El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble

The modelled El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in 23 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs, including the recent IPCC AR4 models, are assessed and compared to observations and theory. The models show a clear improvement over previous generations in simulating the tropical Pacific climatology. Systematic biases still include too strong mean and seasonal cycle of trade winds. El Nino amplitude is shown to be an inverse function of the mean trade winds in agreement with the observed shift of 1976 and with theoretical studies. El Nino amplitude is further shown to be an inverse function of the relative strength of the seasonal cycle. When most of the energy is within the seasonal cycle, little is left for inter-annual signals and vice versa. An interannual coupling strength (ICS) is defined and its relation with the modelled El Nino frequency is compared to that predicted by theoretical models. An assessment of the modelled El Nino in term of SST mode (S-mode) or thermocline mode (T-mode) shows that most models are locked into a S-mode and that only a few models exhibit a hybrid mode, like in observations. It is concluded that several basic El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle relationships proposed by either theory or analysis of observations seem to be reproduced by CGCMs. This is especially true for the amplitude of El Nino and is less clear for its frequency. Most of these relationships, first established for the pre-industrial control simulations, hold for the double and quadruple CO2 stabilized scenarios. The models that exhibit the largest El Nino amplitude change in these greenhouse gas (GHG) increase scenarios are those that exhibit a mode change towards a T-mode (either from S-mode to hybrid or hybrid to T-mode). This follows the observed 1976 climate shift in the tropical Pacific, and supports the-still debated-finding of studies that associated this shift to increased GHGs. In many respects, these models are also among those that best simulate the tropical Pacific climatology (ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MRI-CGM2.3.2, UKMO-HadCM3). Results from this large subset of models suggest the likelihood of increased El Nino amplitude in a warmer climate, though there is considerable spread of El Nino behaviour among the models and the changes in the subsurface thermocline properties that may be important for El Nino change could not be assessed. There are no clear indications of an El Nino frequency change with increased GHG.

Effects of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation

The effect of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation is studied using an empirical flux model. The model produces fluctuating fluxes resulting from atmospheric variability and includes oceanic feedbacks on the fluxes. Numerical experiments were carried out by driving an ocean general circulation model with three different versions of the empirical model. It is found that fluctuating daily fluxes lead to an increase in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic of about 1 Sv and a decrease in the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) of about 32 Sv. The changes are approximately 7% of the MOC and 16% of the ACC obtained without fluctuating daily fluxes. The fluctuating fluxes change the intensity and the depth of vertical mixing. This, in turn, changes the density field and thus the circulation. Fluctuating buoyancy fluxes change the vertical mixing in a non-linear way: they tend to increase the convective mixing in mostly stable regions and to decrease the convective mixing in mostly unstable regions. The ACC changes are related to the enhanced mixing in the subtropical and the mid-latitude Southern Ocean and reduced mixing in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. The enhanced mixing is related to an increase in the frequency and the depth of convective events. As these events bring more dense water downward, the mixing changes lead to a reduction in meridional gradient of the depth-integrated density in the Southern Ocean and hence the strength of the ACC. The MOC changes are related to more subtle density changes. It is found that the vertical mixing in a latitudinal strip in the northern North Atlantic is more strongly enhanced due to fluctuating fluxes than the mixing in a latitudinal strip in the South Atlantic. This leads to an increase in the density difference between the two strips, which can be responsible for the increase in the Atlantic MOC.

Harmonic force fields from scaled SCF calculations: Program ASYM40

We report an extended version of our normal coordinate program ASYM40, which may be used to transform Cartesian force constants from ab initio calculations to a force field in nonredundant internal (symmetry) coordinates. When experimental data are available, scale factors for the theoretical force field may then be optimized by least-squares refinement. The alternative of refining an empirical force field to fit a wide variety of data, as with the previous version ASYM20, has been retained. We compare the results of least-squares refinement of the full harmonic force field with least-squares refinement of only the scale factors for an SCF calculated force field and conclude that the latter approach may be useful for large molecules where more sophisticated calculations are impractical. The refinement of scale factors for a theoretical force field is also useful when there are only limited spectroscopic data. The program will accept ab initio calculated force fields from any program that presents Cartesian force constants as output. The program is available through Quantum Chemistry Program Exchange.

