The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO2-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO2-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

On the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport to climate change in coupled climate models

The CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) models show a consistent intensification and poleward shift of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean during the 21st century. However, the responses of the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents (ACC) show great diversity in these models, with many even showing reductions in transport. To obtain some understanding of diverse responses in the ACC transport, we investigate both external atmospheric and internal oceanic processes that control the ACC transport responses in these models. While the strengthened westerlies act to increase the tilt of isopycnal surfaces and hence the ACC transport through Ekman pumping effects, the associated changes in buoyancy forcing generally tend to reduce the surface meridional density gradient. The steepening of isopycnal surfaces induced by increased wind forcing leads to enhanced (parameterized) eddy-induced transports that act to reduce the isopycnal slopes. There is also considerable narrowing of the ACC that tends to reduce the ACC transport, caused mainly by the poleward shifts of the subtropical gyres and to a lesser extent by the equatorward expansions of the subpolar gyres in some models. If the combined effect of these retarding processes is larger than that of enhanced Ekman pumping, the ACC transport will be reduced. In addition, the effect of Ekman pumping on the ACC is reduced in weakly stratified models. These findings give insight into the reliability of IPCC-class model predictions of the Southern Ocean circulation, and into the observed decadal-scale steady ACC transport.

Solar physics: shining a light on solar impacts

Comparing changes in temperature and solar radiation on centennial timescales can help to constrain the Sun’s impact on climate. New findings regarding the minimum activity level of the Sun reveal that comparisons made so far may have been too simplistic.

Technological change and the challenges for regional development: building social capital in less-favoured regions

The relevance of regional policy for less favoured regions (LFRs) reveals itself when policy-makers must reconcile competitiveness with social cohesion through the adaptation of competition or innovation policies. The vast literature in this area generally builds on an overarching concept of ‘social capital’ as the necessary relational infrastructure for collective action diversification and policy integration, in a context much influenced by a dynamic of industrial change and a necessary balance between the creation and diffusion of ‘knowledge’ through learning. This relational infrastructure or ‘social capital’ is centred on people’s willingness to cooperate and ‘envision’ futures as a result of “social organization, such as networks, norms and trust that facilitate action and cooperation for mutual benefit” (Putnam, 1993: 35). Advocates of this interpretation of ‘social capital’ have adopted the ‘new growth’ thinking behind ‘systems of innovation’ and ‘competence building’, arguing that networks have the potential to make both public administration and markets more effective as well as ‘learning’ trajectories more inclusive of the development of society as a whole. This essay aims to better understand the role of ‘social capital’ in the production and reproduction of uneven regional development patterns, and to critically assess the limits of a ‘systems concept’ and an institution-centred approach to comparative studies of regional innovation. These aims are discussed in light of the following two assertions: i) learning behaviour, from an economic point of view, has its determinants, and ii) the positive economic outcomes of ‘social capital’ cannot be taken as a given. It is suggested that an agent-centred approach to comparative research best addresses the ‘learning’ determinants and the consequences of social networks on regional development patterns. A brief discussion of the current debate on innovation surveys has been provided to illustrate this point.

Photo-induced phase transitions in azobenzene-doped liquid crystals

The effect of irradiation (UV-visible light) on a nematic liquid crystal doped with a photoactive azobenzene derivative was investigated. The selective irradiation results in either an E implies Z or Z implies E isomerization of the azobenzene unit. The effect of the isomerization is to cause a reversible depression of the liquid crystal to isotropic (LC implies l) phase transition temperature of the doped mixture, which can be monitored optically as an isothermal phase transition. This depression also results in a biphasic liquid crystal+isotropic region which is discussed. The authors investigate the cause and magnitude of the phase depression as a function of the amount of doped 4-butyl-4'-methoxyazobenzene (photoactive unit) in 4-cyano-4'-n-pentylbiphenyl (liquid crystal unit), and as a function of the percentage conversion of E implies Z (caused by isomerization) in the azobenzene. The photostationary state of the doped mixtures achieved by Z implies E isomerization is considered and its effect upon the transition temperature of the mixture and response time of the system is discussed. They discuss the implications of the photostationary state with regards to the reversibility of the photo-induced phase transition and hence potential applications.

Diagnosing eclipse-induced wind changes

Responses in surface winds to solar eclipses have an almost mystical status but are difficult to detect in observations because of their transient nature. High spatial resolution (approx. 1.5 km grid) meteorological models now provide a new technique for their investigation. Measurements from the southern UK meteorological network during the 11 August 1999 total solar eclipse are compared with a high-resolution model ignorant of the lunar shadow’s influence. Differences between the model output and measurements at the eclipse time show transient eclipse zone temperature decreases of up to 3 degrees C, which also depressed the day’s maximum temperature compared with the model prediction. Coherent responses in temperature, and wind speed and direction measurements are detected in the inland cloud-free region (from 51 to 52 degrees N and −2 to 0 degrees E). A mean regional wind speed decrease of 0.7 m s−1 during the maximum eclipse hour is apparent with a mean anticlockwise wind direction change of 17 degrees; no such changes occurred in the model output. Such regional circulation changes are consistent with Clayton’s 1901 cold-cored eclipse cyclone hypothesis, which may be related to the anecdotal ‘eclipse wind’.

Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux

Now that stratospheric ozone depletion has been controlled by the Montreal Protocol1, interest has turned to the effects of climate change on the ozone layer. Climate models predict an accelerated stratospheric circulation, leading to changes in the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone and an increased stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux. Here we use an atmospheric chemistry climate model to isolate the effects of climate change from those of ozone depletion and recovery on stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux and the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index—a measure of potential human exposure to ultraviolet radiation. We show that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change moderate emissions scenario, global stratosphere-to- troposphere ozone flux increases by 23% between 1965 and 2095 as a result of climate change. During this time, the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index decreases by 9% in northern high latitudes — a much larger effect than that of stratospheric ozone recovery — and increases by 4% in the tropics, and by up to 20% in southern high latitudes in late spring and early summer. The latter increase in the ultraviolet index is equivalent to nearly half of that generated by the Antarctic ‘ozone hole’ that was created by anthropogenic halogens. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the tropospheric ozone budget and the ultraviolet index, which would have consequences for tropospheric radiative forcing, air quality and human and ecosystem health.

Testing the sustainability and sensitivity to climatic change of terrace agricultural systems in the Peruvian Andes: a pilot study

The results of an integrated geoarchaeological and palaeoecological pilot study of a prehistoric agricultural terrace and nearby mire basin are presented. They reveal two stages of terrace construction for the cultivation of Zea mays during the Middle Horizon (615–695 AD) and late, Late Intermediate Period (1200–1400 AD). These stages were strongly associated with evidence for vegetation succession, destabilisation and erosion of the surrounding landscape, and changes in mire surface wetness. The reasons for agricultural terrace abandonment and/or reconstruction are uncertain, with only circumstantial evidence for climatically induced agricultural change.

Relationship between dietary-induced changes in intestinal commensal microflora and duodenojejunal myoelectric activity monitored by radiotelemetry in the rat in vivo

Interdigestive intestinal motility, and especially phase III of the migrating myoelectric/motor complex (MMC), is responsible for intestinal clearance and plays an important role in prevention of bacterial overgrowth and translocation in the gut. Yet previous results from gnotobiotic rats have shown that intestinal microflora can themselves affect the characteristics of the myoelectric activity of the gut during the interdigestive state. Given that the composition of the intestinal microflora can be altered by dietary manipulations, we investigated the effect of supplementation of the diet with synbiotics on intestinal microflora structure and the duodenojejunal myoelectric activity in the rat. To reduce animal distress caused by restraint and handling, which can itself affect GI motility, we applied radiotelemetry for duodenojejunal EMG recordings in conscious, freely moving rats. Thirty 16-month-old Spraque-Dawley rats were used. The diet for 15 rats (E group) was supplemented with chicory inulin, Lactobacillus rhamnosus and Bifidobacterium lactis. The remaining 15 rats were fed control diet without supplements (C group). Three rats from each group were implanted with three bipolar electrodes positioned at 2, 14 and 28 cm distal to the pylorus. After recovery, two 6 h recordings of duodenojejunal EMG were carried out on each operated rat. Subsequently, group C rats received feed supplements and group E rats received only control diet for 1 week, and an additional two 6 h recordings were carried out on each of these rats. Non-operated C and E rats were killed and samples of GI tract were collected for microbiological analyses. Supplementation of the diet with the pro- and prebiotics mixture increased the number of bifidobacteria, whereas it decreased the number of enterobacteria in jejunum, ileum, caecum and colon. In both caecum and colon, the dietary supplementation increased the number of total anaerobes and lactobacilli. Treatment with synbiotics increased occurrence of phase III of the MMC at all three levels of the small intestine. The propagation velocity of phase III in the whole recording segment was also increased from 3.7 +/- 0.2 to 4.4 +/- 0.2 cm min(-1) by dietary treatment. Treatment with synbiotics increased the frequency of response potentials of the propagated phase III of the MMC at both levels of the jejunum, but not in the duodenum. In both parts of the jejunum, the supplementation of the diet significantly decreased the duration of phase II of the MMC, while it did not change the duration of phase I and phase III. Using the telemetry technique it was demonstrated that changes in the gastrointestinal microflora exhibited an intestinal motility response and, more importantly, that such changes can be initiated by the addition of synbiotics to the diet.

Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change

Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable distributions in these parameters. The ocean heat uptake efficiency varies by a factor of two across the models, explaining about 50% of the spread in ocean heat uptake in CMIP5 models with CO2 increasing at 1%/year. It correlates with the ocean global-mean vertical profiles both of temperature and of temperature change, and comparison with observations suggests the models may overestimate ocean heat uptake and underestimate surface warming, because their stratification is too weak. The models agree on the location of maxima of shallow ocean heat uptake (above 700 m) in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and on deep ocean heat uptake (below 2000 m) in areas of the Southern Ocean, in some places amounting to 40% of the top-to-bottom integral in the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat uptake; consequently the eddy-induced thickness diffusivity parameter, which is particularly influential in the Southern Ocean, correlates with the ocean heat uptake efficiency. The thermal expansion produced by ocean heat uptake is 0.12 m YJ−1, with an uncertainty of about 10% (1 YJ = 1024 J).

Urban land and property ownership patterns in the UK: trends and forces for change

The first part of this review examines what is meant by ‘urban land and property’ (ULP) and looks at the background of ULP in the light of trends in UK urban areas over the past 50 years. Key conceptual approaches to the ULP ‘ownership issue’ are identified, together with the constraints to empirical analysis, which include a lack of data and patchy and inconsistent datasets. Three main components of ULP ownership in the UK are then examined using published data on commercial property, residential property and urban land, including ‘previously developed land’ (PDL) and ‘development land, covering both the private and public sectors. The review examines past trends in ULP ownership patterns in these sectors within the UK, and the key drivers which have created the present day patterns of ULP ownership. It concludes by identifying possible future trends in ULP ownership over the next 50 years to 2060 in the three main ULP sectors.

Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, published in 2007 came to a more confident assessment of the causes of global temperature change than previous reports and concluded that ‘it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.’ Since then, warming over Antarctica has also been attributed to human influence, and further evidence has accumulated attributing a much wider range of climate changes to human activities. Such changes are broadly consistent with theoretical understanding, and climate model simulations, of how the planet is expected to respond. This paper reviews this evidence from a regional perspective to reflect a growing interest in understanding the regional effects of climate change, which can differ markedly across the globe. We set out the methodological basis for detection and attribution and discuss the spatial scales on which it is possible to make robust attribution statements. We review the evidence showing significant human-induced changes in regional temperatures, and for the effects of external forcings on changes in the hydrological cycle, the cryosphere, circulation changes, oceanic changes, and changes in extremes. We then discuss future challenges for the science of attribution. To better assess the pace of change, and to understand more about the regional changes to which societies need to adapt, we will need to refine our understanding of the effects of external forcing and internal variability

Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China. Part I: Observational evidence

Summer rainfall over China has experienced substantial variability on longer time scales during the last century, and the question remains whether this is due to natural, internal variability or is part of the emerging signal of anthropogenic climate change. Using the best available observations over China, the decadal variability and recent trends in summer rainfall are investigated with the emphasis on changes in the seasonal evolution and on the temporal characteristics of daily rainfall. The possible relationships with global warming are reassessed. Substantial decadal variability in summer rainfall has been confirmed during the period 1958–2008; this is not unique to this period but is also seen in the earlier decades of the twentieth century. Two dominant patterns of decadal variability have been identified that contribute substantially to the recent trend of southern flooding and northern drought. Natural decadal variability appears to dominate in general but in the cases of rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall days, particularly light rain days, then the dominant EOFs have a rather different character, being of one sign over most of China, and having principal components (PCs) that appear more trendlike. The increasing intensity of rainfall throughout China and the decrease in light rainfall days, particularly in the north, could at least partially be of anthropogenic origin, both global and regional, linked to increased greenhouse gases and increased aerosols.

Borrowing and shift-induced interference: contrasting patterns in French-Germanic contact in Brussels and Strasbourg

The main aim of the present article is to test hypotheses derived from the model for contact- induced language change as formulated in Thomason and Kaufman (1988 et seq.). As the model correctly predicts the asymmetries between the mutual influences of the Germanic and the Romance varieties in Brussels and Strasbourg it is a very powerful tool for describing the contact patterns in these cities. The analysis shows that the contact patterns are very similar, both from a quantitative and from a qualitative point of view, despite important differences in the sociolinguistic situation of both cities. The striking similarities in the outcome of language contact seem to find a plausible explanation in the fact that the language contact situations in both cities are similar from a typological point of view: in each city a variety of French is in contact with a Germanic variety (Alsatian and Brussels Dutch). Thus, the claim of the present article is that the structure of the languages plays a more prominent role in the outcome of language contact than the sociolinguistic history of the speakers.

The role of transfer in language variation and change: Evidence from contact varieties of French

In this Special Issue, the focus is on contact-induced language variation and change in situations of societal bilingualism that involve long-term contact between French and another language. As is well known, when two or more languages are spoken by groups of speakers in the same geographical area, over time, features from one language can be transferred to the other language, especially when the languages in question are unequal in terms of prestige, institutional support and demographic factors. The process that leads to the adoption of such features in the contact languages is generally known as INTERFERENCE or TRANSFER, and these terms are also used to describe the features in question (i.e. the end product of the process of transfer). In this issue we prefer to use the term TRANSFER over the use of the notion INTERFERENCE, as the former has fewer negative connotations than the latter.