A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

Toxicity testing of groundwater quality

Groundwater is an important resource in the UK, with 45% of public water supplies in the Thames Water region derived from subterranean sources. In urban areas, groundwater has been affected by onthropogenic activities over 0 long period of time and from a multitude of sources, At present, groundwater quality is assessed using a range of chemical species to determine the extent of contamination. However, analysing a complex mixture of chemicals is time-consuming and expensive, whereas the use of an ecotoxicity test provides information on (a) the degree of pollution present in the groundwater and (b) the potential effect of that pollution. Microtox (TM), Eclox (TM) and Daphnia magna microtests were used in conjunction with standard chemical protocols to assess the contamination of groundwaters from sites throughout the London Borough of Hounslow and nearby Heathrow Airport. Because of their precision, range of responses and ease of use, Daphnia magna and Microfox (TM) tests are the bioassays that appear to be most effective for assessing groundwater toxicity However, neither test is ideal because it is also essential to monitor water hardness. Eclox (TM) does not appear to be suitable for use in groundwater-quality assessment in this area, because it is adversely affected by high total dissolved solids and electrical conductivity.

Haem peroxidase activity in Daphnia magna: A biomarker for sub-lethal toxicity assessments of kerosene-contaminated groundwater

A novel biomarker was developed in Daphnia magna to detect organic pollution in groundwater. The haem peroxidase assay, which is an indirect means of measuring oxidase activity, was particularly sensitive to kerosene contamination. Exposure to sub-lethal concentrations of kerosene-contaminated groundwater resulted in a haem peroxidase activity increase by dose with a two-fold activity peak at 25%. Reproduction in D. magna remained unimpaired when exposed to concentrations below 25% for 21 days, and a decline in fecundity was only observed at concentrations above the peak in enzyme activity. The measurement of haem peroxidase activity in D. magna detected sublethal effects of kerosene in just 24 h, whilst offering information on the health status of the organisms. The biomarker may be useful in determining concentrations above which detrimental effects would occur from long-term exposure for fuel hydrocarbons. Moreover, this novel assay detects exposure to chemicals in samples that would normally be classified as non-toxic by acute toxicity tests.

Multivariate relationships between groundwater chemistry and toxicity in an urban aquifer

Multivariate statistical methods were used to investigate file Causes of toxicity and controls on groundwater chemistry from 274 boreholes in an Urban area (London) of the United Kingdom. The groundwater was alkaline to neutral, and chemistry was dominated by calcium, sodium, and Sulfate. Contaminants included fuels, solvents, and organic compounds derived from landfill material. The presence of organic material in the aquifer caused decreases in dissolved oxygen, sulfate and nitrate concentrations. and increases in ferrous iron and ammoniacal nitrogen concentrations. Pearson correlations between toxicity results and the concentration of individual analytes indicated that concentrations of ammoinacal nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, ferrous iron, and hydrocarbons were important where present. However, principal component and regression analysis suggested no significant correlation between toxicity and chemistry over the whole area. Multidimensional Scaling was used to investigate differences in sites caused by historical use, landfill gas status, or position within the sample area. Significant differences were observed between sites with different historical land use and those with different gas status. Examination of the principal component matrix revealed that these differences are related to changes in the importance of reduced chemical species.

Is there a relationship between soil and groundwater toxicity?

Part IIA of the Environmental Protection Act 1990 requires environmental regulators to assess the risk of contaminants leaching from soils into groundwater (DETR, 1999). This newly introduced legislation assumes a link between soil and groundwater chemistry, in which rainwater leaches contaminants from soil into the saturated zone. As the toxicity of both groundwater and overlying soils is dependent upon the chemicals present, their partitioning and their bioavailability, similar patterns of soil, leachates and groundwater toxicity should be observed at contaminated sites. Soil and groundwater samples were collected from different contaminated land sites in an urban area, and used to determine relationships between soil chemistry and toxicity, mobility of contaminants, and groundwater chemistry and toxicity. Soils were leached using water to mimic rainfall, and both the soils and leachates tested using bioassays. Soil bioassays were carried out using Eisenia fetida, whilst groundwater and leachates were tested using the Microtox(TM) test system and Daphnia magna 48 h acute tests. Analysis of the bioassay responses demonstrated that a number of the samples were toxic to test organisms, however, there were no significant statistical relationships between soil, groundwater and leachate toxicity. Nor were there significant correlations between soil, leachates and groundwater chemistry.