Integrating spatial dependence into stochastic frontier analysis

An approach to incorporate spatial dependence into stochastic frontier analysis is developed and applied to a sample of 215 dairy farms in England and Wales. A number of alternative specifications for the spatial weight matrix are used to analyse the effect of these on the estimation of spatial dependence. Estimation is conducted using a Bayesian approach and results indicate that spatial dependence is present when explaining technical inefficiency.

Path dependence and Britain’s "coal wagon problem"

This article explores the nature and impact of path dependence in British rail coal haulage before 1939. It examines the factors which locked Britain's railways into a system of small coal wagons with highly fragmented ownership, the cost penalties of this system, and the reasons that attempts at modernization were unsuccessful. The analysis highlights the importance of decentralized ownership of a highly durable installed base of complementary infrastructure. Technical and institutional interrelatedness blocked incremental modernization, while the political requirement to compensate private wagon owners for the loss of their wagon stock made wholesale rationalization financially unattractive.

The dependence of contrail formation on the weather pattern and altitude in the North Atlantic

Aircraft flying through cold ice-supersaturated air produce persistent contrails which contribute to the climate impact of aviation. Here, we demonstrate the importance of the weather situation, together with the route and altitude of the aircraft through this, on estimating contrail coverage. The results have implications for determining the climate impact of contrails as well as potential mitigation strategies. Twenty-one years of re-analysis data are used to produce a climatological assessment of conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation between 200 and 300 hPa over the north Atlantic in winter. The seasonal-mean frequency of cold ice-supersaturated regions is highest near 300 hPa, and decreases with altitude. The frequency of occurrence of ice-supersaturated regions varies with large-scale weather pattern; the most common locations are over Greenland, on the southern side of the jet stream and around the northern edge of high pressure ridges. Assuming aircraft take a great circle route, as opposed to a more realistic time-optimal route, is likely to lead to an error in the estimated contrail coverage, which can exceed 50% for westbound north Atlantic flights. The probability of contrail formation can increase or decrease with height, depending on the weather pattern, indicating that the generic suggestion that flying higher leads to fewer contrails is not robust.

Contact angle of a hemispherical bubble: an analytical approach

We have calculated the equilibrium shape of the axially symmetric Plateau border along which a spherical bubble contacts a flat wall, by analytically integrating Laplace’s equation in the presence of gravity, in the limit of small Plateau border sizes. This method has the advantage that it provides closed-form expressions for the positions and orientations of the Plateau border surfaces. Results are in very good overall agreement with those obtained from a numerical solution procedure, and are consistent with experimental data. In particular we find that the effect of gravity on Plateau border shape is relatively small for typical bubble sizes, leading to a widening of the Plateau border for sessile bubbles and to a narrowing for pendant bubbles. The contact angle of the bubble is found to depend even more weakly on gravity.

Chercher pour or chercher après: arguing the case for contact-induced linguistic innovation in different varieties of French

This paper provides evidence for the claim made in Baetens Beardsmore (1971) that the grammatical collocation "chercher après" «to look for», which is very frequent in Brussels French, is the result of transfer from the contact language, Brussels Dutch. A detailed quantitative analysis of this construction in different varieties of French which have more or less contact with a Germanic language was made to investigate the likelihood of influence from the Germanic substrate. The differences between the meaning of "chercher" and "chercher après" are also analysed in some depth, to find out whether or not the particle is redundant. According to Trudgill (2004) redundant constructions are more often found in contact situations involving long-term, stable contact and child bilingualism. The particle "après" was found to add a particular shade of meaning to "chercher", and is thus not redundant. Therefore no evidence could be obtained from the current data for Trudgill’s (2004) claim.

Borrowing and shift-induced interference: contrasting patterns in French-Germanic contact in Brussels and Strasbourg

The main aim of the present article is to test hypotheses derived from the model for contact- induced language change as formulated in Thomason and Kaufman (1988 et seq.). As the model correctly predicts the asymmetries between the mutual influences of the Germanic and the Romance varieties in Brussels and Strasbourg it is a very powerful tool for describing the contact patterns in these cities. The analysis shows that the contact patterns are very similar, both from a quantitative and from a qualitative point of view, despite important differences in the sociolinguistic situation of both cities. The striking similarities in the outcome of language contact seem to find a plausible explanation in the fact that the language contact situations in both cities are similar from a typological point of view: in each city a variety of French is in contact with a Germanic variety (Alsatian and Brussels Dutch). Thus, the claim of the present article is that the structure of the languages plays a more prominent role in the outcome of language contact than the sociolinguistic history of the speakers.

The role of transfer in language variation and change: Evidence from contact varieties of French

In this Special Issue, the focus is on contact-induced language variation and change in situations of societal bilingualism that involve long-term contact between French and another language. As is well known, when two or more languages are spoken by groups of speakers in the same geographical area, over time, features from one language can be transferred to the other language, especially when the languages in question are unequal in terms of prestige, institutional support and demographic factors. The process that leads to the adoption of such features in the contact languages is generally known as INTERFERENCE or TRANSFER, and these terms are also used to describe the features in question (i.e. the end product of the process of transfer). In this issue we prefer to use the term TRANSFER over the use of the notion INTERFERENCE, as the former has fewer negative connotations than the latter.

