Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

The social impacts of heat waves

The effects of the 2003 European heat wave have highlighted the need for society to prepare itself for and cope more effectively with heat waves. This is particularly important in the context of predicted climate change and the likelihood of more frequent extreme climate events; to date, heat as a natural hazard has been largely ignored. In order to develop better coping strategies, this report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects. The main factors of vulnerability are being elderly, living alone, having a pre-existing disease, being immobile or suffering from mental illness and being economically disadvantaged. The synergistic effects of such factors may prove fatal for some. Heat waves have discernible impacts on society including a rise in mortality, an increased strain on infrastructure (power, water and transport) and a possible rise in social disturbance. Wider impacts may include effects on the retail industry, ecosystem services and tourism. Adapting to more frequent heat waves should include soft engineering options and, where possible, avoid the widespread use of air conditioning which could prove unsustainable in energy terms. Strategies for coping with heat include changing the way in which urban areas are developed or re-developed, and setting up heat watch warning systems based around weather and seasonal climate forecasting and intervention strategies. Although heat waves have discernible effects on society, much remains unknown about their wider social impacts, diffuse health issues and how to manage them.

Children's lives, children's futures: A study of children starting secondary school

This title presents a fascinating analysis of how children in their first year of high school feel about their schools, its place in their lives and its role in their futures. This highly topical monograph focuses on how children in their first year of high school feel about school, its place in their lives and its role in their futures. The theoretical context of the study is the focus in educational studies on children's voice and children's active role in education, together with the focus in the sociology of childhood on children as active constructors of their lives and childhood as a subject of serious study. The importance of young people's life plans and the alignment between education and ambitions was recognized in the Sloan Foundation study of American teenagers. In many Western societies there is concern that children from less advantaged social backgrounds have limited aspirations, and are disproportionately unlikely to go to university. This book is highly relevant to understanding the nature of children's engagement with education, the choices and constraints they experience and the reasons some young people fail to take advantage of educational opportunities. "Continuum Studies in Educational Research" (CSER) is a major new series in the field of educational research. Written by experts and scholars for experts and scholars, this ground-breaking series focuses on research in the areas of comparative education, history, lifelong learning, philosophy, policy, post-compulsory education, psychology and sociology. Based on cutting edge research and written with lucidity and passion, the CSER series showcases only those books that really matter in education - studies that are major, that will be remembered for having made a difference.

Estimating oceanic heat content change using isotherms

This paper presents a new analysis of ocean heat content changes over the last 50 yr using isotherms by calculating the mean temperature above the 148C isotherm and the depth of the 148C isotherm as separate variables. A new quantity called the ‘‘relative heat content’’ (‘‘RHC’’) is introduced, which represents the minimum local heat content change over time, relative to a fixed isotherm. It is shown how mean temperature and isotherm depth changes make separable and additive contributions to changes in RHC. Maps of RHC change between 1970 and 2000 show similar spatial patterns to a traditional fixed-depth ocean heat content change to 220 m. However, the separate contributions to RHC suggest a more spatially uniform contribution from warming above the isotherm, while isotherm depth changes show wind-driven signals, of which some are identifiable as being related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The time series show that the warming contribution to RHC dominates the global trend, while the depth contribution only dominates on the basin scale in the North Atlantic. The RHC shows minima associated with the major volcanic eruptions (particularly in the Indian Ocean), and these are entirely contributed by mean temperature changes rather than isotherm depth changes. The depth change contributions to RHC are strongly affected by the recently reported XBT fall-rate bias, whereas the mean temperature contributions are not. Therefore, only the isotherm depth change contributions toRHCwill need to be reassessed as fall-rate-corrected data become available.

Effect of combined heat and high-pressure treatments on the texture of chicken breast muscle (Pectoralis fundus)

Commercially supplied chicken breast muscle was subjected to simultaneous heat and pressure treatments. Treatment conditions ranged from ambient temperature to 70 °C and from 0.1 to 800 MPa, respectively, in various combinations. Texture profile analysis (TPA) of the treated samples was performed to determine changes in muscle hardness. At treatment temperatures up to and including 50 °C, heat and pressure acted synergistically to increase muscle hardness. However, at 60 and 70 °C, hardness decreased following treatments in excess of 200 MPa. TPA was performed on extracted myofibrillar protein gels that after treatment under similar conditions revealed similar effects of heat and pressure. Differential scanning calorimetry analysis of whole muscle samples revealed that at ambient pressure the unfolding of myosin was completed at 60 °C, unlike actin, which completely denatured only above 70 °C. With simultaneous pressure treatment at >200 MPa, myosin and actin unfolded at 20 °C. Unfolding of myosin and actin could be induced in extracted myofibrillar protein with simultaneous treatment at 200 MPa and 40 °C. Electrophoretic analysis indicated high pressure/temperature regimens induced disulfide bonding between myosin chains.

Effects of different calcium salts on properties of milk related to heat stability

Insoluble calcium salts were added to milk to increase total calcium by 30 mM, without changing properties influencing heat stability, such as pH and ionic calcium. There were no major signs of instability associated with coagulation, sediment formation or fouling when subjected to ultra high temperature (UHT) and in-container sterilisation. The buffering capacity was also unaltered. On the other hand, addition of soluble calcium salts reduced pH, increased ionic calcium and caused coagulation to occur. Calcium chloride showed the largest destabilising effect, followed by calcium lactate and calcium gluconate. Milk became unstable to UHT processing at lower calcium additions compared to in-container sterilisation.

