Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion

A suite of climate model experiments indicates that 20th Century increases in ocean heat content and sea-level ( via thermal expansion) were substantially reduced by the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The volcanically-induced cooling of the ocean surface is subducted into deeper ocean layers, where it persists for decades. Temporary reductions in ocean heat content associated with the comparable eruptions of El Chichon ( 1982) and Pinatubo ( 1991) were much shorter lived because they occurred relative to a non-stationary background of large, anthropogenically-forced ocean warming. Our results suggest that inclusion of the effects of Krakatoa ( and perhaps even earlier eruptions) is important for reliable simulation of 20th century ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. Inter-model differences in the oceanic thermal response to Krakatoa are large and arise from differences in external forcing, model physics, and experimental design. Systematic experimentation is required to quantify the relative importance of these factors. The next generation of historical forcing experiments may require more careful treatment of pre-industrial volcanic aerosol loadings.

Correlation of magnetic field intensities and solar wind speeds of events observed by ACE

The relationship between the magnetic field intensity and speed of solar wind events is examined using ∼3 years of data from the ACE spacecraft. No preselection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or magnetic clouds is carried out. The correlation between the field intensity and maximum speed is shown to increase significantly when |B| > 18 nT for 3 hours or more. Of the 24 events satisfying this criterion, 50% are magnetic clouds, the remaining half having no ordered field structure. A weaker correlation also exists between southward magnetic field and speed. Sixteen of the events are associated with halo CMEs leaving the Sun 2 to 4 days prior to the leading edge of the events arriving at ACE. Events selected by speed thresholds show no significant correlation, suggesting different relations between field intensity and speed for fast solar wind streams and ICMEs.

The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter - the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere - the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact.

Self-charging of the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash plume

Abstract Volcanic plumes generate lightning from the electrification of plume particles. Volcanic plume charging at over 1200 km from its source was observed from in situ balloon sampling of the April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull plume over Scotland. Whilst upper and lower edge charging of a horizontal plume is expected from fair weather atmospheric electricity, the plume over Scotland showed sustained positive charge well beneath the upper plume edge. At these distances from the source, the charging cannot be a remnant of the eruption itself because of charge relaxation in the finite conductivity of atmospheric air.

Transpolar voltage and polar cap flux during the substorm cycle and steady convection events

Transpolar voltages observed during traversals of the polar cap by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-13 spacecraft during 2001 are analyzed using the expanding-contracting polar cap model of ionospheric convection. Each of the 10,216 passes is classified by its substorm phase or as a steady convection event (SCE) by inspection of the AE indices. For all phases, we detect a contribution to the transpolar voltage by reconnection in both the dayside magnetopause and in the crosstail current sheet. Detection of the IMF influence is 97% certain during quiet intervals and >99% certain during substorm/SCE growth phases but falls to 75% in substorm expansion phases: It is only 27% during SCEs. Detection of the influence of the nightside voltage is only 19% certain during growth phases, rising during expansion phases to a peak of 96% in recovery phases: During SCEs, it is >99%. The voltage during SCEs is dominated by the nightside, not the dayside, reconnection. On average, substorm expansion phases halt the growth phase rise in polar cap flux rather than reversing it. The main destruction of the excess open flux takes place during the 6- to 10-hour interval after the recovery phase (as seen in AE) and at a rate which is relatively independent of polar cap flux because the NENL has by then retreated to the far tail. The best estimate of the voltage associated with viscous-like transfer of closed field lines into the tail is around 10 kV.

The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

An optical study of multiple NEIAL events driven by low energy electron precipitation

Optical data are compared with EISCAT radar observations of multiple Naturally Enhanced Ion-Acoustic Line (NEIAL) events in the dayside cusp. This study uses narrow field of view cameras to observe small-scale, short-lived auroral features. Using multiple-wavelength optical observations, a direct link between NEIAL occurrences and low energy (about 100 eV) optical emissions is shown. This is consistent with the Langmuir wave decay interpretation of NEIALs being driven by streams of low-energy electrons. Modelling work connected with this study shows that, for the measured ionospheric conditions and precipitation characteristics, growth of unstable Langmuir (electron plasma) waves can occur, which decay into ion-acoustic wave modes. The link with low energy optical emissions shown here, will enable future studies of the shape, extent, lifetime, grouping and motions of NEIALs.

Bayesian decision procedures for dose-escalation based on evidence of undesirable events and therapeutic benefit.

