Climate change and the British Uplands: evidence for decision-making

We summarise the work of an interdisciplinary network set up to explore the impacts of climate change in the British Uplands. In this CR Special, the contributors present the state of knowledge and this introduction synthesises this knowledge and derives implications for decision makers. The Uplands are valued semi-natural habitats, providing ecosystem services that have historically been taken for granted. For example, peat soils, which are mostly found in the Uplands, contain around 50% of the terrestrial carbon in the UK. Land management continues to be a driver of ecosystem service delivery. Degraded and managed peatlands are subject to erosion and carbon loss with negative impacts on biodiversity, carbon storage and water quality. Climate change is already being experienced in British Uplands and is likely to exacerbate these pressures. Climate envelope models suggest as much as 50% of British Uplands and peatlands will be exposed to climate stress by the end of the 21st century under low and high emissions scenarios. However, process-based models of the response of organic soils to this climate stress do not give a consistent indication of what this will mean for soil carbon: results range from a very slight increase in uptake, through a clear decline, to a net carbon loss. Preserving existing peat stocks is an important climate mitigation strategy, even if new peat stops forming. Preserving upland vegetation cover is a key win–win management strategy that will reduce erosion and loss of soil carbon, and protect a variety of services such as the continued delivery of a high quality water resource.

Maternal adipose tissue response to nicotine administration in the pregnant rat: effects on fetal body fat and cellularity

1. Nicotine has been implicated as a causative factor in the intrauterine growth retardation associated with smoking in pregnancy. A study was set up to ascertain the effect of nicotine on fetal growth and whether this could be related to the actions of this drug on maternal adipose tissue metabolism. 2. Sprague-Dawley rats were mated and assigned to control and nicotine groups, the latter receiving nicotine in the drinking-water throughout pregnancy. Animals were weighed at regular intervals and killed on day 20 of pregnancy. Rates of maternal adipose tissue lipolysis and lipogenesis were measured. Fetal and placental weights were recorded and analysis of fetal body water, fat, protein and DNA carried out. 3. Weight gains of mothers in the nicotine group were less in the 1st and 2nd weeks of pregnancy, but similar to controls in the 3rd week. Fetal body-weights, DNA, protein and percentage water contents were similar in both groups. Mean fetal body fat (g/kg) was significantly higher in the nicotine group (96.2 (SE 5.1)) compared with controls (72.0 (SE 2.9)). Rates of maternal lipolysis were also higher in the nicotine group. 4. The cause of these differences and their effects on maternal and fetal well-being is discussed.

Doubled haploid ramets via embryogenesis of haploid tissue cultures

Tissue culture in the oil palm business is generally concerned with the multiplication (clonal production) of dura, pisifera and tenera palms. These are all normal diploids (2n=2x=36). Sumatra Bioscience has pioneered haploid tissue culture of oil palm (n=x=18). Haploid oil palm is the first step in producing doubled haploid palms which in turn provide parental lines for F1 hybrid production. Chromosome doubling is known to occur during embryogenesis in other haploid cultures, e.g. barley anther culture. Haploid tissue cultures in oil palm were therefore set up to investigate and exploit spontaneous chromosome doubling during embryogenesis. Flow cytometry of embryogenic tissue showed the presence of both haploid (n) and doubled haploid (2n) cells indicating spontaneous doubling. Completely doubled haploid ramets were regenerated suggesting that doubling occurred during the first mitoses of embryogenesis. This is the first report of doubled haploid production in oil palm via haploid tissue culture. The method provides a means of producing a range of doubled haploids in oil palm from the 1,000 plus haploids available at Sumatra Bioscience, in addition the method also produced doubled haploid (and haploid) clones. 1.

