Goodbye to all that: on small wars and big choices

This article reflects on a decade of British counterinsurgency operations. Questioning the idea that lessons have been learnt, the paper challenges the assumptions that are being used to frame future strategic choice. Suggesting that defence engagement is primarily focused on optimising overseas interventions while avoiding a deeper strategic reassessment about whether the UK should be undertaking these sorts of activities, the article calls for a proper debate on Britain's national security interests.

The lake-dwellings in Holderness, East Yorkshire, revisited: a journey into antiquarian and contemporary wetland archaeology

The story presented in this paper began in the 1880s with the discovery of five unusual wet sites in the low-lying region of Holderness, East Yorkshire, during drainage works: West Furze, Round Hill, Barmston Drain, Gransmoor and Kelk (fig 1). The changing interpretation of the significance of these wet sites, from contemporary local accounts to their 'expert' publication early in the twentieth century (Smith 791I), contributed to the tale of the Holderness lake-dwellings, echoing the then already famous lake-dwellings of the Alpine region and elsewhere in Europe (Keller 1878). The tale of the Holderness lake-dwellings survived more recent work intact, as excavators approached the sites without challenging the preconception of these being genuine lake settlements (eg Varley 1968).

Managing change in complex projects: configuration management, asset information and big data

As we enter an era of ‘big data’, asset information is becoming a deliverable of complex projects. Prior research suggests digital technologies enable rapid, flexible forms of project organizing. This research analyses practices of managing change in Airbus, CERN and Crossrail, through desk-based review, interviews, visits and a cross-case workshop. These organizations deliver complex projects, rely on digital technologies to manage large data-sets; and use configuration management, a systems engineering approach with mid-20th century origins, to establish and maintain integrity. In them, configuration management has become more, rather than less, important. Asset information is structured, with change managed through digital systems, using relatively hierarchical, asynchronous and sequential processes. The paper contributes by uncovering limits to flexibility in complex projects where integrity is important. Challenges of managing change are discussed, considering the evolving nature of configuration management; potential use of analytics on complex projects; and implications for research and practice.

The ecological impact of conquest and colonization on a medieval frontier landscape: combined palynological and geochemical analysis of lake sediments from Radzyń Chełminski, northern Poland

Slavic and German colonization of the southern Baltic between the 8th and 15th centuries A.D. is well-documented archaeologically and historically. Despite the large number of pollen profiles from Poland, few palaeoecological studies have examined the ecological impact of a process that was central to the expansion of European, Christian, societies. This study aims to redress this balance through multiproxy analysis of lake sediments from Radzyń Chełminski, Northern Poland, using pollen, element geochemistry (Inductively Coupled-Optical Emission Spectroscopy [ICP-OES]), organic content, and magnetic susceptibility. The close association between lake and medieval settlements presents the ideal opportunity to reconstruct past vegetation and land-use dynamics within a well-documented archaeological, historical, and cultural context. Three broad phases of increasing landscape impact are visible in the pollen and geochemical data dating from the 8th/9th, 10th/11th, and 13th centuries, reflecting successive phases of Slavic and German colonization. This involved the progressive clearance of oak-hornbeam dominated woodland and the development of an increasingly open agricultural landscape. Although the castles and towns of the Teutonic Order remain the most visible signs of medieval colonization, the palynological and geochemical data demonstrate that the major phase of woodland impact occurred during the preceding phase of Slavic expansion; Germans colonists were entering a landscape already significantly altered.

An evaluation of the simulated water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa at 6000 yr B.P. using lake status data