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on bivariate observations of undesirable events and signs of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches taking into account only the undesirable outcomes. Logistic regression models are used to model the two responses, which are both assumed to take a binary form. A prior distribution for the unknown model parameters is suggested and an optional safety constraint can be included. Gain functions to be maximized are formulated in terms of accurate estimation of the limits of a therapeutic window or optimal treatment of the next cohort of subjects, although the approach could be applied to achieve any of a wide variety of objectives. The designs introduced are illustrated through simulation and retrospective implementation to a completed dose-escalation study. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sequential genome-wide association studies for monitoring adverse events in the clinical evaluation of new drugs

Pharmacovigilance, the monitoring of adverse events (AEs), is an integral part in the clinical evaluation of a new drug. Until recently, attempts to relate the incidence of AEs to putative causes have been restricted to the evaluation of simple demographic and environmental factors. The advent of large-scale genotyping, however, provides an opportunity to look for associations between AEs and genetic markers, such as single nucleotides polymorphisms (SNPs). It is envisaged that a very large number of SNPs, possibly over 500 000, will be used in pharmacovigilance in an attempt to identify any genetic difference between patients who have experienced an AE and those who have not. We propose a sequential genome-wide association test for analysing AEs as they arise, allowing evidence-based decision-making at the earliest opportunity. This gives us the capability of quickly establishing whether there is a group of patients at high-risk of an AE based upon their DNA. Our method provides a valid test which takes account of linkage disequilibrium and allows for the sequential nature of the procedure. The method is more powerful than using a correction, such as idák, that assumes that the tests are independent. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Novel high-resolution characterization of ancient DNA reveals C > U-type base modification events as the sole cause of post mortem miscoding lesions

Ancient DNA (aDNA) research has long depended on the power of PCR to amplify trace amounts of surviving genetic material from preserved specimens. While PCR permits specific loci to be targeted and amplified, in many ways it can be intrinsically unsuited to damaged and degraded aDNA templates. PCR amplification of aDNA can produce highly-skewed distributions with significant contributions from miscoding lesion damage and non-authentic sequence artefacts. As traditional PCR-based approaches have been unable to fully resolve the molecular nature of aDNA damage over many years, we have developed a novel single primer extension (SPEX)-based approach to generate more accurate sequence information. SPEX targets selected template strands at defined loci and can generate a quantifiable redundancy of coverage; providing new insights into the molecular nature of aDNA damage and fragmentation. SPEX sequence data reveals inherent limitations in both traditional and metagenomic PCR-based approaches to aDNA, which can make current damage analyses and correct genotyping of ancient specimens problematic. In contrast to previous aDNA studies, SPEX provides strong quantitative evidence that C U-type base modifications are the sole cause of authentic endogenous damage-derived miscoding lesions. This new approach could allow ancient specimens to be genotyped with unprecedented accuracy.

Lag-1 sparing in the attentional blink: benefits and costs of integrating two events into a single episode

When people monitor a visual stream of rapidly presented stimuli for two targets (T1 and T2), they often miss T2 if it falls into a time window of about half a second after T1 onset-the attentional blink. However, if T2 immediately follows T1, performance is often reported being as good as that at long lags-the so-called Lag-1 sparing effect. Two experiments investigated the mechanisms underlying this effect. Experiment 1 showed that, at Lag 1, requiring subjects to correctly report both identity and temporal order of targets produces relatively good performance on T2 but relatively bad performance on T1. Experiment 2 confirmed that subjects often confuse target order at short lags, especially if the two targets are equally easy to discriminate. Results suggest that, if two targets appear in close succession, they compete for attentional resources. If the two competitors are of unequal strength the stronger one is more likely to win and be reported at the expense of the other. If the two are equally strong, however, they will often be integrated into the same attentional episode and thus get both access to attentional resources. But this comes with a cost, as it eliminates information about the targets' temporal order.

The roles of perirhinal cortex, postrhinal cortex, and the fornix in memory for objects, contexts, and events in the rat

Investigation of the anatomical substructure of the medial temporal lobe has revealed a number of highly interconnected areas, which has led some to propose that the region operates as a unitary memory system. However, here we outline the results of a number of studies from our laboratories, which investigate the contributions of the rat's perirhinal cortex and postrhinal cortex to memory, concentrating particularly on their respective roles in memory for objects. By contrasting patterns of impairment and spared abilities on a number of related tasks, we suggest that perirhinal cortex and postrhinal cortex make distinctive contributions to learning and memory: for example, that postrhinal cortex is important in learning about within-scene position and context. We also provide evidence that despite the strong connectivity between these cortical regions and the hippocampus, the hippocampus, as evidenced by lesions of the fornix, has a distinct function of its own-combining information about objects, positions, and contexts.

A fuzzy multi-criteria decision approach for enhanced auto-tracking of seismic events

The main activity carried out by the geophysicist when interpreting seismic data, in terms of both importance and time spent is tracking (or picking) seismic events. in practice, this activity turns out to be rather challenging, particularly when the targeted event is interrupted by discontinuities such as geological faults or exhibits lateral changes in seismic character. In recent years, several automated schemes, known as auto-trackers, have been developed to assist the interpreter in this tedious and time-consuming task. The automatic tracking tool available in modem interpretation software packages often employs artificial neural networks (ANN's) to identify seismic picks belonging to target events through a pattern recognition process. The ability of ANNs to track horizons across discontinuities largely depends on how reliably data patterns characterise these horizons. While seismic attributes are commonly used to characterise amplitude peaks forming a seismic horizon, some researchers in the field claim that inherent seismic information is lost in the attribute extraction process and advocate instead the use of raw data (amplitude samples). This paper investigates the performance of ANNs using either characterisation methods, and demonstrates how the complementarity of both seismic attributes and raw data can be exploited in conjunction with other geological information in a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to achieve an enhanced auto-tracking performance.