Heat tolerance in groundnut

Tolerance to high soil and air temperature during the reproductive phase is an important component of adaptation to and and semi-arid cropping environments in groundnut. Between 10 and 22 genotypes were screened for tolerance to high air and soil temperature in controlled environments. To assess tolerance to high soil temperature, 10 genotypes were grown from start of podding to harvest at ambient (28 degrees) and high (38 degreesC) soil temperatures, and crop growth rate (CGR), pod growth rate (PGR) and partitioning (ratio PGR:CGR) measured. To assess tolerance to high air temperature during two key stages-microsporogenesis (3-6 days before flowering, DBF) and flowering, fruit-set was measured in two experiments. In the first experiment, 12 genotypes were exposed to short (3-6 days) episodes of high (38 degreesC) day air temperature at 6 DBF and at flowering. In the second experiment, 22 genotypes were exposed to 40 degreesC day air temperature for I day at 6 DBF, 3 DBF or at flowering. Cellular membrane thermostability (relative injury, RI) was also measured in these 22 genotypes. There was considerable variation among genotypes in response to high temperature, whether assessed by growth rates, fruit-set or RI. Pod weight at high soil temperature was associated with variation in CGR rather than partitioning. Flowering was more sensitive to high air temperature than microsporogenesis. Genotypes tolerant to high air temperature at microsporogenesis were not necessarily tolerant at flowering, and nor was tolerance correlated with RI. Six genotypes (796, 55-437, ICG 1236, ICGV 86021, lCGV 87281 and ICGV 92121) were identified as heat tolerant based on their performance in all tests. These experiments have shown that groundnut genotypes can be easily screened for reproductive tolerance to high air and soil temperature and that several sources of heat tolerance are available in groundnut germplasm. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Phenotyping parents of mapping populations of rice for heat tolerance during anthesis

Seed set of rice (Oryza sativa L.) is highly sensitive to short episodes of high temperature at anthesis events that are likely to be more frequent in future climates. Breeding for tolerance is therefore an essential component of adaptation to climate variability and change. Experiments were conducted in 2003 and 2004 at optimum (30 degrees C daytime) and high (35 and 38 degrees C) air temperature using parents of some prominent mapping populations (i) to determine whether there were differences in the daily flowering pattern and hence a potential heat avoidance mechanism, and (ii) to identify rice genotypes having true heat tolerance during anthesis, that is, high seed set in spikelets exposed to high temperature. Rice cultivar CG14 (O. glaberrima) reached peak anthesis earlier in the morning (1.5 h after dawn) under both control (30 degrees C) and high (38 degrees C) temperature conditions than O. sativa genotypes (>= 3 h after dawn). Exposure to high temperature (centered on the time of peak anthesis) for 6 h reduced spikelet fertility more than exposure for 2 h, and fertility was lower at 38 degrees C than at 35 degrees C. Genotypic ranking for spikelet fertility at 35 and 38 degrees C was highly correlated in both 2003 and 2004. Fertility was also highly correlated across years, suggesting a consistent and reproducible response of spikelet fertility to temperature. The check cultivar N22 was the most heat tolerant genotype (64-86% fertility at 38 degrees C) and cultivars Azucena and Moroberekan the most susceptible (<8%).

Use of secondary somatic embryos promotes genetic fidelity in cryopreservation of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.)

The inability to conserve cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) germplasm via sced storage and the vulnerability of field collections make the establishment of cryopreserved genebanks for the crop a priority. An effective encapsulation-dehydration based cryopreservation system has been developed for cocoa but because the somatic embryos used for freezing arise after a protracted period of callus culture there is concern about maintenance of genetic fidelity during the process. Microsatellite markers for seven of the 10 cocoa linkage groups were used to screen a population of 189 primary somatic embryo-derived emblings and the 43 secondary somatic embryos they gave rise to. Of the primary somatic embryos, 38.1% exhibited polymorphic microsatellite profiles while for secondary somatic embryos the frequency was 23.3%. The same microsatellite markers used to screen another population of 44 secondary somatic embryos cryopreserved through encapsulation-dehydration revealed no polymorphisms. Scanning electron microscopy showed the secondary somatic embryos were derived from cotyledonary epidermal cells rather than callus. The influence of embryo ontogeny on somaclonal variation is discussed.

The cell wall and secretory proteome of a tobacco cell line synthesising secondary wall

The utility of plant secondary cell wall biomass for industrial and biofuel purposes depends upon improving cellulose amount, availability and extractability. The possibility of engineering such biomass requires much more knowledge of the genes and proteins involved in the synthesis, modification and assembly of cellulose, lignin and xylans. Proteomic data are essential to aid gene annotation and understanding of polymer biosynthesis. Comparative proteomes were determined for secondary walls of stem xylem and transgenic xylogenic cells of tobacco and detected peroxidase, cellulase, chitinase, pectinesterase and a number of defence/cell death related proteins, but not marker proteins of primary walls such as xyloglucan endotransglycosidase and expansins. Only the corresponding detergent soluble proteome of secretory microsomes from the xylogenic cultured cells, subjected to ion-exchange chromatography, could be determined accurately since, xylem-specific membrane yields were of poor quality from stem tissue. Among the 109 proteins analysed, many of the protein markers of the ER such as BiP, HSP70, calreticulin and calnexin were identified, together with some of the biosynthetic enzymes and associated polypeptides involved in polymer synthesis. However 53% of these endomembrane proteins failed identification despite the use of two different MS methods, leaving considerable possibilities for future identification of novel proteins involved in secondary wall polymer synthesis once full genomic data are available.

Heat-shock response in Arabidopsis thaliana explored by multiplexed quantitative proteomics using differential metabolic labeling

We have developed a general method for multiplexed quantitative proteomics using differential metabolic stable isotope labeling and mass spectrometry. The method was successfully used to study the dynamics of heat-shock response in Arabidopsis thaliana. A number of known heat-shock proteins were confirmed, and some proteins not previously associated with heat shock were discovered. The method is applicable in stable isotope labeling and allows for high degrees of multiplexing.