A potential lag between the open solar magnetic source flux and solar EUV and X-ray emissions as measured by the Earth's ionosphere during total solar eclipses

Measurements of the ionospheric E-region during total solar eclipses have been used to provide information about the evolution of the solar magnetic field and EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere. By measuring levels of ionisation during an eclipse and comparing these measurements with an estimate of the unperturbed ionisation levels (such as those made during a control day, where available) it is possible to estimate the percentage of ionising radiation being emitted by the solar corona and chromosphere. Previously unpublished data from the two eclipses presented here are particularly valuable as they provide information that supplements the data published to date. The eclipse of 23 October 1976 over Australia provides information in a data gap that would otherwise have spanned the years 1966 to 1991. The eclipse of 4 December 2002 over Southern Africa is important as it extends the published sequence of measurements. Comparing measurements from eclipses between 1932 and 2002 with the solar magnetic source flux reveals that changes in the solar EUV and X-ray flux lag the open source flux measurements by approximately 1.5 years. We suggest that this unexpected result comes about from changes to the relative size of the limb corona between eclipses, with the lag representing the time taken to populate the coronal field with plasma hot enough to emit the EUV and X-rays ionising our atmosphere.

The Clean Development Mechanism as ethical development? Reconciling emissions trading and local development

This paper examines the ethics of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in its architecture, processes and outcomes and its potential to allocate resources to the poor as ‘ethical development’. Two specific examples of CDM projects help us to explore some of the quandaries that seem to be quickly defining operating procedure for the CDM in its efforts to bring entitlementsto the poor. The paper concludes with reflections on the normative and social complications of the CDM and closes with three key areas of further investigation.

Methodology To model the energy and greenhouse gas emissions of electronic software distributions

A new electronic software distribution (ESD) life cycle analysis (LCA)methodology and model structure were constructed to calculate energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In order to counteract the use of high level, top-down modeling efforts, and to increase result accuracy, a focus upon device details and data routes was taken. In order to compare ESD to a relevant physical distribution alternative,physical model boundaries and variables were described. The methodology was compiled from the analysis and operational data of a major online store which provides ESD and physical distribution options. The ESD method included the calculation of power consumption of data center server and networking devices. An in-depth method to calculate server efficiency and utilization was also included to account for virtualization and server efficiency features. Internet transfer power consumption was analyzed taking into account the number of data hops and networking devices used. The power consumed by online browsing and downloading was also factored into the model. The embedded CO2e of server and networking devices was proportioned to each ESD process. Three U.K.-based ESD scenarios were analyzed using the model which revealed potential CO2e savings of 83% when ESD was used over physical distribution. Results also highlighted the importance of server efficiency and utilization methods.

An improvement in clear-air turbulence forecasting based on spontaneous imbalance theory: the ULTURB algorithm

Recent research has shown that Lighthill–Ford spontaneous gravity wave generation theory, when applied to numerical model data, can help predict areas of clear-air turbulence. It is hypothesized that this is the case because spontaneously generated atmospheric gravity waves may initiate turbulence by locally modifying the stability and wind shear. As an improvement on the original research, this paper describes the creation of an ‘operational’ algorithm (ULTURB) with three modifications to the original method: (1) extending the altitude range for which the method is effective downward to the top of the boundary layer, (2) adding turbulent kinetic energy production from the environment to the locally produced turbulent kinetic energy production, and, (3) transforming turbulent kinetic energy dissipation to eddy dissipation rate, the turbulence metric becoming the worldwide ‘standard’. In a comparison of ULTURB with the original method and with the Graphical Turbulence Guidance second version (GTG2) automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level aircraft turbulence ULTURB performed better for all turbulence intensities. Since ULTURB, unlike GTG2, is founded on a self-consistent dynamical theory, it may offer forecasters better insight into the causes of the clear-air turbulence and may ultimately enhance its predictability.

Effluent quality and ammonia emissions from out-wintering pads in England, Wales and Ireland

