Evidence for changes in stratospheric transport and mixing over the past three decades based on multiple data sets and tropical leaky pipe analysis

Variability in the strength of the stratospheric Lagrangian mean meridional or Brewer-Dobson circulation and horizontal mixing into the tropics over the past three decades are examined using observations of stratospheric mean age of air and ozone. We use a simple representation of the stratosphere, the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, guided by mean meridional circulation and horizontal mixing changes in several reanalyses data sets and chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations, to help elucidate reasons for the observed changes in stratospheric mean age and ozone. We find that the TLP model is able to accurately simulate multiyear variability in ozone following recent major volcanic eruptions and the early 2000s sea surface temperature changes, as well as the lasting impact on mean age of relatively short-term circulation perturbations. We also find that the best quantitative agreement with the observed mean age and ozone trends over the past three decades is found assuming a small strengthening of the mean circulation in the lower stratosphere, a moderate weakening of the mean circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere, and a moderate increase in the horizontal mixing into the tropics. The mean age trends are strongly sensitive to trends in the horizontal mixing into the tropics, and the uncertainty in the mixing trends causes uncertainty in the mean circulation trends. Comparisons of the mean circulation and mixing changes suggested by the measurements with those from a recent suite of CCM runs reveal significant differences that may have important implications on the accurate simulation of future stratospheric climate.

Transport timescales and tracer properties in the extratropical UTLS

A comprehensive evaluation of seasonal backward trajectories initialized in the northern hemisphere lowermost stratosphere (LMS) has been performed to investigate the factors that determine the temporal and spatial structure of troposphere-to-stratosphere-transport (TST) and it's impact on the LMS. In particular we explain the fundamental role of the transit time since last TST (tTST) for the chemical composition of the LMS. According to our results the structure of the LMS can be characterized by a layer with tTST<40 days forming a narrow band around the local tropopause. This layer extends about 30 K above the local dynamical tropopause, corresponding to the extratropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) as identified by CO. The LMS beyond this layer shows a relatively well defined separation as marked by an aprupt transition to longer tTST indicating less frequent mixing and a smaller fraction of tropospheric air. Thus the LMS constitutes a region of two well defined regimes of tropospheric influence. These can be characterized mainly by different transport times from the troposphere and different fractions of tropospheric air. Carbon monoxide (CO) mirrors this structure of tTST due to it's finite lifetime on the order of three months. Water vapour isopleths, on the other hand, do not uniquely indicate TST and are independent of tTST, but are determined by the Lagrangian Cold Point (LCP) of air parcels. Most of the backward trajectories from the LMS experienced their LCP in the tropics and sub-tropics, and TST often occurs 20 days after trajectories have encountered their LCP. Therefore, ExTL properties deduced from CO and H2O provide totally different informations on transport and particular TST for the LMS.

Measurements of NO, NOy, N2O, and O3 during SPURT: implications for transport and chemistry in the lowermost stratosphere

We present measurements of NO, NOy, O3, and N2O within the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) over Europe obtained during the SPURT project. The measurements cover all seasons between November 2001 and July 2003. They span a broad band of latitudes from 30° N to 75° N and a potential temperature range from 290 to 380 K. The measurements represent a comprehensive data set of these tracers and reveal atmospheric transport processes that influence tracer distributions in the LMS. Median mixing ratios of stratospheric tracers in equivalent latitude-potential temperature coordinates show a clear seasonal cycle related to the Brewer-Dobson circulation, with highest values in spring and lowest values in autumn. Vertical tracer profiles show strong gradients at the extratropical tropopause, suggesting that vertical (cross-isentropic) mixing is reduced above the tropopause. Pronounced meridional gradients in the tracer mixing ratios are found on potential temperature surfaces in the LMS. This suggests strongly reduced mixing along isentropes. Concurrent large gradients in static stability in the vertical direction, and of PV in the meridional direction, suggest the presence of a mixing barrier. Seasonal cycles were found in the correlation slopes ΔO3/ΔN2O and ΔNOy/ΔN2O well above the tropopause. Absolute slope values are smallest in spring indicating chemically aged stratospheric air originating from high altitudes and latitudes. Larger values were measured in summer and autumn suggesting that a substantial fraction of air takes a "short-cut" from the tropical tropopause region into the extratropical LMS. The seasonal change in the composition of the LMS has direct implications for the ozone chemistry in this region. Comparisons of measured NO with the critical NO value at which net ozone production changes from negative to positive, imply ozone production up to 20 K above the local tropopause in spring, up to 30 K in summer, and up to 40 K in autumn. Above these heights, and in winter, net ozone production is negative.

