Climate change and coastal waterbird populations - past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Innovative approach to building systems integration problems: Using systems theory, technological forecasting and scenario planning

Building services are worth about 2% GDP and are essential for the effective and efficient operations of the building. It is increasingly recognised that the value of a building is related to the way it supports the client organisation’s ongoing business operations. Building services are central to the functional performance of buildings and provide the necessary conditions for health, well-being, safety and security of the occupants. They frequently comprise several technologically distinct sub-systems and their design and construction requires the involvement of numerous disciplines and trades. Designers and contractors working on the same project are frequently employed by different companies. Materials and equipment is supplied by a diverse range of manufacturers. Facilities managers are responsible for operation of the building service in use. The coordination between these participants is crucially important to achieve optimum performance, but too often is neglected. This leaves room for serious faults. The need for effective integration is important. Modern technology offers increasing opportunities for integrated personal-control systems for lighting, ventilation and security as well as interoperability between systems. Opportunities for a new mode of systems integration are provided by the emergence of PFI/PPP procurements frameworks. This paper attempts to establish how systems integration can be achieved in the process of designing, constructing and operating building services. The essence of the paper therefore is to envisage the emergent organisational responses to the realisation of building services as an interactive systems network.

Serpa cheese: technological, biochemical and microbiological characterisation of a PDO ewe's milk cheese coagulated with Cynara cardunculus L

Portugal has a strong tradition of cheesemaking from raw ewe's milk; most of these cheeses are still made on a traditional farmhouse scale. Their production is protected by Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) but the specific biochemical aspects of the majority still need to be characterised. Two different cheesemaking procedures, traditional and semi-industrial, were compared technologically, biochemically and microbiologically. It was observed that, despite the highly significant difference between artisanal and semi-industrial cheeses (P < 0.001), both products were within the limits of national regulations for most parameters except maturation temperature, humidity and the value for the maturation index. Although the present study was not fully representative of the region, the results obtained suggest that the specific regulations for Serpa cheese should be revised and that other parameters, such as moisture and salt-in-moisture content, which are very much dependent on the cheesemaking process, should be included in order to characterise better this traditional cheese.

Modelling the uptake and growth kinetics of Penicillium glabrum in a tannic acid-containing solid-state fermentation for tannase production

A mathematical growth model for the batch solid-state fermentation process for fungal tannase production was developed and tested experimentally. The unstructured model describes the uptake and growth kinetics of Penicillium glabrum in an impregnated polyurethane foam substrate system. In general, good agreement between the experimental data and model simulations was obtained. Biomass, tannase and spore production are described by logistic kinetics with a time delay between biomass production and tannase and spore formation. Possible induction mechanisms for the latter are proposed. Hydrolysis of tannic acid, the main carbon source in the substrate system, is reasonably well described with Michaelis-Menten kinetics with time-varying enzyme concentration but a more complex reaction mechanism is suspected. The metabolism of gallic acid, a tannase-hydrolysis product of tannic acid, was shown to be growth limiting during the main growth phase. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global climate change and tree nutrition: effects of elevated CO2 and temperature

Although tree nutrition has not been the primary focus of large climate change experiments on trees, we are beginning to understand its links to elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes. This review focuses on the major nutrients, namely N and P, and deals with the effects of climate change on the processes that alter their cycling and availability. Current knowledge regarding biotic and abiotic agents of weathering, mobilization and immobilization of these elements will be discussed. To date, controlled environment studies have identified possible effects of climate change on tree nutrition. Only some of these findings, however, were verified in ecosystem scale experiments. Moreover, to be able to predict future effects of climate change on tree nutrition at this scale, we need to progress from studying effects of single factors to analysing interactions between factors such as elevated CO2, temperature or water availability.

Multiple stressors on biotic interactions: how climate change and alien species interact to affect pollination

Global change may substantially affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning but little is known about its effects on essential biotic interactions. Since different environmental drivers rarely act in isolation it is important to consider interactive effects. Here, we focus on how two key drivers of anthropogenic environmental change, climate change and the introduction of alien species, affect plant–pollinator interactions. Based on a literature survey we identify climatically sensitive aspects of species interactions, assess potential effects of climate change on these mechanisms, and derive hypotheses that may form the basis of future research. We find that both climate change and alien species will ultimately lead to the creation of novel communities. In these communities certain interactions may no longer occur while there will also be potential for the emergence of new relationships. Alien species can both partly compensate for the often negative effects of climate change but also amplify them in some cases. Since potential positive effects are often restricted to generalist interactions among species, climate change and alien species in combination can result in significant threats to more specialist interactions involving native species.

