Ocean circulation and climate in an idealised Pangean OAGCM

An idealised Pangean configuration is integrated in a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model to investigate the form of the ocean circulation and its impacts on the large scale climate system. A vigorous, hemispherically symmetric overturning is found, driven by deep water formation at high latitudes. Whilst the peak mass transport is around 100Sv, a low vertical temperature gradient in the ocean means that the maximum heat transport is only 1.2PW. The geographical change in the coupled model is found to produce a global average warming of 2°C, despite an increase in global surface albedo. This occurs through changes in the atmospheric water vapour and cloud distributions. There is also reduction in the equator-pole temperature gradient, largely attributable to the same causes, avoiding the paradox of low meridional temperature gradients without increased polar heat transport.

3-5-man mutual zugzwangs in chess

This note reports the work of Wirth and Karrer in twin-sourcing all mutual zugzwang positions, mzugs, in 2-5-man endgames. This paper tabulates the mzug statistical data, gives examples of maximal mzugs and refers to a chess endgame website where further data is to be found.

Parameter estimation using a particle method: inferring mixing coefficients from sea level observations

This paper presents a first attempt to estimate mixing parameters from sea level observations using a particle method based on importance sampling. The method is applied to an ensemble of 128 members of model simulations with a global ocean general circulation model of high complexity. Idealized twin experiments demonstrate that the method is able to accurately reconstruct mixing parameters from an observed mean sea level field when mixing is assumed to be spatially homogeneous. An experiment with inhomogeneous eddy coefficients fails because of the limited ensemble size. This is overcome by the introduction of local weighting, which is able to capture spatial variations in mixing qualitatively. As the sensitivity of sea level for variations in mixing is higher for low values of mixing coefficients, the method works relatively well in regions of low eddy activity.

Forward modelling to determine the observational signatures of white-light imaging and interplanetary scintillation for the propagation of an interplanetary shock in the ecliptic plane

Recent coordinated observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) from the EISCAT, MERLIN, and STELab, and stereoscopic white-light imaging from the two heliospheric imagers (HIs) onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft are significant to continuously track the propagation and evolution of solar eruptions throughout interplanetary space. In order to obtain a better understanding of the observational signatures in these two remote-sensing techniques, the magnetohydrodynamics of the macro-scale interplanetary disturbance and the radio-wave scattering of the micro-scale electron-density fluctuation are coupled and investigated using a newly constructed multi-scale numerical model. This model is then applied to a case of an interplanetary shock propagation within the ecliptic plane. The shock could be nearly invisible to an HI, once entering the Thomson-scattering sphere of the HI. The asymmetry in the optical images between the western and eastern HIs suggests the shock propagation off the Sun–Earth line. Meanwhile, an IPS signal, strongly dependent on the local electron density, is insensitive to the density cavity far downstream of the shock front. When this cavity (or the shock nose) is cut through by an IPS ray-path, a single speed component at the flank (or the nose) of the shock can be recorded; when an IPS ray-path penetrates the sheath between the shock nose and this cavity, two speed components at the sheath and flank can be detected. Moreover, once a shock front touches an IPS ray-path, the derived position and speed at the irregularity source of this IPS signal, together with an assumption of a radial and constant propagation of the shock, can be used to estimate the later appearance of the shock front in the elongation of the HI field of view. The results of synthetic measurements from forward modelling are helpful in inferring the in-situ properties of coronal mass ejection from real observational data via an inverse approach.

Association between ovarian follicle development and pregnancy rates in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles

Ovarian follicle development continues in a wave-like manner during the bovine oestrous cycle giving rise to variation in the duration of ovulatory follicle development. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether a relationship exists between the duration of ovulatory follicle development and pregnancy rates following artificial insemination (AI) in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, and to identify factors influencing follicle turnover and pregnancy rate and the relationship between these two variables. Follicle development was monitored by daily transrectal ultrasonography from 10 days after oestrus until the subsequent oestrus in 158 lactating dairy cows. The cows were artificially inseminated following the second observed oestrus and pregnancy was diagnosed 35 days later. The predominant pattern of follicle development was two follicle waves (74.7%) with three follicle waves in 22.1% of oestrous cycles and four or more follicle waves in 3.2% of oestrous cycles. The interval from ovulatory follicle emergence to oestrus (EOI) was 3 days longer (P < 0.0001) in cows with two follicle waves than in those with three waves. Ovulatory follicles from two-wave oestrous cycles grew more slowly but were approximately 2 mm larger (P < 0.0001) on the day of oestrus. Twin ovulations were observed in 14.2% of oestrous cycles and occurred more frequently (P < 0.001) in three-wave oestrous cycles; consequently EOI was shorter in cows with twin ovulations. Overall, 57.0% of the cows were diagnosed pregnant 35 days after AI. Linear logistic regression analysis revealed an inverse relationship between EOI and the proportion of cows diagnosed pregnant, among all cows (n = 158; P < 0.01) and amongst those with single ovulations (n = 145; P < 0.05). Mean EOI was approximately I day shorter (P < 0.01) in cows that became pregnant than in non-pregnant cows; however, pregnancy rates did not differ significantly among cows with different patterns of follicle development. These findings confirm and extend previous observations in pharmacologically manipulated cattle and show, for the first time, that in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, natural variation in the duration of post-emergence ovulatory follicle development has a significant effect on pregnancy rate, presumably reflecting variation in oocyte developmental competence.

Dichrostachys cinerea and Acacia nilotica fruits as dry season feed supplements for goats in a semi-arid environment: Summary of a DFID funded project in Zimbabwe

Indehiscent fruits of six tree species, common in Matabeleland were examined in in vitro and in vivo trials. The results for two of them, Acacia nilotica and Dichrostachys cinerea are presented here. Acacia nilotica-contained more total phenolics than D. cinerea, but less nitrogen (N) and fibre (ADF and NDF). After 48 h incubation, in vitro OMD of both species was increased by PEG and NaOH or wood ash treatment, except when NaOH or wood ash were used in combination with PEG with D. cinerea fruits. DM intake, DMD were lowest and N-retention negative in goats fed A. nilotica as supplement. However when fed a supplement of D. cinerea, untreated or treated with PEG or NaOH, digestibility and N-retention were highest, and similar to a commercial goat meal, with the untreated fruit. In a trial in which milking does were supplemented with D. cinerea fruits, for 65 before and 65 days after kidding, kid birthweight and weaning weight were increased by supplementation. Deaths of twin-born kids were lowest in the supplemented but unmilked group. Supplementation with D. cinerea fruit resulted in improved goat performance. The only treatment applied of practical significance, wood ash, is currently being tested in an in vivo study. More research is required on detoxification of tannins, especially with A. nilotica. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparing correlations of continuous observations from two independent populations using a sequential approach

A sequential study design generally makes more efficient use of available information than a fixed sample counterpart of equal power. This feature is gradually being exploited by researchers in genetic and epidemiological investigations that utilize banked biological resources and in studies where time, cost and ethics are prominent considerations. Recent work in this area has focussed on the sequential analysis of matched case-control studies with a dichotomous trait. In this paper, we extend the sequential approach to a comparison of the associations within two independent groups of paired continuous observations. Such a comparison is particularly relevant in familial studies of phenotypic correlation using twins. We develop a sequential twin method based on the intraclass correlation and show that use of sequential methodology can lead to a substantial reduction in the number of observations without compromising the study error rates. Additionally, our approach permits straightforward allowance for other explanatory factors in the analysis. We illustrate our method in a sequential heritability study of dysplasia that allows for the effect of body mass index and compares monozygotes with pairs of singleton sisters. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Association between ovarian follicle development and pregnancy rates in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles

Ovarian follicle development continues in a wave-like manner during the bovine oestrous cycle giving rise to variation in the duration of ovulatory follicle development. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether a relationship exists between the duration of ovulatory follicle development and pregnancy rates following artificial insemination (AI) in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, and to identify factors influencing follicle turnover and pregnancy rate and the relationship between these two variables. Follicle development was monitored by daily transrectal ultrasonography from 10 days after oestrus until the subsequent oestrus in 158 lactating dairy cows. The cows were artificially inseminated following the second observed oestrus and pregnancy was diagnosed 35 days later. The predominant pattern of follicle development was two follicle waves (74.7%) with three follicle waves in 22.1% of oestrous cycles and four or more follicle waves in 3.2% of oestrous cycles. The interval from ovulatory follicle emergence to oestrus (EOI) was 3 days longer (P < 0.0001) in cows with two follicle waves than in those with three waves. Ovulatory follicles from two-wave oestrous cycles grew more slowly but were approximately 2 mm larger (P < 0.0001) on the day of oestrus. Twin ovulations were observed in 14.2% of oestrous cycles and occurred more frequently (P < 0.001) in three-wave oestrous cycles; consequently EOI was shorter in cows with twin ovulations. Overall, 57.0% of the cows were diagnosed pregnant 35 days after AI. Linear logistic regression analysis revealed an inverse relationship between EOI and the proportion of cows diagnosed pregnant, among all cows (n = 158; P < 0.01) and amongst those with single ovulations (n = 145; P < 0.05). Mean EOI was approximately I day shorter (P < 0.01) in cows that became pregnant than in non-pregnant cows; however, pregnancy rates did not differ significantly among cows with different patterns of follicle development. These findings confirm and extend previous observations in pharmacologically manipulated cattle and show, for the first time, that in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, natural variation in the duration of post-emergence ovulatory follicle development has a significant effect on pregnancy rate, presumably reflecting variation in oocyte developmental competence.

