The REFLEX project: Comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data

We describe a model-data fusion (MDF) inter-comparison project (REFLEX), which compared various algorithms for estimating carbon (C) model parameters consistent with both measured carbon fluxes and states and a simple C model. Participants were provided with the model and with both synthetic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and leaf area index (LAI) data, generated from the model with added noise, and observed NEE and LAI data from two eddy covariance sites. Participants endeavoured to estimate model parameters and states consistent with the model for all cases over the two years for which data were provided, and generate predictions for one additional year without observations. Nine participants contributed results using Metropolis algorithms, Kalman filters and a genetic algorithm. For the synthetic data case, parameter estimates compared well with the true values. The results of the analyses indicated that parameters linked directly to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, such as those related to foliage allocation and turnover, or temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration, were best constrained and characterised. Poorly estimated parameters were those related to the allocation to and turnover of fine root/wood pools. Estimates of confidence intervals varied among algorithms, but several algorithms successfully located the true values of annual fluxes from synthetic experiments within relatively narrow 90% confidence intervals, achieving >80% success rate and mean NEE confidence intervals <110 gC m−2 year−1 for the synthetic case. Annual C flux estimates generated by participants generally agreed with gap-filling approaches using half-hourly data. The estimation of ecosystem respiration and GPP through MDF agreed well with outputs from partitioning studies using half-hourly data. Confidence limits on annual NEE increased by an average of 88% in the prediction year compared to the previous year, when data were available. Confidence intervals on annual NEE increased by 30% when observed data were used instead of synthetic data, reflecting and quantifying the addition of model error. Finally, our analyses indicated that incorporating additional constraints, using data on C pools (wood, soil and fine roots) would help to reduce uncertainties for model parameters poorly served by eddy covariance data.

Synergetic effect of carbon nanopore size and surface oxidation on CO2 capture from CO2/CH4 mixtures

We have studied the synergetic effect of confinement (carbon nanopore size) and surface chemistry (the number of carbonyl groups) on CO2 capture from its mixtures with CH4 at typical operating conditions for industrial adsorptive separation (298 K and compressed CO2CH4 mixtures). Although both confinement and surface oxidation have an impact on the efficiency of CO2/CH4 adsorptive separation at thermodynamics equilibrium, we show that surface functionalization is the most important factor in designing an efficient adsorbent for CO2 capture. Systematic Monte Carlo simulations revealed that adsorption of CH4 either pure or mixed with CO2 on oxidized nanoporous carbons is only slightly increased by the presence of functional groups (surface dipoles). In contrast, adsorption of CO2 is very sensitive to the number of carbonyl groups, which can be examined by a strong electric quadrupolar moment of CO2. Interestingly, the adsorbed amount of CH4 is strongly affected by the presence of the co-adsorbed CO2. In contrast, the CO2 uptake does not depend on the molar ratio of CH4 in the bulk mixture. The optimal carbonaceous porous adsorbent used for CO2 capture near ambient conditions should consist of narrow carbon nanopores with oxidized pore walls. Furthermore, the equilibrium separation factor was the greatest for CO2/CH4 mixtures with a low CO2 concentration. The maximum equilibrium separation factor of CO2 over CH4 of ∼18–20 is theoretically predicted for strongly oxidized nanoporous carbons. Our findings call for a review of the standard uncharged model of carbonaceous materials used for the modeling of the adsorption separation processes of gas mixtures containing CO2 (and other molecules with strong electric quadrupolar moment or dipole moment).

