ENSO at 6ka and 21ka from ocean–atmosphere coupled model simulations

We analyze how the characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are changed in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) performed as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2). Comparison of the model results with present day observations show that most of the models reproduce the large scale features of the tropical Pacific like the SST gradient, the mean SST and the mean seasonal cycles. All models simulate the ENSO variability, although with different skill. Our analyses show that several relationships between El Niño amplitude and the mean state across the different control simulations are still valid for simulations of the MH and the LGM. Results for the MH show a consistent El Niño amplitude decrease. It can be related to the large scale atmospheric circulation changes. While the Northern Hemisphere receives more insolation during the summer time, the Asian summer monsoon system is strengthened which leads to the enhancement of the Walker circulation. Easterlies prevailing over the central eastern Pacific induce an equatorial upwelling that damps the El Niño development. Results are less conclusive for 21ka. Large scale dynamic competes with changes in local heat fluxes, so that model shows a wide range of responses, as it is the case in future climate projections.

Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) (part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)) was an intense research effort to measure long-range transport of pollution across the North Atlantic and its impact on O3 production. During the aircraft campaign plumes were encountered containing large concentrations of CO plus other tracers and aerosols from forest fires in Alaska and Canada. A chemical transport model, p-TOMCAT, and new biomass burning emissions inventories are used to study the emissions long-range transport and their impact on the troposphere O3 budget. The fire plume structure is modeled well over long distances until it encounters convection over Europe. The CO values within the simulated plumes closely match aircraft measurements near North America and over the Atlantic and have good agreement with MOPITT CO data. O3 and NOx values were initially too great in the model plumes. However, by including additional vertical mixing of O3 above the fires, and using a lower NO2/CO emission ratio (0.008) for boreal fires, O3 concentrations are reduced closer to aircraft measurements, with NO2 closer to SCIAMACHY data. Too little PAN is produced within the simulated plumes, and our VOC scheme's simplicity may be another reason for O3 and NOx model-data discrepancies. In the p-TOMCAT simulations the fire emissions lead to increased tropospheric O3 over North America, the north Atlantic and western Europe from photochemical production and transport. The increased O3 over the Northern Hemisphere in the simulations reaches a peak in July 2004 in the range 2.0 to 6.2 Tg over a baseline of about 150 Tg.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Use of a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm in protein folding simulations

We have developed a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm (GA) for simulation of protein folding. The program (written in C) builds a set of Cartesian points to represent an unfolded polypeptide's backbone. The dihedral angles determining the chain's configuration are stored in an array of chromosome structures that is copied and then mutated. The fitness of the mutated chain's configuration is determined by its radius of gyration. A four-helix bundle was used to optimise simulation conditions, and the program was compared with other, larger, genetic algorithms on a variety of structures. The program ran 50% faster than other GA programs. Overall, tests on 100 non-redundant structures gave comparable results to other genetic algorithms, with the Hill-climbing program running from between 20 and 50% faster. Examples including crambin, cytochrome c, cytochrome B and hemerythrin gave good secondary structure fits with overall alpha carbon atom rms deviations of between 5 and 5.6 Angstrom with an optimised hydrophobic term in the fitness function. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Function of the hydration layer around an antifreeze protein revealed by atomistic molecular dynamics simulations

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the mechanism by which the antifreeze protein from the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, binds to ice. Comparison of structural and dynamic properties of the water around the three faces of the triangular prism-shaped protein in aqueous solution reveals that at low temperature the water structure is ordered and the dynamics slowed down around the ice-binding face of the protein, with a disordering effect observed around the other two faces. These results suggest a dual role for the solvation water around the protein. The preconfigured solvation shell around the ice-binding face is involved in the initial recognition and binding of the antifreeze protein to ice by lowering the barrier for binding and consolidation of the protein:ice interaction surface. Thus, the antifreeze protein can bind to the molecularly rough ice surface by becoming actively involved in the formation of its own binding site. Also, the disruption of water structure around the rest of the protein helps prevent the adsorbed protein becoming covered by further ice growth.

Building cluster and shading in urban canyon for hot dry climate Part 2: Shading simulations

Under low latitude conditions, minimisation of solar irradiance within the urban environment may often be an important criterion in urban design. This can be achieved when the obstruction angle is large (high H/W ratio, H = height, W = width). Solar access to streets can always be decreased by increasing H/W to larger values. It is shown in this paper that the street canyon orientation (and not only the H/W ratio) has a considerable effect on solar shading and urban microclimate. The paper demonstrates through a series of shading simulation and temperature measurements that a number of useful relationships can be developed between the geometry and the microclimate of urban street canyons. These relationships are potentially helpful to assist in the formulation of urban design guidelines governing street dimensions and orientations for use by urban designers.

Modelling oil absorption during post-frying cooling - II: solution of the mathematical model, model testing and simulations

The mathematical models that describe the immersion-frying period and the post-frying cooling period of an infinite slab or an infinite cylinder were solved and tested. Results were successfully compared with those found in the literature or obtained experimentally, and were discussed in terms of the hypotheses and simplifications made. The models were used as the basis of a sensitivity analysis. Simulations showed that a decrease in slab thickness and core heat capacity resulted in faster crust development. On the other hand, an increase in oil temperature and boiling heat transfer coefficient between the oil and the surface of the food accelerated crust formation. The model for oil absorption during cooling was analysed using the tested post-frying cooling equation to determine the moment in which a positive pressure driving force, allowing oil suction within the pore, originated. It was found that as crust layer thickness, pore radius and ambient temperature decreased so did the time needed to start the absorption. On the other hand, as the effective convective heat transfer coefficient between the air and the surface of the slab increased the required cooling time decreased. In addition, it was found that the time needed to allow oil absorption during cooling was extremely sensitive to pore radius, indicating the importance of an accurate pore size determination in future studies.

The eMinerals project: developing the concept of the virtual organisation to support collaborative work on molecular-scale environmental simulations

The eMinerals project has established an integrated compute and data minigrid infrastructure together with a set of collaborative tools,. The infrastructure is designed to support molecular simulation scientists working together as a virtual organisation aiming to understand a number of strategic processes in environmental science. The eMinerals virtual organisation is now working towards applying this infrastructure to tackle a new generation of scientific problems. This paper describes the achievements of the eMinerals virtual organisation to date, and describes ongoing applications of the virtual organisation infrastructure.

MPJ express meets gadget: towards a java code for cosmological simulations

Gadget-2 is a massively parallel structure formation code for cosmological simulations. In this paper, we present a Java version of Gadget-2. We evaluated the performance of the Java version by running colliding galaxies simulation and found that it can achieve around 70% of C Gadget-2's performance.

Collaborative grid infrastructure for molecular simulations: The eMinerals minigrid as a prototype integrated computer and data grid

This paper describes a prototype grid infrastructure, called the eMinerals minigrid, for molecular simulation scientists. which is based on an integration of shared compute and data resources. We describe the key components, namely the use of Condor pools, Linux/Unix clusters with PBS and IBM's LoadLeveller job handling tools, the use of Globus for security handling, the use of Condor-G tools for wrapping globus job submit commands, Condor's DAGman tool for handling workflow, the Storage Resource Broker for handling data, and the CCLRC dataportal and associated tools for both archiving data with metadata and making data available to other workers.