Current changes in tropical precipitation

Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.

The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

Overview: oxidant and particle photochemical processes above a south-east Asian tropical rain forest (the OP3 project); introduction, rationale, location, characteristics and tools

In April–July 2008, intensive measurements were made of atmospheric composition and chemistry in Sabah, Malaysia, as part of the "Oxidant and particle photochemical processes above a South-East Asian tropical rainforest" (OP3) project. Fluxes and concentrations of trace gases and particles were made from and above the rainforest canopy at the Bukit Atur Global Atmosphere Watch station and at the nearby Sabahmas oil palm plantation, using both ground-based and airborne measurements. Here, the measurement and modelling strategies used, the characteristics of the sites and an overview of data obtained are described. Composition measurements show that the rainforest site was not significantly impacted by anthropogenic pollution, and this is confirmed by satellite retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. The dominant modulators of atmospheric chemistry at the rainforest site were therefore emissions of BVOCs and soil emissions of reactive nitrogen oxides. At the observed BVOC:NOx volume mixing ratio (~100 pptv/pptv), current chemical models suggest that daytime maximum OH concentrations should be ca. 105 radicals cm−3, but observed OH concentrations were an order of magnitude greater than this. We confirm, therefore, previous measurements that suggest that an unexplained source of OH must exist above tropical rainforest and we continue to interrogate the data to find explanations for this.

Origin and structure of Devensian depressions at Letton, Herefordshire

Groups of circular to oval enclosed depressions in soft sediments of Pleistocene age are relatively common in north-west Europe. These features are normally interpreted as being either glacial or periglacial in origin. Where these features are developed in glacial sediments, a glacial (and specifically ‘kettle hole’) genesis is considered most likely. Some groups of features, however, have been re-interpreted as being periglacial in origin and are thought to be the remains of cryogenic mounds (former pingos or palsas/lithalsas). The problem at many sites, of course, is correct identification and previously this was often resolved through extensive trenching of the sediments. The use of geophysics in the form of electrical resistivity tomography and ground probing radar, however, can aid investigation and interpretation and is less invasive. A group of enclosed depressions in the Letton area of Herefordshire within the Last Glacial Maximum ice limit (Late Devensian) have been investigated in this way. The morphology and internal structure of the features and their existence in glaciolacustrine sediments of Late Devensian age strongly suggests that these depressions are kettle holes resulting from ice block discharge into a shallow lakes or lakes, and hence a glacial origin is supported. The lack of any ramparts surrounding the depressions (at the surface or any evidence of these at depth) and the fact that they do not overlap (‘mutually interfere’) indicates that they are not the remains of cryogenic mounds.