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Evidence of a universal scaling relationship for leaf CO2 drawdown along an aridity gradient

The leaf carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) of C3 plants is inversely related to the drawdown of CO2 concentration during photosynthesis, which increases towards drier environments. We aimed to discriminate between the hypothesis of universal scaling, which predicts between-species responses of δ13C to aridity similar to within-species responses, and biotic homoeostasis, which predicts offsets in the δ13C of species occupying adjacent ranges. The Northeast China Transect spans 130–900 mm annual precipitation within a narrow latitude and temperature range. Leaves of 171 species were sampled at 33 sites along the transect (18 at ≥ 5 sites) for dry matter, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content, specific leaf area (SLA) and δ13C. The δ13C of species generally followed a common relationship with the climatic moisture index (MI). Offsets between adjacent species were not observed. Trees and forbs diverged slightly at high MI. In C3 plants, δ13C predicted N per unit leaf area (Narea) better than MI. The δ13C of C4 plants was invariant with MI. SLA declined and Narea increased towards low MI in both C3 and C4 plants. The data are consistent with optimal stomatal regulation with respect to atmospheric dryness. They provide evidence for universal scaling of CO2 drawdown with aridity in C3 plants.

Systematic study of the impact of fresh water fluxes on the glacial carbon cycle

During glacial periods, atmospheric CO2 concentration increases and decreases by around 15 ppm. At the same time, the climate changes gradually in Antarctica. Such climate changes can be simulated in models when the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Oceanic Circulation) is weakened by adding fresh water to the North Atlantic. The impact on the carbon cycle is less straightforward, and previous studies give opposite results. Because the models and the fresh water fluxes were different in these studies, it prevents any direct comparison and hinders finding whether the discrepancies arise from using different models or different fresh water fluxes. In this study we use the CLIMBER-2 coupled climate carbon model to explore the impact of different fresh water fluxes. In both preindustrial and glacial states, the addition of fresh water and the resulting slow-down of the AMOC lead to an uptake of carbon by the ocean and a release by the terrestrial biosphere. The duration, shape and amplitude of the fresh water flux all have an impact on the change of atmospheric CO2 because they modulate the change of the AMOC. The maximum CO2 change linearly depends on the time integral of the AMOC change. The different duration, amplitude, and shape of the fresh water flux cannot explain the opposite evolution of ocean and vegetation carbon inventory in different models. The different CO2 evolution thus depends on the AMOC response to the addition of fresh water and the resulting climatic change, which are both model dependent. In CLIMBER-2, the rise of CO2 recorded in ice cores during abrupt events can be simulated under glacial conditions, especially when the sinking of brines in the Southern Ocean is taken into account. The addition of fresh water in the Southern Hemisphere leads to a decline of CO2, contrary to the addition of fresh water in the Northern Hemisphere.

Multi-season eddy covariance observations of energy, water and carbon fluxes over a suburban area in Swindon, UK

Eddy covariance measurements of the turbulent sensible heat, latent heat and carbon dioxide fluxes for 12 months (2011–2012) are reported for the first time for a suburban area in the UK. The results from Swindon are comparable to suburban studies of similar surface cover elsewhere but reveal large seasonal variability. Energy partitioning favours turbulent sensible heat during summer (midday Bowen ratio 1.4–1.6) and latent heat in winter (0.05–0.7). A significant proportion of energy is stored (and released) by the urban fabric and the estimated anthropogenic heat flux is small but non-negligible (0.5–0.9 MJ m−2 day−1). The sensible heat flux is negative at night and for much of winter daytimes, reflecting the suburban nature of the site (44% vegetation) and relatively low built fraction (16%). Latent heat fluxes appear to be water limited during a dry spring in both 2011 and 2012, when the response of the surface to moisture availability can be seen on a daily timescale. Energy and other factors are more relevant controls at other times; at night the wind speed is important. On average, surface conductance follows a smooth, asymmetrical diurnal course peaking at around 6–9 mm s−1, but values are larger and highly variable in wet conditions. The combination of natural (vegetative) and anthropogenic (emission) processes is most evident in the temporal variation of the carbon flux: significant photosynthetic uptake is seen during summer, whilst traffic and building emissions explain peak release in winter (9.5 g C m−2 day−1). The area is a net source of CO2 annually. Analysis by wind direction highlights the role of urban vegetation in promoting evapotranspiration and offsetting CO2 emissions, especially when contrasted against peak traffic emissions from sectors with more roads. Given the extent of suburban land use, these results have important implications for understanding urban energy, water and carbon dynamics.

