Testing for non-stationarity and cointegration allowing for the possibility of a structural break: an application to EuroSterling interest rates

In this paper we examine the order of integration of EuroSterling interest rates by employing techniques that can allow for a structural break under the null and/or alternative hypothesis of the unit-root tests. In light of these results, we investigate the cointegrating relationship implied by the single, linear expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates employing two techniques, one of which allows for the possibility of a break in the mean of the cointegrating relationship. The aim of the paper is to investigate whether or not the interest rate series can be viewed as I(1) processes and furthermore, to consider whether there has been a structural break in the series. We also determine whether, if we allow for a break in the cointegration analysis, the results are consistent with those obtained when a break is not allowed for. The main results reported in this paper support the conjecture that the ‘short’ Euro-currency rates are characterised as I(1) series that exhibit a structural break on or near Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992, whereas the ‘long’ rates are I(1) series that do not support the presence of a structural break. The evidence from the cointegration analysis suggests that tests of the expectations hypothesis based on data sets that include the ERM crisis period, or a period that includes a structural break, might be problematic if the structural break is not explicitly taken into account in the testing framework.

Turning points: the personal and professional circumstances that lead academics to become middle managers

In the current higher education climate, there is a growing perception that the pressures associated with being an academic middle manager outweigh the perceived rewards of the position. This article investigates the personal and professional circumstances that lead academics to become middle managers by drawing on data from life history interviews undertaken with 17 male and female department heads from a range of disciplines, in a post-1992 UK university. The data suggests that experiencing conflict between personal and professional identities, manifested through different socialization experiences over time, can lead to a ‘turning point’ and a decision that affects a person’s career trajectory. Although the results of this study cannot be generalized, the findings may help other individuals and institutions move towards a firmer understanding of the academic who becomes head of department—in relation to theory, practice and research.

Colonization-induced host-gut microbial metabolic interaction

The gut microbiota enhances the host's metabolic capacity for processing nutrients and drugs and modulate the activities of multiple pathways in a variety of organ systems. We have probed the systemic metabolic adaptation to gut colonization for 20 days following exposure of axenic mice (n = 35) to a typical environmental microbial background using high-resolution (1)H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to analyze urine, plasma, liver, kidney, and colon (5 time points) metabolic profiles. Acquisition of the gut microbiota was associated with rapid increase in body weight (4%) over the first 5 days of colonization with parallel changes in multiple pathways in all compartments analyzed. The colonization process stimulated glycogenesis in the liver prior to triggering increases in hepatic triglyceride synthesis. These changes were associated with modifications of hepatic Cyp8b1 expression and the subsequent alteration of bile acid metabolites, including taurocholate and tauromuricholate, which are essential regulators of lipid absorption. Expression and activity of major drug-metabolizing enzymes (Cyp3a11 and Cyp2c29) were also significantly stimulated. Remarkably, statistical modeling of the interactions between hepatic metabolic profiles and microbial composition analyzed by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing revealed strong associations of the Coriobacteriaceae family with both the hepatic triglyceride, glucose, and glycogen levels and the metabolism of xenobiotics. These data demonstrate the importance of microbial activity in metabolic phenotype development, indicating that microbiota manipulation is a useful tool for beneficially modulating xenobiotic metabolism and pharmacokinetics in personalized health care. IMPORTANCE: Gut bacteria have been associated with various essential biological functions in humans such as energy harvest and regulation of blood pressure. Furthermore, gut microbial colonization occurs after birth in parallel with other critical processes such as immune and cognitive development. Thus, it is essential to understand the bidirectional interaction between the host metabolism and its symbionts. Here, we describe the first evidence of an in vivo association between a family of bacteria and hepatic lipid metabolism. These results provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that regulate host-gut microbiota interactions and are thus of wide interest to microbiological, nutrition, metabolic, systems biology, and pharmaceutical research communities. This work will also contribute to developing novel strategies in the alteration of host-gut microbiota relationships which can in turn beneficially modulate the host metabolism.

Are property prices non-linear? An investigation of the behaviour of US REITs and UK property company shares

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behaviour. Price movements in the US Real Estate Investment Trusts and UK Property Companies Markets are explored using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both US and UK markets, distinctive behaviour emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behaviour across regimes.

Partnership in the provision of recreational access: the reconstruction of the public interest in private land in England and Wales

This paper examines the evolution of public rights of access to private land in England and Wales. Since the Eighteenth Century the administration and protection of these rights has been though a form of public/private partnership in which the judiciary, while maintaining the dominance of private property, have safeguarded de facto public access by refusing consistently to punish simple trespass. While this situation has been modified, principally by post-World War II legislation, to allow for some formalisation of access arrangements and consequent compensation to landowners in areas of high recreational pressure and low legal accessibility, recent policy initiatives suggest that the balance of the partnership has now shifted in favour of landowners. In particular, the new access payment schemes, developed by the UK Government in response to the European Commission's Agri-Environment Regulations, identify the landowner as the beneficiary of the partnership, financed by tax revenue and justified on the spurious basis of improved 'access provision'. As such the State, as the former upholder of citizen rights, now assumes the duplicitous position of underwriting private property ownership through the commodification of access, while proclaiming a significant improvement in citizens' access rights.