Evaluating the legacies of state-building: success, failure, and the role of responsibility

What impact do international state-building missions have on the domestic politics of states they seek to build, and how can we measure this impact with confidence? This article seeks to address these questions and challenge some existing approaches that often appear to assume that state-builders leave lasting legacies rather than demonstrating such influence with the use of carefully chosen empirical evidence. Too often, domestic conditions that follow in the wake of international state-building are assumed to follow as a result of international intervention, usually due to insufficient attention to the causal processes that link international actions to domestic outcomes. The article calls for greater appreciation of the methodological challenges to establishing causal inferences regarding the legacies of state-building and identifies three qualitative methodological strategies—process tracing, counterfactual analysis, and the use of control cases—that can be used to improve confidence in causal claims about state-building legacies. The article concludes with a case study of international state-building in East Timor, highlighting several flaws of existing evaluations of the United Nations' role in East Timor and identifying the critical role that domestic actors play even in the context of authoritative international intervention

Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution

Understanding the surface O3 response over a “receptor” region to emission changes over a foreign “source” region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale “import sensitivity” as the ratio of the O3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus “domestic” (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7–0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8–1.6 ppb). High O3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-h average O3 above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10–20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O3 of about 0.1 ppb a−1, at the low end of the 0.1–0.5 ppb a−1 derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O3 response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NOx, NMVOC, and CO emissions from the foreign source region.

The accuracy of students' predictions of their GCSE grades

The paper reports a study that investigated the relationship between students’ self-predicted and actual General Certificate of Secondary Education results in order to establish the extent of over- and under-prediction and whether this varies by subject and across genders and socio-economic groupings. It also considered the relationship between actual and predicted attainment and attitudes towards going to university. The sample consisted of 109 young people in two schools being followed up from an earlier study. Just over 50% of predictions were accurate and students were much more likely to over-predict than to under-predict. Most errors of prediction were only one grade out and may reflect examination unreliability as well as student misperceptions. Girls were slightly less likely than boys to over-predict but there were no differences associated with social background. Higher levels of attainment, both actual and predicted, were strongly associated with positive attitudes to university. Differences between predictions and results are likely to reflect examination errors as well as pupil errors. There is no evidence that students from more advantaged social backgrounds over-estimate themselves compared with other students, although boys over-estimate themselves compared with girls.

Inferring animal husbandry strategies in coastal zones through stable isotope analysis: new evidence from the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium, 1st-15th century AD)

In a proof-of-concept study, Britton et al. (2008) demonstrated that the isotopic composition of halophytic plants can be traced in the skeletal tissues of their animal consumers. Here we apply the method to domestic herbivore remains (n = 303) from nine archaeological sites in or near the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium), where, prior to embankments, salt-marshes offered extensive pasture grounds for domestic herbivores. The sites span a period of ∼1500 years (Roman to late medieval period), during which the coastal landscape was progressively transformed from little managed wetlands to a fully embanked polder area. The bulk collagen data show variations between sites and over time, which are consistent with this historical framework and are interpreted as reflecting environmental change and differences in animal management in the coastal plain throughout the late Holocene. The study demonstrates the immense value of faunal stable isotope analysis for characterising coastal husbandry strategies beyond the means of traditional zooarchaeological techniques.

Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting.

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non-experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Half-remembered quotations from mostly forgotten speeches: the limits of Labour’s European policy discourse

This article uses discourse analysis to study the continuities in British foreign policy thinking within the Labour party from the 1960s to the present day. Using representative extracts from speeches by Hugh Gaitskell, Harold Wilson, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, it identifies the ideational consis- tencies in the leaders’ attitudes to: Empire; federalism in the EEC/EU; and laying down conditions that have to be met before any constructive engagement with ‘Europe’ can be countenanced. We argue that these consistencies, spanning a 50-year period, exemplify a certain stagnation both within Labour’s European discourses and within British foreign policy thinking more widely. We develop the idea that Labour party thinking has been crucially framed by both small ‘c’ conser- vative and upper-case Conservative ideology, popularised by Winston Churchill in his ‘three circles’ model of British foreign policy.

