The social impacts of heat waves

The effects of the 2003 European heat wave have highlighted the need for society to prepare itself for and cope more effectively with heat waves. This is particularly important in the context of predicted climate change and the likelihood of more frequent extreme climate events; to date, heat as a natural hazard has been largely ignored. In order to develop better coping strategies, this report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects. The main factors of vulnerability are being elderly, living alone, having a pre-existing disease, being immobile or suffering from mental illness and being economically disadvantaged. The synergistic effects of such factors may prove fatal for some. Heat waves have discernible impacts on society including a rise in mortality, an increased strain on infrastructure (power, water and transport) and a possible rise in social disturbance. Wider impacts may include effects on the retail industry, ecosystem services and tourism. Adapting to more frequent heat waves should include soft engineering options and, where possible, avoid the widespread use of air conditioning which could prove unsustainable in energy terms. Strategies for coping with heat include changing the way in which urban areas are developed or re-developed, and setting up heat watch warning systems based around weather and seasonal climate forecasting and intervention strategies. Although heat waves have discernible effects on society, much remains unknown about their wider social impacts, diffuse health issues and how to manage them.

Numbers of antral follicles during follicular waves in cattle: Evidence for high variation among animals, very high repeatability in individuals, and an inverse association with serum follicle-stimulating hormone concentrations

The extent, causes, and physiological significance of the variation in number of follicles growing during ovarian follicular waves in human beings and cattle are unknown. Therefore, the present study examined the variability and repeatability in numbers of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter during the follicular waves in bovine estrous cycles, and we determined if the variation in number of follicles during waves was associated with alterations in secretion of FSH, estradiol, inhibin, and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I). Dairy cattle were subjected to twice-daily ultrasound analysis to count total number of antral follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter throughout 138 different follicular waves. In another study, blood samples were taken at frequent intervals from cows that consistently had low or very high numbers of follicles during waves and were subjected to immunoassays. Results indicate the following: First, despite an approximately sevenfold variation in number of follicles during waves among animals and marked differences in age, stage of lactation, and season of the year, a very highly repeatable (0.95) number of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter is maintained during the ovulatory and nonovulatory follicular waves of individuals. Second, variation in number of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter during waves and the inverse association of number of follicles during waves with FSH are not directly explained by alterations in the patterns of secretion of estradiol, inhibin, or IGF-I. Third, ovarian ultrasound analysis can be used reliably by investigators to identify cattle that consistently have low or high numbers of follicles during waves, thus providing a novel experimental model to determine the causes and physiological significance of the high variation in antral follicle number during follicular waves among single-ovulating species, such as cattle or humans.

Numerical modelling of two-way propagation of non-linear dispersive waves

We describe and implement a fully discrete spectral method for the numerical solution of a class of non-linear, dispersive systems of Boussinesq type, modelling two-way propagation of long water waves of small amplitude in a channel. For three particular systems, we investigate properties of the numerically computed solutions; in particular we study the generation and interaction of approximate solitary waves.

Tracking and mean structure of easterly waves over the Intra-Americas Sea

Easterly waves (EWs) are prominent features of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), found in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, where they commonly serve as precursors to hurricanes over both basins.Alarge proportion of Atlantic EWs are known to form over Africa, but the origin of EWs over the Caribbean and east Pacific in particular has not been established in detail. In this study reanalyses are used to examine the coherence of the large-scale wave signatures and to obtain track statistics and energy conversion terms for EWs across this region. Regression analysis demonstrates that some EW kinematic structures readily propagate between the Atlantic and east Pacific, with the highest correlations observed across Costa Rica and Panama. Track statistics are consistent with this analysis and suggest that some individual waves are maintained as they pass from the Atlantic into the east Pacific, whereas others are generated locally in the Caribbean and east Pacific. Vortex anomalies associated with the waves are observed on the leeward side of the Sierra Madre, propagating northwestward along the coast, consistent with previous modeling studies of the interactions between zonal flow and EWs with model topography similar to the Sierra Madre. An energetics analysis additionally indicates that the Caribbean low-level jet and its extension into the east Pacific—known as the Papagayo jet—are a source of energy for EWs in the region. Two case studies support these statistics, as well as demonstrate the modulation of EW track and storm development location by the MJO.

