New-on-line method for water isotope analysis of speleothem fluid inclusions using laser absorption spectroscopy (WS-CRDS)

A new online method to analyse water isotopes of speleothem fluid inclusions using a wavelength scanned cavity ring down spectroscopy (WS-CRDS) instrument is presented. This novel technique allows us simultaneously to measure hydrogen and oxygen isotopes for a released aliquot of water. To do so, we designed a new simple line that allows the online water extraction and isotope analysis of speleothem samples. The specificity of the method lies in the fact that fluid inclusions release is made on a standard water background, which mainly improves the δ D robustness. To saturate the line, a peristaltic pump continuously injects standard water into the line that is permanently heated to 140 °C and flushed with dry nitrogen gas. This permits instantaneous and complete vaporisation of the standard water, resulting in an artificial water background with well-known δ D and δ18O values. The speleothem sample is placed in a copper tube, attached to the line, and after system stabilisation it is crushed using a simple hydraulic device to liberate speleothem fluid inclusions water. The released water is carried by the nitrogen/standard water gas stream directly to a Picarro L1102-i for isotope determination. To test the accuracy and reproducibility of the line and to measure standard water during speleothem measurements, a syringe injection unit was added to the line. Peak evaluation is done similarly as in gas chromatography to obtain &delta D; and δ18O isotopic compositions of measured water aliquots. Precision is better than 1.5 ‰ for δ D and 0.4 ‰ for δ18O for water measurements for an extended range (−210 to 0 ‰ for δ D and −27 to 0 ‰ for δ18O) primarily dependent on the amount of water released from speleothem fluid inclusions and secondarily on the isotopic composition of the sample. The results show that WS-CRDS technology is suitable for speleothem fluid inclusion measurements and gives results that are comparable to the isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) technique.

Forecasting elections

In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. In line with existing literature, we bias-correct opinion polls. We consider accuracy, bias and precision over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to provide the most precise forecasts and are similar in terms of bias to opinion polls. We find that our statistical model struggles to provide competitive forecasts, while expert opinion appears to be of value. Finally we note that the forecast horizon matters; whereas prediction market forecasts tend to improve the nearer an election is, opinion polls appear to perform worse, while expert opinion performs consistently throughout. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets.

English compound and non-compound processing in bilingual and multilingual speakers: effects of dominance and sequential multilingualism

This article reports on a study investigating the relative influence of the first and dominant language on L2 and L3 morpho-lexical processing. A lexical decision task compared the responses to English NV-er compounds (e.g., taxi driver) and non-compounds provided by a group of native speakers and three groups of learners at various levels of English proficiency: L1 Spanish-L2 English sequential bilinguals and two groups of early Spanish-Basque bilinguals with English as their L3. Crucially, the two trilingual groups differed in their first and dominant language (i.e., L1 Spanish-L2 Basque vs. L1 Basque-L2 Spanish). Our materials exploit an (a)symmetry between these languages: while Basque and English pattern together in the basic structure of (productive) NV-er compounds, Spanish presents a construction that differs in directionality as well as inflection of the verbal element (V[3SG] + N). Results show between and within group differences in accuracy and response times that may be ascribable to two factors besides proficiency: the number of languages spoken by a given participant and their dominant language. An examination of response bias reveals an influence of the participants' first and dominant language on the processing of NV-er compounds. Our data suggest that morphological information in the nonnative lexicon may extend beyond morphemic structure and that, similarly to bilingualism, there are costs to sequential multilingualism in lexical retrieval.

The acquisition of verbal paradigms in Dutch and Greek L2 children: cross-linguistic differences and inflectional defaults

Previous research with children learning a second language (L2) has reported errors with verb inflection and cross-linguistic variation in accuracy and error patterns. However, owing to the cross-linguistic complexity and diversity of different verbal paradigms, the cross-linguistic effects on the nature of default forms has not been directly addressed in L2 acquisition studies. In the present study, we compared accuracy and error patterns in verbal agreement inflections in L2 children acquiring Dutch and Greek, keeping the children’s L1 constant (Turkish). Results showed that inflectional defaults in Greek follow universal predictions regarding the morphological underspecification of paradigms. However, the same universal predictions do not apply to the same extent to Dutch. It is argued that phonological properties of inflected forms should be taken into account to explain cross-linguistic differences in the acquisition of inflection. By systematically comparing patterns in child L2 Dutch and Greek, this study shows how universal mechanisms and target language properties work in tandem in the acquisition of inflectional paradigms.

Metacognition and proofreading: the roles of aging, motivation, and interest

Objectives: The current study examined younger and older adults’ error detection accuracy, prediction calibration, and postdiction calibration on a proofreading task, to determine if age-related difference would be present in this type of common error detection task. Method: Participants were given text passages, and were first asked to predict the percentage of errors they would detect in the passage. They then read the passage and circled errors (which varied in complexity and locality), and made postdictions regarding their performance, before repeating this with another passage and answering a comprehension test of both passages. Results: There were no age-related differences in error detection accuracy, text comprehension, or metacognitive calibration, though participants in both age groups were overconfident overall in their metacognitive judgments. Both groups gave similar ratings of motivation to complete the task. The older adults rated the passages as more interesting than younger adults did, although this level of interest did not appear to influence error-detection performance. Discussion: The age equivalence in both proofreading ability and calibration suggests that the ability to proofread text passages and the associated metacognitive monitoring used in judging one’s own performance are maintained in aging. These age-related similarities persisted when younger adults completed the proofreading tasks on a computer screen, rather than with paper and pencil. The findings provide novel insights regarding the influence that cognitive aging may have on metacognitive accuracy and text processing in an everyday task.