Information and punitiveness: trial reconstruction in Ireland

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a rape trial reconstruction in Ireland. Design/methodology/approach – A studio audience of 100 members of the Irish public were selected to attend a TV programme by the Republic of Ireland’s national broadcasting organisation. This involved the examination of the sentencing of a rape case. The audience’s sentencing preferences were measured at the outset, when they had been given only summary information about the case, and later, when full details had been disclosed. Findings – Previous research examining changes in public attitudes to crime and punishment has shown that deliberation, including the provision of new information and discussion with others and experts, tends to decrease public punitiveness and increase public leniency towards sentencing. An experiment in Ireland, however, showed that providing information does not invariably and necessarily moderate punitive attitudes. This paper presents the results, and offers some explanations for the anomalous outcome. Research limitations/implications – The pre/post design, in which the audience served as their own controls, is a weak one, and participants may have responded to what they took to be the agenda of the producers. Due to the quality of the sample, the results may not be generalisable to the broader Irish population. Practical implications – Policy makers should recognise that the public is not uniformly punitive for all crimes. There is good research evidence to show that the apparent public appetite for tough punishment is illusory, and is a function of the way that polls measure public attitudes to punishment. Sentencers and those responsible for sentencing policy would benefit from a fuller understanding of the sorts of cases which illicit strong punitive responses from the public, and the reasons for this response. However any such understanding should not simply translate into responsiveness to the public’s punitive sentiments – where these exist. Innovative survey methods – like this experiment – which attempt to look beyond the top-of-the-head opinions by providing information and opportunities for deliberation should be welcomed and used more widely. Originality/value – There have been limited research studies which reports factors which may increase punitiveness through the provision of information and deliberation.

Auf dem Prüfstein: Die Umgangsweise der japanischen Regierung mit der Todesstrafe

This paper examines public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan, and explores the validity of claims about »majority public support« that have been used by the Japanese government to justify retention. This is done by analyzing three public perception surveys on the legitimacy of the Japanese death penalty system. This paper criticizes the Japanese government for accepting its own survey results, which, at face value, appear to show support for the death penalty; moreover, it concludes that the Japanese public would likely endorse the abolition of the death penalty without damaging the legitimacy of state institutions.

Individual differences in early language learning: a study of English learners of French

The present longitudinal study examines the interaction of learner variables (gender, motivation, self-efficacy and first language literacy) and their influence on second language learning outcomes. The study follows English learners of French from Year 5 in primary school (aged 9-10) to the first year in secondary school (Year 7 aged 11-12). Language outcomes were measured by two oral production tasks; a sentence repetition task and a photo description task both of which were administered at three time points. Longitudinal data on learner attitudes and motivation were collected via questionnaires. Teacher assessment data for general first language literacy attainment were also provided. The results show a great deal of variation in learner attitudes and outcomes and that there is a complex relationship between first language literacy, self-efficacy, gender and attainment. For example, in general, girls held more positive attitudes to boys and were more successful. However, the inclusion of first language ability, which explained 30-40% of variation, shows that gender differences in attitudes and outcomes are likely mediated by first language literacy and prior learning experience.

世論という神話―望むのは「死刑」ですか？’ (Public opinion myth: is ‘death’ what we really want?)

This paper summarises Mai Sato's recent report on public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan.

Training to address attitudes and behaviour of rural bank managers in Madhya Pradesh, India: A programme to facilitate financial inclusion

Given their physical presence in India, banks are arguably well-placed to improve financial inclusion in rural areas. However, uncertain repayment capacities and high transaction costs mean formal financial institutions are often reluctant to lend to the rural poor. Conversely, high transaction costs in dealing with banks are also incurred by clients, through, for example, lengthy, cumbersome and potentially ignominious procedures. Negative attitudes towards poor clients can be an important component of such transaction costs. An applied research project funded by the Enterprise Development Innovation Fund (EDIF-DFID) developed an innovative training programme designed to encourage more positive attitudes of bank staff towards poor clients, and towards their own role in rural poverty alleviation and development. This paper examines the development of the training programme, its implementation, and the results of its evaluation. It is shown that training can bring about attitudinal change, which in turn is reflected in behaviour and social impact.

Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Consumer attitudes towards and willingness to pay for pesticide residue limit compliant 'safe' vegetables in Northeast Thailand

Pesticide residue in vegetables is a major food safety issue in Thailand. A range of vegetable products (organic/pesticide-free/ hydroponic) has emerged in Thai markets that guarantee compliance with maximum residue limits. The Government of Thailand is eager to extend the benefits of this suite of alternative vegetables to the entire population, particularly the semi-urban/rural segments that are often bypassed by such speciality products. However, little information is available to guide such an effort, particularly with regard to up-country consumer attitudes, shopping and consumption habits and willingness to pay premiums for such produce. This research aims to fill this gap in knowledge. It reports the results of a survey of vegetable consumption and shopping habits and attitudes of 608 consumers in northeast Thailand. Willingness to pay premiums for pesticide residue limit compliant vegetables is also assessed by using a contingent valuation method, and determinants of willingness to pay are examined using an ordered probit empirical model. Results indicate that, given adequate awareness of relative risks, even up-country consumers are willing to pay market premium levels for these products, and that inadequate availability, rather than lack of demand is the constraining factor. Willingness to pay is found to increase with income, age and supermarket sourcing of vegetables. We also discuss the challenge of improving availability at mainstream outlets.