Demand, supply and willingness-to-pay for extension services in an emerging-market setting

Although it may be wholly inappropriate to generalize, the most important resource available to a subsistence household is the total amount of time that its members have available to spend in productive enterprises. In this context, services that minimize the time that it takes to perform productive activities are valuable to the household. Consequently the household is willing to relinquish quantities of other resources in exchange for quantities of the time-saving service. These simple observations motivate a search for the values that subsistence households place on time-saving services. This search is especially important when it is realized that extension services promote productivity, enhance the surplus-generating potential of the household and can, as a consequence, promote immersion into markets that are currently constrained by thinness and instability. In this capacity, extension visitation has the potential to overcome one of the principal impediments to economic development, namely lack of density of market participation. In this article, we consider this issue in the context of a rich data set on milk-market participation by small-holder dairy producers in the Ethiopian highlands.

Tobit estiamtion with unknown point of censoring with an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Data augmentation is a powerful technique for estimating models with latent or missing data, but applications in agricultural economics have thus far been few. This paper showcases the technique in an application to data on milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. There, a key impediment to economic development is an apparently low rate of market participation. Consequently, economic interest centers on the “locations” of nonparticipants in relation to the market and their “reservation values” across covariates. These quantities are of policy interest because they provide measures of the additional inputs necessary in order for nonparticipants to enter the market. One quantity of primary interest is the minimum amount of surplus milk (the “minimum efficient scale of operations”) that the household must acquire before market participation becomes feasible. We estimate this quantity through routine application of data augmentation and Gibbs sampling applied to a random-censored Tobit regression. Incorporating random censoring affects markedly the marketable-surplus requirements of the household, but only slightly the covariates requirements estimates and, generally, leads to more plausible policy estimates than the estimates obtained from the zero-censored formulation

Scaling up data mining techniques to large datasets using parallel and distributed processing

Advances in hardware and software technology enable us to collect, store and distribute large quantities of data on a very large scale. Automatically discovering and extracting hidden knowledge in the form of patterns from these large data volumes is known as data mining. Data mining technology is not only a part of business intelligence, but is also used in many other application areas such as research, marketing and financial analytics. For example medical scientists can use patterns extracted from historic patient data in order to determine if a new patient is likely to respond positively to a particular treatment or not; marketing analysts can use extracted patterns from customer data for future advertisement campaigns; finance experts have an interest in patterns that forecast the development of certain stock market shares for investment recommendations. However, extracting knowledge in the form of patterns from massive data volumes imposes a number of computational challenges in terms of processing time, memory, bandwidth and power consumption. These challenges have led to the development of parallel and distributed data analysis approaches and the utilisation of Grid and Cloud computing. This chapter gives an overview of parallel and distributed computing approaches and how they can be used to scale up data mining to large datasets.

Contributions of roots and rootstocks to sustainable, intensified crop production

Sustainable intensification is seen as the main route for meeting the world’s increasing demands for food and fibre. As demands mount for greater efficiency in the use of resources to achieve this goal, so the focus on roots and rootstocks and their role in acquiring water and nutrients, and overcoming pests and pathogens, is increasing. The purpose of this review is to explore some of the ways in which understanding root systems and their interactions with soils could contribute to the development of more sustainable systems of intensive production. Physical interactions with soil particles limit root growth if soils are dense, but root–soil contact is essential for optimal growth and uptake of water and nutrients. X-ray microtomography demonstrated that maize roots elongated more rapidly with increasing root–soil contact, as long as mechanical impedance was not limiting root elongation, while lupin was less sensitive to changes in root–soil contact. In addition to selecting for root architecture and rhizosphere properties, the growth of many plants in cultivated systems is profoundly affected by selection of an appropriate rootstock. Several mechanisms for scion control by rootstocks have been suggested, but the causal signals are still uncertain and may differ between crop species. Linkage map locations for quantitative trait loci for disease resistance and other traits of interest in rootstock breeding are becoming available. Designing root systems and rootstocks for specific environments is becoming a feasible target.

Social development: bridging the theory-practice divide, past and present

Introduces a collection of articles appearing in a special issue that reflect on social development, considering the various intellectual forms social development has taken, how development thinking has been shaped by different concepts in different periods, and how contributors' personal experiences with social development research has been applied to social development practice.

The role of temperament and family environment in the development of anxiety disorder: two-year follow-up

Objective Behavioural inhibition (BI) in early childhood is associated with increased risk for anxiety. The present research examines BI alongside family environment factors, specifically maternal negativity and overinvolvement, maternal anxiety and mother-child attachment, with a view to providing a broader understanding of the development of child anxiety. Method Participants were 202 children classified at age 4 as either behaviourally inhibited (N=102) or uninhibited (N=100). Family environment, BI and child anxiety were assessed at baseline and child anxiety and BI were assessed again two-years later when participants were aged 6 years. Results After controlling for baseline anxiety, inhibited participants were significantly more likely to meet criteria for a diagnosis of social phobia and generalized anxiety disorder at follow-up. Path analysis suggested that maternal anxiety significantly affected child anxiety over time, even after controlling for the effects of BI and baseline anxiety. No significant paths from parenting or attachment to child anxiety were found. Maternal overinvolvement was significantly associated with BI at follow-up. Conclusions At age 4, BI, maternal anxiety and child anxiety represent risk factors for anxiety at age 6. Furthermore, overinvolved parenting increases risk for BI at age 6, which may then lead to the development of anxiety in later childhood.

Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

The impact of 1973–2005 land use–land cover (LULC) changes on near-surface air temperatures during four recent summer extreme heat events (EHEs) are investigated for the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the Noah Urban Canopy Model. WRF simulations were carried out for each EHE using LULC for the years 1973, 1985, 1998, and 2005. Comparison of measured near-surface air temperatures and wind speeds for 18 surface stations in the region show a good agreement between observed and simulated data for all simulation periods. The results indicate consistent significant contributions of urban development and accompanying LULC changes to extreme temperatures for the four EHEs. Simulations suggest new urban developments caused an intensification and expansion of the area experiencing extreme temperatures but mainly influenced nighttime temperatures with an increase of up to 10 K. Nighttime temperatures in the existing urban core showed changes of up to 2 K with the ongoing LULC changes. Daytime temperatures were not significantly affected where urban development replaced desert land (increase by 1 K); however, maximum temperatures increased by 2–4 K when irrigated agricultural land was converted to suburban development. According to the model simulations, urban landscaping irrigation contributed to cooling by 0.5–1 K in maximum daytime as well as minimum nighttime 2-m air temperatures in most parts of the urban region. Furthermore, urban development led to a reduction of the already relatively weak nighttime winds and therefore a reduction in advection of cooler air into the city.

A longitudinal investigation of maternal influences on the development of child hostile attributions and aggression

Aggression in children is associated with an enhanced tendency to attribute hostile intentions to others. However, limited information is available regarding the factors that contribute to the development of such hostile attribution tendencies. We examined factors that contribute to individual differences in child hostile attributions and aggression, focusing on potential pathways from maternal hostile attributions via negative parenting behavior. We conducted a longitudinal study of 98 mothers and children (47 male, 51 female), recruited from groups experiencing high and low levels of psychosocial adversity. Maternal hostile attributions, observed parenting, and child behaviour were assessed at 18 months and 5 years child age, and child hostile attributions were also examined at 5 years. Independent assessments of maternal and child processes were utilized where possible. Analyses provided support for a direct influence of maternal hostile attributions on the development of child hostile attributions and aggressive behaviour. Maternal hostile attributions were also associated with negative parenting behaviour, which in turn influenced child adjustment. Even taking account of possible parenting influences and preexisting child difficulties, hostile attributions in the mother showed a direct link with child aggression at 5 years. Maternal hostile attributions were themselves related to psychosocial adversity. We conclude that maternal hostile attributions are prevalent in high-risk samples and are related to less optimal parenting behaviour, child hostile attributions, and child aggression. Targeting hostile maternal cognitions may be a useful adjunct to parenting programs

Can British multinational enterprises finance economic development in South East Asia?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to shed new light on the debate about the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and public policy in fostering economic development. Specifically, can the capital inflow of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the ability of the subsidiaries to raise funds locally help promote development? This paper addresses this issue by examining the capital structure and financing sources of foreign subsidiaries of MNEs. Design/methodology/approach – This paper integrates the capital structure theories in finance with internalization theory in international business. It uses an original primary dataset collected by a survey of 101 foreign subsidiaries of British MNEs in six emerging economies in the ASEAN region. Findings – There are three significant findings. First, these subsidiaries rely heavily on internal funds generated within the MNEs and less on external debts raised in the host countries. Second, the foreign subsidiary's capital structure is influenced by the home country of origin of the parent firm and the parent firm's financing sources. Third, these subsidiaries have used the financial resources to develop business networks with local small and medium enterprises (SMEs) which contribute to economic development of the host countries. Originality/value – This paper examines the internal capital market within the MNE. It provides theoretical and empirical support for the capital structure theory of the hierarchy financing approach and also for internalization theory by addressing FDI inflows by MNEs and the raising of funds locally. These findings have important implications for public policy, namely the facilitation of MNE entry to encourage economic development.

Development of personalised functional foods needs metabolic profiling

Purpose of review There is growing interest in applying metabolic profiling technologies to food science as this approach is now embedded into the foodomics toolbox. This review aims at exploring how metabolic profiling can be applied to the development of functional foods. Recent findings One of the biggest challenges of modern nutrition is to propose a healthy diet to populations worldwide that must suit high inter-individual variability driven by complex gene-nutrient-environment interactions. Although a number of functional foods are now proposed in support of a healthy diet, a one-size-fits-all approach to nutrition is inappropriate and new personalised functional foods are necessary. Metabolic profiling technologies can assist at various levels of the development of functional foods, from screening for food composition to identification of new biomarkers of food intake to support diet intervention and epidemiological studies. Summary Modern ‘omics’ technologies, including metabolic profiling, will support the development of new personalised functional foods of high relevance to twenty-first-century medical challenges such as controlling the worldwide spread of metabolic disorders and ensuring healthy ageing.

