Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations.

On the variability of the surface environment response to synoptic forcing over complex terrain: a multivariate data analysis approach

Synoptic climatology relates the atmospheric circulation with the surface environment. The aim of this study is to examine the variability of the surface meteorological patterns, which are developing under different synoptic scale categories over a suburban area with complex topography. Multivariate Data Analysis techniques were performed to a data set with surface meteorological elements. Three principal components related to the thermodynamic status of the surface environment and the two components of the wind speed were found. The variability of the surface flows was related with atmospheric circulation categories by applying Correspondence Analysis. Similar surface thermodynamic fields develop under cyclonic categories, which are contrasted with the anti-cyclonic category. A strong, steady wind flow characterized by high shear values develops under the cyclonic Closed Low and the anticyclonic H–L categories, in contrast to the variable weak flow under the anticyclonic Open Anticyclone category.

Time-dependent flows in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Concepts of time-dependent flow in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system are discussed and compared with the frequently-adopted steady-state paradigm. Flows are viewed as resulting from departures of the system from equilibrium excited by dayside and nightside reconnection processes, with the flows then taking the system back towards a new equilibrium configuration. The response of the system to reconnection impulses, continuous but unbalanced reconnection and balanced steady-state reconnection are discussed in these terms. It is emphasized that in the time-dependent case the ionospheric and interplanetary electric fields are generally inductively decoupled from each other; a simple mapping of the interplanetary electric field along equipotential field lines into the ionosphere occurs only in the electrostatic steady-state case.

Scattered power from non-thermal, F-region plasma observed by EISCAT—evidence for coherent echoes?

Three rapid, poleward bursts of plasma flow, observed by the U.K.-POLAR EISCAT experiment, are studied in detail. In all three cases the large ion velocities (> 1 kms−1) are shown to drive the ion velocity distribution into a non-Maxwellian form, identified by the characteristic shape of the observed spectra and the fact that analysis of the spectra with the assumption of a Maxwellian distribution leads to excessive rises in apparent ion temperature, and an anticorrelation of apparent electron and ion temperatures. For all three periods the total scattered power is shown to rise with apparent ion temperature by up to 6 dB more than is expected for an isotropic Maxwellian plasma of constant density and by an even larger factor than that expected for non-thermal plasma. The anomalous increases in power are only observed at the lower altitudes (< 300 km). At greater altitudes the rise in power is roughly consistent with that simulated numerically for homogeneous, anisotropic, non-Maxwellian plasma of constant density, viewed using the U.K.-POLAR aspect angle. The spectra at times of anomalously high power are found to be asymmetric, showing an enhancement near the downward Doppler-shifted ion-acoustic frequency. Although it is not possible to eliminate completely rapid plasma density fluctuations as a cause of these power increases, such effects cannot explain the observed spectra and the correlation of power and apparent ion temperature without an unlikely set of coincidences. The observations are made along a beam direction which is as much as 16.5° from orthogonality with the geomagnetic field. Nevertheless, some form of coherent-like echo contamination of the incoherent scatter spectrum is the most satisfactory explanation of these data.

Field-aligned plasma flow in the quiet, mid-latitude ionosphere deduced from topside soundings

A method for quantifying diffusive flows of O+ ions in the topside ionosphere from satellite soundings is described. A departure from diffusive equilibrium alters the shape of the plasma scale-height profile near the F2-peak where ion-neutral frictional drag is large. The effect enables the evaluation of , the field-aligned flux of O+ ions relative to the neutral oxygen atom gas, using MSIS model values for the neutral thermospheric densities and temperature. Upward flow values are accurate to within about 10%, the largest sources of error being the MSIS prediction for the concentration of oxygen atoms and the plasma temperature gradient deduced from the sounding. Downward flux values are only determined to within 20%. From 60,000 topside soundings, taken at the minimum and rising phase of the solar cycle, a total of 1098 mean scale-height profiles are identified for which no storm sudden commencement had occurred in the previous 12 days and for which Kp was less than 2o, each mean profile being an average of about six soundings. A statistical study ofdeduced from these profiles shows the diurnal cycle of O+ flow in the quiet, topside ionosphere at mid-latitudes and its seasonal variations. The differences betweenand ion flux observations from incoherent scatter radars are considered using the meridional thermospheric winds predicted by a global, three-dimensional model. The mean interhemispheric flow from summer to winter is compared with predictions by a numerical model of the protonospheric coupling of conjugate ionospheres for up to 6 days following a geomagnetic storm. The observed mean (of order 3 × 1016 ions day−1 along a flux tube of area 1 m2 at 1000 km) is larger than predicted for day 6 and the suggested explanation is a decrease in upward flows from the winter, daytime ionosphere between the sixth and twelfth days.

