Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Tropospheric ozone and winter wheat production in England and Wales: A note

Tropospheric ozone is an air pollutant thought to reduce crop yields across Europe. Much experimental scientific work has been completed or is currently underway to quantify yield effects at ambient ozone levels. In this research, we seek to directly evaluate whether such effects are observed at the farm level. This is done by intersecting a farm level panel dataset for winter wheat farms in England & Wales with information on ambient ozone, and estimating a production function with ozone as a fixed input. Panel data methods, Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) techniques and nested exogeneity tests are employed in the estimation. The results confirm a small, but nevertheless statistically significant negative effect of ambient ozone levels on wheat yields.

Statistical inferences in phylogeography

In conventional phylogeographic studies, historical demographic processes are elucidated from the geographical distribution of individuals represented on an inferred gene tree. However, the interpretation of gene trees in this context can be difficult as the same demographic/geographical process can randomly lead to multiple different genealogies. Likewise, the same gene trees can arise under different demographic models. This problem has led to the emergence of many statistical methods for making phylogeographic inferences. A popular phylogeographic approach based on nested clade analysis is challenged by the fact that a certain amount of the interpretation of the data is left to the subjective choices of the user, and it has been argued that the method performs poorly in simulation studies. More rigorous statistical methods based on coalescence theory have been developed. However, these methods may also be challenged by computational problems or poor model choice. In this review, we will describe the development of statistical methods in phylogeographic analysis, and discuss some of the challenges facing these methods.

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results: Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion: The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

Amino acid pairing preferences in parallel beta-sheets in proteins

Statistical approaches have been applied to examine amino acid pairing preferences within parallel beta-sheets. The main chain hydrogen bonding pattern in parallel beta-sheets means that, for each residue pair, only one of the residues is involved in main chain hydrogen bonding with the strand containing the partner residue. We call this the hydrogen bonded (HB) residue and the partner residue the non-hydrogen bonded (nHB) residue, and differentiate between the favorability of a pair and that of its reverse pair, e.g. Asn(HB)-Thr(nHB)versus Thr(HB)-Asn(nHB). Significantly (p < or = 0.000001) favoured pairings were rationalised using stereochemical arguments. For instance, Asn(HB)-Thr(nHB) and Arg(HB)-Thr(nHB) were favoured pairs, where the residues adopted favoured chi1 rotamer positions that allowed side-chain interactions to occur. In contrast, Thr(HB)-Asn(nHB) and Thr(HB)-Arg(nHB) were not significantly favoured, and could only form side-chain interactions if the residues involved adopted less favourable chi1 conformations. The favourability of hydrophobic pairs e.g. Ile(HB)-Ile(nHB), Val(HB)-Val(nHB) and Leu(HB)-Ile(nHB) was explained by the residues adopting their most preferred chi1 and chi2 conformations, which enabled them to form nested arrangements. Cysteine-cysteine pairs are significantly favoured, although these do not form intrasheet disulphide bridges. Interactions between positively and negatively charged residues were asymmetrically preferred: those with the negatively charged residue at the HB position were more favoured. This trend was accounted for by the presence of general electrostatic interactions, which, based on analysis of distances between charged atoms, were likely to be stronger when the negatively charged residue is the HB partner. The Arg(HB)-Asp(nHB) interaction was an exception to this trend and its favorability was rationalised by the formation of specific side-chain interactions. This research provides rules that could be applied to protein structure prediction, comparative modelling and protein engineering and design. The methods used to analyse the pairing preferences are automated and detailed results are available (http://www.rubic.rdg.ac.uk/betapairprefsparallel/).

