Who owned Earls Colne in 1798....or how to squeeze more from the Land Tax

In this important article Richard Hoyle, one of the country’s leading historians of the early modern period, introduces new perspectives on the Land Tax and its use in the analysis of local communities in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. He uses as his case study the parish of Earls Colne in Essex, on which he has already written extensively with Professor Henry French. The article begins with an overview of the tax itself, explaining its history and the procedures for the collection of revenues – including the numerous changes which took place. The sizeable problems confronting any would-be analyst of the data are clearly identified, and Hoyle observes that because of these apparently insoluble difficulties the potential of the tax returns has never been fully realised. He then considers the surviving documentation in The National Archives, providing an accessible introduction to the sources and their arrangement, and describing the particularly important question o f the redemption of the tax by payment of a lump sum. The extent of redemption (in the years around 1800-1804) is discussed. Hoyle draws attention to the potential for linking the tax returns themselves with the redemption certificates (which have never been subjected to historical analysis and thereby proposes new ways of exploiting the evidence of the taxation as a whole. The article then discusses in detail the specific case of Earls Colne, with tabulated data showing the research potential. Topics analysed include the ownership of property ranked by size of payment, and calculations whereby the amount paid may be used to determine the worth of land and the structure of individual estates. The important question of absentee owners is investigated, and there is a very valuable consideration of the potential for looking at portfolio estate ownership, whereby owners held land in varying proportions in a number of parishes. It is suggested that such studies will allow us to be more aware of the entirety of property ownership, which a focus on a single community does not permit. In the concluding paragraph it is argued that using these sources we may see the rise and fall of estates, gain new information on landownership, landholding and farm size, and even approach the challenging topic of the distribution of wealth.

The location of executive suites and business centers in the United States: an exploratory analysis

Increasingly, corporate occupiers seek more flexible ways of meeting their accommodation needs. One consequence of this process has been the growth of the executive suite, serviced office or business centre market. This paper, the final report of a research project funded by the Real Estate Research Institute, focuses upon the geographical distribution of business centers offering executive suites within the US. After a brief review of the development of the market, the paper examines the availability of data, provides basic descriptive statistics of the distribution of executive suites by state and by metropolitan statistical area and then attempts to model the distribution using demographic and socio-economic data at MSA level. The distribution reflects employment in key growth sectors and the position of the MSA in the urban hierarchy. An appendix presents a preliminary view of the global distribution of suites.

The nature of Arctic polar vortices in chemistry-climate models

The structure of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex in three chemistry–climate models (CCMs) taken from the CCMVal-2 intercomparison is examined using zonal mean and geometric-based methods. The geometric methods are employed by taking 2D moments of potential vorticity fields that are representative of the polar vortices in each of the models. This allows the vortex area, centroid location and ellipticity to be determined, as well as a measure of vortex filamentation. The first part of the study uses these diagnostics to examine how well the mean state, variability and extreme variability of the polar vortices are represented in CCMs compared to ERA-40 reanalysis data, and in particular for the UMUKCA-METO, NIWA-SOCOL and CCSR/NIES models. The second part of the study assesses how the vortices are predicted to change in terms of the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings and their general structure over the period 1960–2100. In general, it is found that the vortices are climatologically too far poleward in the CCMs and produce too few large-scale filamentation events. Only a small increase is observed in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events from the mean of the CCMVal-2 models, but the distribution of extreme variability throughout the winter period is shown to change towards the end of the twentyfirst century.

Language capital and development: the case of African language publishing for children in South Africa

In recognizing 11 official languages, the 1996 South African Constitution provides a context for the management of diversity with important implications for the redistribution of wealth and power. The development and implementation of the language-in-education policies which might be expected to flow from the Constitution, however, have been slow and ineffective. One of the casualties of government procrastination has been African language publishing. In the absence of well-resourced bilingual education, most learners continue to be taught through the medium of English as a second language. Teachers are reluctant to use more innovative pedagogies without the support of adequate African language materials and publishers are cautious about producing such materials. Nonetheless, activity in this sector offers many opportunities for African language speakers. This paper explores the challenges and constraints for African language publishing for children and argues that market forces and language policy need to work in mutually reinforcing ways. Further progress is necessarily dependent on the political will to implement language-in-education policies that promote additive bilingualism and, in the process, guarantee sales for risk-averse publishers.