Departures from diffusive equilibrium in the topside F-layer from satellite soundings

A method for the detection of O+ ion fluxes from topside soundings is described. The shape of the plasma scale-height profile is altered by such flows only at heights near the F2-peak, where ion-neutral drag is large. Model profiles are used to relate changes in scale height to the ratio (φ/φL) where φ is the field-aligned O+ flux (relative to the neutral air) and φL is the limiting value set by frictional drag. Values of (φ/φL) can then be determined to within a few per cent from experimental soundings, using the plasma temperature and its gradient (as deduced from the observed profile) and the MSIS model neutral temperature. It was found that 3700 topside profiles show departures from diffusive equilibrium, out of 10,000 used to obtain the global morphology of (φ/φL) near the sunspot minimum. Results reveal dynamic ion-flow effects such as the transequatorial breeze and the effects of the polar wind and protonospheric replenishment light-ion flows can be inferred.

Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled sun-to-Earth model: challenges and first results

Results from the first Sun-to-Earth coupled numerical model developed at the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling are presented. The model simulates physical processes occurring in space spanning from the corona of the Sun to the Earth's ionosphere, and it represents the first step toward creating a physics-based numerical tool for predicting space weather conditions in the near-Earth environment. Two 6- to 7-d intervals, representing different heliospheric conditions in terms of the three-dimensional configuration of the heliospheric current sheet, are chosen for simulations. These conditions lead to drastically different responses of the simulated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, emphasizing, on the one hand, challenges one encounters in building such forecasting tools, and on the other hand, emphasizing successes that can already be achieved even at this initial stage of Sun-to-Earth modeling.

Retrieval of mesospheric electron densities using an optimal estimation inverse method

We present a new method to determine mesospheric electron densities from partially reflected medium frequency radar pulses. The technique uses an optimal estimation inverse method and retrieves both an electron density profile and a gradient electron density profile. As well as accounting for the absorption of the two magnetoionic modes formed by ionospheric birefringence of each radar pulse, the forward model of the retrieval parameterises possible Fresnel scatter of each mode by fine electronic structure, phase changes of each mode due to Faraday rotation and the dependence of the amplitudes of the backscattered modes upon pulse width. Validation results indicate that known profiles can be retrieved and that χ2 tests upon retrieval parameters satisfy validity criteria. Application to measurements shows that retrieved electron density profiles are consistent with accepted ideas about seasonal variability of electron densities and their dependence upon nitric oxide production and transport.

High-latitude particle precipitation and its relationship to magnetospheric source regions

Two central issues in magnetospheric research are understanding the mapping of the low-altitude ionosphere to the distant regions of the magnetsphere, and understanding the relationship between the small-scale features detected in the various regions of the ionosphere and the global properties of the magnetosphere. The high-latitude ionosphere, through its magnetic connection to the outer magnetosphere, provides an important view of magnetospheric boundaries and the physical processes occurring there. All physical manifestations of this magnetic connectivity (waves, particle precipitation, etc.), however, have non-zero propagation times during which they are convected by the large-scale magnetospheric electric field, with phenomena undergoing different convection distances depending on their propagation times. Identification of the ionospheric signatures of magnetospheric regions and phenomena, therefore, can be difficult. Considerable progress has recently been made in identifying these convection signatures in data from low- and high-altitude satellites. This work has allowed us to learn much about issues such as: the rates of magnetic reconnection, both at the dayside magnetopause and in the magnetotail; particle transport across the open magnetopause; and particle acceleration at the magnetopause and the magnetotail current sheets.