Modelling of urban sensible heat flux at multiple spatial scales : a demonstration using airborne hyperspectral imagery of Shanghai and a temperature–emissivity separation approach

Urbanization related alterations to the surface energy balance impact urban warming (‘heat islands’), the growth of the boundary layer, and many other biophysical processes. Traditionally, in situ heat flux measures have been used to quantify such processes, but these typically represent only a small local-scale area within the heterogeneous urban environment. For this reason, remote sensing approaches are very attractive for elucidating more spatially representative information. Here we use hyperspectral imagery from a new airborne sensor, the Operative Modular Imaging Spectrometer (OMIS), along with a survey map and meteorological data, to derive the land cover information and surface parameters required to map spatial variations in turbulent sensible heat flux (QH). The results from two spatially-explicit flux retrieval methods which use contrasting approaches and, to a large degree, different input data are compared for a central urban area of Shanghai, China: (1) the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) and (2) an Aerodynamic Resistance Method (ARM). Sensible heat fluxes are determined at the full 6 m spatial resolution of the OMIS sensor, and at lower resolutions via pixel aggregation and spatial averaging. At the 6 m spatial resolution, the sensible heat flux of rooftop dominated pixels exceeds that of roads, water and vegetated areas, with values peaking at ∼ 350 W m− 2, whilst the storage heat flux is greatest for road dominated pixels (peaking at around 420 W m− 2). We investigate the use of both OMIS-derived land surface temperatures made using a Temperature–Emissivity Separation (TES) approach, and land surface temperatures estimated from air temperature measures. Sensible heat flux differences from the two approaches over the entire 2 × 2 km study area are less than 30 W m− 2, suggesting that methods employing either strategy maybe practica1 when operated using low spatial resolution (e.g. 1 km) data. Due to the differing methodologies, direct comparisons between results obtained with the LUMPS and ARM methods are most sensibly made at reduced spatial scales. At 30 m spatial resolution, both approaches produce similar results, with the smallest difference being less than 15 W m− 2 in mean QH averaged over the entire study area. This is encouraging given the differing architecture and data requirements of the LUMPS and ARM methods. Furthermore, in terms of mean study QH, the results obtained by averaging the original 6 m spatial resolution LUMPS-derived QH values to 30 and 90 m spatial resolution are within ∼ 5 W m− 2 of those derived from averaging the original surface parameter maps prior to input into LUMPS, suggesting that that use of much lower spatial resolution spaceborne imagery data, for example from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is likely to be a practical solution for heat flux determination in urban areas.

Effect of cattle urine addition on the surface emissions and subsurface concentrations of greenhouse gases in a UK peat grassland

Grazing systems represent a substantial percentage of the global anthropogenic flux of nitrous oxide (N2O) as a result of nitrogen addition to the soil. The pool of available carbon that is added to the soil from livestock excreta also provides substrate for the production of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) by soil microorganisms. A study into the production and emission of CO2, CH4 and N2O from cattle urine amended pasture was carried out on the Somerset Levels and Moors, UK over a three-month period. Urine-amended plots (50 g N m−2) were compared to control plots to which only water (12 mg N m−2) was applied. CO2 emission peaked at 5200 mg CO2 m−2 d−1 directly after application. CH4 flux decreased to −2000 μg CH4 m−2 d−1 two days after application; however, net CH4 flux was positive from urine treated plots and negative from control plots. N2O emission peaked at 88 mg N2O m−2 d−1 12 days after application. Subsurface CH4 and N2O concentrations were higher in the urine treated plots than the controls. There was no effect of treatment on subsurface CO2 concentrations. Subsurface N2O peaked at 500 ppm 12 days after and 1200 ppm 56 days after application. Subsurface NO3− concentration peaked at approximately 300 mg N kg dry soil−1 12 days after application. Results indicate that denitrification is the key driver for N2O release in peatlands and that this production is strongly related to rainfall events and water-table movement. N2O production at depth continued long after emissions were detected at the surface. Further understanding of the interaction between subsurface gas concentrations, surface emissions and soil hydrological conditions is required to successfully predict greenhouse gas production and emission.