Antioxidant properties of Teaw (Cratoxylum formosum Dyer) extract in soybean oil and emulsions

The antioxidant activity of an extract from Teaw (Cratoxylum formosum Dyer) leaves was studied in soybean oil and soybean oil-in-water emulsions. Samples containing the extract or reference antioxidants including chlorogenic acid, which comprises 60% of the Teaw extract, were stored at 60 degrees C and analyzed periodically for peroxide value (PV) and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) to allow both hydroperoxides and hydroperoxide degradation products to be monitored. Chlorogenic acid and the Teaw extract were more effective than a-tocopherol in inhibiting lipid oxidation in bulk oil but were less effective in an oil-in-water emulsion in accordance with the polar paradox. The PV/TBARS ratio for oil samples containing chlorogenic acid was higher than for alpha-tocopherol and BHT because chlorogenic acid inhibits both hydroperoxide formation by radical scavenging and hydroperoxide decomposition by metal chelation. The importance of the metal-chelating activity in retarding hydroperoxide decomposition was confirmed by studying the decomposition of oil samples containing added ferric ions. The PV/TBARS ratio was higher for citric acid than for (x-tocopherol in the presence of added ferric chloride, but the order was reversed in samples lacking ferric chloride. Samples containing added chlorogenic acid gave the highest PV/TBARS ratios both in the presence and absence of ferric ions. The PV/TBARS ratios for the samples containing antioxidants fell rapidly to lower values in a soybean oil-in-water emulsion than in the soybean oil. This was due to increased hydroperoxide decomposition in the emulsion at the same PV. The Teaw extract contained 12% oil-soluble components, which contributed to a slightly higher oil-water partition coefficient than that of chlorogenic acid. The antioxidant activity of the aqueous phase of the Teaw extract was reduced more than that of chlorogenic acid by partitioning of the oil-soluble components into oil, which showed that the less-polar components contributed to the antioxidant activity of the Teaw extract in aqueous media.

Stereoscopic imaging of an Earth-impacting solar coronal mass ejection: a major milestone for the STEREO mission

We present stereoscopic images of an Earth-impacting Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The CME was imaged by the Heliospheric Imagers onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft during December 2008. The apparent acceleration of the CME is used to provide independent estimates of its speed and direction from the two spacecraft. Three distinct signatures within the CME were all found to be closely Earth-directed. At the time that the CME was predicted to pass the ACE spacecraft, in-situ observations contained a typical CME signature. At Earth, ground-based magnetometer observations showed a small but widespread sudden response to the compression of the geomagnetic cavity at CME impact. In this case, STEREO could have given warning of CME impact at least 24 hours in advance. These stereoscopic observations represent a significant milestone for the STEREO mission and have significant potential for improving operational space weather forecasting.

A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning

Although the use of climate scenarios for impact assessment has grown steadily since the 1990s, uptake of such information for adaptation is lagging by nearly a decade in terms of scientific output. Nonetheless, integration of climate risk information in development planning is now a priority for donor agencies because of the need to prepare for climate change impacts across different sectors and countries. This urgency stems from concerns that progress made against Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could be threatened by anthropogenic climate change beyond 2015. Up to this time the human signal, though detectable and growing, will be a relatively small component of climate variability and change. This implies the need for a twin-track approach: on the one hand, vulnerability assessments of social and economic strategies for coping with present climate extremes and variability, and, on the other hand, development of climate forecast tools and scenarios to evaluate sector-specific, incremental changes in risk over the next few decades. This review starts by describing the climate outlook for the next couple of decades and the implications for adaptation assessments. We then review ways in which climate risk information is already being used in adaptation assessments and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of three groups of techniques. Next we identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improving the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. We assert that climate change scenarios can meet some, but not all, of the needs of adaptation planning. Even then, the choice of scenario technique must be matched to the intended application, taking into account local constraints of time, resources, human capacity and supporting infrastructure. We also show that much greater attention should be given to improving and critiquing models used for climate impact assessment, as standard practice. Finally, we highlight the over-arching need for the scientific community to provide more information and guidance on adapting to the risks of climate variability and change over nearer time horizons (i.e. the 2020s). Although the focus of the review is on information provision and uptake in developing regions, it is clear that many developed countries are facing the same challenges. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Complex history of a chromosomal paralogy region: insights from amphioxus aromatic amino acid hydroxylase genes and insulin-related genes