Intergenerational persistence in health in developing countries : the penalty of gender inequality?

This paper is motivated to investigate the often neglected payoff to investments in the health of girls and women in terms of next generation outcomes. This paper investigates the intergenerational persistence of health across time and region as well as across the distribution of maternal health. It uses comparable microdata on as many as 2.24 million children born of about 0.6 million mothers in 38 developing countries in the 31 year period, 1970–2000. Mother's health is indicated by her height, BMI and anemia status. Child health is indicated by mortality risk and anthropometric failure. We find a positive relationship between maternal and child health across indicators and highlight non-linearities in these relationships. The results suggest that both contemporary and childhood health of the mother matter and that the benefits to the next generation are likely to be persistent. Averaging across the sample, persistence shows a considerable decline over time. Disaggregation shows that the decline is only significant in Latin America. Persistence has remained largely constant in Asia and has risen in Africa. The paper provides the first cross-country estimates of the intergenerational persistence in health and the first estimates of trends.

Sequence analysis and distribution of an IS3-like insertion element isolated from Salmonella enteritidis

The nucleotide sequence of a 3 kb region immediately upstream of the sef operon operon of Salmonella enteritidis was determined. A 1230 base pair insertion sequence which shared sequence identity (> 75%) with members of the IS3 family was revealed. This element, designated IS1230, had almost identical (90% identity) terminal inverted repeats to Escherichia coli IS3 but unlike other IS3-like sequences lacked the two characteristic open reading frames which encode the putative transposase. S. enteritidis possessed only one copy of this insertion sequence although Southern hybridisation analysis of restriction digests of genomic DNA revealed another fragment located in a region different from the sef operon which hybridised weakly which suggested the presence of an IS1230 homologue. The distribution of IS1230 and IS1230-like elements was shown to be widespread amongst salmonellas and the patterns of restriction fragments which hybridised differed significantly between Salmonella serotypes and it is suggested that IS1230 has potential for development as a differential diagnostic tool.

The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO42−). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO42− and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean ± 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 ± 0.6 to 1.7 ± 2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (−162.6 ± 2 mWm−2 for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (−0.4 ± 0.2 to −0.7 ± 0.2 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1) and CO emissions (−0.13 ± 0.02 to −0.15 ± 0.02 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by −1.9 to −5.2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1, −0.2 to −0.7 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1, and −0.02 to −0.05 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1. Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO42−, regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO42− responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 ± 2.6 to −1.9 ± 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 ± 1.2 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and −0.09 ± 0.5 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP100) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 ± 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 ± 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (−18.7 ± 25.9 to −1.9 ± 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 ± 1.7 to 8.3 ± 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 ± 0.4 to 1.7 ± 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP100 for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

Optimizing the methods of synthesis for barium hexagonal ferrite: an experimental and theoretical study

M-type barium hexaferrite (BaM) is a hard ferrite, crystallizing in space group P6(3)/mmc possessing a hexagonal magneto-plumbite structure, which consists of alternate hexagonal and spinel blocks. The structure of BaM is thus related to those of garnet and spinel ferrite. However the material has proved difficult to synthesize. By taking into account the presence of the spinel block in barium hexagonal ferrite, highly efficient new synthetic methods were devised with routes significantly different from existing ones. These successful variations in synthetic methods have been derived by taking into account a detailed investigation of the structural features of barium hexagonal ferrite and the least change principle whereby configuration changes are kept to a minimum. Thus considering the relevant mechanisms has helped to improve the synthesis efficiencies for both hydrothermal and co-precipitation methods by choosing conditions that invoke the formation of the cubic block or the less stable Fe3O4. The role played by BaFe2O4 in the synthesis is also discussed. The distribution of iron from reactants or intermediates among different sites was also successfully explained. The proposed mechanisms are based on the principle that the cubic block must be self-assembled to form the final product. Thus, it is believed that these formulated mechanisms should be helpful in designing experiments to obtain a deeper understanding of the synthesis process and to investigate the substitution of magnetic ions with doping ions.

