A constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptive combination of multiple models

In this paper, we develop a novel constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptively combining a set of given multiple models. With data available in an online fashion, the linear combination coefficients of submodels are adapted via the proposed algorithm.We propose to minimize the mean square error with a forgetting factor, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters. Moreover an l1-norm constraint to the combination parameters is also applied with the aim to achieve sparsity of multiple models so that only a subset of models may be selected into the final model. Then a weighted l2-norm is applied as an approximation to the l1-norm term. As such at each time step, a closed solution of the model combination parameters is available. The contribution of this paper is to derive the proposed constrained recursive least squares algorithm that is computational efficient by exploiting matrix theory. The effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated using both simulated and real time series examples.

Selection-mutation balance models with epistatic selection

We present an application of birth-and-death processes on configuration spaces to a generalized mutation4 selection balance model. The model describes the aging of population as a process of accumulation of mu5 tations in a genotype. A rigorous treatment demands that mutations correspond to points in abstract spaces. 6 Our model describes an infinite-population, infinite-sites model in continuum. The dynamical equation which 7 describes the system, is of Kimura-Maruyama type. The problem can be posed in terms of evolution of states 8 (differential equation) or, equivalently, represented in terms of Feynman-Kac formula. The questions of interest 9 are the existence of a solution, its asymptotic behavior, and properties of the limiting state. In the non-epistatic 10 case the problem was posed and solved in [Steinsaltz D., Evans S.N., Wachter K.W., Adv. Appl. Math., 2005, 11 35(1)]. In our model we consider a topological space X as the space of positions of mutations and the influence of epistatic potentials

Layer-by-layer electrostatic entrapment of protein molecules on superparamagnetic nanoparticle: new strategy to enhance adsorption capacity and maintain biological activity

There is a recent interest to use inorganic-based magnetic nanoparticles as a vehicle to carry biomolecules for various biophysical applications, but direct attachment of the molecules is known to alter their conformation leading to attenuation in activity. In addition, surface immobilization has been limited to monolayer coverage. It is shown that alternate depositions of negatively charged protein molecules, typically bovine serum albumin (BSA) with a positively charged aminocarbohydrate template such as glycol chitosan (GC) on magnetic iron oxide nanoparticle surface as a colloid, are carried out under pH 7.4. Circular dichroism (CD) clearly reveals that the secondary structure of the entrapped BSA sequential depositions in this manner remains totally unaltered which is in sharp contrast to previous attempts. Probing the binding properties of the entrapped BSA using small molecules (Site I and Site II drug compounds) confirms for the first time the full retention of its biological activity as compared with native BSA, which also implies the ready accessibility of the entrapped protein molecules through the porous overlayers. This work clearly suggests a new method to immobilize and store protein molecules beyond monolayer adsorption on a magnetic nanoparticle surface without much structural alteration. This may find applications in magnetic recoverable enzymes or protein delivery.

Why the western Pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to Asian climate. Previous examination of changes in the WPSH found a westward extension since the late 1970s, which has contributed to the inter-decadal transition of East Asian climate. The reason for the westward extension is unknown, however. The present study suggests that this significant change of WPSH is partly due to the atmosphere's response to the observed Indian Ocean-western Pacific (IWP) warming. Coordinated by a European Union's Sixth Framework Programme, Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (DYNAMITE), five AGCMs were forced by identical idealized sea surface temperature patterns representative of the IWP warming and cooling. The results of these numerical experiments suggest that the negative heating in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and increased convective heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean/ Maritime Continent associated with IWP warming are in favor of the westward extension of WPSH. The SST changes in IWP influences the Walker circulation, with a subsequent reduction of convections in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, which then forces an ENSO/Gill-type response that modulates the WPSH. The monsoon diabatic heating mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins plays a secondary reinforcing role in the westward extension of WPSH. The low-level equatorial flank of WPSH is interpreted as a Kelvin response to monsoon condensational heating, while the intensified poleward flow along the western flank of WPSH is in accord with Sverdrup vorticity balance. The IWP warming has led to an expansion of the South Asian high in the upper troposphere, as seen in the reanalysis.

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

ENSO at 6ka and 21ka from ocean–atmosphere coupled model simulations

We analyze how the characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are changed in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) performed as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2). Comparison of the model results with present day observations show that most of the models reproduce the large scale features of the tropical Pacific like the SST gradient, the mean SST and the mean seasonal cycles. All models simulate the ENSO variability, although with different skill. Our analyses show that several relationships between El Niño amplitude and the mean state across the different control simulations are still valid for simulations of the MH and the LGM. Results for the MH show a consistent El Niño amplitude decrease. It can be related to the large scale atmospheric circulation changes. While the Northern Hemisphere receives more insolation during the summer time, the Asian summer monsoon system is strengthened which leads to the enhancement of the Walker circulation. Easterlies prevailing over the central eastern Pacific induce an equatorial upwelling that damps the El Niño development. Results are less conclusive for 21ka. Large scale dynamic competes with changes in local heat fluxes, so that model shows a wide range of responses, as it is the case in future climate projections.

