Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM - sensitivity to convective parametrization

The sensitivity of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) General Circulation Model (UGCM) to two very different approaches to convective parametrization is described. Comparison is made between a Kuo scheme, which is constrained by large-scale moisture convergence, and a convective-adjustment scheme, which relaxes to observed thermodynamic states. Results from 360-day integrations with perpetual January conditions are used to describe the model's tropical time-mean climate and its variability. Both convection schemes give reasonable simulations of the time-mean climate, but the representation of the main modes of tropical variability is markedly different. The Kuo scheme has much weaker variance, confined to synoptic frequencies near 4 days, and a poor simulation of intraseasonal variability. In contrast, the convective-adjustment scheme has much more transient activity at all time-scales. The various aspects of the two schemes which might explain this difference are discussed. The particular closure on moisture convergence used in this version of the Kuo scheme is identified as being inappropriate.

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

The role of mean ocean salinity in climate

We describe numerical simulations designed to elucidate the role of mean ocean salinity in climate. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, we study a 100-year sensitivity experiment in which the global-mean salinity is approximately doubled from its present observed value, by adding 35 psu everywhere in the ocean. The salinity increase produces a rapid global-mean sea-surface warming of C within a few years, caused by reduced vertical mixing associated with changes in cabbeling. The warming is followed by a gradual global-mean sea-surface cooling of C within a few decades, caused by an increase in the vertical (downward) component of the isopycnal diffusive heat flux. We find no evidence of impacts on the variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The mean strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is reduced by 20% and the North Atlantic Deep Water penetrates less deeply. Nevertheless, our results dispute claims that higher salinities for the world ocean have profound consequences for the thermohaline circulation. In additional experiments with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, we find that the amplitude and spatial pattern of the global warming signal are modified in the hypersaline ocean. In particular, the equilibrated global-mean sea-surface temperature increase caused by doubling carbon dioxide is reduced by 10%. We infer the existence of a non-linear interaction between the climate responses to modified carbon dioxide and modified salinity.

Decomposition and phosphorus release from organic residues as affected by residue quality and added inorganic phosphorus

The combined use of organic residue and inorganic fertiliser-phosphorus (P) is appropriate in meeting both the short and long-term P requirement of crops. To assess the influence of added inorganic fertiliser-P on the processes of decomposition and P release from the residue and the relationships with quality, prunings of Gliricidia sepium, Leucaena leucocephela, Senna siamea, Acacia mangium and Paraserienthus falcataria were incubated without and with added inorganic fertiliser-P for 56 days. Soil was added only as inoculum. Decomposition rate and amounts of acid extractable-P (P release) were in the same order: G. sepium > S. siamea > L. leucocepheta > P falcataria > A. mangium. Unlike the other residues, A. mangium released no P despite the loss of half its mass during the 8 weeks of incubation. The residue P content correlated with P release. However, decomposition rate did not correlate with residue P content but with the lignin, polyphenol and cellulose content, and ratios to P. These ratios were negatively correlated with P release suggesting that lignin and polyphenol contents influence P release more when the residue-P content is low. Results suggest that rate of decomposition influences the release of P. The critical residue P content for P release was estimated to be 0.12% < P < 0.19%. Added P had no effect on decomposition and P release from the residues.

Utilisation by upland rice of plant residue- and fertiliser-phosphorus in two tropical acid soils

A dual isotopic technique was used to assess the effects of soil type, and residues of Gliricidia sepium, without and with added fertiliser-P on the utilisation of P. Upland rice (Oryza sativa) was grown for 70 days in two tropical acid soils of different P sorbing capacity and P status. Uniformly P-32-labelled soils were treated with inorganic fertiliser-P tagged with P-33, Gliricidia sepium residue applied at planting and 3 weeks earlier, and in a combination of fertiliser-P and Gliricidia applied at and 3 weeks before planting. There were significant responses of shoot and root weights, and total P uptake to Gliricidia- and/or fertiliser-P addition in the Ultisol (low P status) but not the Oxisol (high P status), suggesting that P in the latter soil was not yield limiting, despite the high standard P requirement. Similarly, incorporation of Gliricidia three weeks before planting further increased shoot weight only in the Ultisol. There were generally higher proportions, quantities and percent utilisations of the Gliricidia- P and fertiliser-P in the Ultisol than in the Oxisol. Gliricidia significantly increased the utilisation of fertiliser-P only in the Ultisol. However, early application of Gliricidia increased Gliricidia- P but not fertiliser-P utilisation in the Ultisol. Added fertiliser-P did not influence Gliricidia- P utilisation.

The use of FT-IR as a screening technique for organic residue analysis of archaeological samples

