Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

High temperature stress and spikelet fertility in rice (Oryza sativa L.)

In future climates, greater heat tolerance at anthesis will be required in rice. The effect of high temperature at anthesis on spikelet fertility was studied on IR64 (lowland indica) and Azucena (upland Japonica) at 29.6 degrees C (control), 33.7 degrees C, and 36.2 degrees C tissue temperatures. The objectives of the study were to: (i) determine the effect of temperature on flowering pattern; (ii) examine the effect of time of day of spikelet anthesis relative to a high temperature episode on spikelet fertility; and (iii) study the interactions between duration of exposure and temperature on spikelet fertility. Plants were grown at 30/24 degrees C day/night temperature in a greenhouse and transferred to growth cabinets for the temperature treatments. Individual spikelets were marked with paint to relate fertility to the time of exposure to different temperatures and durations. In both genotypes the pattern of flowering was similar, and peak anthesis occurred between 10.30 h and 11.30 h at 29.2 degrees C, and about 45 min earlier at 36.2 degrees C. In IR64, high temperature increased the number of spikelets reaching anthesis, whereas in Azucena numbers were reduced. In both genotypes :511 h exposure to >= 33.7 degrees C at anthesis caused sterility. In IR64, there was no interaction between temperature and duration of exposure, and spikelet fertility was reduced by about 7% per degrees C > 29.6 degrees C. In Azucena there was a significant interaction and spikelet fertility was reduced by 2.4% degrees Cd-1 above a threshold of 33 degrees C. Marking individual spikelets is an effective method to phenotype genotypes and lines for heat tolerance that removes any apparent tolerance due to temporal escape.

Phenotyping parents of mapping populations of rice for heat tolerance during anthesis

Seed set of rice (Oryza sativa L.) is highly sensitive to short episodes of high temperature at anthesis events that are likely to be more frequent in future climates. Breeding for tolerance is therefore an essential component of adaptation to climate variability and change. Experiments were conducted in 2003 and 2004 at optimum (30 degrees C daytime) and high (35 and 38 degrees C) air temperature using parents of some prominent mapping populations (i) to determine whether there were differences in the daily flowering pattern and hence a potential heat avoidance mechanism, and (ii) to identify rice genotypes having true heat tolerance during anthesis, that is, high seed set in spikelets exposed to high temperature. Rice cultivar CG14 (O. glaberrima) reached peak anthesis earlier in the morning (1.5 h after dawn) under both control (30 degrees C) and high (38 degrees C) temperature conditions than O. sativa genotypes (>= 3 h after dawn). Exposure to high temperature (centered on the time of peak anthesis) for 6 h reduced spikelet fertility more than exposure for 2 h, and fertility was lower at 38 degrees C than at 35 degrees C. Genotypic ranking for spikelet fertility at 35 and 38 degrees C was highly correlated in both 2003 and 2004. Fertility was also highly correlated across years, suggesting a consistent and reproducible response of spikelet fertility to temperature. The check cultivar N22 was the most heat tolerant genotype (64-86% fertility at 38 degrees C) and cultivars Azucena and Moroberekan the most susceptible (<8%).

Genotypic differences in the growth of bananas (Musa spp.) infected with migratory endoparasitic nematodes. 1. Roots

The effects of nematodes on root morphology and the association of root characteristics with resistance to nematodes of seven banana varieties were investigated in two experiments. Banana plants were grown in controlled conditions within polytunnels and harvested on three occasions for the measurement of root morpholopy, and biomass. Varieties differed in their resistance to nematodes, from resistant (Yg Km5, FHIA 17, FHIA 03) and partly resistant (FHIA 01, FHIA 25) to not resistant ((FHIA 23, Williams). Nematodes reduced the root dry weight of FHIA 01, FHIA 17 and FHIA 23 at some harvests. Primary root number was on average 9.5% lower in nematode-infected plants than controls, with no differences among the varieties. Thus, there was no simple association between the resistance of these varieties and their tolerance to nematodes. Varieties differed in root morphology. Root dry weight was greatest for resistant varieties Yg Km5 and FHIA 03, and least for non-resistant varieties FHIA 23 and Williams. Thus, resistance to nematodes was associated with varieties with greater root mass and more and larger primary roots.

