Data assimilation: From photon counts to Earth System forecasts

Data assimilation – the set of techniques whereby information from observing systems and models is combined optimally – is rapidly becoming prominent in endeavours to exploit Earth Observation for Earth sciences, including climate prediction. This paper explains the broad principles of data assimilation, outlining different approaches (optimal interpolation, three-dimensional and four-dimensional variational methods, the Kalman Filter), together with the approximations that are often necessary to make them practicable. After pointing out a variety of benefits of data assimilation, the paper then outlines some practical applications of the exploitation of Earth Observation by data assimilation in the areas of operational oceanography, chemical weather forecasting and carbon cycle modelling. Finally, some challenges for the future are noted.

Sensitivity of tropospheric forecasts to stratospheric initial conditions

A number of recent papers in the atmospheric science literature have suggested that a dynamical link exists between the stratosphere and troposphere. Numerical modelling studies have shown that the troposphere has a time-mean response to changes to the stratospheric climatological state. In this study the response of the troposphere to an imposed transient stratospheric change is examined. The study uses a high horizontal and vertical resolution numerical weather-prediction model. Experiments compare the tropospheric forecasts of two medium-range forecast ensembles which have identical tropospheric initial conditions and different stratospheric initial conditions. In three case studies described here, stratospheric initial conditions have a statistically significant impact on the tropospheric flow. The mechanism for this change involves, in its most basic step, a change to tropospheric synoptic-scale systems. A consistent change to the tropospheric synoptic-scale systems occurs in response to the stratospheric initial conditions. The aggregated impact of changes to individual synoptic systems maps strongly onto the structure of the Arctic Oscillation, particularly over the North Atlantic storm track. The relationship between the stratosphere and troposphere, while apparent in Arctic Oscillation diagnostics, does not occur on coherent, hemispheric scales.

Referencing of street-level flows measured during the DAPPLE 2004 campaign

Street-level mean flow and turbulence govern the dispersion of gases away from their sources in urban areas. A suitable reference measurement in the driving flow above the urban canopy is needed to both understand and model complex street-level flow for pollutant dispersion or emergency response purposes. In vegetation canopies, a reference at mean canopy height is often used, but it is unclear whether this is suitable for urban canopies. This paper presents an evaluation of the quality of reference measurements at both roof-top (height = H) and at height z = 9H = 190 m, and their ability to explain mean and turbulent variations of street-level flow. Fast response wind data were measured at street canyon and reference sites during the six-week long DAPPLE project field campaign in spring 2004, in central London, UK, and an averaging time of 10 min was used to distinguish recirculation-type mean flow patterns from turbulence. Flow distortion at each reference site was assessed by considering turbulence intensity and streamline deflection. Then each reference was used as the dependent variable in the model of Dobre et al. (2005) which decomposes street-level flow into channelling and recirculating components. The high reference explained more of the variability of the mean flow. Coupling of turbulent kinetic energy was also stronger between street-level and the high reference flow rather than the roof-top. This coupling was weaker when overnight flow was stratified, and turbulence was suppressed at the high reference site. However, such events were rare (<1% of data) over the six-week long period. The potential usefulness of a centralised, high reference site in London was thus demonstrated with application to emergency response and air quality modelling.

The effects of different knowledge-dissemination interventions on the mastitis knowledge of Tanzanian smallholder dairy farmers

We developed three different knowledge-dissemination methods for educating Tanzanian smallholder farmers about mastitis in their dairy cattle. The effectiveness of these methods (and their combinations) was evaluated and quantified using a randomised controlled trial and multilevel statistical modelling. To our knowledge, this is the first study that has used such techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of different knowledge-dissemination interventions for adult learning in developing countries. Five different combinations of knowledge-dissemination method were compared: 'diagrammatic handout' ('HO'), 'village meeting' ('VM'), 'village meeting and video' ('VM + V), 'village meeting and diagrammatic handout' ('VM + HO') and 'village meeting, video and diagrammatic handout' ('VM + V + HO'). Smallholder dairy farmers were exposed to only one of these interventions, and the effectiveness of each was compared to a control ('C') group, who received no intervention. The mastitis knowledge of each farmer (n = 256) was evaluated by questionnaire both pre- and post-dissemination. Generalised linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the different interventions. The outcome variable considered was the probability of volunteering correct responses to mastitis questions post-dissemination, with 'village' and 'farmer' considered as random effects in the model. Results showed that all five interventions, 'HO' (odds ratio (OR) = 3.50, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 3.10, 3.96), 'VM + V + HO' (OR = 3.34, 95% CI = 2.94, 3.78), 'VM + HO, (OR=3.28, 95% CI=2.90, 3.71), WM+V (OR=3.22, 95% CI=2.84, 3.64) and 'VM' (OR = 2.61, 95% CI = 2.31, 2.95), were significantly (p < 0.0001) more effective at disseminating mastitis knowledge than no intervention. In addition, the 'VM' method was less effective at disseminating mastitis knowledge than other interventions. Combinations of methods showed no advantage over the diagrammatic handout alone. Other explanatory variables with significant positive associations on mastitis knowledge included education to secondary school level or higher, and having previously learned about mastitis by reading pamphlets or attendance at an animal-health course. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vivo transformations of artemisinic acid in Artemisia annua plants

