Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

A copyright exception for private copying in the United Kingdom

This paper discusses the proposed copyright exception for private copying in the UK in the aftermath of the Hargreaves Review. It explores the options by which the exception shall retain a realistic scope without significantly impacting on the interests of the rightholders and addresses the concept of possible harm that may arise due to private copying. It concludes that an exception for copying of content legally owned by an individual to another medium or device for private use corresponds to consumers’ reasonable expectations without causing more than minimal harm to the rightholders’ interests and without requiring an accompanying introduction of a fair compensation scheme.

Seasonal variation in the fatty acid composition of milk available at retail in the United Kingdom and implications for dietary intake

Milk and dairy products are major sources of fat in the human diet, but there are few detailed reports on the fatty acid composition of retail milk, trans fatty acids in particular, and how these change throughout the year. Semi-skimmed milk was collected monthly for one year from five supermarkets and analysed for fatty acid composition. Relative to winter, milk sold in the summer contained lower total saturated fatty acid (SFA; 67 vs 72 g/100 g fatty acids) and higher cis-monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA; 23 vs 21 g/100 g fatty acids) and total trans fatty acid (6.5 vs 4.5 g/100 g fatty acids) concentrations. Concentrations of most trans-18:1 and -18:2 isomers also exhibited seasonal variation. Results were applied to national dietary intakes, and indicated that monthly variation in the fatty acid composition of milk available at retail has limited influence on total dietary fatty acid consumption by UK adults.

Is Energy Efficiency Priced in the Housing Market? Some Evidence from the United Kingdom.

This paper investigates whether energy performance ratings, as measured by mandatory Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs), are reflected in the sale prices of residential properties. This is the first large-scale empirical study of this topic in the UK involving approximately 400,000 dwellings in the period from 1995 to 2011. Applying hedonic regression and an augmented repeat sales regression, we find a positive relationship between the energy efficiency rating of a dwelling and the transaction price per square metre. The price effects of superior energy performance tend to be higher for terraced dwellings and flats compared to detached and semi-detached dwellings. The evidence is less clear-cut for house price growth rates but remains supportive of an overall positive association. Overall, the results of this study appear to support the hypothesis that energy efficiency levels are reflected in UK house prices, at least in recent years.

Double jeopardy: the potential for problems when bats interact with breathable roofing membranes in the United Kingdom

In order to reduce environmental impacts and achieve sustainability, it is important to balance the interactions between the built and natural environment. The construction industry is becoming more aware of ecological concerns and the importance that biodiversity and maintenance ecosystem services has for sustainability. Bats constitute an important component of urban biodiversity and several species in the UK are highly dependent on buildings, making them particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic and environmental changes. Many buildings suitable for use as bat roosts often require re-roofing as they age and traditional bituminous roofing felts are frequently being replaced with breathable roofing membranes (BRMs). In the UK new building regulations and modern materials may substantially reduce the viability of existing roosts, yet at thesame time building regulations require that materials be fit for purpose. Reports suggest that both bats and BRMs may experience problems when the two interact. Such information makes it important to understand how house dwelling bats and BRMs may be affected. This paper considers the possible ways in which bats and BRMs may interact, how this could affect existing bat roosts within buildings and the implications for BRM service life predictions and warranties. Keywords –Breathable Roofing Membranes, Bats in Buildings, Material Deterioration, Sustainability, Conservation, Biodiversit

On the environmental valuation of catastrophe: revisiting mining disasters in the United Kingdom, 1851-1962

In the context of environmental valuation of natural disasters, an important component of the evaluation procedure lies in determining the periodicity of events. This paper explores alternative methodologies for determining such periodicity, illustrating the advantages and the disadvantages of the separate methods and their comparative predictions. The procedures employ Bayesian inference and explore recent advances in computational aspects of mixtures methodology. The procedures are applied to the classic data set of Maguire et al (Biometrika, 1952) which was subsequently updated by Jarrett (Biometrika, 1979) and which comprise the seminal investigations examining the periodicity of mining disasters within the United Kingdom, 1851-1962.

Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Assessing the value of imperfect biocontainment nationally: rapeseed in the United Kingdom as an exemplar

Paternal biocontainment methods (PBMs) act by preventing pollen-mediated transgene flow. They are compromised by transgene escape via the crop-maternal line. We therefore assess the efficacy of PBMs for transgenic rapeseed (Brassica napus) biocontainment across the United Kingdom by estimating crop-maternal hybridization with its two progenitor species. We used remote sensing, field surveys, agricultural statistics, and meta-analysis to determine the extent of sympatry between the crop and populations of riparian and weedy B. rapa and B. oleracea. We then estimated the incidence of crop-maternal hybridization across all settings to predict the efficacy of PBMs. Evidence of crop chloroplast capture by the progenitors was expanded to a national scale, revealing that crop-maternal gene flow occurs at widely variable rates and is dependent on both the recipient and setting. We use these data to explore the value that this kind of biocontainment can bring to genetic modification (GM) risk management in terms of reducing the impact that hybrids have on the environment rather than preventing or reducing hybrid abundance per se.

France and the United Kingdom in the Security Council

The chapter examines the role of the UK and France in the Security Council during the last 20 years.

From warfare to welfare: veterans, military charities and the blurred spatiality of post-service welfare in the United Kingdom

The military offers a form of welfare-for-work but when personnel leave they lose this safety net, a loss exacerbated by the rollback neoliberalism of the contemporary welfare state. Increasingly the third sector has stepped in to address veterans’ welfare needs through operating within and across military/civilian and state/market/community spaces and cultures. In this paper we use both veterans’ and military charities’ experiences to analyse the complex politics that govern the liminal boundary zone of post-military welfare. Through exploring ‘crossing’ and ‘bridging’ we conceptualise military charities as ‘boundary subjects’, active yet dependent on the continuation of the civilian-military binary, and argue that the latter is better understood as a multidirectional, multiscalar and contextual continuum. Post-military welfare emerges as a competitive, confused and confusing assemblage that needs to be made more navigable in order to better support the ‘heroic poor’.