Risk allocation in a public–private partnership: a case study of construction and operation of kindergartens in Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, a transitional nation in Central Asia, the development of public–private partnerships (PPPs) is at its early stage and increasingly of strategic importance. This case study investigates risk allocation in an ongoing project: the construction and operation of 11 kindergartens in the city of Karaganda in the concession form for 14 years. Drawing on a conceptual framework of effective risk allocation, the study identifies principal PPP risks, provides a critical assessment of how and in what way each partner bears a certain risk, highlights the reasons underpinning risk allocation decisions and delineates the lessons learned. The findings show that the government has effectively transferred most risks to the private sector partner, whilst both partners share the demand risk of childcare services and the project default risk. The strong elements of risk allocation include clear assignment of parties’ responsibilities, streamlined financing schemes and incentives to complete the main project phases on time. However, risk allocation has missed an opportunity to create incentives for service quality improvements and take advantage of economies of scale. The most controversial element of risk allocation, as the study finds, is a revenue stream that an operator is supposed to receive from the provision of services unrelated to childcare, as neither partner is able to mitigate this revenue risk. The article concludes that in the kindergartens’ PPP, the government has achieved almost complete transfer of risks to the private sector partner. However, the costs of transfer are extensive government financial outlays that seriously compromise the PPP value for money.

A critical account of the relationship between institutional trust, risk perception, and technology acceptance with an application to genetically modified foods

This article critically reflects on the widely held view of a causal chain with trust in public authorities impacting technology acceptance via perceived risk. It first puts forward conceptual reason against this view, as the presence of risk is a precondition for trust playing a role in decision making. Second, results from consumer surveys in Italy and Germany are presented that support the associationist model as counter hypothesis. In that view, trust and risk judgments are driven by and thus simply indicators of higher order attitudes toward a certain technology which determine acceptance instead. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Risk taking of executives under different incentive contracts: experimental evidence

Classic financial agency theory recommends compensation through stock options rather than shares to counteract excessive risk aversion in agents. In a setting where any kind of risk taking is suboptimal for shareholders, we show that excessive risk taking may occur for one of two reasons: risk preferences or incentives. Even when compensated through restricted company stock, experimental CEOs take large amounts of excessive risk. This contradicts classical financial theory, but can be explained through risk preferences that are not uniform over the probability and outcome spaces, and in particular, risk seeking for small probability gains and large probability losses. Compensation through options further increases risk taking as expected. We show that this effect is driven mainly by the personal asset position of the experimental CEO, thus having deleterious effects on company performance.

Constructing risk across timescales and trajectories: Gay men's stories of sexual encounters

This paper explores the way risk is constructed in the stories gay men tell of their sexual experiences. It focuses on how tellers use such stories to portray themselves both as rational actors and as legitimate members of their social groups by reconstructing the ‘orderliness’ of sexual encounters. An analysis of a corpus of stories derived from a diary study of gay male sexual behaviour in Hong Kong using current theories of discourse analysis reveals how narrators organize their experiences along two primary vectors of engagement: a sequential vector along which the trajectory of the sexual encounter is presented as a chain of occurrences, each occurrence contingent upon previous ones and warranting subsequent ones, and a hierarchical vector along which processes perceived on longer timescales are portrayed as exerting pressure on the ways processes on shorter timescales unfold. Examining how men portray these vectors in their accounts of risk behaviour can help us better understand both the situatedness of risk behaviour and the ways it is linked to larger social practices, identity projects and community histories

Remediation of soils contaminated with petrol and diesel with lime

Lime treatment of hydrocarbon-contaminated soils offers the potential to stabilize and solidify these materials, with a consequent reduction in the risks associated with the leachate emanating from them. This can aid the disposal of contaminated soils or enable their on-site treatment. In this study, the addition of hydrated lime and quicklime significantly reduced the leaching of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) from soils polluted with a 50:50 petrol/diesel mixture. Treatment with quicklime was slightly more effective, but hydrated lime may be better in the field because of its ease of handling. It is proposed that this occurs as a consequence of pozzolanic reactions retaining the hydrocarbons within the soil matrix. There was some evidence that this may be a temporary effect, as leaching increased between seven and 21 days after treatment, but the TPH concentrations in the leachate of treated soils were still one order of magnitude below those of the control soil, offering significant protection to groundwater. The reduction in leaching following treatment was observed in both aliphatic and aromatic fractions, but the latter were more affected because of their higher solubilty. The results are discussed in the context of risk assessment, and recommendations for future research are made.