Ethical turn in international development

The ethical turn in international development relates to a tendency to question the deleterious impact of international development action on local populations and environment. As a consequence, new courses of action are proposed in order to generate socially just and environmentally sustainable global change. This tendency is most prominent in relation to the development impacts of globalization of production and trade but also appears across a wide range of development sectors.

Neonatal environment exerts a sustained influence on the development of the intestinal microbiota and metabolic phenotype

The postnatal environment, including factors such as weaning and acquisition of the gut microbiota, has been causally linked to the development of later immunological diseases such as allergy and autoimmunity, and has also been associated with a predisposition to metabolic disorders. We show that the very early-life environment influences the development of both the gut microbiota and host metabolic phenotype in a porcine model of human infants. Farmpiglets were nursed by their mothers for 1 day, before removal to highly controlled, individual isolators where they received formula milk until weaning at 21 days. The experiment was repeated, to create two batches, which differed only in minor environmental fluctuations during the first day. At day 1 after birth, metabolic profiling of serum by 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy demonstrated significant, systemic, inter-batch variation which persisted until weaning. However, the urinary metabolic profiles demonstrated that significant inter-batch effects on 3-hydroxyisovalerate, trimethylamine-N-oxide and mannitol persisted beyond weaning to at least 35 days. Batch effects were linked to significant differences in the composition of colonic microbiota at 35 days, determined by 16 S pyrosequencing. Different weaning diets modulated both the microbiota and metabolic phenotype independently of the persistent batch effects. We demonstrate that the environment during the first day of life influences development of the microbiota and metabolic phenotype and thus should be taken into account when interrogating experimental outcomes. In addition, we suggest that intervention at this early time could provide ‘metabolic rescue’ for at-risk infants who have undergone aberrant patterns of initial intestinal colonisation.

On the threshold of adulthood: a new approach for the use of maturation indicators to assess puberty in adolescents from medieval England

Objectives: This study provides the first large scale analysis of the age at which adolescents in medieval England entered and completed the pubertal growth spurt. This new method has implications for expanding our knowledge of adolescent maturation across different time periods and regions. Methods: In total, 994 adolescent skeletons (10-25 years) from four urban sites in medieval England (AD 900-1550) were analysed for evidence of pubertal stage using new osteological techniques developed from the clinical literature (i.e. hamate hook development, CVM, canine mineralisation, iliac crest ossification, radial fusion). Results: Adolescents began puberty at a similar age to modern children at around 10-12 years, but the onset of menarche in girls was delayed by up to 3 years, occurring around 15 for most in the study sample and 17 years for females living in London. Modern European males usually complete their maturation by 16-18 years; medieval males took longer with the deceleration stage of the growth spurt extending as late as 21 years. Conclusions: This research provides the first attempt to directly assess the age of pubertal development in adolescents during the tenth to seventeenth centuries. Poor diet, infections, and physical exertion may have contributed to delayed development in the medieval adolescents, particularly for those living in the city of London. This study sheds new light on the nature of adolescence in the medieval period, highlighting an extended period of physical and social transition.

A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

Missing steps in a staircase: a qualitative study of the perspectives of key stakeholders on the use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Despite the promising benefits of adaptive designs (ADs), their routine use, especially in confirmatory trials, is lagging behind the prominence given to them in the statistical literature. Much of the previous research to understand barriers and potential facilitators to the use of ADs has been driven from a pharmaceutical drug development perspective, with little focus on trials in the public sector. In this paper, we explore key stakeholders’ experiences, perceptions and views on barriers and facilitators to the use of ADs in publicly funded confirmatory trials. Methods Semi-structured, in-depth interviews of key stakeholders in clinical trials research (CTU directors, funding board and panel members, statisticians, regulators, chief investigators, data monitoring committee members and health economists) were conducted through telephone or face-to-face sessions, predominantly in the UK. We purposively selected participants sequentially to optimise maximum variation in views and experiences. We employed the framework approach to analyse the qualitative data. Results We interviewed 27 participants. We found some of the perceived barriers to be: lack of knowledge and experience coupled with paucity of case studies, lack of applied training, degree of reluctance to use ADs, lack of bridge funding and time to support design work, lack of statistical expertise, some anxiety about the impact of early trial stopping on researchers’ employment contracts, lack of understanding of acceptable scope of ADs and when ADs are appropriate, and statistical and practical complexities. Reluctance to use ADs seemed to be influenced by: therapeutic area, unfamiliarity, concerns about their robustness in decision-making and acceptability of findings to change practice, perceived complexities and proposed type of AD, among others. Conclusions There are still considerable multifaceted, individual and organisational obstacles to be addressed to improve uptake, and successful implementation of ADs when appropriate. Nevertheless, inferred positive change in attitudes and receptiveness towards the appropriate use of ADs by public funders are supportive and are a stepping stone for the future utilisation of ADs by researchers.