Amino acid pairing preferences in parallel beta-sheets in proteins

Statistical approaches have been applied to examine amino acid pairing preferences within parallel beta-sheets. The main chain hydrogen bonding pattern in parallel beta-sheets means that, for each residue pair, only one of the residues is involved in main chain hydrogen bonding with the strand containing the partner residue. We call this the hydrogen bonded (HB) residue and the partner residue the non-hydrogen bonded (nHB) residue, and differentiate between the favourability of a pair and that of its reverse pair, e.g. Asn(HB)-Thr(nHB) versus Thr(HB)-Asn(nHB). Significantly (p <= 0.000001) favoured pairings were rationalised using stereochemical arguments. For instance, Asn(HB)-Thr(nHB) and Arg(HB)-Thr(nHB) were favoured pairs, where the residues adopted favoured chi(1) rotamer positions that allowed side-chain interactions to occur. In contrast, Thr(HB)-Asn(nHB) and Thr(HB)-Arg(nHB) were not significantly favoured, and could only form side-chain interactions if the residues involved adopted less favourable chi(1) conformations. The favourability of hydrophobic pairs e.g. Ile(HB)-Ile(nHB), Val(HB)-Val(nHB) and Leu(HB)-Ile(nHB) was explained by the residues adopting their most preferred chi(1) and chi(2) conformations, which enabled them to form nested arrangements. Cysteine-cysteine pairs are significantly favoured, although these do not form intrasheet disulphide bridges. Interactions between positively and negatively charged residues were asymmetrically preferred: those with the negatively charged residue at the HB position were more favoured. This trend was accounted for by the presence of general electrostatic interactions, which, based on analysis of distances between charged atoms, were likely to be stronger when the negatively charged residue is the HB partner. The Arg(HB)-Asp(nHB) interaction was an exception to this trend and its favourability was rationalised by the formation of specific side-chain interactions. This research provides rules that could be applied to protein structure prediction, comparative modelling and protein engineering and design. The methods used to analyse the pairing preferences are automated and detailed results are available (http:// www.rubic.rdg.ac.uk/betapairprefsparallel/). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence for inclusion of South African endemic Nylandtia in Muraltia (Polygalaceae)

Nylandtia (Polygalaceae) is a small South African genus of two or more species distributed mainly in the Cape region. Previous studies based on anatomical, morphological and molecular data have already revealed a close relationship between Nylandtia and Muraltia, a genus of 117 species that is nearly endemic to South Africa. New evidence from molecular studies of family Polygalaceae and genus Muraltia shows that Nylandtia is derived from genus Muraltia, and is nested in Muraltia subgenus Psiloclada. These results have prompted a morphological re-evaluation of the genera Nylandtia and Muraltia, supporting the conclusion that the two species of Nylandtia currently recognized, N. spinosa and N. scoparia, should be included in subgenus Psiloclada within the genus Muraltia. Only one nomenclatural change is necessary: Muraltia spinosa (L.) E Forest & J. C. Manning, comb. nov.

Amphioxus molecular biology: insights into vertebrate evolution and developmental mechanisms

The cephalochordate amphioxus is the best available proxy for the last common invertebrate ancestor of the vertebrates. During the last decade, the developmental genetics of amphioxus have been extensively examined for insights into the evolutionary origin and early evolution of the vertebrates. Comparisons between expression domains of homologous genes in amphioxus and vertebrates have strengthened proposed homologies between specific body parts. Molecular genetic studies have also highlighted parallels in the developmental mechanisms of amphioxus and vertebrates. In both groups, a similar nested pattern of Hox gene expression is involved in rostrocaudal patterning of the neural tube, and homologous genes also appear to be involved in dorsoventral neural patterning. Studies of amphioxus molecular biology have also hinted that the protochordate ancestor of the vertebrates included cell populations that modified their developmental genetic pathways during early vertebrate evolution to yield definitive neural crest and neurogenic placodes. We also discuss how the application of expressed sequence tag and gene-mapping approaches to amphioxus have combined with developmental studies to advance our understanding of chordate genome evolution. We conclude by considering the potential offered by the sequencing of the amphioxus genome, which was completed in late 2004.

Phylogeny of Pelargonium (Geraniaceae) based on DNA sequences from three genomes

Phylogenetic hypotheses for the largely South African genus Pelargonium L'Hér. (Geraniaceae) were derived based on DNA sequence data from nuclear, chloroplast and mitochondrial encoded regions. The datasets were unequally represented and comprised cpDNA trnL-F sequences for 152 taxa, nrDNA ITS sequences for 55 taxa, and mtDNA nad1 b/c exons for 51 taxa. Phylogenetic hypotheses derived from the separate three datasets were overall congruent. A single hypothesis synthesising the information in the three datasets was constructed following a total evidence approach and implementing dataset specific stepmatrices in order to correct for substitution biases. Pelargonium was found to consist of five main clades, some with contrasting evolutionary patterns with respect to biogeographic distributions, dispersal capacity, pollination biology and karyological diversification. The five main clades are structured in two (subgeneric) clades that correlate with chromosome size. One of these clades includes a "winter rainfall clade" containing more than 70% of all currently described Pelargonium species, and all restricted to the South African Cape winter rainfall region. Apart from (woody) shrubs and small herbaceous rosette subshrubs, this clade comprises a large "xerophytic" clade including geophytes, stem and leaf succulents, harbouring in total almost half of the genus. This clade is considered to be the result of in situ proliferation, possibly in response to late-Miocene and Pliocene aridification events. Nested within it is a radiation comprising c. 80 species from the geophytic Pelargonium section Hoarea, all characterised by the possession of (a series of) tunicate tubers.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