Official warnings on thromboembolism risk with oral contraceptives fail to inform users adequately

Following the 1995 “pill scare” relating to the risk of venous thrombosis from taking second- or third-generation oral contraceptives, the Committee on Safety of Medicines (CSM) withdrew their earlier recommended restrictions on the use of third-generation pills and published recommended wording to be used in patient information leaflets. However, the effectiveness of this wording has not been tested. An empirical study (with 186 pill users, past users, and non-users) was conducted to assess understanding, based on this wording, of the absolute and relative risk of thrombosis in pill users and in pregnancy. The results showed that less than 12% of women in the (higher education) group fully understood the absolute levels of risk from taking the pill and from being pregnant. Relative risk was also poorly understood, with less than 40% of participants showing full understanding, and 20% showing no understanding. We recommend that the CSM revisit the wording currently provided to millions of women in the UK.

Provision of information about drug side-effects to patients

To make informed decisions about taking medicinal drugs, people need accurate information about side-effects. A European Union guideline now recommends use of qualitative descriptions for five bands of risk, ranging from very rare (affecting < 0·01% of the population), to very common (>10%). We did four studies of more than 750 people, whom we asked to estimate the probability of having a side-effect on the basis of qualitative and quantitative descriptions. Our results showed that qualitative descriptions led to gross overestimation of risk. Until further work is done on how patients taking the drugs interpret these terms, the terms should not be used in drug information leaflets.

Communicating information about medication side effects: effects on satisfaction, perceived risk to health, and intention to comply

Previous research has shown that people's evaluations of explanations about medication and their intention to comply with the prescription are detrimentally affected by the inclusion of information about adverse side effects of the medication. The present study (Experiment 1) examined which particular aspects of information about side effects (their number, likelihood of occurrence, or severity) are likely to have the greatest effect on people's satisfaction, perception of risk, and intention to comply, as well as how the information about side effects interacts with information about the severity of the illness for which the medication was prescribed. Across all measures, it was found that manipulations of side effect severity had the greatest impact on people's judgements, followed by manipulations of side effect likelihood and then number. Experiments 2 and 3 examined how the severity of the diagnosed illness and information about negative side effects interact with two other factors suggested by Social Cognition models of health behaviour to affect people's intention to comply: namely, perceived benefit of taking the prescribed drug, and the perceived level of control over preventing or alleviating the side effects. It was found that providing people with a statement about the positive benefit of taking the medication had relatively little effect on judgements, whereas informing them about how to reduce the chances of experiencing the side effects had an overall beneficial effect on ratings.

Is 15 per cent very common? Informing people about the risks of medication side effects

Objectives - To assess the general public's interpretation of the verbal descriptors for side effect frequency recommended for use in medicine information leaflets by a European Union (EU) guideline, and to examine the extent to which differences in interpretation affect people's perception of risk and their judgments of intention to comply with the prescribed treatment. Method - Two studies used a controlled empirical methodology in which people were presented with a hypothetical, but realistic, scenario about visiting their general practitioner and being prescribed medication. They were given an explanation that focused on the side effects of the medicine, together with information about the probability of occurrence using either numerical percentages or the corresponding EU verbal descriptors. Interpretation of the descriptors was assessed. In study 2, participants were also required to make various judgments, including risk to health and intention to comply. Key findings - In both studies, use of the EU recommended descriptors led to significant overestimations of the likelihood of particular side effects occurring. Study 2 further showed that the "overestimation" resulted in significantly increased ratings of perceived severity of side effects and risk to health, as well as significantly reduced ratings of intention to comply, compared with those for people who received the probability information in numerical form. Conclusion - While it is recognised that the current findings require replication in a clinical setting, the European and national authorities should suspend the use of the EU recommended terms until further research is available to allow the use of an evidence-based approach.

