Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. II: Annual and interannual variability

The annual and interannual variability of idealized, linear, equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere is investigated using the temperature and velocity fields from the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset. Peak Kelvin wave activity occurs during solstice seasons at 100 hPa, during December-February at 70 hPa and in the easterly to westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase transition at 50 hPa. Peak Rossby-gravity wave activity occurs during equinox seasons at 100 hPa, during June-August/September-November at 70 hPa and in the westerly to easterly QBO phase transition at 50 hPa. Although neglect of wind shear means that the results for inertio-gravity waves are likely to be less accurate, they are still qualitatively reasonable and an annual cycle is observed in these waves at 100 hPa and 70 hPa. Inertio-gravity waves with n = 1 are correlated with the QBO at 50 hPa, but the eastward inertio-gravity n = 0 wave is not, due to its very fast vertical group velocity in all background winds. The relative importance of different wave types in driving the QBO at 50 hPa is also discussed. The strongest acceleration appears to be provided by the Kelvin wave while the acceleration provided by the Rossby-gravity wave is negligible. Of the higher-frequency waves, the westward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave appears able to contribute more to the acceleration of the 50 hPa mean zonal wind than the eastward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave.

Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. I: A novel detection method

Wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis and linear wave theory are combined in a novel method to quantitatively estimate equatorial wave activity in the tropical lower stratosphere. The method requires temperature and velocity observations that are regularly spaced in latitude, longitude and time; it is therefore applied to the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset (ERA-15). Signals consistent with idealized Kelvin and Rossby-gravity waves are found at wavenumbers and frequencies in agreement with previous studies. When averaged over 1981-93, the Kelvin wave explains approximately 1 K-2 of temperature variance on the equator at 100 hPa, while the Rossby-gravity wave explains approximately 1 m(2)s(-2) of meridional wind variance. Some inertio-gravity wave and equatorial Rossby wave signals are also found; however the resolution of ERA-15 is not sufficient for the method to provide an accurate climatology of waves with high meridional structure.

The quasi-nondispersive regimes of long extratropical baroclinic rossby waves over (slowly varying) topography

Actual energy paths of long, extratropical baroclinic Rossby waves in the ocean are difficult to describe simply because they depend on the meridional-wavenumber-to-zonal-wavenumber ratio tau, a quantity that is difficult to estimate both observationally and theoretically. This paper shows, however, that this dependence is actually weak over any interval in which the zonal phase speed varies approximately linearly with tau, in which case the propagation becomes quasi-nondispersive (QND) and describable at leading order in terms of environmental conditions (i.e., topography and stratification) alone. As an example, the purely topographic case is shown to possess three main kinds of QND ray paths. The first is a topographic regime in which the rays follow approximately the contours f/h(alpha c) = a constant (alpha(c) is a near constant fixed by the strength of the stratification, f is the Coriolis parameter, and h is the ocean depth). The second and third are, respectively, "fast" and "slow" westward regimes little affected by topography and associated with the first and second bottom-pressure-compensated normal modes studied in previous work by Tailleux and McWilliams. Idealized examples show that actual rays can often be reproduced with reasonable accuracy by replacing the actual dispersion relation by its QND approximation. The topographic regime provides an upper bound ( in general a large overestimate) of the maximum latitudinal excursions of actual rays. The method presented in this paper is interesting for enabling an optimal classification of purely azimuthally dispersive wave systems into simpler idealized QND wave regimes, which helps to rationalize previous empirical findings that the ray paths of long Rossby waves in the presence of mean flow and topography often seem to be independent of the wavenumber orientation. Two important side results are to establish that the baroclinic string function regime of Tyler and K se is only valid over a tiny range of the topographic parameter and that long baroclinic Rossby waves propagating over topography do not obey any two-dimensional potential vorticity conservation principle. Given the importance of the latter principle in geophysical fluid dynamics, the lack of it in this case makes the concept of the QND regimes all the more important, for they are probably the only alternative to provide a simple and economical description of general purely azimuthally dispersive wave systems.

On the initiation of surface waves by turbulent shear flow

An analytical model is developed for the initial stage of surface wave generation at an air-water interface by a turbulent shear flow in either the air or in the water. The model treats the problem of wave growth departing from a flat interface and is relevant for small waves whose forcing is dominated by turbulent pressure fluctuations. The wave growth is predicted using the linearised and inviscid equations of motion, essentially following Phillips [Phillips, O.M., 1957. On the generation of waves by turbulent wind. J. Fluid Mech. 2, 417-445], but the pressure fluctuations that generate the waves are treated as unsteady and related to the turbulent velocity field using the rapid-distortion treatment of Durbin [Durbin, P.A., 1978. Rapid distortion theory of turbulent flows. PhD thesis, University of Cambridge]. This model, which assumes a constant mean shear rate F, can be viewed as the simplest representation of an oceanic or atmospheric boundary layer. For turbulent flows in the air and in the water producing pressure fluctuations of similar magnitude, the waves generated by turbulence in the water are found to be considerably steeper than those generated by turbulence in the air. For resonant waves, this is shown to be due to the shorter decorrelation time of turbulent pressure in the air (estimated as proportional to 1/Gamma), because of the higher shear rate existing in the air flow, and due to the smaller length scale of the turbulence in the water. Non-resonant waves generated by turbulence in the water, although being somewhat gentler, are still steeper than resonant waves generated by turbulence in the air. Hence, it is suggested that turbulence in the water may have a more important role than previously thought in the initiation of the surface waves that are subsequently amplified by feedback instability mechanisms.

The social impacts of heat waves

The effects of the 2003 European heat wave have highlighted the need for society to prepare itself for and cope more effectively with heat waves. This is particularly important in the context of predicted climate change and the likelihood of more frequent extreme climate events; to date, heat as a natural hazard has been largely ignored. In order to develop better coping strategies, this report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects. The main factors of vulnerability are being elderly, living alone, having a pre-existing disease, being immobile or suffering from mental illness and being economically disadvantaged. The synergistic effects of such factors may prove fatal for some. Heat waves have discernible impacts on society including a rise in mortality, an increased strain on infrastructure (power, water and transport) and a possible rise in social disturbance. Wider impacts may include effects on the retail industry, ecosystem services and tourism. Adapting to more frequent heat waves should include soft engineering options and, where possible, avoid the widespread use of air conditioning which could prove unsustainable in energy terms. Strategies for coping with heat include changing the way in which urban areas are developed or re-developed, and setting up heat watch warning systems based around weather and seasonal climate forecasting and intervention strategies. Although heat waves have discernible effects on society, much remains unknown about their wider social impacts, diffuse health issues and how to manage them.