Phylogenomics of eukaryotes: Impact of missing data on large alignments

Resolving the relationships between Metazoa and other eukaryotic groups as well as between metazoan phyla is central to the understanding of the origin and evolution of animals. The current view is based on limited data sets, either a single gene with many species (e.g., ribosomal RNA) or many genes but with only a few species. Because a reliable phylogenetic inference simultaneously requires numerous genes and numerous species, we assembled a very large data set containing 129 orthologous proteins (similar to30,000 aligned amino acid positions) for 36 eukaryotic species. Included in the alignments are data from the choanoflagellate Monosiga ovata, obtained through the sequencing of about 1,000 cDNAs. We provide conclusive support for choanoflagellates as the closest relative of animals and for fungi as the second closest. The monophyly of Plantae and chromalveolates was recovered but without strong statistical support. Within animals, in contrast to the monophyly of Coelomata observed in several recent large-scale analyses, we recovered a paraphyletic Coelamata, with nematodes and platyhelminths nested within. To include a diverse sample of organisms, data from EST projects were used for several species, resulting in a large amount of missing data in our alignment (about 25%). By using different approaches, we verify that the inferred phylogeny is not sensitive to these missing data. Therefore, this large data set provides a reliable phylogenetic framework for studying eukaryotic and animal evolution and will be easily extendable when large amounts of sequence information become available from a broader taxonomic range.

A Bayesian approach to disease gene location using allelic association

A Bayesian approach to analysing data from family-based association studies is developed. This permits direct assessment of the range of possible values of model parameters, such as the recombination frequency and allelic associations, in the light of the data. In addition, sophisticated comparisons of different models may be handled easily, even when such models are not nested. The methodology is developed in such a way as to allow separate inferences to be made about linkage and association by including theta, the recombination fraction between the marker and disease susceptibility locus under study, explicitly in the model. The method is illustrated by application to a previously published data set. The data analysis raises some interesting issues, notably with regard to the weight of evidence necessary to convince us of linkage between a candidate locus and disease.

Serum proteomic abnormality predating screen detection of ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer is characterized by vague, non-specific symptoms, advanced stage at diagnosis and poor overall survival. A nested case control study was undertaken on stored serial serum samples from women who developed ovarian cancer and healthy controls (matched for serum processing and storage conditions as well as attributes such as age) in a pilot randomized controlled trial of ovarian cancer screening. The unique feature of this study is that the women were screened for up to 7 years. The serum samples underwent prefractionation using a reversed-phase batch extraction protocol prior to MALDI-TOF MS data acquisition. Our exploratory analysis shows that combining a single MS peak with CA125 allows statistically significant discrimination at the 5% level between cases and controls up to 12 months in advance of the original diagnosis of ovarian cancer. Such combinations work much better than a single peak or CA125 alone. This paper demonstrates that mass spectra from the low molecular weight serum proteome carry information useful for early detection of ovarian cancer. The next step is to identify the specific biomarkers that make early detection possible.

Self-exclusion from health care in women at high risk for postpartum depression

Background A significant proportion of women who are vulnerable to postnatal depression refuse to engage in treatment programmes. Little is known about them, other than some general demographic characteristics. In particular, their access to health care and their own and their infants' health outcomes are uncharted. Methods We conducted a nested cohort case-control study, using data from computerized health systems, and general practitioner (GP) and maternity records, to identify the characteristics, health service contacts, and maternal and infant health outcomes for primiparous antenatal clinic attenders at high risk for postnatal depression who either refused (self-exclusion group) or else agreed (take-up group) to receive additional Health Visiting support in pregnancy and the first 2 months postpartum. Results Women excluding themselves from Health Visitor support were younger and less highly educated than women willing to take up the support. They were less likely to attend midwifery, GP and routine Health Visitor appointments, but were more likely to book in late and to attend accident and emergency department (A&E). Their infants had poorer outcome in terms of gestation, birthweight and breastfeeding. Differences between the groups still obtained when age and education were taken into account for midwifery contacts, A&E attendance and gestation;the difference in the initiation of breast feeding was attenuated, but not wholly explained, by age and education. Conclusion A subgroup of psychologically vulnerable childbearing women are at particular risk for poor access to health care and adverse infant outcome. Barriers to take-up of services need to be understood in order better to deliver care.

Uniformization of affine dependence programs for parallel embedded system design

This paper is concerned with the uniformization of a system of afine recurrence equations. This transformation is used in the design (or compilation) of highly parallel embedded systems (VLSI systolic arrays, signal processing filters, etc.). In this paper, we present and implement an automatic system to achieve uniformization of systems of afine recurrence equations. We unify the results from many earlier papers, develop some theoretical extensions, and then propose effective uniformization algorithms. Our results can be used in any high level synthesis tool based on polyhedral representation of nested loop computations.