Bio-energy retains its mitigation potential under elevated CO2

Background If biofuels are to be a viable substitute for fossil fuels, it is essential that they retain their potential to mitigate climate change under future atmospheric conditions. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] stimulates plant biomass production; however, the beneficial effects of increased production may be offset by higher energy costs in crop management. Methodology/Main findings We maintained full size poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) systems under both current ambient and future elevated [CO2] (550 ppm) and estimated their net energy and greenhouse gas balance. We show that a poplar SRC system is energy efficient and produces more energy than required for coppice management. Even more, elevated [CO2] will increase the net energy production and greenhouse gas balance of a SRC system with 18%. Managing the trees in shorter rotation cycles (i.e. 2 year cycles instead of 3 year cycles) will further enhance the benefits from elevated [CO2] on both the net energy and greenhouse gas balance. Conclusions/significance Adapting coppice management to the future atmospheric [CO2] is necessary to fully benefit from the climate mitigation potential of bio-energy systems. Further, a future increase in potential biomass production due to elevated [CO2] outweighs the increased production costs resulting in a northward extension of the area where SRC is greenhouse gas neutral. Currently, the main part of the European terrestrial carbon sink is found in forest biomass and attributed to harvesting less than the annual growth in wood. Because SRC is intensively managed, with a higher turnover in wood production than conventional forest, northward expansion of SRC is likely to erode the European terrestrial carbon sink.

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux.

Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July

Satellite data are used to quantify and examine the bias in the outgoing long-wave (LW) radiation over North Africa during May–July simulated by a range of climate models and the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Simulations from an ensemble-mean of multiple climate models overestimate outgoing clear-sky long-wave radiation (LWc) by more than 20 W m−2 relative to observations from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for May–July 2000 over parts of the west Sahara, and by 9 W m−2 for the North Africa region (20°W–30°E, 10–40°N). Experiments with the atmosphere-only version of the High-resolution Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HiGEM), suggest that including mineral dust radiative effects removes this bias. Furthermore, only by reducing surface temperature and emissivity by unrealistic amounts is it possible to explain the magnitude of the bias. Comparing simulations from the Met Office NWP model with satellite observations from Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instruments suggests that the model overestimates the LW by 20–40 W m−2 during North African summer. The bias declines over the period 2003–2008, although this is likely to relate to improvements in the model and inhomogeneity in the satellite time series. The bias in LWc coincides with high aerosol dust loading estimated from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), including during the GERBILS field campaign (18–28 June 2007) where model overestimates in LWc greater than 20 W m−2 and OMI-estimated aerosol optical depth (AOD) greater than 0.8 are concurrent around 20°N, 0–20°W. A model-minus-GERB LW bias of around 30 W m−2 coincides with high AOD during the period 18–21 June 2007, although differences in cloud cover also impact the model–GERB differences. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2010

A theoretical framework for energy and momentum consistency in subgrid-scale parameterization for climate models

A theoretical framework for the joint conservation of energy and momentum in the parameterization of subgrid-scale processes in climate models is presented. The framework couples a hydrostatic resolved (planetary scale) flow to a nonhydrostatic subgrid-scale (mesoscale) flow. The temporal and horizontal spatial scale separation between the planetary scale and mesoscale is imposed using multiple-scale asymptotics. Energy and momentum are exchanged through subgrid-scale flux convergences of heat, pressure, and momentum. The generation and dissipation of subgrid-scale energy and momentum is understood using wave-activity conservation laws that are derived by exploiting the (mesoscale) temporal and horizontal spatial homogeneities in the planetary-scale flow. The relations between these conservation laws and the planetary-scale dynamics represent generalized nonacceleration theorems. A derived relationship between the wave-activity fluxes-which represents a generalization of the second Eliassen-Palm theorem-is key to ensuring consistency between energy and momentum conservation. The framework includes a consistent formulation of heating and entropy production due to kinetic energy dissipation.

Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on observing and predicting Earth’s energy flows

The Earth’s climate, as well as planetary climates in general, is broadly regulated by three fundamental parameters: the total solar irradiance, the planetary albedo and the planetary emissivity. Observations from series of different satellites during the last three decades indicate that these three quantities are generally very stable. The total solar irradiation of some 1,361 W/m2 at 1 A.U. varies within 1 W/m2 during the 11-year solar cycle (Fröhlich 2012). The albedo is close to 29 % with minute changes from year to year but with marked zonal differences (Stevens and Schwartz 2012). The only exception to the overall stability is a minor decrease in the planetary emissivity (the ratio between the radiation to space and the radiation from the surface of the Earth). This is a consequence of the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts making the atmosphere gradually more opaque to long-wave terrestrial radiation. As a consequence, radiation processes are slightly out of balance as less heat is leaving the Earth in the form of thermal radiation than the amount of heat from the incoming solar radiation. Present space-based systems cannot yet measure this imbalance, but the effect can be inferred from the increase in heat in the oceans where most of the heat accumulates. Minor amounts of heat are used to melt ice and to warm the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth.

Constructing the frequency and wave normal distribution of whistler-mode wave power

We introduce a new methodology that allows the construction of wave frequency distributions due to growing incoherent whistler-mode waves in the magnetosphere. The technique combines the equations of geometric optics (i.e. raytracing) with the equation of transfer of radiation in an anisotropic lossy medium to obtain spectral energy density as a function of frequency and wavenormal angle. We describe the method in detail, and then demonstrate how it could be used in an idealised magnetosphere during quiet geomagnetic conditions. For a specific set of plasma conditions, we predict that the wave power peaks off the equator at ~15 degrees magnetic latitude. The new calculations predict that wave power as a function of frequency can be adequately described using a Gaussian function, but as a function of wavenormal angle, it more closely resembles a skew normal distribution. The technique described in this paper is the first known estimate of the parallel and oblique incoherent wave spectrum as a result of growing whistler-mode waves, and provides a means to incorporate self-consistent wave-particle interactions in a kinetic model of the magnetosphere over a large volume.

Do magnetospheric shear Alfvén waves generate sufficient electron energy flux to power the aurora?

Using a self-consistent drift-kinetic simulation code, we investigate whether electron acceleration owing to shear Alfvén waves in the plasma sheet boundary layer is sufficient to cause auroral brightening in the ionosphere. The free parameters used in the simulation code are guided by in situ observations of wave and plasma parameters in the magnetosphere at distances >4 RE from the Earth. For the perpendicular wavelength used in the study, which maps to ∼4 km at 110 km altitude, there is a clear amplitude threshold which determines whether magnetospheric shear Alfvén waves above the classical auroral acceleration region can excite sufficient electrons to create the aurora. Previous studies reported wave amplitudes that easily exceed this threshold; hence, the results reported in this paper demonstrate that auroral acceleration owing to shear Alfvén waves can occur in the magnetosphere at distances >4 RE from the Earth.

A Hamiltonian weak-wave model for shallow-water flow

A reduced dynamical model is derived which describes the interaction of weak inertia–gravity waves with nonlinear vortical motion in the context of rotating shallow–water flow. The formal scaling assumptions are (i) that there is a separation in timescales between the vortical motion and the inertia–gravity waves, and (ii) that the divergence is weak compared to the vorticity. The model is Hamiltonian, and possesses conservation laws analogous to those in the shallow–water equations. Unlike the shallow–water equations, the energy invariant is quadratic. Nonlinear stability theorems are derived for this system, and its linear eigenvalue properties are investigated in the context of some simple basic flows.

DK-1D: a drift-kinetic simulation tool for modelling the shear Alfvén wave and its interaction with collisionless plasma