The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate

A strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the earth’s surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a “weak vortex event,” anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on time scales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high northern latitudes, as well as a quadrupole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors, but it is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not. This study compares a new classification technique of weak vortex events, based on the distribution of potential vorticity, with that of an existing technique and demonstrates that the subdivision of such events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly to monthly time scales. Using reanalysis data it is found that vortex splitting events are correlated with surface weather and lead to positive temperature anomalies over eastern North America of more than 1.5 K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to −3 K. Associated with this is an increase in high-latitude blocking in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors and a decrease in European blocking. The corresponding signals are weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they are shown to be related to cold-air outbreaks over North America. Because of the importance of stratosphere–troposphere coupling for seasonal climate predictability, identifying the type of stratospheric variability in order to capture the correct surface response will be necessary.

Global snow mass measurements and the effect of stratigraphic detail on inversion of microwave brightness temperatures

Snow provides large seasonal storage of freshwater, and information about the distribution of snow mass as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is important for hydrological planning and detecting climate change impacts. Large regional disagreements remain between estimates from reanalyses, remote sensing and modelling. Assimilating passive microwave information improves SWE estimates in many regions but the assimilation must account for how microwave scattering depends on snow stratigraphy. Physical snow models can estimate snow stratigraphy, but users must consider the computational expense of model complexity versus acceptable errors. Using data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cold Land Processes Experiment (NASA CLPX) and the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) microwave emission model of layered snowpacks, it is shown that simulations of the brightness temperature difference between 19 GHz and 37 GHz vertically polarised microwaves are consistent with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals once known stratigraphic information is used. Simulated brightness temperature differences for an individual snow profile depend on the provided stratigraphic detail. Relative to a profile defined at the 10 cm resolution of density and temperature measurements, the error introduced by simplification to a single layer of average properties increases approximately linearly with snow mass. If this brightness temperature error is converted into SWE using a traditional retrieval method then it is equivalent to ±13 mm SWE (7% of total) at a depth of 100 cm. This error is reduced to ±5.6 mm SWE (3 % of total) for a two-layer model.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on river flows in England using the UKCP09 climate change projections

This paper presents an assessment of the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in representative English catchments, using the UKCP09 climate projections. These comprise a set of 10,000 coherent climate scenarios, used here (i) to evaluate the distribution of potential changes in hydrological behaviour and (ii) to construct relationships between indicators of climate change and hydrological change. The study uses six catchments, and focuses on change in average flow, high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). There is a large range in hydrological change in each catchment between the plausible UKCP09 climate projections, with differences between catchments largely due to differences in catchment geology and baseline water balance. The range in change between the UKCP09 projections is in most catchments smaller than the range between changes with scenarios based on the CMIP3 ensemble of climate models, and earlier UK scenarios produce changes that tend towards the lower (drier) end of the UKCP09 range. The difference between emissions scenarios is small compared to the range across the 10,000 scenarios. Changes in high flows are largely driven by changes in winter precipitation, whilst changes in low flows are determined by changes in summer precipitation and temperature.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

On the determination of ion temperature in the auroral F-region ionosphere

Assessment is made of the effect of the assumed form for the ion velocity distribution function on estimates of three-dimensional ion temperature from one-dimensional observations. Incoherent scatter observations by the EISCAT radar at a variety of aspect angles are used to demonstrate features of ion temperature determination and to study the ion velocity distribution function. One form of the distribution function which has recently been widely used In the interpretation of EISCAT measurements, is found to be consistent with the data presented here, in that no deviation from a Maxwellian can be detected for observations along the magnetic field line and that the ion temperature and its anisotropy are accurately predicted. It is shown that theoretical predictions of the anisotropy by Monte Carlo computations are very accurate, the observed value being greater by only a few percent. It is also demonstrated for the case studied that errors of up to 93% are introduced into the ion temperature estimate if the anisotropy is neglected. Observations at an aspect angle of 54.7°, which are not subject to this error, have a much smaller uncertainty (less than 1%) due to the adopted form of the distribution of line-of-sight velocity.

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.