Folding of graphene slit like pore walls—a simple method of improving CO2 separation from mixtures with CH4 or N2

We report for the first time a detailed procedure for creating a simulation model of energetically stable, folded graphene-like pores and simulation results of CO2/CH4 and CO2/N2 separation using these structures. We show that folding of graphene structures is a very promising method to improve the separation of CO2 from mixtures with CH4 and N2. The separation properties of the analyzed materials are compared with carbon nanotubes having similar diameters or S/V ratio. The presented results have potential importance in the field of CO2 capture and sequestration.

Open solar flux estimates from near-Earth measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field: comparison of the first two perihelion passes of the Ulysses spacecraft

Results from all phases of the orbits of the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the magnitude of the radial component of the heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude. This result allows the use of near- Earth observations to compute the total open flux of the Sun. For example, using satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, the average open solar flux was shown to have risen by 29% between 1963 and 1987 and using the aa geomagnetic index it was found to have doubled during the 20th century. It is therefore important to assess fully the accuracy of the result and to check that it applies to all phases of the solar cycle. The first perihelion pass of the Ulysses spacecraft was close to sunspot minimum, and recent data from the second perihelion pass show that the result also holds at solar maximum. The high level of correlation between the open flux derived from the various methods strongly supports the Ulysses discovery that the radial field component is independent of latitude. We show here that the errors introduced into open solar flux estimates by assuming that the heliospheric field’s radial component is independent of latitude are similar for the two passes and are of order 25% for daily values, falling to 5% for averaging timescales of 27 days or greater. We compare here the results of four methods for estimating the open solar flux with results from the first and second perehelion passes by Ulysses. We find that the errors are lowest (1–5% for averages over the entire perehelion passes lasting near 320 days), for near-Earth methods, based on either interplanetary magnetic field observations or the aa geomagnetic activity index. The corresponding errors for the Solanki et al. (2000) model are of the order of 9–15% and for the PFSS method, based on solar magnetograms, are of the order of 13–47%. The model of Solanki et al. is based on the continuity equation of open flux, and uses the sunspot number to quantify the rate of open flux emergence. It predicts that the average open solar flux has been decreasing since 1987, as Correspondence to: M. Lockwood (m.lockwood@rl.ac.uk) is observed in the variation of all the estimates of the open flux. This decline combines with the solar cycle variation to produce an open flux during the second (sunspot maximum) perihelion pass of Ulysses which is only slightly larger than that during the first (sunspot minimum) perihelion pass.

Effects of urban density on carbon dioxide exchanges: observations of dense urban, suburban and woodland areas of southern England

Anthropogenic and biogenic controls on the surface–atmosphere exchange of CO2 are explored for three different environments. Similarities are seen between suburban and woodland sites during summer, when photosynthesis and respiration determine the diurnal pattern of the CO2 flux. In winter, emissions from human activities dominate urban and suburban fluxes; building emissions increase during cold weather, while traffic is a major component of CO2 emissions all year round. Observed CO2 fluxes reflect diurnal traffic patterns (busy throughout the day (urban); rush-hour peaks (suburban)) and vary between working days and non-working days, except at the woodland site. Suburban vegetation offsets some anthropogenic emissions, but 24-h CO2 fluxes are usually positive even during summer. Observations are compared to estimated emissions from simple models and inventories. Annual CO2 exchanges are significantly different between sites, demonstrating the impacts of increasing urban density (and decreasing vegetation fraction) on the CO2 flux to the atmosphere.