Artemisinic acid labeled with both C-13 and H-2 at the 15-position has been fed to intact plants of Artemisia annua via the cut stem, and its in vivo transformations studied by 1D- and 2D-NMR spectroscopy. Seven labeled metabolites have been isolated, all of which are known as natural products from this species. The transformations of artemisinic acid-as observed both for a group of plants, which was kept alive by hydroponic administration of water and for a group, which was allowed to die by desiccation-closely paralleled those, which have been recently described for its 11,13-dihydro analog, dihydroartemisinic acid. It seems likely therefore that similar mechanisms, involving spontaneous autoxidation of the Delta(4,5) double bond in both artemisinic acid and dihydroartemisinic acid and subsequent rearrangements of the resultant allylic hydroperoxides, may be involved in the biological transformations, which are undergone by both compounds. All of the sesquiterpene metabolites, which were obtained from in vivo transformations of artemisinic acid retained their unsaturation at the 11,13-position, and there was no evidence for conversion into any 11,13-dihydro metabolite, including artemisinin, the antimalarial drug, which is produced by A. annua. This observation led to the proposal of a unified biosynthetic scheme, which accounts for the biogenesis of many of the amorphane and cadinane sesquiterpenes that have been isolated as natural products from A. annua. In this scheme, there is a bifurcation in the biosynthetic pathway starting from amorpha-4,11-diene leading to either artemisinic acid or dihydroartemisinic acid; these two committed precursors are then, respectively, the parents for the two large families of highly oxygenated 11,13-dehydro and 11,13-dihydro sesquiterpene metabolites, which are known from this species. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vivo transformations of dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B in Artemisia annua plants

[15-(CH3)-C-13-H-2]-dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B (4a) has been fed to intact Artemisia annua plants via the root and three labeled metabolites (17a-19a) have been identified by 1D- and 2D-NMR spectroscopies. The in vivo transformations of 4a in A. annua are proposed to involve enzymatically-mediated processes in addition to possible spontaneous autoxidation. In the hypothetical spontaneous autoxidation pathway, the tri-substituted double bond in 4a appears to have undergone 'ene-type' reaction with oxygen to form an allylic hydroperoxide, which subsequently rearranges to the allylic hydroxyl group in the metabolite 3 alpha-hydroxy-dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B (17a). In the enzymatically-mediated pathways, compound 17a has then been converted to its acetyl derivative, 3 alpha-acetoxy-dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B (18a), while oxidation of 4a at the 'unactivated' 9-position has yielded 9 beta-hydroxy-dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B (19a). Although all of the natural products artemisinin ( 1), arteannuin K ( 7), arteannuin L ( 8), and arteannuin M ( 9) have been suggested previously as hypothetical metabolites from dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B in A. annua, none were isolated in labeled form in this study. It is argued that the nature of the transformations undergone by compound 4a are more consistent with a degradative metabolism, designed to eliminate this compound from the plant, rather than with a role as a late precursor in the biosynthesis of artemisinin or other natural products from A. annua. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Superacid-catalyzed polycondensation of acenaphthenequinone with aromatic hydrocarbons

A novel series of linear, high molecular weight polymers were synthesized by one-pot, superacid-catalyzed reaction of acenaphthenequinone (1) with aromatic hydrocarbons. The reactions were performed at room temperature in the Bronsted superacid CF3SO3H (trifluoromethanesulfonic acid, TFSA) and in a mixture of TFSA with methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), which was used as both solvent and a medium for generation of electrophilic species from acenaphthenequinone. The polymer-forming reaction was found to be dependent greatly on the acidity of the reaction medium, as judged from the viscosity of the polymers obtained. Polycondensations of acenaphthenequinone with 4,4'-diphenoxybenzophenone (f), 1,3-bis(4-phenoxybenzoyl)benzene (g), 1,4-bis(4-phenoxybenzoyl)benzene (h), 1,10-bis(4-phenoxyphenyl)decane-1,10-dione (i), 2,6-diphenoxybenzonitrile), 2,6-diphenoxybenzoic acid (k), and 2-(4-biphenylyl)-6-phenylbenzoxazole (1) proceeded in a reaction medium of wide range of acidity, including pure TFSA (Hammett acidity function H-0 of pure TFSA is -14.1), whereas condensation of 1 with biphenyl, terphenyl, diphenyl ether, and 1,4-diphenoxybenzene needed a reaction medium of acidity H-0 less than -11.5. A possible reaction mechanism is suggested. The polymers obtained were found to be soluble in the common organic solvents, and flexible transparent films could be cast from the solutions. H-1 and C-13 NMR analyses of the polymers synthesized revealed their linear, highly regular structure. The polymers also possess high thermostability. Char yields for polymers 3a, 3c, 3d, and 3l in nitrogen were close to 80% at 1000 degrees C.