Baroclinic stationary waves in aquaplanet models

An aquaplanet model is used to study the nature of the highly persistent low-frequency waves that have been observed in models forced by zonally symmetric boundary conditions. Using the Hayashi spectral analysis of the extratropical waves, the authors find that a quasi-stationary wave 5 belongs to a wave packet obeying a well-defined dispersion relation with eastward group velocity. The components of the dispersion relation with k ≥ 5 baroclinically convert eddy available potential energy into eddy kinetic energy, whereas those with k < 5 are baroclinically neutral. In agreement with Green’s model of baroclinic instability, wave 5 is weakly unstable, and the inverse energy cascade, which had been previously proposed as a main forcing for this type of wave, only acts as a positive feedback on its predominantly baroclinic energetics. The quasi-stationary wave is reinforced by a phase lock to an analogous pattern in the tropical convection, which provides further amplification to the wave. It is also found that the Pedlosky bounds on the phase speed of unstable waves provide guidance in explaining the latitudinal structure of the energy conversion, which is shown to be more enhanced where the zonal westerly surface wind is weaker. The wave’s energy is then trapped in the waveguide created by the upper tropospheric jet stream. In agreement with Green’s theory, as the equator-to-pole SST difference is reduced, the stationary marginally stable component shifts toward higher wavenumbers, while wave 5 becomes neutral and westward propagating. Some properties of the aquaplanet quasi-stationary waves are found to be in interesting agreement with a low frequency wave observed by Salby during December–February in the Southern Hemisphere so that this perspective on low frequency variability, apart from its value in terms of basic geophysical fluid dynamics, might be of specific interest for studying the earth’s atmosphere.

On some properties of traveling water waves with vorticity

We prove that for a large class of vorticity functions the crests of any corresponding traveling gravity water wave of finite depth are necessarily points of maximal horizontal velocity. We also show that for waves with nonpositive vorticity the pressure everywhere in the fluid is larger than the atmospheric pressure. A related a priori estimate for waves with nonnegative vorticity is also given.

Bernoulli free-boundary problems in strip-like domains and a property of permanent waves on water of finite depth

We study weak solutions for a class of free-boundary problems which includes as a special case the classical problem of travelling gravity waves on water of finite depth. We show that such problems are equivalent to problems in fixed domains and study the regularity of their solutions. We also prove that in very general situations the free boundary is necessarily the graph of a function.

On the existence of extreme waves and the Stokes conjecture with vorticity

This is a study of singular solutions of the problem of traveling gravity water waves on flows with vorticity. We show that, for a certain class of vorticity functions, a sequence of regular waves converges to an extreme wave with stagnation points at its crests. We also show that, for any vorticity function, the profile of an extreme wave must have either a corner of 120° or a horizontal tangent at any stagnation point about which it is supposed symmetric. Moreover, the profile necessarily has a corner of 120° if the vorticity is nonnegative near the free surface.

Steady periodic water waves with constant vorticity: regularity and local bifurcation

This paper studies periodic traveling gravity waves at the free surface of water in a flow of constant vorticity over a flat bed. Using conformal mappings the free-boundary problem is transformed into a quasilinear pseudodifferential equation for a periodic function of one variable. The new formulation leads to a regularity result and, by use of bifurcation theory, to the existence of waves of small amplitude even in the presence of stagnation points in the flow.

Baroclinic waves with parameterized effects of moisture interpreted using Rossby wave components

A theoretical framework is developed for the evolution of baroclinic waves with latent heat release parameterized in terms of vertical velocity. Both wave–conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and large-scale rain approaches are included. The new quasigeostrophic framework covers evolution from general initial conditions on zonal flows with vertical shear, planetary vorticity gradient, a lower boundary, and a tropopause. The formulation is given completely in terms of potential vorticity, enabling the partition of perturbations into Rossby wave components, just as for the dry problem. Both modal and nonmodal development can be understood to a good approximation in terms of propagation and interaction between these components alone. The key change with moisture is that growing normal modes are described in terms of four counterpropagating Rossby wave (CRW) components rather than two. Moist CRWs exist above and below the maximum in latent heating, in addition to the upper- and lower-level CRWs of dry theory. Four classifications of baroclinic development are defined by quantifying the strength of interaction between the four components and identifying the dominant pairs, which range from essentially dry instability to instability in the limit of strong heating far from boundaries, with type-C cyclogenesis and diabatic Rossby waves being intermediate types. General initial conditions must also include passively advected residual PV, as in the dry problem.