A range of archaeological samples have been examined using FT-IR spectroscopy. These include suspected coprolite samples from the Neolithic site of Catalhoyuk in Turkey, pottery samples from the Roman site of Silchester, UK and the Bronze Age site of Gatas, Spain and unidentified black residues on pottery sherds from the Roman sites of Springhead and Cambourne, UK. For coprolite samples the aim of FT-IR analysis is identification. Identification of coprolites in the field is based on their distinct orange colour; however, such visual identifications can often be misleading due to their similarity with deposits such as ochre and clay. For pottery the aim is to screen those samples that might contain high levels of organic residues which would be suitable for GC-MS analysis. The experiments have shown coprolites to have distinctive spectra, containing strong peaks from calcite, phosphate and quartz; the presence of phosphorus may be confirmed by SEM-EDX analysis. Pottery containing organic residues of plant and animal origin has also been shown to generally display strong phosphate peaks. FT-IR has distinguished between organic resin and non-organic compositions for the black residues, with differences also being seen between organic samples that have the same physical appearance. Further analysis by CC-MS has confirmed the identification of the coprolites through the presence of coprostanol and bile acids, and shows that the majority of organic pottery residues are either fatty acids or mono- or di-acylglycerols from foodstuffs, or triterpenoid resin compounds exposed to high temperatures. One suspected resin sample was shown to contain no organic residues. and it is seen that resin samples with similar physical appearances have different chemical compositions. FT-IR is proposed as a quick and cheap method of screening archaeological samples before subjecting them to the more expensive and time-consuming method of GC-MS. This will eliminate inorganic samples such as clays and ochre from CC-MS analysis, and will screen those samples which are most likely to have a high concentration of preserved organic residues. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Construction contract policy: do we mean what we say?

Recent developments in contracting practice in the UK have built upon recommendations contained in highprofile reports, such as those by Latham and Egan. However, the New Engineering Contract (NEC), endorsed by Latham, is based upon principles of contract drafting that seem open to question. Any contract operates in the context of its legislative environment and current working practices. This report identifies eight contentious hypotheses in the literature on construction contracts and tests their validity in a sample survey that attracted 190 responses. The survey shows, among other things, that while partnership is a positive and useful idea, authoritative contract management is considered more effective and that “win-win” contracts, while desirable, are basically impractical. Further, precision and fairness in contracts are not easy to achieve simultaneously. While participants should know what is in their contracts, they should not routinely resort to legal action; and standard-form contracts should not seek to be universally applicable. Fundamental changes to drafting policy should be undertaken within the context of current legal contract doctrine and with a sensitivity to the way that contracts are used in contemporary practice. Attitudes to construction contracting may seem to be changing on the surface, but detailed analysis of what lies behind apparent agreement on new ways of working reveals that attitudes are changing much more slowly than they appear to be.

Simulated global-mean sea level changes over the last half-millennium

Simulations of the last 500 yr carried out using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) with anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) forcings have been analyzed. Global-mean surface temperature change during the twentieth century is well reproduced. Simulated contributions to global-mean sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion (the largest term) and to mass loss from glaciers and ice caps agree within uncertainties with observational estimates of these terms, but their sum falls short of the observed rate of sea level rise. This discrepancy has been discussed by previous authors; a completely satisfactory explanation of twentieth-century sea level rise is lacking. The model suggests that the apparent onset of sea level rise and glacier retreat during the first part of the nineteenth century was due to natural forcing. The rate of sea level rise was larger during the twentieth century than during the previous centuries because of anthropogenic forcing, but decreasing natural forcing during the second half of the twentieth century tended to offset the anthropogenic acceleration in the rate. Volcanic eruptions cause rapid falls in sea level, followed by recovery over several decades. The model shows substantially less decadal variability in sea level and its thermal expansion component than twentieth-century observations indicate, either because it does not generate sufficient ocean internal variability, or because the observational analyses overestimate the variability.

Evaluation of a large-eddy model simulation of a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud using microwave radiometer, lidar and Doppler radar data

Using the Met Office large-eddy model (LEM) we simulate a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud that was observed from Chilbolton in southern England by a 94 GHz Doppler radar, a 905 nm lidar, a dual-wavelength microwave radiometer and also by four radiosondes. It is important to test and evaluate such simulations with observations, since there are significant differences between results from different cloud-resolving models for ice clouds. Simulating the Doppler radar and lidar data within the LEM allows us to compare observed and modelled quantities directly, and allows us to explore the relationships between observed and unobserved variables. For general-circulation models, which currently tend to give poor representations of mixed-phase clouds, the case shows the importance of using: (i) separate prognostic ice and liquid water, (ii) a vertical resolution that captures the thin layers of liquid water, and (iii) an accurate representation the subgrid vertical velocities that allow liquid water to form. It is shown that large-scale ascents and descents are significant for this case, and so the horizontally averaged LEM profiles are relaxed towards observed profiles to account for these. The LEM simulation then gives a reasonable. cloud, with an ice-water path approximately two thirds of that observed, with liquid water at the cloud top, as observed. However, the liquid-water cells that form in the updraughts at cloud top in the LEM have liquid-water paths (LWPs) up to half those observed, and there are too few cells, giving a mean LWP five to ten times smaller than observed. In reality, ice nucleation and fallout may deplete ice-nuclei concentrations at the cloud top, allowing more liquid water to form there, but this process is not represented in the model. Decreasing the heterogeneous nucleation rate in the LEM increased the LWP, which supports this hypothesis. The LEM captures the increase in the standard deviation in Doppler velocities (and so vertical winds) with height, but values are 1.5 to 4 times smaller than observed (although values are larger in an unforced model run, this only increases the modelled LWP by a factor of approximately two). The LEM data show that, for values larger than approximately 12 cm s(-1), the standard deviation in Doppler velocities provides an almost unbiased estimate of the standard deviation in vertical winds, but provides an overestimate for smaller values. Time-smoothing the observed Doppler velocities and modelled mass-squared-weighted fallspeeds shows that observed fallspeeds are approximately two-thirds of the modelled values. Decreasing the modelled fallspeeds to those observed increases the modelled IWC, giving an IWP 1.6 times that observed.