Aromatic amino acid hydroxylase (AAAH) genes and insulin-like genes form part of an extensive paralogy region shared by human chromosomes 11 and 12, thought to have arisen by tetraploidy in early vertebrate evolution. Cloning of a complementary DNA (cDNA) for an amphioxus (Branchiostoma floridae) hydroxylase gene (AmphiPAH) allowed us to investigate the ancestry of the human chromosome 11/12 paralogy region. Molecular phylogenetic evidence reveals that AmphiPAH is orthologous to vertebrate phenylalanine (PAH) genes; the implication is that all three vertebrate AAAH genes arose early in metazoan evolution, predating vertebrates. In contrast, our phylogenetic analysis of amphioxus and vertebrate insulin-related gene sequences is consistent with duplication of these genes during early chordate ancestry. The conclusion is that two tightly linked gene families on human chromosomes 11 and 12 were not duplicated coincidentally. We rationalize this paradox by invoking gene loss in the AAAH gene family and conclude that paralogous genes shared by paralogous chromosomes need not have identical evolutionary histories.

Measuring the impact of observations on the predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in a shallow-water model

In this paper sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on a ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). This particle filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows us to determine the predictive power — an entropy based measure — of the ensemble prediction. The proposed set-up makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a post-processing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one-year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow water model. We investigate the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering state of the KE. Optimal observations location correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the KE. During the contracted state of the KE it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast.

Location and collocation advantages in international innovation

Purpose – This paper examines the role of location-specific (L) advantages in the spatial distribution of multinational enterprise (MNE) R&D activity. The meaning of L advantages is revisited. In addition to L advantages that are industry-specific, the paper emphasises that there is an important category of L advantages, referred to as collocation advantages. Design/methodology/approach – Using the OLI framework, this paper highlights that the innovation activities of MNEs are about interaction of these variables, and the essential process of internalising L advantages to enhance and create firm-specific advantages. Findings – Collocation advantages derive from spatial proximity to specific unaffiliated firms, which may be suppliers, competitors, or customers. It is also argued that L advantages are not always public goods, because they may not be available to all firms at a similar or marginal cost. These costs are associated with access and internalisation of L advantages, and – especially in the case of R&D – are attendant with the complexities of embeddedness. Originality/value – The centralisation/decentralisation, spatial separation/collocation debates in R&D location have been mistakenly viewed as a paradox facing firms, instead of as a trade-off that firms must make.

The effect of nonlinearity on the variational assimilation of satellite observations using a simple column model

Cloud imagery is not currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extract the type of dynamical information that experienced forecasters have extracted subjectively for many years. For example, rapidly developing mid-latitude cyclones have characteristic signatures in the cloud imagery that are most fully appreciated from a sequence of images rather than from a single image. The Met Office is currently developing a technique to extract dynamical development information from satellite imagery using their full incremental 4D-Var (four-dimensional variational data assimilation) system. We investigate a simplified form of this technique in a fully nonlinear framework. We convert information on the vertical wind field, w(z), and profiles of temperature, T(z, t), and total water content, qt (z, t), as functions of height, z, and time, t, to a single brightness temperature by defining a 2D (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of w, T and qt are updated using a simple vertical advection scheme. We define a basic cloud scheme to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, we convert this information into a brightness temperature, having developed a simple radiative transfer scheme. With the exception of some matrix inversion routines, all our code is developed from scratch. Throughout the development process we test all aspects of our 2D assimilation system, and then run identical twin experiments to try and recover information on the vertical velocity, from a sequence of observations of brightness temperature. This thesis contains a comprehensive description of our nonlinear models and assimilation system, and the first experimental results.