Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Taxonomical vs. functional responses of bee communities to fire in two contrasting climatic regions

Valuable insights into mechanisms of community responses to environmental change can be gained by analysing in tandem the variation in functional and taxonomic composition along environmental gradients. We assess the changes in species and functional trait composition (i.e. dominant traits and functional diversity) of diverse bee communities in contrasting fire-driven systems in two climatic regions: Mediterranean (scrub habitats in Israel) and temperate (chestnut forests in southern Switzerland). In both climatic regions, there were shifts in species diversity and composition related to post-fire age. In the temperate region, functional composition responded markedly to fire; however, in the Mediterranean, the taxonomic response to fire was not matched by functional replacement. These results suggest that greater functional stability to fire in the Mediterranean is achieved by replacement of functionally similar species (i.e. functional redundancy) which dominate under different environmental conditions in the heterogeneous landscapes of the region. In contrast, the greater functional response in the temperate region was attributed to a more rapid post-fire vegetation recovery and shorter time-window when favourable habitat was available relative to the Mediterranean. Bee traits can be used to predict the functional responses of bee communities to environmental changes in habitats of conservation importance in different regions with distinct disturbance regimes. However, predictions cannot be generalized from one climatic region to another where distinct habitat configurations occur.

Prevalence and determinants of Cryptosporidium spp. infection in smallholder dairy cattle in Iringa and Tanga Regions of Tanzania

The prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. infection in a cross-sectional study of dairy cattle, from two contrasting dairying regions in Tanzania, were determined by staining smears of faecal samples with the modified Ziehl-Neelsen technique. Of the 1126 faecal samples screened, 19.7% were positive for Cr\yptosporidium spp. The prevalence was lower in Tanga Region than in Iringa Region. The prevalence of affected farms was 20% in Tanga and 21 % in Iringa. In both regions, the probability of detecting Cryptosporidium oocysts in faeces varied with animal class, but these were not consistent in both regions. In Tanga Region, Cryptosporidium oocysts were significantly more likely to be found in the faeces of milking cows. In Iringa Region, the likelihood that cattle had Cryptosporidium-positive faeces declined with age, and milking cattle were significantly less likely to have Cryptosporidium-positive faeces. In this region, 7% of cattle were housed within the family house at night, and this was marginally associated with a higher likelihood that animals had Ctyptosporidium-positive faeces. Our study suggests that even though herd sizes are small, Cryptosporidium spp. are endemic on many Tanzanian smallholder dairy farms. These protozoa may impact on animal health and production, but also on human health, given the close associations between the cattle and their keepers. Further studies are required to assess these risks in more detail, and understand the epidemiology of Cryptosporidium spp. in this management system.

Measuring bee diversity in different European habitats and biogeographical regions

Bee pollinators are currently recorded with many different sampling methods. However, the relative performances of these methods have not been systematically evaluated and compared. In response to the strong need to record ongoing shifts in pollinator diversity and abundance, global and regional pollinator initiatives must adopt standardized sampling protocols when developing large-scale and long-term monitoring schemes. We systematically evaluated the performance of six sampling methods (observation plots, pan traps, standardized and variable transect walks, trap nests with reed internodes or paper tubes) that are commonly used across a wide range of geographical regions in Europe and in two habitat types (agricultural and seminatural). We focused on bees since they represent the most important pollinator group worldwide. Several characteristics of the methods were considered in order to evaluate their performance in assessing bee diversity: sample coverage, observed species richness, species richness estimators, collector biases (identified by subunit-based rarefaction curves), species composition of the samples, and the indication of overall bee species richness (estimated from combined total samples). The most efficient method in all geographical regions, in both the agricultural and seminatural habitats, was the pan trap method. It had the highest sample coverage, collected the highest number of species, showed negligible collector bias, detected similar species as the transect methods, and was the best indicator of overall bee species richness. The transect methods were also relatively efficient, but they had a significant collector bias. The observation plots showed poor performance. As trap nests are restricted to cavity-nesting bee species, they had a naturally low sample coverage. However, both trap nest types detected additional species that were not recorded by any of the other methods. For large-scale and long-term monitoring schemes with surveyors with different experience levels, we recommend pan traps as the most efficient, unbiased, and cost-effective method for sampling bee diversity. Trap nests with reed internodes could be used as a complementary sampling method to maximize the numbers of collected species. Transect walks are the principal method for detailed studies focusing on plant-pollinator associations. Moreover, they can be used in monitoring schemes after training the surveyors to standardize their collection skills.

Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection

A number of authors have proposed clinical trial designs involving the comparison of several experimental treatments with a control treatment in two or more stages. At the end of the first stage, the most promising experimental treatment is selected, and all other experimental treatments are dropped from the trial. Provided it is good enough, the selected experimental treatment is then compared with the control treatment in one or more subsequent stages. The analysis of data from such a trial is problematic because of the treatment selection and the possibility of stopping at interim analyses. These aspects lead to bias in the maximum-likelihood estimate of the advantage of the selected experimental treatment over the control and to inaccurate coverage for the associated confidence interval. In this paper, we evaluate the bias of the maximum-likelihood estimate and propose a bias-adjusted estimate. We also propose an approach to the construction of a confidence region for the vector of advantages of the experimental treatments over the control based on an ordering of the sample space. These regions are shown to have accurate coverage, although they are also shown to be necessarily unbounded. Confidence intervals for the advantage of the selected treatment are obtained from the confidence regions and are shown to have more accurate coverage than the standard confidence interval based upon the maximum-likelihood estimate and its asymptotic standard error.

Chemical characterisation of wild populations of Thymus from different climatic regions in southeast Spain

Thymus is taxonomically a very complex genus with a high frequency of hybridisation and introgression among sympatric species. The variation in accumulation of leaf-surface flavonoids was investigated in 71 wild populations of Thymus front different putative hybrid swarm areas in Andalucia, Spain. Twenty-two flavones, five flavanones, two dihydroflavonols, a flavonol and two unknowns were detected by HPLC-DAD combined with LC-APCI-MS analysis. The majority of compounds were flavones with a lutelin-type substitution of the B-ring, in contrast to previous reports on Macedonian taxa, which predominantly accumulate flavones with apigenin-type substitution of the B-ring. Anatomical and morphometric studies, supported by cluster analysis, identified pure Thymus hyemalis and Thymus baeticus populations, and a large number of putative hybrids. Flavonoid variation was closely related to morphological variation in all populations and is suspected to be a result of genetic polymorphism. Principal component analysis identified the presence of species-specific and geographically linked chemotypes and putative hybrids with mixed morphological and chemical characteristics. Qualitative and quantitative flavonoid accumulation appears to be genetically regulated, while external factors play a secondary role. Flavonoid profiles can thus provide diagnostic markers for the taxonomy of Thymus and are also useful in detecting hybridising taxa. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the formation of necrotic regions in avascular tumours

The mechanisms underlying the formation of necrotic regions within avascular tumours are not well understood. In this paper, we examine the relative roles of nutrient deprivation and of cell death, from both the proliferating phase of the cell cycle via apoptosis and from the quiescent phase via necrosis, in changing the structure within multicellular tumour spheroids and particularly the accumulation of dead cell material in the centre. A mathematical model is presented and studied that accounts for nutrient diffusion, changes in cell cycling rates, the two different routes to cell death as well as active motion of cells and passive motion of the dead cell material. In studying the accumulation of dead cell matter we do not distinguish between the route by which each was formed. The resulting mathematical model is examined for a number of scenarios. Results show that in many cases the size of the necrotic core is closely correlated with low levels in nutrient concentration. However, in certain cases, particularly where the rate of necrosis is large, the resulting necrotic core can lead to regions of non-negligible nutrient concentration-dependent upon the mode of cell death.

Variation in 16S-23S rRNA intergenic spacer regions in Photobacterium damselae: a mosaic-like structure

