Potential energy surface intersections in triatomic molecules

The different types of surface intersection which may occur in linear configurations of triatomic molecules are reviewed, particularly with regard to the way in which the degeneracy is split as the molecule bends. The Renner-Teller effect in states of symmetry Π, Δ, Φ, etc., and intersections between Σ and Π, Σ and Δ, and Π and Δ states are discussed. A general method of modelling such intersecting potential surfaces is proposed, as a development of the model previously used by Murrell and Carter and co-workers for single-valued surfaces. Some of the lower energy surfaces of H2O, NH2, O3, C3, and HNO are discussed as examples.

Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale

The structure and dynamics of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies generated by convective storms is investigated both theoretically and in a numerical model case study. Linear theory suggests that if the storm-induced heating is on a sufficiently small scale (relative to the Rossby radius of deformation), and the environment contains moderate vertical wind shear (of order 1 m s(-1) km(-1)), then the dominant mode of a diabatically generated PV anomaly is a horizontally oriented dipole. The horizontal dipoles are typically of O(10 PVU), compared with the O(1 PVU) vertical dipoles that have been studied extensively throughout the literature. Furthermore, the horizontal PV dipoles are realized almost entirely as relative vorticity anomalies (on a time-scale of the order of tens of minutes after the heating has been turned on). The analysis of horizontal PV dipoles offers a new perspective on the vorticity dynamics of individual convective cells, implying that moist processes play a role in the maintenance of vertical vorticity in the convective storm environment.

Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity.

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture–recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture–recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture–recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture–recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao’s lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates—in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Integrating woodland with pig production in the United Kingdom: an investigation of potential performance and interactions

Although silvopastoral systems involving pigs were once widespread in Britain, the practice has largely died out. However, recent changes in pig production techniques, consumer demands and the economic climate within which farmers operate, have led to renewed interest in both traditional and novel tree-pig systems. This paper describes a financial spreadsheet model (MAST) that was developed to: provide a means of determining financial performance of integrating finishing pigs with natural woodland; identify the likely importance of different as yet largely unresearched animal-tree interactions; and, determine which interactions warrant attention in research and management. Preliminary analysis suggests that the financial performance of this agroforestry enterprise could be superior to that of a pasture-based enterprise. The most important factors in determining incremental performance are identified as sales premia for ‘forest-reared’ pork, changes to feed conversion ratios arising from the provision of a heterogeneous microclimate, and the availability of cheaper land rents.

Integrating natural woodland with pig production in the United Kingdom: an investigation of potential performance and interactions

Although silvopastoral systems involving pigs were once widespread in Britain, the practice has largely died out. However, recent changes in pig production techniques, consumer demands and the economic climate within which farmers operate, have led to renewed interest in both traditional and novel tree-pig systems. This paper describes a financial spreadsheet model ( MAST) that was developed to: provide a means of determining financial performance of integrating finishing pigs with natural woodland; identify the likely importance of different as yet largely unresearched animal-tree interactions; and, determine which interactions warrant attention in research and management. Preliminary analysis suggests that the financial performance of this agroforestry enterprise could be superior to that of a pasture-based enterprise. The most important factors in determining incremental performance are identified as sales premia for 'forest-reared' pork, changes to feed conversion ratios arising from the provision of a heterogeneous microclimate, and the availability of cheaper land rents.

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

The economic viability and potential of a novel poultry agroforestry system

Investigating agroforestry systems that incorporate poultry is warranted in Northern Europe as they may offer benefits including: improved welfare and use of range; reduced feed costs; price premia on products; reduced payback periods for forests; and, greater returns on investment. Free-range egg production accounts for 27% of the United Kingdom egg market and demand for outdoor broilers is increasing. No research has been conducted recently on the economic viability of agroforestry systems with poultry. An economic model was constructed to: assess economic viability of a broiler agroforestry system; and, investigate the sensitivity of economic performance to key factors and interactions, and identify those which warrant attention in research and management. The system modelled is a commercial trial established in Southern England in 2002 where deciduous trees were planted and broilers reared in six- or nine-week periods. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation and financial performance analyses run for a 120-year period. An Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 15.5% is predicted for the six-week system which remains viable under a 'worst case' scenario (IRR of 12.6%). Factors which affect financial performance most (decreasing in magnitude) are prices achieved for broilers, costs of brooding houses, chicks, arks, feed and timber prices. The main anticipated effects of biological interactions on financial performance (increased ranging on feed conversion and excess nutrient supply on tree health) were not supported by analysis. Further research is particularly warranted on the welfare benefits offered by the tree component and its relation to price premia.

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture-recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture-recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture-recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture-recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao's lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates-in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

Suitability of Arabidopsis thaliana as a model for host plant-Plutella xylostella-Cotesia plutellae interactions

Successful pest management is often hindered by the inherent complexity of the interactions of a pest with its environment. The use of genetically characterized model plants can allow investigation of chosen aspects of these interactions by limiting the number of variables during experimentation. However, it is important to study the generic nature of these model systems if the data generated are to be assessed in a wider context, for instance, with those systems of commercial significance. This study assesses the suitability of Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh. (Brassicaceae) as a model host plant to investigate plant-herbivore-natural enemy interactions, with Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), the diamondback moth, and Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a parasitoid of P. xylostella. The growth and development of P. xylostella and C. plutellae on an A. thaliana host plant (Columbia type) were compared to that on Brassica rapa var. pekinensis (L.) (Brassicaceae), a host crop that is widely cultivated and also commonly used as a laboratory host for P. xylostella rearing. The second part of the study investigated the potential effect of the different A. thaliana background lines, Columbia and Landsberg (used in wider scientific studies), on growth and development of P. xylostella and C. plutellae. Plutella xylostella life history parameters were found generally to be similar between the host plants investigated. However, C. plutellae were more affected by the differences in host plant. Fewer adult parasitoids resulted from development on A. thaliana compared to B. rapa, and those that did emerge were significantly smaller. Adult male C. plutellae developing on Columbia were also significantly smaller than those on Landsberg A. thaliana.

Preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of YcdB from Escherichia coli: a novel haem-containing and Tat-secreted periplasmic protein with a potential role in iron transport

YcdB is a periplasmic haem-containing protein from Escherichia coli that has a potential role in iron transport. It is currently the only reported haem-containing Tat-secreted substrate. Here, the overexpression, purification, crystallization and structure determination at 2.0 angstrom resolution are reported for the apo form of the protein. The apo-YcdB structure resembles those of members of the haem-dependent peroxidase family and thus confirms that YcdB is also a member of this family. Haem-soaking experiments with preformed apo-YcdB crystals have been optimized to successfully generate haem-containing YcdB crystals that diffract to 2.9 angstrom. Completion of model building and structure refinement are under way.

Benchmarking consensus model quality assessment for protein fold recognition

Background: Selecting the highest quality 3D model of a protein structure from a number of alternatives remains an important challenge in the field of structural bioinformatics. Many Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs) have been developed which adopt various strategies in order to tackle this problem, ranging from the so called "true" MQAPs capable of producing a single energy score based on a single model, to methods which rely on structural comparisons of multiple models or additional information from meta-servers. However, it is clear that no current method can separate the highest accuracy models from the lowest consistently. In this paper, a number of the top performing MQAP methods are benchmarked in the context of the potential value that they add to protein fold recognition. Two novel methods are also described: ModSSEA, which based on the alignment of predicted secondary structure elements and ModFOLD which combines several true MQAP methods using an artificial neural network. Results: The ModSSEA method is found to be an effective model quality assessment program for ranking multiple models from many servers, however further accuracy can be gained by using the consensus approach of ModFOLD. The ModFOLD method is shown to significantly outperform the true MQAPs tested and is competitive with methods which make use of clustering or additional information from multiple servers. Several of the true MQAPs are also shown to add value to most individual fold recognition servers by improving model selection, when applied as a post filter in order to re-rank models. Conclusion: MQAPs should be benchmarked appropriately for the practical context in which they are intended to be used. Clustering based methods are the top performing MQAPs where many models are available from many servers; however, they often do not add value to individual fold recognition servers when limited models are available. Conversely, the true MQAP methods tested can often be used as effective post filters for re-ranking few models from individual fold recognition servers and further improvements can be achieved using a consensus of these methods.

Song development in birds: the role of early experience and its potential effect on rehabilitation success

Environmental conditions during the early life stages of birds can have significant effects on the quality of sexual signals in adulthood, especially song, and these ultimately have consequences for breeding success and fitness. This has wide-ranging implications for the rehabilitation protocols undertaken in wildlife hospitals which aim to return captive-reared animals to their natural habitat. Here we review the current literature on bird song development and learning in order to determine the potential impact that the rearing of juvenile songbirds in captivity can have on rehabilitation success. We quantify the effects of reduced learning on song structure and relate this to the possible effects on an individual's ability to defend a territory or attract a mate. We show the importance of providing a conspecific auditory model for birds to learn from in the early stages post-fledging, either via live- or tape-tutoring and provide suggestions for tutoring regimes. We also highlight the historical focus on learning in a few model species that has left an information gap in our knowledge for most species reared at wildlife hospitals.

Full-dimensional quantum calculations of ground-state tunneling splitting of malonaldehyde using an accurate ab initio potential energy surface

Quantum calculations of the ground vibrational state tunneling splitting of H-atom and D-atom transfer in malonaldehyde are performed on a full-dimensional ab initio potential energy surface (PES). The PES is a fit to 11 147 near basis-set-limit frozen-core CCSD(T) electronic energies. This surface properly describes the invariance of the potential with respect to all permutations of identical atoms. The saddle-point barrier for the H-atom transfer on the PES is 4.1 kcal/mol, in excellent agreement with the reported ab initio value. Model one-dimensional and "exact" full-dimensional calculations of the splitting for H- and D-atom transfer are done using this PES. The tunneling splittings in full dimensionality are calculated using the unbiased "fixed-node" diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) method in Cartesian and saddle-point normal coordinates. The ground-state tunneling splitting is found to be 21.6 cm(-1) in Cartesian coordinates and 22.6 cm(-1) in normal coordinates, with an uncertainty of 2-3 cm(-1). This splitting is also calculated based on a model which makes use of the exact single-well zero-point energy (ZPE) obtained with the MULTIMODE code and DMC ZPE and this calculation gives a tunneling splitting of 21-22 cm(-1). The corresponding computed splittings for the D-atom transfer are 3.0, 3.1, and 2-3 cm(-1). These calculated tunneling splittings agree with each other to within less than the standard uncertainties obtained with the DMC method used, which are between 2 and 3 cm(-1), and agree well with the experimental values of 21.6 and 2.9 cm(-1) for the H and D transfer, respectively. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.