Genotypic differences in the growth of bananas (Musa spp.) infected with migratory endoparasitic nematodes. 2. Shoots

In order to identify the effect of burrowing nematodes on the shoots (pseudostem and leaves) of banana plants and to determine whether or not shoot characteristics are associated with plant resistance to nematodes two experiments were conducted in controlled conditions within polytunnels. The banana plants were harvested on three occasions for the measurement of root morphology and biomass. Varieties differed in their resistance to nematodes from resistant (Yg Km5, FHIA 17, FHIA 03) and partly resistant (FHIA 01, FHIA 25) to not resistant (FHIA 23, Williams). Nematodes reduced total plant dry weight at the first harvest in Experiment 1 and by an average of 8.8% in Experiment 2, but did not affect leaf area in either experiment. The ratio of above-ground Weight to total plant weight was reduced from 75% to 72% in nematode-infected plants compared with the control plants for all varieties tested in Experiment 1, but was only reduced in FHIA 25 and FHIA 23 in Experiment 2. Varieties differed in above-ground growth. The FHIA varieties had greater shoot weights and leaf area than YgKm5 and Williams. Overall, resistance to nematodes was associated with the partitioning of a greater proportion of biomass to the roots than to above-ground parts.

Role of polyhydroxybutyrate and glycogen as carbon storage compounds in pea and bean bacteroids

Rhizobium leguminosarum synthesizes polyhydroxybutyrate and glycogen as its main carbon storage compounds. To examine the role of these compounds in bacteroid development and in symbiotic efficiency, single and double mutants of R. legumosarum bv. viciae were made which lack polyhydroxybutyrate synthase (phaC), glycogen synthase (glgA), or both. For comparison, a single phaC mutant also was isolated in a bean-nodulating strain of R. leguminosarum bv. phaseoli. In one large glasshouse trial, the growth of pea plants inoculated with the R. leguminosarum bv. viciae phaC mutant were significantly reduced compared with wild-type-inoculated plants. However, in subsequent glasshouse and growth-room studies, the growth of pea plants inoculated with the mutant were similar to wildtype-inoculated plants. Bean plants were unaffected by the loss of polyhydroxybutyrate biosynthesis in bacteroids. Pea plants nodulated by a glycogen synthase mutants or the glgA/phaC double mutant, grew as well as the wild type in growth-room experiments. Light and electron micrographs revealed that pea nodules infected with the glgA mutant accumulated large amounts of starch in the II/III interzone. This suggests that glycogen may be the dominant carbon storage compound in pea bacteroids. Polyhydroxybutyrate was present in bacteria in the infection thread of pea plants but was broken down during bacteroid formation. In nodules infected with a phaC mutant of R. leguminosarum bv. viciae, there was a drop in the amount of starch in the II/III interzone, where bacteroids form. Therefore, we propose a carbon burst hypothesis for bacteroid formation, where polyhydroxybutyrate accumulated by bacteria is degraded to fuel bacteroid differentiation.

Predicting the effects of nitrogen and planting density on maize water use in semi-arid Kenya

Models are important tools to assess the scope of management effects on crop productivity under different climatic and soil regimes. Accordingly, this study developed and used a simple model to assess the effects of nitrogen fertiliser and planting density on the water use efficiency (q) of maize in semi-arid Kenya. Field experiments were undertaken at Sonning, Berkshire, UK, in 1996 (one sowing) and 1997 (two sowings). The results from the field experiments plus soil and weather data for Machakos, Kenya (1 degree 33'S, 37 degree 14'E and 1560 m above sea level), were then used to predict the effects that N application and planting density may have on water use by a maize crop grown in semi-arid Kenya. The increase in q due to N application was greater under irrigated (15%-19%) than rainfed (7%-8%) conditions. Also, high planting density increased q (by 13%) under irrigation but decreased q (by 17%) under rainfed conditions. The current study has shown the significance of crop modelling techniques in assessing the influence of N and planting density on maize production in one region of semi-arid Kenya where there is high variability of rainfall.

Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model

It is well established that crop production is inherently vulnerable to variations in the weather and climate. More recently the influence of vegetation on the state of the atmosphere has been recognized. The seasonal growth of crops can influence the atmosphere and have local impacts on the weather, which in turn affects the rate of seasonal crop growth and development. Considering the coupled nature of the crop-climate system, and the fact that a significant proportion of land is devoted to the cultivation of crops, important interactions may be missed when studying crops and the climate system in isolation, particularly in the context of land use and climate change. To represent the two-way interactions between seasonal crop growth and atmospheric variability, we integrate a crop model developed specifically to operate at large spatial scales (General Large Area Model for annual crops) into the land surface component of a global climate model (GCM; HadAM3). In the new coupled crop-climate model, the simulated environment (atmosphere and soil states) influences growth and development of the crop, while simultaneously the temporal variations in crop leaf area and height across its growing season alter the characteristics of the land surface that are important determinants of surface fluxes of heat and moisture, as well as other aspects of the land-surface hydrological cycle. The coupled model realistically simulates the seasonal growth of a summer annual crop in response to the GCM's simulated weather and climate. The model also reproduces the observed relationship between seasonal rainfall and crop yield. The integration of a large-scale single crop model into a GCM, as described here, represents a first step towards the development of fully coupled crop and climate models. Future development priorities and challenges related to coupling crop and climate models are discussed.

Influence of vegetation on the local climate and hydrology in the tropics: sensitivity to soil parameters

Land use change with accompanying major modifications to the vegetation cover is widespread in the tropics, due to increasing demands for agricultural land, and may have significant impacts on the climate. This study investigates (1) the influence of vegetation on the local climate in the tropics; (2) how that influence varies from region to region; and (3) how the sensitivity of the local climate to vegetation, and hence land use change, depends on the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. A series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre atmospheric model, HadAM3, are described in which the influence of vegetation in the tropics is assessed by comparing the results of integrations with and without tropical vegetation. The sensitivity of the results to the soil characteristics is then explored by repeating the experiments with a differing, but equally valid, description of soil hydraulic parameters. The results have shown that vegetation has a significant moderating effect on the climate throughout the tropics by cooling the surface through enhanced latent heat fluxes. The influence of vegetation is, however, seasonally dependent, with much greater impacts during the dry season when the availability of surface moisture is limited. Furthermore, there are significant regional variations both in terms of the magnitude of the cooling and in the response of the precipitation. Not all regions show a feedback of vegetation on the local precipitation; this result has been related both to vegetation type and to the prevailing meteorological conditions. An important finding has been the sensitivity of the results to the specification of the soil hydraulic parameters. The introduction of more freely draining soils has changed the soil-moisture contents of the control, vegetated system and has reduced, significantly, the climate sensitivity to vegetation and by implication, land use change. Changes to the soil parameters have also had an impact on the soil hydrology and its interaction with vegetation, by altering the partitioning between fast and slow runoff processes. These results raise important questions about the representation of highly heterogeneous soil characteristics in climate models, as well as the potential influence of land use change on the soil characteristics themselves.

Effect of harvest date on the dormancy period of yam (Dioscorea rotundata)

Tuber dormancy enables yams to survive in the ground during the dry season and post-harvest storage. Three clones of Dioscorea rotundata were harvested after five intervals and then stored in a cooler (20.6°C) or at ambient temperature (27.8°C). The time from harvest to sprouting was shorter as harvest was delayed. The period from sowing to sprouting for each clone was similar for tubers harvested from 140 days after planting, but tubers harvested earlier took longer to sprout. The cooler temperature delayed sprouting. Tubers of two clones sprouted after only 70 days of crop growth. If the dormancy period of these young tubers can be broken, the generation time of yam crop improvement programmes could be considerably reduced.