An analysis of verbal responses to music in a group of adult non-specialists

In a workshop setting, two pieces of recorded music were presented to a group of adult non-specialists; a key feature was to set up structured discussion within which the respondents considered each piece of music as a whole and not in its constituent parts. There were two areas of interest, namely to explore whether the respondents were likely to identify the musical features or to make extra-musical associations and, to establish the extent to which there would be commonality and difference in their approach to formulating the verbal responses. An inductive approach was used in the analysis of data to reveal some of the working theories underpinning the intuitive musicianship of the adult non-specialist listener. Findings have shown that, when unprompted by forced choice responses, the listeners generated responses that could be said to be information-poor in terms of musical features but rich in terms of the level of personal investment they made in formulating their responses. This is evidenced in a number of connections they made between the discursive and the non-discursive, including those which are relational and mediated by their experiences. Implications for music education are considered.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

Measuring the impact of observations on the predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in a shallow-water model

In this paper sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on a ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). This particle filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows us to determine the predictive power — an entropy based measure — of the ensemble prediction. The proposed set-up makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a post-processing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one-year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow water model. We investigate the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering state of the KE. Optimal observations location correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the KE. During the contracted state of the KE it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast.

Riluzole elevates GLT-1 activity and levels in striatal astrocytes

Drugs which upregulate astrocyte glutamate transport may be useful neuroprotective compounds by preventing excitotoxicity. We set up a new system to identify potential neuroprotective drugs which act through GLT-1. Primary mouse striatal astrocytes grown in the presence of the growth-factor supplement G5 express high levels of the functional glutamate transporter, GLT-1 (also known as EAAT2) as assessed by Western blotting and (3)H-glutamate uptake assay, and levels decline following growth factor withdrawal. The GLT-1 transcriptional enhancer dexamethasone (0.1 or 1muM) was able to prevent loss of GLT-1 levels and activity following growth factor withdrawal. In contrast, ceftriaxone, a compound previously reported to enhance GLT-1 expression, failed to regulate GLT-1 in this system. The neuroprotective compound riluzole (100muM) upregulated GLT-1 levels and activity, through a mechanism that was not dependent on blockade of voltage-sensitive ion channels, since zonasimide (1mM) did not regulate GLT-1. Finally, CDP-choline (10muM-1mM), a compound which promotes association of GLT-1/EAAT2 with lipid rafts was unable to prevent GLT-1 loss under these conditions. This observation extends the known pharmacological actions of riluzole, and suggests that this compound may exert its neuroprotective effects through an astrocyte-dependent mechanism.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Implementation of a new urban energy budget scheme in the MetUM. Part I: Description and idealized simulations

This paper describes the formulation of a new urban scheme, MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme) for use in the Met Office Unified Model. The implementation of the new scheme ensures that (1) the new scheme offers more flexibility in the parametrization of the building properties, and hence provides a more realistic representation of the fluxes; (2) the bulk outputs are in satisfactory agreement with previous observational studies; and (3) the impact of the new scheme on the energy balance fluxes is similar to the impact of the current urban scheme when set up to mimic it. As well as having a better physical basis, MORUSES also gains in flexibility in applications and adaptations to different urban materials as well as urban planning. The new scheme represents the urban area as a composition of two tiles, a canyon and a roof, using a simple 2D geometry. Sensitivity analysis to canyon geometry and thickness of the roof canopy emphasizes the gain in flexibility captured by the new scheme. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Quality time [QoS in 802.11e]

Wireless local area networks (WLANs) based on the IEEE 802.11 standard are now widespread. Most are used to provide access for mobile devices to a conventional wired infrastructure, and some are used where wires are not possible, forming an ad hoc network of their own. There are several varieties at the physical or radio layer (802.11, 802.11a, 802.11b, 802.11g), with each featuring different data rates, modulation schemes and transmission frequencies. However, all of them share a common medium access control (MAC) layer. As this is largely based on a contention approach, it does not allow prioritising of traffic or stations, so it cannot easily provide the quality of service (QoS) required by time-sensitive applications, such as voice or video transmission. In order to address this shortfall of the technology, the IEEE set up a task group that is aiming to enhance the MAC layer protocol so that it can provide QoS. The latest draft at the time of writing is Draft 11, dated October 2004. The article describes the yet-to-be-ratified 802.11e standard and is based on that draft.

Evaluating the use of multimedia authoring with dyslexic learners: a case study

This paper reports on the findings of a case study set up to explore the possible benefits that dyslexic learners might have when engaging in the creation of their own multimedia project. Two children with specific learning difficulties worked with the author to develop a multimedia presentation. The children developed authoring skills (such as planning and drafting, composition, revision and reflection, proof reading and presentation) and became active, motivated learners. It is believed that the open-ended character of a multimedia authoring package can encourage creative thinking and interest for content and style of presentation.