Porcine models for the metabolic syndrome, digestive and bone disorders: a general overview

The aim of this review article is to provide an overview of the role of pigs as a biomedical model for humans. The usefulness and limitations of porcine models have been discussed in terms of metabolic, cardiovascular, digestive and bone diseases in humans. Domestic pigs and minipigs are the main categories of pigs used as biomedical models. One drawback of minipigs is that they are in short supply and expensive compared with domestic pigs, which in contrast cost more to house, feed and medicate. Different porcine breeds show different responses to the induction of specific diseases. For example, ossabaw minipigs provide a better model than Yucatan for the metabolic syndrome as they exhibit obesity, insulin resistance and hypertension, all of which are absent in the Yucatan. Similar metabolic/physiological differences exist between domestic breeds (e.g. Meishan v. Pietrain). The modern commercial (e.g. Large White) domestic pig has been the preferred model for developmental programming due to the 2- to 3-fold variation in body weight among littermates providing a natural form of foetal growth retardation not observed in ancient (e.g. Meishan) domestic breeds. Pigs have been increasingly used to study chronic ischaemia, therapeutic angiogenesis, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and abdominal aortic aneurysm as their coronary anatomy and physiology are similar to humans. Type 1 and II diabetes can be induced in swine using dietary regimes and/or administration of streptozotocin. Pigs are a good and extensively used model for specific nutritional studies as their protein and lipid metabolism is comparable with humans, although pigs are not as sensitive to protein restriction as rodents. Neonatal and weanling pigs have been used to examine the pathophysiology and prevention/treatment of microbial-associated diseases and immune system disorders. A porcine model mimicking various degrees of prematurity in infants receiving total parenteral nutrition has been established to investigate gut development, amino acid metabolism and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Endoscopic therapeutic methods for upper gastrointestinal tract bleeding are being developed. Bone remodelling cycle in pigs is histologically more similar to humans than that of rats or mice, and is used to examine the relationship between menopause and osteoporosis. Work has also been conducted on dental implants in pigs to consider loading; however with caution as porcine bone remodels slightly faster than human bone. We conclude that pigs are a valuable translational model to bridge the gap between classical rodent models and humans in developing new therapies to aid human health.

Biomass partitioning and growth efficiency in four naturally regenerated forest tree species

Current forest growth models and yield tables are almost exclusively based on data from mature trees, reducing their applicability to young and developing stands. To address this gap, young European beech, sessile oak, Scots pine and Norway spruce trees approximately 0 to 10 years old were destructively sampled in a range of naturally regenerated forest stands in Central Europe. Diameter at base and height were first measured in situ for up to 175 individuals per species. Subsequently, the trees were excavated and dry biomass of foliage, branches, stems and roots was measured. Allometric relations were then used to calculate biomass allocation coefficients (BAC) and growth efficiency (GE) patterns in young trees. We found large differences in BAC and GE between broadleaves and conifers, but also between species within these categories. Both BAC and GE are strongly age-specific in young trees, their rapidly changing values reflecting different growth strategies in the earliest stages of growth. We show that linear relationships describing biomass allocation in older trees are not applicable in young trees. To accurately predict forest biomass and carbon stocks, forest growth models need to include species and age specific parameters of biomass allocation patterns.

Climate change and the British Uplands: evidence for decision-making

We summarise the work of an interdisciplinary network set up to explore the impacts of climate change in the British Uplands. In this CR Special, the contributors present the state of knowledge and this introduction synthesises this knowledge and derives implications for decision makers. The Uplands are valued semi-natural habitats, providing ecosystem services that have historically been taken for granted. For example, peat soils, which are mostly found in the Uplands, contain around 50% of the terrestrial carbon in the UK. Land management continues to be a driver of ecosystem service delivery. Degraded and managed peatlands are subject to erosion and carbon loss with negative impacts on biodiversity, carbon storage and water quality. Climate change is already being experienced in British Uplands and is likely to exacerbate these pressures. Climate envelope models suggest as much as 50% of British Uplands and peatlands will be exposed to climate stress by the end of the 21st century under low and high emissions scenarios. However, process-based models of the response of organic soils to this climate stress do not give a consistent indication of what this will mean for soil carbon: results range from a very slight increase in uptake, through a clear decline, to a net carbon loss. Preserving existing peat stocks is an important climate mitigation strategy, even if new peat stops forming. Preserving upland vegetation cover is a key win–win management strategy that will reduce erosion and loss of soil carbon, and protect a variety of services such as the continued delivery of a high quality water resource.

Global climate change and soil carbon stocks: predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO2 to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO2 levels and accelerated lobal warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single-pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 GtC by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 GtC decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.