Significance tests in climate science

A large fraction of papers in the climate literature includes erroneous uses of significance tests. A Bayesian analysis is presented to highlight the meaning of significance tests and why typical misuse occurs. The significance statistic is not a quantitative measure of how confident we can be of the ‘reality’ of a given result. It is concluded that a significance test very rarely provides useful quantitative information.

Characterising developmental language impairment in Serbian-speaking children: a preliminary investigation

The aim of the article is to provide preliminary data on the use of auxiliaries and clitics in Serbian-speaking children with developmental language impairment. Two groups of children (a group of 30 children with developmental language impairment and a group of 30 typically developing children) aged between 48 and 83 months and matched on IQ took part in the study. They were asked to tell a story from a series of four pictures. The results showed that the children with language impairment omitted significantly more auxiliary verbs and clitics than the controls. In addition, the rate of omission of auxiliaries and clitics did not decrease with increasing chronological age. We conclude that, as in other languages, auxiliary verbs and clitics are particularly difficult for Serbian-speaking children with language impairment.

Investigation of language and motor skills in Serbian speaking children with specific language impairment and in typically developing children

Specific language impairment (SLI) is usually defined as a developmental language disorder which does not result from a hearing loss, autism, neurological and emotional difficulties, severe social deprivation, low non-verbal abilities. Children affected with SLI typically have difficulties with the acquisition of different aspects of language and by definition, their impairment is specific to language and no other skills are affected. However, there has been a growing body of literature to suggest that children with SLI also have non-linguistic deficits, including impaired motor abilities. The aim of the current study is to investigate language and motor abilities of a group of thirty children with SLI (aged between 4 and 7) in comparison to a group of 30 typically developing children matched for chronological age. The results showed that the group of children with SLI had significantly more difficulties on the language and motor assessments compared to the control group. The SLI group also showed delayed onset in the development of all motor skills under investigation in comparison to the typically developing group. More interestingly, the two groups differed with respect to which language abilities were correlated with motor abilities, however Imitation of Complex Movements was the unique skill which reliably predicted expressive vocabulary in both typically developing children and in children with SLI.

Squaring the circle - statistically speaking

A simple relationship is described which connects Buffon's classical needle problem with related problems involving circles, squares and rectangles.

Blood-clotting response tests for resistance to diphacinone and chlorophacinone in the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus Berk.)

Resistance baselines were obtained for the first generation anticoagulant rodenticides chlorophacinone and diphacinone using laboratory, caesarian-derived Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) as the susceptible strain and the blood clotting response test method. The ED99 estimates for a quantal response were: chlorophacinone, males 0.86 mg kg−1, females 1.03 mg kg−1; diphacinone, males 1.26 mg kg−1, females 1.60 mg kg−1. The dose-response data also showed that chlorophacinone was significantly (p<0.0001) more potent than diphacinone for both male and female rats, and that male rats were more susceptible than females to both compounds (p<0.002). The ED99 doses were then given to groups of five male and five female rats of the Welsh and Hampshire warfarin-resistant strains. Twenty-four hours later, prothrombin times were slightly elevated in both strains but all the animals were classified as resistant to the two compounds, indicating cross-resistance from warfarin to diphacinone and chlorophacinone. When rats of the two resistant strains were fed for six consecutive days on baits containing either diphacinone or chlorophacinone, many animals survived, indicating that their resistance might enable them to survive treatments with these compounds in the field.

Power properties if invariant tests for spatial autocorrelation in linear regression

This paper derives some exact power properties of tests for spatial autocorrelation in the context of a linear regression model. In particular, we characterize the circumstances in which the power vanishes as the autocorrelation increases, thus extending the work of Krämer (2005). More generally, the analysis in the paper sheds new light on how the power of tests for spatial autocorrelation is affected by the matrix of regressors and by the spatial structure. We mainly focus on the problem of residual spatial autocorrelation, in which case it is appropriate to restrict attention to the class of invariant tests, but we also consider the case when the autocorrelation is due to the presence of a spatially lagged dependent variable among the regressors. A numerical study aimed at assessing the practical relevance of the theoretical results is included

Hidden interlocutor misidentification in practical Turing Tests

Based on insufficient evidence, and inadequate research, Floridi and his students report inaccuracies and draw false conclusions in their Minds and Machines evaluation, which this paper aims to clarify. Acting as invited judges, Floridi et al. participated in nine, of the ninety-six, Turing tests staged in the finals of the 18th Loebner Prize for Artificial Intelligence in October 2008. From the transcripts it appears that they used power over solidarity as an interrogation technique. As a result, they were fooled on several occasions into believing that a machine was a human and that a human was a machine. Worse still, they did not realise their mistake. This resulted in a combined correct identification rate of less than 56%. In their paper they assumed that they had made correct identifications when they in fact had been incorrect.

Cognitive tests used in chronic adult human randomised controlled trial micronutrient and phytochemical intervention studies

In recent years there has been a rapid growth of interest in exploring the relationship between nutritional therapies and the maintenance of cognitive function in adulthood. Emerging evidence reveals an increasingly complex picture with respect to the benefits of various food constituents on learning, memory and psychomotor function in adults. However, to date, there has been little consensus in human studies on the range of cognitive domains to be tested or the particular tests to be employed. To illustrate the potential difficulties that this poses, we conducted a systematic review of existing human adult randomised controlled trial (RCT) studies that have investigated the effects of 24 d to 36 months of supplementation with flavonoids and micronutrients on cognitive performance. There were thirty-nine studies employing a total of 121 different cognitive tasks that met the criteria for inclusion. Results showed that less than half of these studies reported positive effects of treatment, with some important cognitive domains either under-represented or not explored at all. Although there was some evidence of sensitivity to nutritional supplementation in a number of domains (for example, executive function, spatial working memory), interpretation is currently difficult given the prevailing 'scattergun approach' for selecting cognitive tests. Specifically, the practice means that it is often difficult to distinguish between a boundary condition for a particular nutrient and a lack of task sensitivity. We argue that for significant future progress to be made, researchers need to pay much closer attention to existing human RCT and animal data, as well as to more basic issues surrounding task sensitivity, statistical power and type I error.

Reduction of invasive tests in chagasic patients with a modified self-organizing map

The applicability of AI methods to the Chagas' disease diagnosis is carried out by the use of Kohonen's self-organizing feature maps. Electrodiagnosis indicators calculated from ECG records are used as features in input vectors to train the network. Cross-validation results are used to modify the maps, providing an outstanding improvement to the interpretation of the resulting output. As a result, the map might be used to reduce the need for invasive explorations in chronic Chagas' disease.