Sequence-selective assembly of tweezer-molecules on linear templates enables frameshift-reading of sequence information

Monomer-sequence information in synthetic copolyimides can be recognised by tweezer-type molecules binding to adjacent triplet-sequences on the polymer chains. In the present paper different tweezer-molecules are found to have different sequence-selectivities, as demonstrated in solution by 1H NMR spectroscopy and in the solid state by single crystal X-ray analyses of tweezer-complexes with linear and macrocyclic oligo-imides. This work provides clear-cut confirmation of polyimide chain-folding and adjacent-tweezer-binding. It also reveals a new and entirely unexpected mechanism for sequence-recognition which, by analogy with a related process in biomolecular information processing, may be termed "frameshift-reading". The ability of one particular tweezer-molecule to detect, with exceptionally high sensitivity, long-range sequence-information in chain-folding aromatic copolyimides, is readily explained by this novel process.

Bis(hydroxy-isoindolinone)s: synthesis, stereochemistry, polymer chemistry, and supramolecular assembly

Pseudoacid chlorides of 2,5-bis(4-fluorobenzoyl) terephthalic acid and 4,6-bis(4-fluorobenzoyl) isophthalic acid condense with primary amines to afford diastereomeric bis(hydroxyindolinone)s in good isolated yields and with diamines to give high molecular weight poly(hydroxyindolinone)s. Bis-N-pyrenemethyl bis(hydroxyindolinone)s assemble, even in dipolar solvents such as DMSO, with macrocyclic diimide-sulfones to give [3]pseudorotaxanes stabilized by electronically complementary aromatic π−π-stacking and shape-complementary van der Waals interactions.

Analysis of Pan-European attitudes to the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea

At present, national-level policies concerning the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) differ widely across Europe. Some Scandinavian countries have enacted strong regulatory frameworks to eradicate the disease, whereas other countries have few formal policies. To examine these differences, the attitudes of stakeholders and policy makers in 17 European countries were investigated. A web-based questionnaire was sent to policy makers, government and private sector veterinarians, and representatives of farmers' organisations. On total, 131 individuals responded to the questionnaire and their responses were analysed by applying a method used in sociolinguistics: frame analysis. The results showed that the different attitudes of countries that applied compulsory or voluntary frameworks were associated with different views about the attribution or blame for BVD and the roles ascribed to farmers and other stakeholders in its eradication and control.

Interference competition and high temperature reduce the ‘virulence’ of fig wasps and contribute to stability of a fig-wasp mutualism

Fig trees are pollinated by fig wasps, which also oviposit in female flowers. The wasp larvae gall and eat developing seeds. Although fig trees benefit from allowing wasps to oviposit, because the wasp offspring disperse pollen, figs must prevent wasps from ovipositing in all flowers, or seed production would cease, and the mutualism would go extinct. In Ficus racemosa, we find that syconia (‘figs’) that have few foundresses (ovipositing wasps) are underexploited in the summer (few seeds, few galls, many empty ovules) and are overexploited in the winter (few seeds, many galls, few empty ovules). Conversely, syconia with many foundresses produce intermediate numbers of galls and seeds, regardless of season. We use experiments to explain these patterns, and thus, to explain how this mutualism is maintained. In the hot summer, wasps suffer short lifespans and therefore fail to oviposit in many flowers. In contrast, cooler temperatures in the winter permit longer wasp lifespans, which in turn allows most flowers to be exploited by the wasps. However, even in winter, only in syconia that happen to have few foundresses are most flowers turned into galls. In syconia with higher numbers of foundresses, interference competition reduces foundress lifespans, which reduces the proportion of flowers that are galled. We further show that syconia encourage the entry of multiple foundresses by delaying ostiole closure. Taken together, these factors allow fig trees to reduce galling in the wasp-benign winter and boost galling (and pollination) in the wasp-stressing summer. Interference competition has been shown to reduce virulence in pathogenic bacteria. Our results show that interference also maintains cooperation in a classic, cooperative symbiosis, thus linking theories of virulence and mutualism. More generally, our results reveal how frequency-dependent population regulation can occur in the fig-wasp mutualism, and how a host species can ‘set the rules of the game’ to ensure mutualistic behavior in its symbionts.

Caf1A usher possesses a Caf1 subunit-like domain that is crucial for Caf1 fibre secretion

The chaperone/usher pathway controls assembly of fibres of adhesive organelles of Gram-negative bacteria. The final steps of fibre assembly and fibre translocation to the cell surface are co-ordinated by the outer membrane proteins, ushers. Ushers consist of several soluble periplasmic domains and a single transmembrane beta-barrel. Here we report isolation and structural/functional characterization of a novel middle domain of the Caf1A usher from Yersinia pestis. The isolated UMD (usher middle domain) is a highly soluble monomeric protein capable of autonomous folding. A 2.8 angstrom (1 angstrom = 0.1 nm) resolution crystal structure of UMD revealed that this domain has an immunoglobulin-like fold similar to that of donor-strand-complemented Caf1 fibre subunit. Moreover, these proteins displayed significant structural similarity. Although UMD is in the middle of the predicted amphipathic beta-barrel of Caf1A, the usher still assembled in the membrane in the absence of this domain. UMD did not bind Caf1M-Caf1 complexes, but its presence was shown to be essential for Caf1 fibre secretion. The study suggests that UMD may play the role of a subunit-substituting protein (dummy subunit), plugging or priming secretion through the channel in the Caf1A usher. Comparison of isolated UMD with the recent strcture of the corresponding domain of PapC usher revealed high similarity of the core structures, suggesting a universal structural adaptation of FGL (F(1)G(1) long) and FGS (F(1)G(1) short) chaperone/usher pathways for the secretion of different types of fibres. The functional role of two topologically different states of this plug domain suggested by structural and biochemical results is discussed.