Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change

Floods are a major threat to human existence and historically have both caused the collapse of civilizations and forced the emergence of new cultures. The physical processes of flooding are complex. Increased population, climate variability, change in catchment and channel management, modified landuse and land cover, and natural change of floodplains and river channels all lead to changes in flood dynamics, and as a direct or indirect consequence, social welfare of humans. Section 5.16.1 explores the risks and benefits brought about by floods and reviews the responses of floods and floodplains to climate and landuse change. Section 5.08.2 reviews the existing modeling tools, and the top–down and bottom–up modeling frameworks that are used to assess impacts on future floods. Section 5.08.3 discusses changing flood risk and socioeconomic vulnerability based on current trends in emerging or developing countries and presents an alternative paradigm as a pathway to resilience. Section 5.08.4 concludes the chapter by stating a portfolio of integrated concepts, measures, and avant-garde thinking that would be required to sustainably manage future flood risk.

Reducing inconsistencies in point observations of maximum flood inundation level

Flood simulation models and hazard maps are only as good as the underlying data against which they are calibrated and tested. However, extreme flood events are by definition rare, so the observational data of flood inundation extent are limited in both quality and quantity. The relative importance of these observational uncertainties has increased now that computing power and accurate lidar scans make it possible to run high-resolution 2D models to simulate floods in urban areas. However, the value of these simulations is limited by the uncertainty in the true extent of the flood. This paper addresses that challenge by analyzing a point dataset of maximum water extent from a flood event on the River Eden at Carlisle, United Kingdom, in January 2005. The observation dataset is based on a collection of wrack and water marks from two postevent surveys. A smoothing algorithm for identifying, quantifying, and reducing localized inconsistencies in the dataset is proposed and evaluated showing positive results. The proposed smoothing algorithm can be applied in order to improve flood inundation modeling assessment and the determination of risk zones on the floodplain.

Forests of the tropical eastern Andean flank during the middle pleistocene

Inter-bedded volcanic and organic sediments from Erazo (Ecuador) indicate the presence of four different forest assemblages on the eastern Andean flank during the middle Pleistocene. Radiometric dates (40Ar–39Ar) obtained fromthe volcanic ash indicate that deposition occurred between 620,000 and 192,000 years ago. Examination of the organic sediment composition and the fossil pollen, wood and charcoal it contains provides insight into depositional environment, vegetation assemblage and fire history. The high organic content and abundance of macro fossils found throughout the sediment suggest that during the period of deposition the local environment was either a swamp or a shallow water body. The correlation of fire activity (peaks in charcoal abundance) with volcanic ash deposits through most of the record suggests that volcanoes were the main source of ignition. The low abundance of grass (typically b10%) throughout the sedimentary sequence along with the low abundance of other taxa indicative of open vegetation suggests the persistence of forest at Erazo. Four types of forest assemblage were identified (with the first taxa as the most dominant): i) Alnus-Arecaceae, ii) Miconia- Melastomataceae/Combretaceae-Moraceae/Urticaceae, iii) Arecaceae-Alnus, and iv) Podocarpus with Oreopanax sp. and Melastomataceae/Combretaceae. Changes in the forest floristic composition indicate high vegetation turnover and reassortment of taxa between upper and lower montane forests during the middle Pleistocene as well as the persistence of forest cover.

MODIS-based vegetation index has sufficient sensitivity to indicate stand-level intra-seasonal climatic stress in oak and beech forests

Context: Variation in photosynthetic activity of trees induced by climatic stress can be effectively evaluated using remote sensing data. Although adverse effects of climate on temperate forests have been subjected to increased scrutiny, the suitability of remote sensing imagery for identification of drought stress in such forests has not been explored fully. Aim: To evaluate the sensitivity of MODIS-based vegetation index to heat and drought stress in temperate forests, and explore the differences in stress response of oaks and beech. Methods: We identified 8 oak and 13 beech pure and mature stands, each covering between 4 and 13 MODIS pixels. For each pixel, we extracted a time series of MODIS NDVI from 2000 to 2010. We identified all sequences of continuous unseasonal NDVI decline to be used as the response variable indicative of environmental stress. Neural Networks-based regression modelling was then applied to identify the climatic variables that best explain observed NDVI declines. Results: Tested variables explained 84–97% of the variation in NDVI, whilst air temperature-related climate extremes were found to be the most influential. Beech showed a linear response to the most influential climatic predictors, while oak responded in a unimodal pattern suggesting a better coping mechanism. Conclusions: MODIS NDVI has proved sufficiently sensitive as a stand-level indicator of climatic stress acting upon temperate broadleaf forests, leading to its potential use in predicting drought stress from meteorological observations and improving parameterisation of forest stress indices.