Ionospheric origin of magnetospheric O+ ions

Flows of thermal atomic oxygen (O+) ions are deduced from topside ionospheric plasma density profiles. The mean flux within most of the polar cap is of the order of 10^12 m^{−2} s^{−1}, a figure which is consistent with both theoretical and experimental estimates of the light ion polar wind at greater altitudes. Larger flows (up to 6 × 10^12 m^{−2} s^{−1}) are observed near the poleward edge of the night-side statistical auroral oval, a feature not reproduced in the light ion flux. The implication is one of a low altitude acceleration mechanism, acting upon the O+ ions at these latitudes and at heights above that at which the fluxes are observed. Such a process would enable ions to escape from the ionosphere because they do not exchange charge with neutral hydrogen. The observations are in general agreement with energetic O+ ions as previously observed in various parts of the magnetosphere.

Introduction. Stochastic physics and climate modelling

Finite computing resources limit the spatial resolution of state-of-the-art global climate simulations to hundreds of kilometres. In neither the atmosphere nor the ocean are small-scale processes such as convection, clouds and ocean eddies properly represented. Climate simulations are known to depend, sometimes quite strongly, on the resulting bulk-formula representation of unresolved processes. Stochastic physics schemes within weather and climate models have the potential to represent the dynamical effects of unresolved scales in ways which conventional bulk-formula representations are incapable of so doing. The application of stochastic physics to climate modelling is a rapidly advancing, important and innovative topic. The latest research findings are gathered together in the Theme Issue for which this paper serves as the introduction.

The ASSET intercomparison of ozone analyses: method and first results

This paper aims to summarise the current performance of ozone data assimilation (DA) systems, to show where they can be improved, and to quantify their errors. It examines 11 sets of ozone analyses from 7 different DA systems. Two are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems based on general circulation models (GCMs); the other five use chemistry transport models (CTMs). The systems examined contain either linearised or detailed ozone chemistry, or no chemistry at all. In most analyses, MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) ozone data are assimilated; two assimilate SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography) observations instead. Analyses are compared to independent ozone observations covering the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the period July to November 2003. Biases and standard deviations are largest, and show the largest divergence between systems, in the troposphere, in the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere, in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere, and the Antarctic ozone hole region. However, in any particular area, apart from the troposphere, at least one system can be found that agrees well with independent data. In general, none of the differences can be linked to the assimilation technique (Kalman filter, three or four dimensional variational methods, direct inversion) or the system (CTM or NWP system). Where results diverge, a main explanation is the way ozone is modelled. It is important to correctly model transport at the tropical tropopause, to avoid positive biases and excessive structure in the ozone field. In the southern hemisphere ozone hole, only the analyses which correctly model heterogeneous ozone depletion are able to reproduce the near-complete ozone destruction over the pole. In the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere (above 5 hPa), some ozone photochemistry schemes caused large but easily remedied biases. The diurnal cycle of ozone in the mesosphere is not captured, except by the one system that includes a detailed treatment of mesospheric chemistry. These results indicate that when good observations are available for assimilation, the first priority for improving ozone DA systems is to improve the models. The analyses benefit strongly from the good quality of the MIPAS ozone observations. Using the analyses as a transfer standard, it is seen that MIPAS is similar to 5% higher than HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) in the mid and upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above 30 hPa), and of order 10% higher than ozonesonde and HALOE in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa to 30 hPa). Analyses based on SCIAMACHY total column are almost as good as the MIPAS analyses; analyses based on SCIAMACHY limb profiles are worse in some areas, due to problems in the SCIAMACHY retrievals.

Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.