Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.

Uncertainties associated with the representation of various physical processes in global climate models (GCMs) mean that, when projections from GCMs are used in climate change impact studies, the uncertainty propagates through to the impact estimates. A complete treatment of this ‘climate model structural uncertainty’ is necessary so that decision-makers are presented with an uncertainty range around the impact estimates. This uncertainty is often underexplored owing to the human and computer processing time required to perform the numerous simulations. Here, we present a 189-member ensemble of global river runoff and water resource stress simulations that adequately address this uncertainty. Following several adaptations and modifications, the ensemble creation time has been reduced from 750 h on a typical single-processor personal computer to 9 h of high-throughput computing on the University of Reading Campus Grid. Here, we outline the changes that had to be made to the hydrological impacts model and to the Campus Grid, and present the main results. We show that, although there is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and the sign of regional runoff changes across different GCMs with climate change, there is much less uncertainty in runoff changes for regions that experience large runoff increases (e.g. the high northern latitudes and Central Asia) and large runoff decreases (e.g. the Mediterranean). Furthermore, there is consensus that the percentage of the global population at risk to water resource stress will increase with climate change.

Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity.

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture–recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture–recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture–recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture–recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao’s lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates—in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture-recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture-recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture-recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture-recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao's lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates-in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

Benchmarking consensus model quality assessment for protein fold recognition

Background: Selecting the highest quality 3D model of a protein structure from a number of alternatives remains an important challenge in the field of structural bioinformatics. Many Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs) have been developed which adopt various strategies in order to tackle this problem, ranging from the so called "true" MQAPs capable of producing a single energy score based on a single model, to methods which rely on structural comparisons of multiple models or additional information from meta-servers. However, it is clear that no current method can separate the highest accuracy models from the lowest consistently. In this paper, a number of the top performing MQAP methods are benchmarked in the context of the potential value that they add to protein fold recognition. Two novel methods are also described: ModSSEA, which based on the alignment of predicted secondary structure elements and ModFOLD which combines several true MQAP methods using an artificial neural network. Results: The ModSSEA method is found to be an effective model quality assessment program for ranking multiple models from many servers, however further accuracy can be gained by using the consensus approach of ModFOLD. The ModFOLD method is shown to significantly outperform the true MQAPs tested and is competitive with methods which make use of clustering or additional information from multiple servers. Several of the true MQAPs are also shown to add value to most individual fold recognition servers by improving model selection, when applied as a post filter in order to re-rank models. Conclusion: MQAPs should be benchmarked appropriately for the practical context in which they are intended to be used. Clustering based methods are the top performing MQAPs where many models are available from many servers; however, they often do not add value to individual fold recognition servers when limited models are available. Conversely, the true MQAP methods tested can often be used as effective post filters for re-ranking few models from individual fold recognition servers and further improvements can be achieved using a consensus of these methods.

Surprisingly slow reaction of dimethylsilylene with dimethylgermane: time-resolved kinetic studies and related quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, and dimethylsilylene, SiMe2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of appropriate precursor molecules have been carried out to obtain rate constants for their bimolecular reactions with dimethylgermane, Me2GeH2, in the gas phase. SiMe2 + Me2GeH2 was studied at five temperatures in the range 299-555 K. Problems of substrate UV absorption at 193 nm at temperatures above 400 K meant that only three temperatures could be used reliably for rate constant measurement. These rate constants gave the Arrhenius parameters log(A/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = -13.25 +/- 0.16 and E-a = -(5.01 +/- 1.01) kJ mol(-1). Only room temperature studies of SiH2 were carried out. These gave values of (4.05 +/- 0.06) x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (SiH2 + Me2GeH2 at 295 K) and also (4.41 +/- 0.07) x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (SiH2 + MeGeH3 at 296 K). Rate constant comparisons show the surprising result that SiMe2 reacts 12.5 times slower with Me2GeH2 than with Me2SiH2. Quantum chemical calculations (G2(MP2,SVP)//B3LYP level) of the model Si-H and Ge-H insertion processes of SiMe2 with SiH4/MeSiH3 and GeH4/MeGeH3 support these findings and show that the lower reactivity of SiMe2 with Ge-H bonds is caused by a higher secondary barrier for rearrangement of the initially formed complexes. Full details of the structures of intermediate complexes and the discussion of their stabilities are given in the paper. Other, related, comparisons of silylene reactivity are also presented.