New models of North West European Holocene palaeogeography and inundation

This paper presents new 500 year interval palaeogeographic models for Britain, Ireland and the North West French coast from 11000 cal. BP to present. These models are used to calculate the varying rates of inundation for different geographical zones over the study period. This allows for consideration of the differential impact that Holocene sea-level rise had across space and time, and on past societies. In turn, consideration of the limitations of the models helps to foreground profitable areas for future research.

Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

The development of soil organic matter in restored biodiverse Jarrah forests of South-Western Australia as determined by ASE and GCMS

Background, aim and scope Soil organic matter (SOM) is known to increase with time as landscapes recover after a major disturbance; however, little is known about the evolution of the chemistry of SOM in reconstructed ecosystems. In this study, we assessed the development of SOM chemistry in a chronosequence (space for time substitution) of restored Jarrah forest sites in Western Australia. Materials and methods Replicated samples were taken at the surface of the mineral soil as well as deeper in the profile at sites of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 years of age. A molecular approach was developed to distinguish and quantify numerous individual compounds in SOM. This used accelerated solvent extraction in conjunction with gas chromatography mass spectrometry. A novel multivariate statistical approach was used to assess changes in accelerated solvent extraction (ASE)-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCMS) spectra. This enabled us to track SOM developmental trajectories with restoration time. Results Results showed total carbon concentrations approached that of native forests soils by 17 years of restoration. Using the relate protocol in PRIMER, we demonstrated an overall linear relationship with site age at both depths, indicating that changes in SOM chemistry were occurring. Conclusions The surface soils were seen to approach native molecular compositions while the deeper soil retained a more stable chemical signature, suggesting litter from the developing diverse plant community has altered SOM near the surface. Our new approach for assessing SOM development, combining ASE-GCMS with illuminating multivariate statistical analysis, holds great promise to more fully develop ASE for the characterisation of SOM.

Mining in Ghana’s forests: cross-sectoral linkages and the prospects for REDD

Strategies to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) are being pursued in numerous developing countries. Proponents contest that REDD mechanisms could deliver sustainable development by contributing to both environmental protection and economic development, particularly in poor forest communities. However, among the challenges to REDD, and natural resource management more generally, is the need to develop a comprehensive understanding of cross-sectoral linkages and addressing how they impact the pursuit of sustainable development. Drawing on an exploratory case-study of Ghana, this paper aims to outline the linkages between the forestry and minerals sectors. It is argued that contemporary debates give incommensurate attention to the reclamation of large-scale mine sites located in forest reserves, and neglect to consider more nuanced links which characterise the forestry-mining nexus in Ghana. A review of key stakeholders further elucidates the complex networks which characterise these linkages and highlights the important role of traditional authorities in governing across sectors. If the multiple roles of local resource users and traditional authorities continue to be neglected in policy mechanisms, schemes such as REDD will continue to fall short of achieving sustainable development.

Trees for development? Articulating the ambiguities of power, authority and legitimacy in governing Ghana’s mineral rich forests

The growth of mining activities in Africa in the last decade has coincided with increased attention on the fate of the continent’s forests, specifically in the contexts of livelihoods and climate change. Although mining has serious environmental impacts, scant attention has been paid to the processes which shape decision-making in contexts where minerals and forests overlap. Focussing on the illustrative case of Ghana, this paper articulates the dynamics of power, authority and legitimacy of private companies, traditional authorities and key state institutions in governing mining activities in forests. The analysis highlights how mining companies and donors promote a neoliberal model of resource management which entrenches their ability to benefit from mineral exploitation and marginalises the role of state institutions and traditional authorities in decision-making. This subsequently erodes state authority and legitimacy and compounds the contested nature of traditional authorities’ legitimacy. A more nuanced examination of foundational governance questions concerning the relative role of the state, traditional authorities and private interests is needed.

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post-peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition

Differentiation of neotropical ecosystems by modern soil phytolith assemblages and its implications for palaeoenvironmental and archaeological reconstructions II: Southwestern Amazonian forests

Accurate archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions using phytoliths relies on the study of modern reference material. In eastern Acre, Brazil, we examined whether the five most common forest types present today were able to be differentiated by their soil phytolith assemblages, and thus provide analogues with which to compare palaeoecological assemblages from pre-Columbian earthwork sites in the region. Surface soils and vegetation from dense humid evergreen forest, dense humid evergreen forest with high palm abundance, palm forest, bamboo forest and fluvial forest were sampled and their phytoliths analysed. Relative phytolith frequencies were statistically compared using Principal Components Analyses (PCAs). We found the major differences in species composition to be well-represented by the phytolith assemblages as all forest types, apart from the two sub-types of dense humid evergreen forest, could be differentiated. Larger phytoliths from the sand fraction were found to be more ecologically diagnostic than those from the silt fraction. The surface soil phytolith assemblages we analysed can therefore be used as analogues to improve the accuracy of archaeological and palaeoecological reconstructions in the region.