Changes in the water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa in response to insolation forcing at 6000 y BP simulated by five atmospheric general circulation models have been compared with observations of changes in lake status. All of the simulations show enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon and of the high pressure cells over the Pacific and Central Asia and the Middle East, causing wetter conditions in northern India and southern China and drier conditions along the Chinese coast and west of the monsoon core. All of the models show enhancement of the African monsoon, causing wetter conditions in the zone between ca 10–20 °N. Four of the models show conditions wetter than present in southern Europe and drier than present in northern Europe. Three of the models show conditions similar to present in the mid-latitude continental interior, while the remaining models show conditions somewhat drier than present. The extent and location of each of the simulated changes varies between the models, as does the mechanism producing these changes. The lake data confirm some features of the simulations, but indicate discrepancies between observed and simulated climates. For example, the data show: (1) conditions wetter than present in central Asia, from India to northern China and Mongolia, indicating that the simulated Asian monsoon expansion is too small; (2) conditions wetter than present between ca. 10–30 °N in Africa, indicating that the simulated African monsoon expansion is too small; (3) that northern Europe was drier, but the area of significantly drier conditions was more localized (around the Baltic) than shown in the simulations; (4) that southern Europe was wetter than present, apparently consistent with the simulations, but pollen data suggest that this reflects an increase in summer rainfall whereas the models show winter precipitation, and (5) that the mid-latitude continental interior was generally wetter than present.

Late Quaternary lake-level record from northern Eurasia

Lake records from northern Eurasia show regionally coherent patterns of changes during the late Quaternary. Lakes peripheral to the Scandinavian ice sheet were lower than those today but lakes in the Mediterranean zone were high at the glacial maximum, reflecting the dominance of glacial anticyclonic conditions in northern Europe and a southward shift of the Westerlies. The influence of the glacial anticyclonic circulation attenuated through the late glacial period, and the Westerlies gradually shifted northward, such that drier conditions south of the ice sheet were confined to a progressively narrower zone and the Mediterranean became drier. The early Holocene shows a gradual shift to conditions wetter than present in central Asia, associated with the expanded Asian monsoon, and in the Mediterranean, in response to local, monsoon-type circulation. There is no evidence of mid-continental aridity in northern Eurasia during the mid-Holocene. In contrast, the circum-Baltic region was drier, reflecting the increased incidence of blocking anticyclones centered on Scandinavia in summer. There is a gradual transition to modern conditions after ca. 5000 yr B.P. Although these broad-scale patterns are interrupted by shorter term fluctuations, the long-term trends in lake behavior show a clear response to changes in insolation and glaciation.

Holocene changes in atmospheric circulation patterns as shown by lake status changes in northern Europe

Changes in lake status, a measure of relative water depth or lake level, have been reconstructed from geological and biological evidence for 87 sites in northern Europe. During the early Holocene. the lakes show conditions similar to or drier than present in a broad band across southern Britain, southern Scandinavia and into the eastern Baltic and wetter conditions along the west coast and in central Europe. This pattern is consistent with the effects of a glacial anticyclone over the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, namely enhanced southwesterly flow along the west coast and strengthened easterlies south of the ice. After c, 8000 BP a different lake status pattern was established. with conditions drier than present over much of northern Europe. Lakes higher than today were confined to the far north, the west coast, eastern Finland and western Russia. This pattern gradually attenuated after 4000 BP. Differences in lake status during the mid- to late Holocene are consistent with a strengthening of the blocking anticyclone over the Baltic Sea in summer. resulting in more meridional circulation than today. This strengthening of the blocking anticyclone during the mid-Holocene is interpreted as a consequence of insolation changes, enhanced by the fact that the Baltic Sea was larger than present.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.

Big data architecture for pervasive healthcare: a literature review

Pervasive healthcare aims to deliver deinstitutionalised healthcare services to patients anytime and anywhere. Pervasive healthcare involves remote data collection through mobile devices and sensor network which the data is usually in large volume, varied formats and high frequency. The nature of big data such as volume, variety, velocity and veracity, together with its analytical capabilities com-plements the delivery of pervasive healthcare. However, there is limited research in intertwining these two domains. Most research focus mainly on the technical context of big data application in the healthcare sector. Little attention has been paid to a strategic role of big data which impacts the quality of healthcare services provision at the organisational level. Therefore, this paper delivers a conceptual view of big data architecture for pervasive healthcare via an intensive literature review to address the aforementioned research problems. This paper provides three major contributions: 1) identifies the research themes of big data and pervasive healthcare, 2) establishes the relationship between research themes, which later composes the big data architecture for pervasive healthcare, and 3) sheds a light on future research, such as semiosis and sense-making, and enables practitioners to implement big data in the pervasive healthcare through the proposed architecture.