Equatorial waves in opposite QBO phases

A methodology for identifying equatorial waves is used to analyze the multilevel 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data for two different years (1992 and 1993) to investigate the behavior of the equatorial waves under opposite phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A comprehensive view of 3D structures and of zonal and vertical propagation of equatorial Kelvin, westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG), and n = 1 Rossby (R1) waves in different QBO phases is presented. Consistent with expectation based on theory, upward-propagating Kelvin waves occur more frequently during the easterly QBO phase than during the westerly QBO phase. However, the westward-moving WMRG and R1 waves show the opposite behavior. The presence of vertically propagating equatorial waves in the stratosphere also depends on the upper tropospheric winds and tropospheric forcing. Typical propagation parameters such as the zonal wavenumber, zonal phase speed, period, vertical wavelength, and vertical group velocity are found. In general, waves in the lower stratosphere have a smaller zonal wavenumber, shorter period, faster phase speed, and shorter vertical wavelength than those in the upper troposphere. All of the waves in the lower stratosphere show an upward group velocity and downward phase speed. When the phase of the QBO is not favorable for waves to propagate, their phase speed in the lower stratosphere is larger and their period is shorter than in the favorable phase, suggesting Doppler shifting by the ambient flow and a filtering of the slow waves. Tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves in the Western Hemisphere also show upward phase speed and downward group velocity, with an indication of their forcing from middle latitudes. Although the waves observed in the lower stratosphere are dominated by “free” waves, there is evidence of some connection with previous tropical convection in the favorable year for the Kelvin waves in the warm water hemisphere and WMRG and R1 waves in the Western Hemisphere, which is suggestive of the importance of convective forcing for the existence of propagating coupled Kelvin waves and midlatitude forcing for the existence of coupled WMRG and R1 waves.

Generation of inertia-gravity waves in the rotating thermal annulus by a localised boundary layer instability

Waves with periods shorter than the inertial period exist in the atmosphere (as inertia-gravity waves) and in the oceans (as Poincaré and internal gravity waves). Such waves owe their origin to various mechanisms, but of particular interest are those arising either from local secondary instabilities or spontaneous emission due to loss of balance. These phenomena have been studied in the laboratory, both in the mechanically-forced and the thermally-forced rotating annulus. Their generation mechanisms, especially in the latter system, have not yet been fully understood, however. Here we examine short period waves in a numerical model of the rotating thermal annulus, and show how the results are consistent with those from earlier laboratory experiments. We then show how these waves are consistent with being inertia-gravity waves generated by a localised instability within the thermal boundary layer, the location of which is determined by regions of strong shear and downwelling at certain points within a large-scale baroclinic wave flow. The resulting instability launches small-scale inertia-gravity waves into the geostrophic interior of the flow. Their behaviour is captured in fully nonlinear numerical simulations in a finite-difference, 3D Boussinesq Navier-Stokes model. Such a mechanism has many similarities with those responsible for launching small- and meso-scale inertia-gravity waves in the atmosphere from fronts and local convection.

Solar signal propagation: the role of gravity waves and stratospheric sudden warmings

We use a troposphere‐stratosphere model of intermediate complexity to study the atmospheric response to an idealized solar forcing in the subtropical upper stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) early winter. We investigate two conditions that could influence poleward and downward propagation of the response: (1) the representation of gravity wave effects and (2) the presence/absence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). We also investigate how the perturbation influences the timing and frequency of SSWs. Differences in the poleward and downward propagation of the response within the stratosphere are found depending on whether Rayleigh friction (RF) or a gravity wave scheme (GWS) is used to represent gravity wave effects. These differences are likely related to differences in planetary wave activity in the GWS and RF versions, as planetary wave redistribution plays an important role in the downward and poleward propagation of stratospheric signals. There is also remarkable sensitivity in the tropospheric response to the representation of the gravity wave effects. It is most realistic for GWS. Further, tropospheric responses are systematically different dependent on the absence/presence of SSWs. When only years with SSWs are examined, the tropospheric signal appears to have descended from the stratosphere, while the signal in the troposphere appears disconnected from the stratosphere when years with SSWs are excluded. Different troposphere‐stratosphere coupling mechanisms therefore appear to be dominant for years with and without SSWs. The forcing does not affect the timing of SSWs, but does result in a higher occurrence frequency throughout NH winter. Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation effects were not included.