Phenotypically, Photobacterium damselae subsp. piscicida and P. damselae subsp. damselae are easily distinguished. However, their 16S rRNA gene sequences are identical, and attempts to discriminate these two subspecies by molecular tools are hampered by their high level of DNA-DNA similarity. The 16S-23S rRNA internal transcribed spacers (ITS) were sequenced in two strains of Photobacterium damselae subsp. piscicida and two strains of P. damselae subsp. damselae to determine the level of molecular diversity in this DNA region. A total of 17 different ITS variants, ranging from 803 to 296 bp were found, some of which were subspecies or strain specific. The largest ITS contained four tRNA genes (tDNAs) coding for tRNA(Glu(UUC)), tRNA(LyS(UUU)), tRNA(Val(UAC)), and tRNA(Ala(GGC)). Five amplicons contained tRNA(Glu(UUC)) combined with two additional tRNA genes, including tRNA(Lys(UUU)), tRNA(Val(UAC)), or tRNA(Ala(UGC)). Five amplicons contained tRNA(Ile(GAU)) and tRNA(Ala(UGC)). Two amplicons contained tRNA(Glu(UUC)) and tRNA(Val(UGC)). Two different isoacceptor tRNA(Ala) genes (GGC and UGC anticodons) were found. The five smallest amplicons contained no tRNA genes. The tRNA-gene combinations tRNA(Glu(UUC)) -tRNA(Val(UAC)) -tRNA(Ala(UGC)) and tRNA(Glu(UUC)) -tRNA(Ala(UGC)) have not been previously reported in bacterial ITS regions. The number of copies of the ribosomal operon (rrn) in the P. damselae chromosome ranged from at least 9 to 12. For ITS variants coexisting in two strains of different subspecies or in strains of the same subspecies, nucleotide substitution percentages ranged from 0 to 2%. The main source of variation between ITS variants was due to different combinations of DNA sequence blocks, constituting a mosaic-like structure.

Motor brain regions are involved in the encoding of delayed intentions: a fMRI study

In studies of prospective memory, recall of the content of delayed intentions is normally excellent, probably because they contain actions that have to be enacted at a later time. Action words encoded for later enactment are more accessible from memory than those encoded for later verbal report [Freeman, J.E., and Ellis, J.A. 2003a. The representation of delayed intentions: A prospective subject-performed task? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 29, 976-992.]. As this higher assessibility is lost when the intended actions have to be enacted during encoding, or when a motor interference task is introduced concurrent to intention encoding, Freeman and Ellis suggested that the advantage of to-be-enacted actions is due to additional preparatory motor operations during encoding. Accordingly, in a fMRI study with 10 healthy young participants, we investigated whether motor brain regions are differentially activated during verbal encoding of actions for later enactment with the right hand in contrast to verbal encoding of actions for later verbal report. We included an additional condition of verbal encoding of abstract verbs for later verbal report to investigate whether the semantic motor information inherent in action verbs in contrast to abstract verbs activates motor brain regions different from those involved in the verbal encoding of actions for later enactment. Differential activation for the verbal encoding of to-be-enacted actions in contrast to to-be-reported actions was found in brain regions known to be involved in covert motor preparation for hand movements, i.e. the postcentral gyrus, the precuneus, the dorsal and ventral premotor cortex, the posterior middle temporal gyrus and the inferior parietal lobule. There was no overlap between these brain regions and those differentially activated during the verbal encoding of actions in contrast to abstract verbs for later verbal report. Consequently, the results of this fMRI study suggest the presence of preparatory motor operations during the encoding of delayed intentions requiring a future motor response, which cannot be attributed to semantic information inherent to action verbs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Gene expression profiling of human hibernating myocardium: Increased expression of B-type natriuretic peptide and proenkephalin in hypocontractile vs normally-contracting regions of the heart

A greater understanding of the molecular basis of hibernating myocardium may assist in identifying those patients who would most benefit from revascularization. Paired heart biopsies were taken from hypocontractile and normally-contracting myocardium (identified by cardiovascular magnetic resonance) from 6 patients with chronic stable angina scheduled for bypass grafting. Gene expression profiles of hypocontractile and normally-contracting samples were compared using Affymetrix microarrays. The data for patients with confirmed hibernating myocardium were analysed separately and a different, though overlapping, set (up to 380) of genes was identified which may constitute a molecular fingerprint for hibernating myocardium. The expression of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was increased in hypocontractile relative to normally-contracting myocardium. The expression of BNP correlated most closely with the expression of proenkephalin and follistatin 3, which may constitute additional heart failure markers. Our data illustrate differential gene expression in hypocontractile and/hibernating myocardium relative to normally-contracting myocardium within individual human hearts. Changes in expression of these genes, including increased relative expression of natriuretic and other factors, may constitute a molecular signature for hypocontractile and/or hibernating myocardium.