We present a highly accurate tool for the simulation of shear Alfven waves (SAW) in collisionless plasma. SAW are important in space plasma environments because for small perpendicular scale lengths they can support an electric field parallel to the ambient magnetic field. Electrons can be accelerated by the parallel electric field and these waves have been implicated as the source of vibrant auroral displays. However, the parallel electric field carried by SAW is small in comparison to the perpendicular electric field of the wave, making it difficult to measure directly in the laboratory, or by satellites in the near-Earth plasma environment. In this paper, we present a simulation code that provides a means to study in detail the SAW-particle interaction in both space and laboratory plasma. Using idealised, small-amplitude propagating waves with a single perpendicular wavenumber, the simulation code accurately reproduces the damping rates and parallel electric field amplitudes predicted by linear theory for varying temperatures and perpendicular scale lengths. We present a rigorous kinetic derivation of the parallel electric field strength for small-amplitude SAW and show that commonly-used inertial and kinetic approximations are valid except for where the ratio of thermal to Alfv\'{e}n speed is between 0.7 and 1.0. We also present nonlinear simulations of large-amplitude waves and show that in cases of strong damping, the damping rates and parallel electric field strength deviate from linear predictions when wave energies are greater than only a few percent of the plasma kinetic energy, a situation which is often observed in the magnetosphere. The drift-kinetic code provides reliable, testable predictions of the parallel electric field strength which can be investigated directly in the laboratory, and will help to bridge the gap between studies of SAW in man-made and naturally occuring plasma.

Nonlinear wave-activity conservation laws and Hamiltonian structure for the two-dimensional anelastic equations

Exact, finite-amplitude, local wave-activity conservation laws are derived for disturbances to steady flows in the context of the two-dimensional anelastic equations. The conservation laws are expressed entirely in terms of Eulerian quantities, and have the property that, in the limit of a small-amplitude, slowly varying, monochromatic wave train, the wave-activity density A and flux F, when averaged over phase, satisfy F = cgA where cg is the group velocity of the waves. For nonparallel steady flows, the only conserved wave activity is a form of disturbance pseudoenergy; when the steady flow is parallel, there is in addition a conservation law for the disturbance pseudomomentum. The above results are obtained not only for isentropic background states (which give the so-called “deep form” of the anelastic equations), but also for arbitrary background potential-temperature profiles θ0(z) so long as the variation in θ0(z) over the depth of the fluid is small compared with θ0 itself. The Hamiltonian structure of the equations is established in both cases, and its symmetry properties discussed. An expression for available potential energy is also derived that, for the case of a stably stratified background state (i.e., dθ0/dz > 0), is locally positive definite; the expression is valid for fully three-dimensional flow. The counterparts to results for the two-dimensional Boussinesq equations are also noted.

Characterization of energy flux partitioning in urban environments: links with surface seasonal properties

A better understanding of links between the properties of the urban environment and the exchange to the atmosphere is central to a wide range of applications. The numerous measurements of surface energy balance data in urban areas enable intercomparison of observed fluxes from distinct environments. This study analyzes a large database in two new ways. First, instead of normalizing fluxes using net all-wave radiation only the incoming radiative fluxes are used, to remove the surface attributes from the denominator. Second, because data are now available year-round, indices are developed to characterize the fraction of the surface (built; vegetation) actively engaged in energy exchanges. These account for shading patterns within city streets and seasonal changes in vegetation phenology; their impact on the partitioning of the incoming radiation is analyzed. Data from 19 sites in North America, Europe, Africa, and Asia (including 6-yr-long observation campaigns) are used to derive generalized surface–flux relations. The midday-period outgoing radiative fraction decreases with an increasing total active surface index, the stored energy fraction increases with an active built index, and the latent heat fraction increases with an active vegetated index. Parameterizations of these energy exchange ratios as a function of the surface indices [i.e., the Flux Ratio–Active Index Surface Exchange (FRAISE) scheme] are developed. These are used to define four urban zones that characterize energy partitioning on the basis of their active surface indices. An independent evaluation of FRAISE, using three additional sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE), yields accurate predictions of the midday flux partitioning at each location.

The surface urban energy and water balance scheme (SUEWS): evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver

An urban energy and water balance model is presented which uses a small number of commonly measured meteorological variables and information about the surface cover. Rates of evaporation-interception for a single layer with multiple surface types (paved, buildings, coniferous trees and/or shrubs, deciduous trees and/or shrubs, irrigated grass, non-irrigated grass and water) are calculated. Below each surface type, except water, there is a single soil layer. At each time step the moisture state of each surface is calculated. Horizontal water movements at the surface and in the soil are incorporated. Particular attention is given to the surface conductance used to model evaporation and its parameters. The model is tested against direct flux measurements carried out over a number of years in Vancouver, Canada and Los Angeles, USA. At all measurement sites the model is able to simulate the net all-wave radiation and turbulent sensible and latent heat well (RMSE = 25–47 W m−2, 30–64 and 20–56 W m−2, respectively). The model reproduces the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes but typically underestimates latent heat flux and overestimates sensible heat flux in the day time. The model tracks measured surface wetness and simulates the variations in soil moisture content. It is able to respond correctly to short-term events as well as annual changes. The largest uncertainty relates to the determination of surface conductance. The model has the potential be used for multiple applications; for example, to predict effects of regulation on urban water use, landscaping and planning scenarios, or to assess climate mitigation strategies.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment – part I: temporal variability of long-term observations in central London

Though anthropogenic impacts on boundary layer climates are expected to be large in dense urban areas, to date very few studies of energy flux observations are available. We report on 3.5 years of measurements gathered in central London, UK. Radiometer and eddy covariance observations at two adjacent sites, at different heights, were analysed at various temporal scales and with respect to meteorological conditions, such as cloud cover. Although the evaporative flux is generally small due to low moisture availability and a predominately impervious surface, the enhancement following rainfall usually lasts for 12–18 h. As both the latent and sensible heat fluxes are larger in the afternoon, they maintain a relatively consistent Bowen ratio throughout the middle of the day. Strong storage and anthropogenic heat fluxes sustain high and persistently positive sensible heat fluxes. At the monthly time scale, the urban surface often loses more energy by this turbulent heat flux than is gained from net all-wave radiation. Auxiliary anthropogenic heat flux information suggest human activities in the study area are sufficient to provide this energy.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 1: Structure parameters

Scintillometry, a form of ground-based remote sensing, provides the capability to estimate surface heat fluxes over scales of a few hundred metres to kilometres. Measurements are spatial averages, making this technique particularly valuable over areas with moderate heterogeneity such as mixed agricultural or urban environments. In this study, we present the structure parameters of temperature and humidity, which can be related to the sensible and latent heat fluxes through similarity theory, for a suburban area in the UK. The fluxes are provided in the second paper of this two-part series. A millimetre-wave scintillometer was combined with an infrared scintillometer along a 5.5 km path over northern Swindon. The pairing of these two wavelengths offers sensitivity to both temperature and humidity fluctuations, and the correlation between wavelengths is also used to retrieve the path-averaged temperature–humidity correlation. Comparison is made with structure parameters calculated from an eddy covariance station located close to the centre of the scintillometer path. The performance of the measurement techniques under different conditions is discussed. Similar behaviour is seen between the two data sets at sub-daily timescales. For the two summer-to-winter periods presented here, similar evolution is displayed across the seasons. A higher vegetation fraction within the scintillometer source area is consistent with the lower Bowen ratio observed (midday Bowen ratio < 1) compared with more built-up areas around the eddy covariance station. The energy partitioning is further explored in the companion paper.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 2: Large-area sensible and latent heat fluxes

A millimetre-wave scintillometer was paired with an infrared scintillometer, enabling estimation of large-area evapotranspiration across northern Swindon, a suburban area in the UK. Both sensible and latent heat fluxes can be obtained using this "two-wavelength" technique, as it is able to provide both temperature and humidity structure parameters, offering a major advantage over conventional single-wavelength scintillometry. The first paper of this two-part series presented the measurement theory and structure parameters. In this second paper, heat fluxes are obtained and analysed. These fluxes, estimated using two-wavelength scintillometry over an urban area, are the first of their kind. Source area modelling suggests the scintillometric fluxes are representative of 5–10 km2. For comparison, local-scale (0.05–0.5 km2) fluxes were measured by an eddy covariance station. Similar responses to seasonal changes are evident at the different scales but the energy partitioning varies between source areas. The response to moisture availability is explored using data from 2 consecutive years with contrasting rainfall patterns (2011–2012). This extensive data set offers insight into urban surface-atmosphere interactions and demonstrates the potential for two-wavelength scintillometry to deliver fluxes over mixed land cover, typically representative of an area 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than for eddy covariance measurements. Fluxes at this scale are extremely valuable for hydro-meteorological model evaluation and assessment of satellite data products