An investigation of the germylene addition reaction, GeH2+C2H2: Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic studies and quantum chemical calculations of the reaction energy surface

Time resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of 3,4-dimethylgermacyclopentene-3, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with acetylene, C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas-phase over the pressure range 1-100 Tort, with SF6 as bath gas, at 5 temperatures in the range 297-553 K. The reaction showed a very slight pressure dependence at higher temperatures. The high pressure rate constants (obtained by extrapolation at the three higher temperatures) gave the Arrhenius equation: log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) (-10.94 +/- 0.05) + (6.10 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RTln10. These Arrhenius parameters are consistent with a fast reaction occurring at approximately 30% of the collision rate at 298 K. Quantum chemical calculations (both DFT and ab initio G2//B3LYP and G2//QCISD) of the GeC2H4 potential energy surface (PES), show that GeH2 + C2H2 react initially to form germirene which can isomerise to vinylgermylene with a relatively low barrier. RRKM modelling, based on a loose association transition state, but assuming vinylgermylene is the end product (used in combination with a weak collisional deactivation model) predicts a strong pressure dependence using the calculated energies, in conflict with the experimental evidence. The detailed GeC2H4 PES shows considerable complexity with ten other accessible stable minima (B3LYP level), the three most stable of which are all germylenes. Routes through this complex surface were examined in detail. The only product combination which appears capable of satisfying the (P-3) + C2H4.C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC observed lack of a strong pressure dependence is Ge(P-3) + C2H4. C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC analysis. Although the formation of these products are shown to be possible by singlet-triplet curve crossing during dissociation of 1-germiranylidene (1-germacyclopropylidene), it seems more likely (on thermochernical grounds) that the triplet biradical, (GeCH2CH2.)-Ge-., is the immediate product precursor. Comparisons are made with the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with nitric oxide

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with NO. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas at five temperatures in the range 299-592 K. The second-order rate constants at 10 Torr fitted the Arrhenius equation log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (- 11.66 +/- 0.01) + (6.20 +/- 0.10 kJ mol(-1))IRT In 10 The rate constants showed a variation with pressure of a factor of ca. 2 over the available range, almost independent of temperature. The data could not be fitted by RRKM calculations to a simple third body assisted association reaction alone. However, a mechanistic model with an additional (pressure independent) side channel gave a reasonable fit to the data. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level supported a mechanism in which the initial adduct, bent H2SiNO, can ring close to form cyclo-H2SiNO, which is partially collisionally stabilized. In addition, bent H2SiNO can undergo a low barrier isomerization reaction leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are NH2 + SiO. The rate controlling barrier for this latter pathway is only 16 kJ mol(-1) below the energy of SiH2 + NO. This is consistent with the kinetic findings. A particular outcome of this work is that, despite the pressure dependence and the effects of the secondary barrier (in the side reaction), the initial encounter of SiH2 with NO occurs at the collision rate. Thus, silylene can be as reactive with odd electron molecules as with many even electron species. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + NO and SiCl2 + NO.

DNA cleavage and antitumour activity of platinum(II) and copper(II) compounds derived from 4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethyl)aminophenol: spectroscopic, electrochemical and biological investigation

The reaction of the redox-active ligand, Hpyramol (4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethyl)aminophenol) with K2PtCl4 yields monofunctional square-planar [Pt(pyrimol)Cl], PtL-Cl, which was structurally characterised by single-crystal X-ray diffraction and NMR spectroscopy. This compound unexpectedly cleaves supercoiled double-stranded DNA stoichiometrically and oxidatively, in a non-specific manner without any external reductant added, under physiological conditions. Spectro-electrochemical investigations of PtL-Cl were carried out in comparison with the analogue CuL-Cl as a reference compound. The results support a phenolate oxidation, generating a phenoxyl radical responsible for the ligand-based DNA cleavage property of the title compounds. Time-dependent in vitro cytotoxicity assays were performed with both PtL-Cl and CuL-Cl in various cancer cell lines. The compound CuL-Cl overcomes cisplatin-resistance in ovarian carcinoma and mouse leukaemia cell lines, with additional activity in some other cells. The platinum analogue, PtL-Cl also inhibits cell-proliferation selectively. Additionally, cellular-uptake studies performed for both compounds in ovarian carcinoma cell lines showed that significant amounts of Pt and Cu were accumulated in the A2780 and A2780R cancer cells. The conformational and structural changes induced by PtL-Cl and CuL-Cl on calf thymus DNA and phi X174 supercoiled phage DNA at ambient conditions were followed by electrophoretic mobility assay and circular dichroism spectroscopy. The compounds induce extensive DNA degradation and unwinding, along with formation of a monoadduct at the DNA minor groove. Thus, hybrid effects of metal-centre variation, multiple DNA-binding modes and ligand-based redox activity towards cancer cell-growth inhibition have been demonstrated. Finally, reactions of PtL-Cl with DNA model bases (9-Ethylguanine and 5'-GMP) followed by NMR and MS showed slow binding at Guanine-N7 and for the double stranded self complimentary oligonucleotide d(GTCGAC)(2) in the minor groove.