Analytical potentials for triatomic molecules IX. The prediction of anharmonic force constants from potential energy surfaces based on harmonic force fields and dissociation energies for SO2 and O3

Analytical potential energy functions which are valid at all dissociation limits have been derived for the ground states of SO2 and O3. The procedure involves minimizing the errors between the observed vibrational spectra and spectra calculated by a variational procedure. Good agreement is obtained between the observed and calculated spectra for both molecules. Comparisons are made between anharmonic force fields, previously determined from the spectral data, and the force fields obtained by differentiating the derived analytical functions at the equilibrium configurations.

Microwave spectrum of CHD2CN and CHD2NC, and the harmonic force field and rz structure of methyl cyanide and isocyanide

The microwave spectra of CHD2CN and CHD2NC have been measured from 18 to 40 GHz; about 20 type A and 30 type C transitions have been observed for each molecule. These have been fitted to a Hamiltonian using 3 rotational constants, and 5 quartic and 4 sextic distortion constants, in the IrS reduction of Watson [in “Vibrational spectra and structure” Vol. 6 (1977)]; the standard error of the fit is 26 kHz. For methyl cyanide the 5 quartic distortion constants have been used to further refine the recent harmonic force field of Duncan et al. [J. Mol. Spectrosc. 69, 123 (1978)], but the changes are small. Finally, for both molecules, the harmonic force field has been used to determine zero point average moments of inertia Iz from the ground state rotational constants for many isotopic species, and these have been used to determine an rz structure. The results are compared with rs structure calculations.

Redundant coordinates in harmonic force-field calculations

Redundancy relations between vibrational coordinates may be linear (as for rectilinear coordinates used in deriving a G matrix), or non-linear (as for curvilinear coordinates used in formulating model force fields). It is shown that geometrically defined internal coordinates are necessarily curvilinear. Hence it is shown that linear force constants can occur in model force field calculations involving redundant coordinates, in disagreement with the recent proposal of Gussoni and Zerbi.

HMS - Harmonic Motion by Shadows

A problem is discussed which is generated by shadows and which is a generalization of simple harmonic motion.

Vibration-rotation spectra and the harmonic force field of HOCl

Vibration-rotation spectra of HOCl have been measured at a resolution of 0.05 cm−1 to determine vibration rotation constants, and 35–37 Cl isotope shifts in the vibration frequencies. The spectrum of DOCl has also been recorded, and a preliminary analysis for the band origins has been made. The vibrational frequency data and centrifugal distortion constants have been used to determine the harmonic force field in a least-squares refinement; the force field obtained also gives a good fit to data on the vibrational contributions to the inertial defect. The equilibrium rotational constants of HOCl have been obtained, and an equilibrium structure has been estimated.

Nitrous acid: vibrational frequency shifts due to 15N substitution, and the harmonic force field

Vibration rotation spectra of HO15 NO and DO15 NO have been measured at a resolution of 0•04 cm-1 to determine the isotopic shifts in the vibrational band origins. These have been used together with recently determined data on the vibrational band origins, Coriolis constants, and centrifugal distorition constants, to determine the harmonic force field of both cis and trans nitrous acid in least squares refinement calculations. The results are discussed in relation to recent ab initio calculations, the inertia defects, and the torsional potential function.

The harmonic force field and rz structure of HNCO

The presently available microwave, millimeter wave, and far-infrared data of five isotopic species of isocyanic acid, namely, HNCO, H15NCO, HN13CO, HNC18O, and DNCO, have been used to obtain improved values of the ground-state rotational constants, the five quartic distortion constants, and some higher-order distortion constants in the Ir S reduced Hamiltonian of Watson. The appropriate planarity relation among the quartic centrifugal distortion constants has been imposed in the fitting procedure. The general harmonic force field of isocyanic acid has been determined using all existing data, and assuming a trans bent equilibrium geometry of the molecule with an NCO angle of 170°. Finally an rz structure has been obtained using the Az, Bz, and Cz rotational constants of five isotopic species. The bending of the NCO chain is found to be 8° in the trans configuration.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

The infrared spectrum, equilibrium structure and harmonic and anharmonic force field of thioborine, HBS

Infrared spectra of the two stretching fundamentals of both HBS and DBS have been observed, using a continuous flow system through a multiple reflection long path cell at a pressure around 1 Torr and a Nicolet Fourier Transform spectrometer with a resolution of about 0•1 cm-1. The v3 BS stretching fundamental of DBS, near 1140 cm-1, is observed in strong Fermi resonance with the overtone of the bend 2v2. The bending fundamental v2 has not been observed and must be a very weak band. The analysis of the results in conjunction with earlier work gives the equilibrium structure (re(BH) = 1•1698(12) , re(BS) = 1•5978(3) ) and the harmonic and anharmonic force field.