Effect of pH, temperature and surface contact on the elaboration of fimbriae and flagella by Salmonella serotype Enteritidis

Survival of enteric pathogens exposed to various environmental stresses depends upon a number of protective responses, some of which are associated with induction of virulence determinants. Flagella and fimbriae are putative virulence determinants of Salmonella spp, and ELISAs specific for the detection of flagella and SEF21, SEF14 and SEF17 fimbriae were used to assess the effect of temperature and pH upon their elaboration by isolates of Salmonella serotype Enteritidis in planktonic growth and on the surface of two-dimensional gradient agar plates, For three phage type 4 isolates of Enteritidis of comparative clinical provenance, similar phenotypes for the elaboration of these surface antigens were observed. SEF14 fimbriae were elaborated in planktonic growth at 37 degrees C, but not 20 degrees C, at pH 4.77 and above but not at pH 4.04; whereas on agar gradient plates SEF14 fimbriae were elaborated poorly but with best yields at pH 4.04, SEF17 fimbriae were elaborated in planktonic growth at 20 degrees C, but not at 37 degrees C, at pH 6.18 and above but not at pH 5.09 or below; whereas on agar gradient plates SEF17 fimbriae were elaborated well even at pH 4.65, SEF21 fimbriae were expressed very poorly under all conditions tested, Planktonic growth at 37 degrees C induced least flagella whereas growth at 20 degrees C, and particularly surface growth at lower pH values, induced a 'hyper-flagellate' phenotype, Single colonies allowed to form on gradient agar plates were shown to generate different colonial morphologies which were dependent on initial pH. These results demonstrate that the physicochemical environment is an important determinant of bacterial response, especially the induction of putative virulence factors.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

‘What Price Solidarity? Nuclear Dependence in NATO, 1949-1967’

Archive-based study of the dependence of NATO member states on the USA as nuclear guarantor, and the problems this entailed.

Estimating root–soil contact from 3D X-ray microtomographs

Adequate contact with the soil is essential for water and nutrient adsorption by plant roots, but the determination of root–soil contact is a challenging task because it is difficult to visualize roots in situ and quantify their interactions with the soil at the scale of micrometres. A method to determine root–soil contact using X-ray microtomography was developed. Contact areas were determined from 3D volumetric images using segmentation and iso-surface determination tools. The accuracy of the method was tested with physical model systems of contact between two objects (phantoms). Volumes, surface areas and contact areas calculated from the measured phantoms were compared with those estimated from image analysis. The volume was accurate to within 0.3%, the surface area to within 2–4%, and the contact area to within 2.5%. Maize and lupin roots were grown in soil (<2 mm) and vermiculite at matric potentials of −0.03 and −1.6 MPa and in aggregate fractions of 4–2, 2–1, 1–0.5 and < 0.5 mm at a matric potential of −0.03 MPa. The contact of the roots with their growth medium was determined from 3D volumetric images. Macroporosity (>70 µm) of the soil sieved to different aggregate fractions was calculated from binarized data. Root-soil contact was greater in soil than in vermiculite and increased with decreasing aggregate or particle size. The differences in root–soil contact could not be explained solely by the decrease in porosity with decreasing aggregate size but may also result from changes in particle and aggregate packing around the root.

The induction of mental and contact contamination

Background: Extreme fear of contamination within Obsessive Compulsive Disorder is traditionally conceptualised as a physical phenomenon. More recent research has supported the notion of ‘mental’ contamination, in which people feel contaminated in the absence of physical contact. The current research sought to determine whether feelings of contact and mental contamination could be induced within a non-clinical sample, whether the impact of mental and contact contamination was comparable in terms of associated feelings and behaviour and whether related psychopathology related to the impact of the tasks. Methods: Undergraduate students (n=60) completed OCD relevant measures and were randomly assigned to either a contact contamination condition (CC: moving a bucket of fake vomit) or a mental contamination condition (MC: thinking about a bucket of vomit). Results: Both manipulations induced feelings of contamination. Participants in the contact condition had significantly greater urges to wash than those in the mental condition. Neutralising behaviour did not differ across conditions. Conclusions: Feelings of contamination can be induced in the absence of physical contact and for those in the MC group, some aspects of OCD-relevant psychopathology were related to the impact of the manipulation. These findings have implications for the understanding and treatment of contamination-related fears in OCD.

Dependence of winter precipitation over Portugal on NAO and baroclinic wave activity

The relationship between winter (DJF) rainfall over Portugal and the variable large scale circulation is addressed. It is shown that the poles of the sea level pressure (SLP) field variability associated with rainfall variability are shifted about 15° northward with respect to those used in standard definitions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It is suggested that the influence of NAO on rainfall dominantly arises from the associated advection of humidity from the Atlantic Ocean. Rainfall is also related to different aspects of baroclinic wave activity, the variability of the latter quantity in turn being largely dependent on the NAO. A negative NAO index (leading to increased westerly surface geostrophic winds into Portugal) is associated with an increased number of deep (ps<980 hPa) surface lows over the central North Atlantic and of intermediate (980

The dependence of southern ocean meridional overturning on wind stress

An eddy-resolving numerical model of a zonal flow, meant to resemble the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is described and analyzed using the framework of J. Marshall and T. Radko. In addition to wind and buoyancy forcing at the surface, the model contains a sponge layer at the northern boundary that permits a residual meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to exist at depth. The strength of the residual MOC is diagnosed for different strengths of surface wind stress. It is found that the eddy circulation largely compensates for the changes in Ekman circulation. The extent of the compensation and thus the sensitivity of the MOC to the winds depend on the surface boundary condition. A fixed-heat-flux surface boundary severely limits the ability of the MOC to change. An interactive heat flux leads to greater sensitivity. To explain the MOC sensitivity to the wind strength under the interactive heat flux, transformed Eulerian-mean theory is applied, in which the eddy diffusivity plays a central role in determining the eddy response. A scaling theory for the eddy diffusivity, based on the mechanical energy balance, is developed and tested; the average magnitude of the diffusivity is found to be proportional to the square root of the wind stress. The MOC sensitivity to the winds based on this scaling is compared with the true sensitivity diagnosed from the experiments.