Antioxidant properties of malt model systems

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of kilning and roasting temperatures on antioxidant activity of malt model systems prepared from combinations of glucose, proline, and ferulic acid. Model systems (initial a(w) = 0.09, 6 % moisture) were heated at 60 degrees C for up to 24 h, at 90 degrees C for up to 120 min, and at 220 degrees C for up to 15 min. The antioxidant activity of the glucose-proline-ferulic acid model system increased significantly on heating at 60 degrees C; for 24 h or at 90 degrees C for 120 min. In contrast, the glucose-proline, ferulic acid-glucose, and ferulic acid-proline systems presented either nonsignificantly increased or unchanged antioxidant activity. The antioxidant activity of both the glucose-proline-ferulic acid and glucose-proline model systems increased significantly after heating at 220 degrees C for 10 min, followed by a significant decrease at 15 min. The data suggest that (1) at 60 degrees C, ferulic acid reacts with Maillard reaction products, resulting in a significant increase in antioxidant activity; (2) at 90 degrees C, the antioxidant activity of the glucose-proline-ferulic system comes from both ferulic acid and Maillard reaction products; and (3) at 220 degrees C, the major contributors to antioxidant activity in glucose-proline-ferulic acid and glucose-proline systems are glucose-proline reaction products.

The reaction of flavonoid metabolites with peroxynitrite

There is much interest in the bioactivity of in vivo flavonoid metabolites. We report for the first time the hierarchy of reactivity of flavonoid metabolites with peroxynitrite and characterise novel reaction products. O-Methylation of the B-ring catechol containing flavonoids epicatechin and quercetin, and O-glucuronidation of all flavonoids reduced their reactivity with peroxynitrite. The reaction of the flavanones hesperetin and naringenin and their glucuronides resulted in the formation of multiple mono-nitrated and nitrosated products. In contrast, the catechol-containing flavonoids epicatechin and quercetin yielded oxidation products which when trapped with glutathione led to the production of glutathionyl-conjugates. However, the O-methylated metabolites of epicatechin yielded both mono-and di-nitrated products and nitrosated metabolites. The 3'-O-methyl metabolite of quercetin also yielded a nitrosated species, although its counterpart 4'-O-methyl quercetin yielded only oxidation products. Such products may represent novel metabolic products in vivo and may also express cellular activity. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Successful manipulation of the quality and quantity of fat and carbohydrate consumed by free-living individuals using a food exchange model

Our objective in this study was to develop and implement an effective intervention strategy to manipulate the amount and composition of dietary fat and carbohydrate (CHO) in free-living individuals in the RISCK study. The study was a randomized, controlled dietary intervention study that was conducted in 720 participants identified as higher risk for or with metabolic syndrome. All followed a 4-wk run-in reference diet [high saturated fatty acids (SF)/high glycemic index (GI)]. Volunteers were randomized to continue this diet for a further 24 wk or to I of 4 isoenergetic prescriptions [high monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA)/high GI; high MUFA/low GI; low fat (LF)/high GI; and LF/low GI]. We developed a food exchange model to implement each diet. Dietary records and plasma phospholipid fatty acids were used to assess the effectiveness of the intervention strategy. Reported fat intake from the LF diets was significantly reduced to 28% of energy (%E) compared with 38% E from the HM and LF diets. SF intake was successfully decreased in the HM and LF diets was similar to 10% E compared with 17% E in the reference diet (P = 0.001). Dietary MUFA in the HIM diets was similar to 17% E, significantly higher than in the reference (12% E) and LF diets (10% E) (P = 0.001). Changes in plasma phospholipid fatty acids provided further evidence for the successful manipulation of fat intake. The GI of the HGI and LGI arms differed by similar to 9 points (P = 0.001). The food exchange model provided an effective dietary strategy for the design and implementation across multiple sites of 5 experimental diets with specific targets for the proportion of fat and CHO. J. Nutr. 139: 1534-1540, 2009.

