Nutrition of chicks and layers

When formulating least-cost poultry diets, ME concentration should be optimised by an iterative procedure, not entered as a fixed value. This iteration must calculate profit margins by taking into account the way in which feed intake and saleable outputs vary with ME concentration. In the case of broilers, adjustment of critical amino acid contents in direct proportion to ME concentration does not result in birds of equal fatness. To avoid an increase in fat deposition at higher energy levels, it is proposed that amino acid specifications should be adjusted in proportion to changes in the net energy supplied by the feed. A model is available which will both interpret responses to amino acids in laying trials and give economically optimal estimates of amino acid inputs for practical feed formulation. Flocks coming into lay and flocks nearing the end of the pullet year have bimodal distributions of rates of lay, with the result that calculations of requirement based on mean output will underestimate the optimal amino acid input for the flock. Chick diets containing surplus protein can lead to impaired utilisation of the first-limiting amino acid. This difficulty can be avoided by stating amino acid requirements as a proportion of the protein.

The changing structure of diets in the European Union in relation to healthy eating guidelines

Objective: Our objective in this paper is to assess diets in the European Union (EU) in relation to the recommendations of the recent World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization expert consultation and to show how diets have changed between 1961 and 2001. Data and methods: Computations make use of FAOSTAT data on food availability at country level linked to a food composition database to convert foods to nutrients. We further explore the growing similarity of diets in the EU by making use of a consumption similarity index. The index provides a single number measure of dietary overlap between countries. Results: The data confirm the excessive consumption by almost all countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugars, and the convergence of nutrient intakes across the EU. Whereas in 1961 diets in several European countries were more similar to US diets than to those of other European countries, this is no longer the case; moreover, while EU diets have become more homogeneous, the EU as a whole and the USA have become less similar over time. Conclusions: Although the dominant cause of greater similarity in EU diets over the period studied is increased intakes in Mediterranean countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugar, also important are reductions in saturated fat and sugar in some Northern European countries. This suggests that healthy eating messages are finally having an impact on diets; a distinctly European diet may also be emerging.

Rates of production of acetate, propionate, and butyrate in the rumen of lactating dairy cows given normal and low-roughage diets

Five lactating dairy cows with a permanent cannula in the rumen were given ( kg DM/d) a normal diet (7.8 concentrates, 5.1 hay) or a low-roughage (LR) diet (11.5 concentrates, 1.2 hay) in two meals daily in a two-period crossover design. Milk fat (g/kg) was severely reduced on diet LR. To measure rates of production of individual volatile fatty acids (VFA) in the rumen, 0.5 mCi 1-C-14-acetic acid, 2-C-14-propionic acid, or 1-C-14-n-butyric acid were infused into the rumen for 22 h at intervals of 2 to 6 d; rumen samples were taken over the last 12 h. To measure rumen volume, we infused Cr-EDTA into the rumen continuously, and polyethylene glycol was injected 2 h before the morning feed. Results were very variable, so volumes measured by rumen emptying were used instead. Net production of propionic acid more than doubled on LR, but acetate and butyrate production was only numerically lower. Net production rates pooled across both diets were significantly related to concentrations for each VFA. Molar proportions of net production were only slightly higher than molar proportions of concentrations for acetate and propionate but were lower for butyrate. The net energy value (MJ/d) of production of the three VFA increased from 89.5 on normal to 109.1 on LR, equivalent to 55 and 64% of digestible energy, respectively. Fully interchanging, three-pool models of VFA C fluxes are presented. It is concluded that net production rates of VFA can be measured in non-steady states without the need to measure rumen volumes.

A practical comparison of group-sequential and adaptive designs

Sequential methods provide a formal framework by which clinical trial data can be monitored as they accumulate. The results from interim analyses can be used either to modify the design of the remainder of the trial or to stop the trial as soon as sufficient evidence of either the presence or absence of a treatment effect is available. The circumstances under which the trial will be stopped with a claim of superiority for the experimental treatment, must, however, be determined in advance so as to control the overall type I error rate. One approach to calculating the stopping rule is the group-sequential method. A relatively recent alternative to group-sequential approaches is the adaptive design method. This latter approach provides considerable flexibility in changes to the design of a clinical trial at an interim point. However, a criticism is that the method by which evidence from different parts of the trial is combined means that a final comparison of treatments is not based on a sufficient statistic for the treatment difference, suggesting that the method may lack power. The aim of this paper is to compare two adaptive design approaches with the group-sequential approach. We first compare the form of the stopping boundaries obtained using the different methods. We then focus on a comparison of the power of the different trials when they are designed so as to be as similar as possible. We conclude that all methods acceptably control type I error rate and power when the sample size is modified based on a variance estimate, provided no interim analysis is so small that the asymptotic properties of the test statistic no longer hold. In the latter case, the group-sequential approach is to be preferred. Provided that asymptotic assumptions hold, the adaptive design approaches control the type I error rate even if the sample size is adjusted on the basis of an estimate of the treatment effect, showing that the adaptive designs allow more modifications than the group-sequential method.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

Graphical tracking systems revisited: a practical approach to computer scheduling in horticulture

Graphical tracking is a technique for crop scheduling where the actual plant state is plotted against an ideal target curve which encapsulates all crop and environmental characteristics. Management decisions are made on the basis of the position of the actual crop against the ideal position. Due to the simplicity of the approach it is possible for graphical tracks to be developed on site without the requirement for controlled experimentation. Growth models and graphical tracks are discussed, and an implementation of the Richards curve for graphical tracking described. In many cases, the more intuitively desirable growth models perform sub-optimally due to problems with the specification of starting conditions, environmental factors outside the scope of the original model and the introduction of new cultivars. Accurate specification for a biological model requires detailed and usually costly study, and as such is not adaptable to a changing cultivar range and changing cultivation techniques. Fitting of a new graphical track for a new cultivar can be conducted on site and improved over subsequent seasons. Graphical tracking emphasises the current position relative to the objective, and as such does not require the time consuming or system specific input of an environmental history, although it does require detailed crop measurement. The approach is flexible and could be applied to a variety of specification metrics, with digital imaging providing a route for added value. For decision making regarding crop manipulation from the observed current state, there is a role for simple predictive modelling over the short term to indicate the short term consequences of crop manipulation.