Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Computationally efficient expressions for the collision efficiency between electrically charged aerosol particles and cloud droplets

A multiple factor parametrization is described to permit the efficient calculation of collision efficiency (E) between electrically charged aerosol particles and neutral cloud droplets in numerical models of cloud and climate. The four-parameter representation summarizes the results obtained from a detailed microphysical model of E, which accounts for the different forces acting on the aerosol in the path of falling cloud droplets. The parametrization's range of validity is for aerosol particle radii of 0.4 to 10 mu m, aerosol particle densities of I to 2.0 g cm(-3), aerosol particle charges from neutral to 100 elementary charges and drop radii from 18.55 to 142 mu m. The parametrization yields values of E well within an order of magnitude of the detailed model's values, from a dataset of 3978 E values. Of these values 95% have modelled to parametrized ratios between 0.5 and 1.5 for aerosol particle sizes ranging between 0.4 and 2.0 mu m, and about 96% in the second size range. This parametrization speeds up the calculation of E by a factor of similar to 10(3) compared with the original microphysical model, permitting the inclusion of electric charge effects in numerical cloud and climate models.