The reaction of flavanols with nitrous acid protects against N-nitrosamine formation and leads to the formation of nitroso derivatives which inhibit cancer cell growth

Studies have suggested that diets rich in polyphenols Such as flavonoids may lead to a reduced risk of gastrointestinal cancers. We demonstrate the ability of monomeric and dimeric flavanols to scavenge reactive nitrogen species derived from nitrous acid. Both epicatechin and dimer B2 (epicatechin dimer) inhibited nitrous acid-induced formation of 3-nitrotyrosine and the formation of the carcinogenic N-nitrosamine, N-nitrosodimethylamine. The reaction of monomeric and dimeric epicatechin with nitrous acid led to the formation of mono- and di-nitroso flavanols, whereas the reaction with hesperetin resulted primarily in the formation of nitrated products. Although, epicatechin was transferred across the jejunum of the small intestine yielding metabolites, its nitroso form was not absorbed. Dimer B2 but not epicatechin monomer inhibited the proliferation of, and triggered apoptosis in, Caco-2 cells. The latter was accompanied by caspase-3 activation and reductions in Akt phosphorylation, suggesting activation of apoptosis via inhibition of prosurvival signaling. Furthermore, the dinitroso derivative of dimer B2, and to a lesser extent the dinitroso-epicatechin, also induced significant toxic effects in Caco-2 cells. The inhibitory effects on cellular proliferation were paralleled by early inhibition of ERK 1/2 phosphorylation and later reductions in cyclin D I levels, indicating modulation of cell cycle regulation in Caco-2 cells. These effects highlight multiple routes in which dietary derived flavanols may exert beneficial effects in the gastrointestinal tract. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigations on the effect of amino acids on acrylamide, pyrazines, and Michael addition products in model systems

Acrylamide and pyrazine formation, as influenced by the incorporation of different amino acids, was investigated in sealed low-moisture asparagine-glucose model systems. Added amino acids, with the exception of glycine and cysteine and at an equimolar concentration to asparagine, increased the rate of acrylamide formation. The strong correlation between the unsubstituted pyrazine and acrylamide suggests the promotion of the formation of Maillard reaction intermediates, and in particular glyoxal, as the determining mode of-action. At increased amino acid concentrations, diverse effects were observed. The initial rates of acrylamide formation remained high for valine, alanine, phenylalanine, tryptophan, glutamine, and Ieucine, while a significant mitigating effect, as evident from the acrylamide yields after 60 min of heating at 160 degrees C, was observed for proline, tryptophan, glycine, and cysteine. The secondary amine containing amino acids, proline and tryptophan, had the most profound mitigating effect on acrylamide after 60 min of heating. The relative importance of the competing effect of added amino acids for alpha-dicarbonyls and acrylamide-amino, acid alkylation reactions is discussed and accompanied by data on the relative formation rates of selected amino acid-AA adducts.

Acrylamide and pyrazine formation in model systems containing asparagine

The effect of different sugars and glyoxal on the formation of acrylamide in low-moisture starch-based model systems was studied, and kinetic data were obtained. Glucose was more effective than fructose, tagatose, or maltose in acrylamide formation, whereas the importance of glyoxal as a key sugar fragmentation intermediate was confirmed. Glyoxal formation was greater in model systems containing asparagine and glucose rather than fructose. A solid phase microextraction GC-MS method was employed to determine quantitatively the formation of pyrazines in model reaction systems. Substituted pyrazine formation was more evident in model systems containing fructose; however, the unsubstituted homologue, which was the only pyrazine identified in the headspace of glyoxal-asparagine systems, was formed at higher yields when aldoses were used as the reducing sugar. Highly significant correlations were obtained for the relationship between pyrazine and acrylamide formation. The importance of the tautomerization of the asparagine-carbonyl decarboxylated Schiff base in the relative yields of pyrazines and acrylamide is discussed.