Introducing assistive technology into the homes of older people: Some lessons from the Netherlands - A case study

The authors have just completed a study of assistive technology (AT) and how it can be introduced into the existing homes of older people. As part of this empirical study some collaboration with the Netherlands took place for two reasons. First to learn about the use of assistive technology from a country where its creative use was well established and second to learn how older people influence policy. Two Dutch consultants helped the team and a short visit was paid to Eindhoven. As a result of this collaboration new ways of using AT were found and comparisons made with the policy and legislative background. In addition lessons were drawn about the involvement of older people.

Health informatics: improving patient-centred healthcare pathway

Nowadays the use of information and communication technology is becoming prevalent in many aspects of healthcare services from patient registration, to consultation, treatment and pathology tests request. Manual interface techniques have dominated data-capture activities in primary care and secondary care settings for decades. Despites the improvements made in IT, usability issues still remain over the use of I/O devices like the computer keyboard, touch-sensitive screens, light pen and barcodes. Furthermore, clinicians have to use several computer applications when providing healthcare services to patients. One of the problems faced by medical professionals is the lack of data integrity between the different software applications which in turn can hinder the provision of healthcare services tailored to the needs of the patients. The use of digital pen and paper technology integrated with legacy medical systems hold the promise of improving healthcare quality. This paper discusses the issue of data integrity in e-health systems and proposes the modelling of "Smart Forms" via semiotics to potentially improve integrity between legacy systems, making the work of medical professionals easier and improve the quality of care in primary care practices and hospitals.

A ruthenium(II) complex stabilized by a highly fluorinated PCP pincer ligand

A novel Ru(II) complex containing an electron-poor, highly fluorinated PCPArF pincer ligand has been synthesized in good yield via a transcyclometalation reaction. The complex has been fully characterized by elemental analysis, 1D and 2D NMR techniques, LTV-vis spectroscopy, and cyclic voltammetry. Single-crystal X-ray structural analysis and DFT calculations were performed. The structural features and electronic properties of the remarkably stable PCPArF-Ru(II) complex 4 have been investigated and show unanticipated differences compared to its protio analogue.

The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

Lightning-induced intensification of the ionospheric sporadic E layer

A connection between thunderstorms and the ionosphere has been hypothesized since the mid-1920s(1). Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this connection(2-7), and evidence from modelling(8) as well as various types of measurements(9-14) demonstrate that lightning can interact with the lower ionosphere. It has been proposed, on the basis of a few observed events(15), that the ionospheric 'sporadic E' layer - transient, localized patches of relatively high electron density in the mid-ionosphere E layer, which significantly affect radio-wave propagation - can be modulated by thunderstorms, but a more formal statistical analysis is still needed. Here we identify a statistically significant intensification and descent in altitude of the mid-latitude sporadic E layer directly above thunderstorms. Because no ionospheric response to low-pressure systems without lightning is detected, we conclude that this localized intensification of the sporadic E layer can be attributed to lightning. We suggest that the co-location of lightning and ionospheric enhancement can be explained by either vertically propagating gravity waves that transfer energy from the site of lightning into the ionosphere, or vertical electrical discharge, or by a combination of these two mechanisms.

Development of a semantic graph-based scene description

Software representations of scenes, i.e. the modelling of objects in space, are used in many application domains. Current modelling and scene description standards focus on visualisation dimensions, and are intrinsically limited by their dependence upon their semantic interpretation and contextual application by humans. In this paper we propose the need for an open, extensible and semantically rich modelling language, which facilitates a machine-readable semantic structure. We critically review existing standards and techniques, and highlight a need for a semantically focussed scene description language. Based on this defined need we propose a preliminary solution, based on hypergraph theory, and reflect on application domains.

Resolution of sharp fronts in the presence of model error in variational data assimilation

We show that the four-dimensional variational data assimilation method (4DVar) can be interpreted as a form of Tikhonov regularization, a very familiar method for solving ill-posed inverse problems. It is known from image restoration problems that L1-norm penalty regularization recovers sharp edges in the image more accurately than Tikhonov, or L2-norm, penalty regularization. We apply this idea from stationary inverse problems to 4DVar, a dynamical inverse problem, and give examples for an L1-norm penalty approach and a mixed total variation (TV) L1–L2-norm penalty approach. For problems with model error where sharp fronts are present and the background and observation error covariances are known, the mixed TV L1–L2-norm penalty performs better than either the L1-norm method or the strong constraint 4DVar (L2-norm)method. A strength of the mixed TV L1–L2-norm regularization is that in the case where a simplified form of the background error covariance matrix is used it produces a much more accurate analysis than 4DVar. The method thus has the potential in numerical weather prediction to overcome operational problems with poorly tuned background error covariance matrices.

Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.