A cross-taxonomic index for quantifying the health of farmland biodiversity

P>1. The development of sustainable, multi-functional agricultural systems involves reconciling the needs of agricultural production with the objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of sustainability remains ambiguous and it has proven difficult to identify suitable indicators for monitoring progress towards, and the successful achievement of, sustainability. 2. In this study, we show that a trait-based approach can be used to assess the detrimental impacts of agricultural change to a broad range of taxonomic groupings and derive a standardised index of farmland biodiversity health, built around an objective of achieving stable or increasing populations in all species associated with agricultural landscapes. 3. To demonstrate its application, we assess the health of UK farmland biodiversity relative to this goal. Our results suggest that the populations of two-thirds of 333 plant and animal species assessed are unsustainable under current UK agricultural practices. 4. We then explore the potential benefits of an agri-environment scheme, Entry Level Stewardship (ELS), to farmland biodiversity in the UK under differing levels of risk mitigation delivery. We show that ELS has the potential to make a significant contribution to progress towards sustainability targets but that this potential is severely restricted by current patterns of scheme deployment. 5.Synthesis and applications: We have developed a cross-taxonomic sustainability index which can be used to assess both the current health of farmland biodiversity and the impacts of future agricultural changes relative to quantitative biodiversity targets. Although biodiversity conservation is just one of a number of factors that must be considered when defining sustainability, we believe our cross-taxonomic index has the potential to be a valuable tool for guiding the development of sustainable agricultural systems.

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

Farm-level risk factors for fluoroquinolone resistance in E-coli and thermophilic Campylobacter spp. on finisher pig farms

Logistic regression, supported by other statistical analyses was used to explore the possible association of risk factors with the fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistance status of 108 pig finisher farms in Great Britain. The farms were classified as 'affected' or 'not affected' by FQ-resistant E. coli or Campylobacter spp. on the basis of isolation of organisms from faecal samples on media containing 1 mg/l FQ. The use of FQ was the most important factor associated with finding resistant E. coli and/or Campylobacter, which were found on 79% (FQ-resistant E. coli) and 86% (FQ-resistant Campylobacter) of farms with a history of FQ use. However, resistant bacteria were also found on 19% (FQ-resistant E. coli) and 54% (FQ-resistant Campylobacter) of farms with no history of FQ use. For FQ-resistant E. coli, biosecurity measures may be protective and there was strong seasonal variation, with more farms found affected when sampled in the summer. For FQ-resistant Campylobacter, the buying-in of grower stock may increase risk and good on-farm hygiene may be protective. The findings suggest that resistant organisms, particularly Campylobacter, may spread between pig farms.

Determinants of consumers’ willingness to accept GM foods

This paper investigates Willingness to Accept (WTA) Genetic Modification (GM) foods based on experimental auctions carried out in the USA, UK and France. It explores perceptions of risk and benefits, moral concerns and their antecedents, attitudes to the environment and technology and trust in various sources using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Trust in information provided by industry proved to be the most important determinant of risk/benefit perceptions and WTA followed by general attitudes to the environment and technology. Education and age are also enhance perceived benefits and lower perceived risks of GM. Perception of risk/benefit and moral concerns all have significant effects on consumers' WTA but the perceived benefits are most important. The research suggests that trust-building by industry would be the most effective in enhancing GM acceptance.

Including a time-of-year effect in the analysis of a matched case-control study

Motivated by a matched case-control study to investigate potential risk factors for meningococcal disease amongst adolescents, we consider the analysis of matched case-control studies where disease incidence, and possibly other risk factors, vary with time of year. For the cases, the time of infection may be recorded. For controls, however, the recorded time is simply the time of data collection, which is shortly after the time of infection for the matched case, and so depends on the latter. We show that the effect of risk factors and interactions may be adjusted for the time of year effect in a standard conditional logistic regression analysis without introducing any bias. We also show that, if the time delay between data collection for cases and controls is constant, provided this delay is not very short, estimates of the time of year effect are approximately unbiased. In the case that the length of the delay varies over time, the estimate of the time of year effect is biased. We obtain an approximate expression for the degree of bias in this case. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of a predictive model for Mycosphaerella graminicola for economic and environmental benefits

A method was developed to evaluate crop disease predictive models for their economic and environmental benefits. Benefits were quantified as the value of a prediction measured by costs saved and fungicide dose saved. The value of prediction was defined as the net gain made by using predictions, measured as the difference between a scenario where predictions are available and used and a scenario without prediction. Comparable 'with' and 'without' scenarios were created with the use of risk levels. These risk levels were derived from a probability distribution fitted to observed disease severities. These distributions were used to calculate the probability that a certain disease induced economic loss was incurred. The method was exemplified by using it to evaluate a model developed for Mycosphaerella graminicola risk prediction. Based on the value of prediction, the tested model may have economic and environmental benefits to growers if used to guide treatment decisions on resistant cultivars. It is shown that the value of prediction measured by fungicide dose saved and costs saved is constant with the risk level. The model could also be used to evaluate similar crop disease predictive models.