A nipple shield delivery system for oral drug delivery to breastfeeding infants : Microbicide delivery to inactivate HIV

A new drug delivery method for infants is presented which incorporates an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API)-loaded insert into a nipple shield delivery system (NSDS). The API is released directly into milk during breastfeeding. This study investigates the feasibility of using the NSDS to deliver the microbicide sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), with the goal of preventing mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV during breastfeeding in low-resource settings, when there is no safer alternative for the infant but to breastfeed. SDS has been previously shown to effectively inactivate HIV in human milk. An apparatus was developed to simulate milk flow through and drug release from a NSDS. Using this apparatus milk was pulsed through a prototype device containing a non-woven fiber insert impregnated with SDS and the microbicide was rapidly released. The total SDS release from inserts ranged from 70 to 100% of the average 0.07 g load within 50 ml (the volume of a typical breastfeed). Human milk spiked with H9/HIVIIIB cells was also passed through the same set-up. Greater than 99% reduction of cell-associated HIV infectivity was achieved in the first 10 ml of milk. This proof of concept study demonstrates efficient drug delivery to breastfeeding infants is achievable using the NSDS.

Public Art Commission, 1x1 project, Tina O'Connell and Neal White

A significant development in the Washington DC arts and Humanities Commission programme, the 5x5 project represented the first publicly funded arts project of this type in the US Capital. Following an International call a panel selected 20 curators who in turn selected 5 artists. All curators programmes and research were presented and 5 curators projects selected. Research into control issues surrounding the import and export of water from Japan were used to set up a project in which public were invited to put one of one thousand small droplets of this imported water onto Cherry Blossom Trees. Many of the interactions were recorded onto the database that also included documentation of sites which have vested political or national interests in the Earthquake and Fukushima Diaichi disaster in Washington DC itself. Hundreds of participants took part in the project over one week.

Tropical-extratropical interactions over Southern Africa: three cases of heavy summer season rainfall

The synoptic evolution of three tropical–extratropical (TE) interactions, each responsible for extreme rainfall events over southern Africa, is discussed in detail. Along with the consideration of previously studied events, common features of these heavy rainfall producing tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa are discussed. It is found that 2 days prior to an event, northeasterly moisture transports across Botswana, set up by the Angola low, are diverted farther south into the semiarid region of subtropical southern Africa. The TTTs reach full maturity as a TE cloud band, rooted in the central subcontinent, which is triggered by upper-level divergence along the leading edge of an upper-tropospheric westerly wave trough. Convection and rainfall within the cloud band is supported by poleward moisture transports with subtropical air rising as it leaves the continent and joins the midlatitude westerly flow. It is shown that these systems fit within a theoretical framework describing similar TE interactions found globally. Uplift forcing for the extreme rainfall of each event is investigated. Unsurprisingly, quasigeostrophic uplift is found to dominate in the midlatitudes with convective processes strongest in the subtropics. Rainfall in the semiarid interior of South Africa appears to be a result of quasigeostrophically triggered convection. Investigation of TTT formation in the context of planetary waves shows that early development is sometimes associated with previous anticyclonic wave breaking south of the subcontinent, with full maturity of TTTs occurring as a potential vorticity trough approaches the continent from the west. Sensitivity to upstream wave perturbations and effects on anticyclonic wave breaking in the South Indian Ocean are also observed.

Rhythmic behavior of social insects from single to multibody

Revealing the evolution of well-organized social behavior requires understanding a mechanism by which collective behavior is produced. A well-organized group may be produced by two possible mechanisms, namely, a central control and a distributed control. In the second case, local interactions between interchangeable components function at the bottom of the collective behavior. We focused on a simple behavior of an individual ant and analyzed the interactions between a pair of ants. In an experimental set-up, we placed the workers in a hemisphere without a nest, food, and a queen, and recorded their trajectories. The temporal pattern of velocity of each ant was obtained. From this bottom-up approach, we found the characteristic behavior of a single worker and a pair of workers as follows: (1) Activity of each individual has a rhythmic component. (2) Interactions between a pair of individuals result in two types of coupling, namely the anti-phase and the in-phase coupling. The direct physical contacts between the pair of workers might cause a phase shift of the rhythmic components in individual ants. We also build up a simple model based on the coupled oscillators toward the understanding of the whole colony behavior.