Out-wintering pads offer a reduced cost system for wintering cattle, minimising damage to pasture, providing animal welfare and production benefits, and generate, potentially, a more manageable effluent and lower ammonia emissions. The objectives of the present study were (i) to contribute to improved understanding of the factors impacting on effluent quality, ammonia emissions and animal welfare via observations on four farm-based out-wintering pads (ComOWPs) in England, Wales and Ireland and more detailed studies undertaken on four experimental OWPs (ExpOWPs) constructed at Rothamsted Research North Wyke, Devon, England and (ii) to corroborate the effluent quality data from both the ComOWPs and the ExpOWPs, with findings in the literature. Woodchip size, feeding management and area allowance were the treatment factors applied on the ExpOWPs. These three factors were randomised across the four ExpOWPs, over four 6–7 week periods. Effluent quality from the ExpOWPs was sampled frequently in a flow proportional way and analysed for total N (TN); total P (TP); total solids (TS); ammonium-N (NH4+-N); nitrate-N (NO3−-N). Beef cattle were periodically weighed for determination of live weight gain (LWG). An approximate nitrogen balance was calculated as a means of understanding its partitioning and fate during and after the ExpOWPs use. Effluent quality from the ComOWPs was sampled frequently, also in a flow-proportional way, and analysed for TN, TP, TS, NH4+-N, NO3−-N, total K and COD. Effluent quality data from the ExpOWPs showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) between treatments, with average concentrations of 1095 mg l−1, and 806 mg l−1, for TN and NH4+-N, respectively. Average effluent concentrations from the ComOWPs were 356 mg l−1 TN and 124 mg l−1 NH4+-N. Ammonia emissions from the ExpOWPs showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) between the treatments, with average mean emission rates of 2.5 g m−2 d−1 NH3-N, respectively. A positive correlation was established between NH3-N emission rate and wind speed. Emission rates from the ComOWPs ranged from 0.7 to 1.6 g m−2 d−1 NH3-N. Average daily LWG on the ExpOWPs was 1.33 kg steer−1 d−1. The effluent from both the ComOWPs and ExpOWPs were more similar with dirty water and of consistently lower strength than beef cattle slurry, as supported by findings in the literature, and therefore, it is suggested to be subject to the regulatory requirements of dirty water rather than slurry.

Radiative forcing due to aviation water vapour emissions

Three emissions inventories have been used with a fully Lagrangian trajectory model to calculate the stratospheric accumulation of water vapour emissions from aircraft, and the resulting radiative forcing. The annual and global mean radiative forcing due to present-day aviation water vapour emissions has been found to be 0.9 [0.3 to 1.4] mW m^2. This is around a factor of three smaller than the value given in recent assessments, and the upper bound is much lower than a recently suggested 20 mW m^2 upper bound. This forcing is sensitive to the vertical distribution of emissions, and, to a lesser extent, interannual variability in meteorology. Large differences in the vertical distribution of emissions within the inventories have been identified, which result in the choice of inventory being the largest source of differences in the calculation of the radiative forcing due to the emissions. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere trajectories demonstrates that the assumption of an e-folding time is not always appropriate for stratospheric emissions. A linear model is more representative for emissions that enter the stratosphere far above the tropopause.

On a stochastic Trotter formula with application to spontaneous localization models

We consider the relation between so called continuous localization models—i.e. non-linear stochastic Schrödinger evolutions—and the discrete GRW-model of wave function collapse. The former can be understood as scaling limit of the GRW process. The proof relies on a stochastic Trotter formula, which is of interest in its own right. Our Trotter formula also allows to complement results on existence theory of stochastic Schrödinger evolutions by Holevo and Mora/Rebolledo.

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from UK hotels in 2030

The feasibility of halving greenhousegasemissions from hotels by 2030 has been studied as part of the Carbon Vision Buildings Programme. The aim of that programme was to study ways of reducing emissions from the existing stock because it will be responsible for the majority of building emissions over the next few decades. The work was carried out using detailed computer simulation using the ESP-r tool. Two hotels were studied, one older and converted and the other newer and purpose-built, with the aim of representing the most common UKhotel types. The effects were studied of interventions expected to be available in 2030 including fabric improvements, HVAC changes, lighting and appliance improvements and renewable energy generation. The main finding was that it is technically feasible to reduce emissions by 50% without compromising guest comfort. Ranking of the interventions was problematical for several reasons including interdependence and the impacts on boiler sizing of large reductions in the heating load

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Climate–carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO2 emitted does not depend on the background CO2 concentration2; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions3, 4, 5; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO2 is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries3, 6, 7, 8. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon–climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0–2.1 °C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate–carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO2 emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate–carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate–carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO2-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures1. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain1, 2, 3, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions9, 10, 11. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 °C.

A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP.

Latitudinal variation of the effect of aviation NOx emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane and related climate metrics

We evaluate the response to regional and latitudinal changes in aircraft NOx emissions using several climate metrics (radiative forcing (RF), Global Warming Potential (GWP), Global Temperature change Potential (GTP)). Global chemistry transport model integrations were performed with sustained perturbations in regional aircraft and aircraft-like NOx emissions. The RF due to the resulting ozone and methane changes is then calculated. We investigate the impact of emission changes for specific geographical regions (approximating to USA, Europe, India and China) and cruise altitude emission changes in discrete latitude bands covering both hemispheres. We find that lower latitude emission changes (per Tg N) cause ozone and methane RFs that are about a factor of 6 larger than those from higher latitude emission changes. The net RF is positive for all experiments. The meridional extent of the RF is larger for low latitude emissions. GWPs for all emission changes are positive, with tropical emissions having the largest values; the sign of the GTP depends on the choice of time horizon.