A multimodel assessment of the influence of regional anthropogenic emission reductions on aerosol direct radiative forcing and the role of intercontinental transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean ± one standard deviation) is  ±3.5 ±0.8,  ±4.0 ±1.7, and 29.5 ±18.1mWm ±2 per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 ±5% to 31 ±9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 ±9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 ±18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Climate and more sustainable cities: climate information for improved planning and management of cities (producers/capabilities perspective)

In the last two decades substantial advances have been made in the understanding of the scientific basis of urban climates. These are reviewed here with attention to sustainability of cities, applications that use climate information, and scientific understanding in relation to measurements and modelling. Consideration is given from street (micro) scale to neighbourhood (local) to city and region (meso) scale. Those areas where improvements are needed in the next decade to ensure more sustainable cities are identified. High-priority recommendations are made in the following six strategic areas: observations, data, understanding, modelling, tools and education. These include the need for more operational urban measurement stations and networks; for an international data archive to aid translation of research findings into design tools, along with guidelines for different climate zones and land uses; to develop methods to analyse atmospheric data measured above complex urban surfaces; to improve short-range, high-resolution numerical prediction of weather, air quality and chemical dispersion through improved modelling of the biogeophysical features of the urban land surface; to improve education about urban meteorology; and to encourage communication across scientific disciplines at a range of spatial and temporal scales.

Impact of atmospheric transport on the evolution of microphysical and optical properties of Saharan dust

Saharan dust affects the climate by altering the radiation balance and by depositing minerals to the Atlantic Ocean. Both are dependent on particle size. We present aircraft measurements comprising 42 profiles of size distribution (0.1–300 µm), representing freshly uplifted dust, regional aged dust, and dust in the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the Canary Islands. The mean effective diameter of dust in SAL profiles is 4.5 µm smaller than that in freshly uplifted dust, while the vertical structure changes from a low shallow layer (0–1.5 km) to a well-mixed deep Saharan dust layer (0–5 km). Size distributions show a loss of 60 to 90% of particles larger than 30 µm 12 h after uplift. The single scattering albedo (SSA) increases from 0.92 to 0.94 to 0.95 between fresh, aged, and SAL profiles: this is enough to alter heating rates by 26%. Some fresh dust close to the surface shows SSA as low as 0.85

Transport of the smoke plume from Chiado’s fire in Lisbon (Portugal) sensed by atmospheric electric field measurements

The Chiado’s fire that affected the city centre of Lisbon (Portugal) occurred on 25th August 1988 and had a significant human and environmental impact. This fire was considered the most significant hazard to have occurred in Lisbon city centre after the major earthquake of 1755. A clear signature of this fire is found in the atmospheric electric field data recorded at Portela meteorological station about 8 km NE from the site where the fire started at Chiado. Measurements were made using a Benndorf electrograph with a probe at 1 m height. The atmospheric electric field reached 510 V/m when the wind direction was coming from SW to NE, favourable to the transport of the smoke plume from Chiado to Portela. Such observations agree with predictions using Hysplit air mass trajectory modelling and have been used to estimate the smoke concentration to be ~0.4 mg/m3. It is demonstrated that atmospheric electric field measurements were therefore extremely sensitive to Chiado’s fire. This result is of particular current interest in using networks of atmospheric electric field sensors to complement existing optical and meteorological observations for fire monitoring.

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.

The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr−1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as having an unintended impact on the regional radiative balance and climate.