Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate

Uncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas the irreducible forecast uncertainty (IFU) arising from the chaoticity of the climate system has received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into the mechanisms through which predictability is lost, and hence can inform prioritization of model development and observations deployment. Here, we characterize how internal oceanic and surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute to IFU of Arctic sea ice and upper ocean heat content in an Earth system model by analyzing a set of idealized ensemble prediction experiments. We find that atmospheric and oceanic heat flux are often equally important for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes in sea ice and surface water temperatures, and hence contribute equally to IFU. Atmospheric surface heat flux tends to dominate Arctic-wide changes for lead times of up to a year, whereas oceanic heat flux tends to dominate regionally and on interannual time scales. There is in general a strong negative covariance between surface heat flux and ocean vertical heat flux at depth, and anomalies of lateral ocean heat transport are wind-driven, which suggests that the unpredictable oceanic heat flux variability is mainly forced by the atmosphere. These results are qualitatively robust across different initial states, but substantial variations in the amplitude of IFU exist. We conclude that both atmospheric variability and the initial state of the upper ocean are key ingredients for predictions of Arctic surface climate on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Supra-molecular assembly of a lumican-derived peptide amphiphile enhances its collagen-stimulating activity

C16-YEALRVANEVTLN, a peptide amphiphile (PA) incorporating a biologically active amino acid sequence found in lumican, has been examined for its influence upon collagen synthesis by human corneal fibroblasts in vitro, and the roles of supra-molecular assembly and activin receptor-like kinase ALK receptor signaling in this effect were assessed. Cell viability was monitored using the Alamar blue assay, and collagen synthesis was assessed using Sirius red. The role of ALK signaling was studied by receptor inhibition. Cultured human corneal fibroblasts synthesized significantly greater amounts of collagen in the presence of the PA over both 7-day and 21-day periods. The aggregation of the PA to form nanotapes resulted in a notable enhancement in this activity, with an approximately two-fold increase in collagen production per cell. This increase was reduced by the addition of an ALK inhibitor. The data presented reveal a stimulatory effect upon collagen synthesis by the primary cells of the corneal stroma, and demonstrate a direct influence of supra-molecular assembly of the PA upon the cellular response observed. The effects of PA upon fibroblasts were dependent upon ALK receptor function. These findings elucidate the role of self-assembled nanostructures in the biological activity of peptide amphiphiles, and support the potential use of a self-assembling lumican derived PA as a novel biomaterial, intended to promote collagen deposition for wound repair and tissue engineering purposes