity of airflows within the indoor environment would make experimental investigation difficult to undertake and also imposes significant challenges on turbulence modelling for flow prediction. This research examines through CFD visualization how air is distributed within a room. Measurements of air temperature and air velocity have been performed at a number of points in an environmental test chamber with a human occupant. To complement the experimental results, CFD simulations were carried out and the results enabled detailed analysis and visualization of spatial distribution of airflow patterns and the effect of different parameters to be predicted. The results demonstrate the complexity of modelling human exhalation within a ventilated enclosure and shed some light into how to achieve more realistic predictions of the airflow within an occupied enclosure.

Molecular dynamics study on the equilibrium magnetization properties and structure of ferrofluids

We investigate in detail the initial susceptibility, magnetization curves, and microstructure of ferrofluids in various concentration and particle dipole moment ranges by means of molecular dynamics simulations. We use the Ewald summation for the long-range dipolar interactions, take explicitly into account the translational and rotational degrees of freedom, coupled to a Langevin thermostat. When the dipolar interaction energy is comparable with the thermal energy, the simulation results on the magnetization properties agree with the theoretical predictions very well. For stronger dipolar couplings, however, we find systematic deviations from the theoretical curves. We analyze in detail the observed microstructure of the fluids under different conditions. The formation of clusters is found to enhance the magnetization at weak fields and thus leads to a larger initial susceptibility. The influence of the particle aggregation is isolated by studying ferro-solids, which consist of magnetic dipoles frozen in at random locations but which are free to rotate. Due to the artificial suppression of clusters in ferrosolids the observed susceptibility is considerably lowered when compared to ferrofluids.

Computer simulation study of equilibrium properties of magnetic dipolar fluids

Langevin dynamics simulations are used to investigate the equilibrium magnetization properties and structure of magnetic dipolar fluids. The influence of using different boundary conditions are systematically studied. Simulation results on the initial susceptibility and magnetization curves are compared with theoretical predictions. The effect of particle aggregation is discussed in detail by performing a cluster analysis of the microstructure.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulation for 6000 years B.P. and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO2 concentration was pre-industrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate “anomalies” (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 °N north (to 18 °N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks.

Polymer brushes under shear: molecular dynamics simulations compared to experiments

Surfaces coated with polymer brushes in a good solvent are known to exhibit excellent tribological properties. We have performed coarse-grained equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate dextran polymer brushes in an aqueous environment in molecular detail. In a first step, we determined simulation parameters and units by matching experimental results for a single dextran chain. Analyzing this model when applied to a multichain system, density profiles of end-tethered polymer brushes obtained from equilibrium MD simulations compare very well with expectations based on self-consistent field theory. Simulation results were further validated against and correlated with available experimental results. The simulated compression curves (normal force as a function of surface separation) compare successfully with results obtained with a surface forces apparatus. Shear stress (friction) obtained via nonequilibrium MD is contrasted with nanoscale friction studies employing colloidal-probe lateral force microscopy. We find good agreement in the hydrodynamic regime and explain the observed leveling-off of the friction forces in the boundary regime by means of an effective polymer–wall attraction.

Sea-breeze dynamics and convection initiation: the influence of convective parameterization in weather and climate model biases

There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis shows that, although the simulation with parameterized convection is able to reproduce the key rain-forming sea-breeze circulation, the parameterization is not able to respond realistically to the circulation. A feedback of errors also occurs: the convective parameterization causes rain to fall in the early morning, which cools and wets the boundary layer, reducing the land–sea temperature contrast and weakening the sea breeze. This is, however, an effect of the convective bias, rather than a cause of it. Improvements to how and when convection schemes trigger convection will improve both the timing and location of tropical rainfall and representation of sea-breeze circulations.