City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable transitions

Cities are responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption. By 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city-regions (i.e. the city and its wider hinterland) to re-engineer systemically their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. To inform transitions to urban sustainability, key stakeholders' perceptions were sought though a participatory backcasting and scenario foresight process in order to illuminate challenging but realistic socio-technical scenarios for the systemic retrofit of core UK city-regions. The challenge of conceptualizing complex urban transitions is explored across multiple socio-technical ‘regimes’ (housing, non-domestic buildings, urban infrastructure), scales (building, neighbourhood, city-region), and domains (energy, water, use of resources) within a participatory process. The development of three archetypal ‘guiding visions’ of retrofit city-regional futures developed through this process are discussed, along with the contribution that such foresight processes might play in ‘opening up’ the governance and strategic navigation of urban sustainability.

Urban retrofitting: identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques

Cities, which are now inhabited by a majority of the world's population, are not only an important source of global environmental and resource depletion problems, but can also act as important centres of technological innovation and social learning in the continuing quest for a low carbon future. Planning and managing large-scale transitions in cities to deal with these pressures require an understanding of urban retrofitting at city scale. In this context performative techniques (such as backcasting and roadmapping) can provide valuable tools for helping cities develop a strategic view of the future. However, it is also important to identify ‘disruptive’ and ‘sustaining’ technologies which may contribute to city-based sustainability transitions. This paper presents research findings from the EPSRC Retrofit 2050 project, and explores the relationship between technology roadmaps and transition theory literature, highlighting the research gaps at urban/city level. The paper develops a research methodology to describe the development of three guiding visions for city-regional retrofit futures, and identifies key sustaining and disruptive technologies at city scale within these visions using foresight (horizon scanning) techniques. The implications of the research for city-based transition studies and related methodologies are discussed.

Combined use of satellite estimates and rain gauge observations to generate high-quality historical rainfall time series over Ethiopia

Climate data are used in a number of applications including climate risk management and adaptation to climate change. However, the availability of climate data, particularly throughout rural Africa, is very limited. Available weather stations are unevenly distributed and mainly located along main roads in cities and towns. This imposes severe limitations to the availability of climate information and services for the rural community where, arguably, these services are needed most. Weather station data also suffer from gaps in the time series. Satellite proxies, particularly satellite rainfall estimate, have been used as alternatives because of their availability even over remote parts of the world. However, satellite rainfall estimates also suffer from a number of critical shortcomings that include heterogeneous time series, short time period of observation, and poor accuracy particularly at higher temporal and spatial resolutions. An attempt is made here to alleviate these problems by combining station measurements with the complete spatial coverage of satellite rainfall estimates. Rain gauge observations are merged with a locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates to produce over 30-years (1983-todate) of rainfall estimates over Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 10 km and a ten-daily time scale. This involves quality control of rain gauge data, generating locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT rainfall estimates, and combining these with rain gauge observations from national station network. The infrared-only satellite rainfall estimates produced using a relatively simple TAMSAT algorithm performed as good as or even better than other satellite rainfall products that use passive microwave inputs and more sophisticated algorithms. There is no substantial difference between the gridded-gauge and combined gauge-satellite products over the test area in Ethiopia having a dense station network; however, the combined product exhibits better quality over parts of the country where stations are sparsely distributed.

Megacities and climate change: a brief overview

Cities have developed into the hotspots of human economic activity. From the appearance of the first cities in the Neolithic to 21st century metropolis their impact on the environment has always been apparent. With more people living in cities than in rural environments now it becomes crucial to understand these environmental impacts. With the immergence of megacities in the 20th century and their continued growth in both, population and economic power, the environmental impact has reached the global scale. In this paper we examine megacity impacts on atmospheric composition and climate. We present basic concepts, discuss various definitions of footprints, summarize research on megacity impacts and assess the impact of megacity emissions on air quality and on the climate at the regional to global scale. The intention and ambition of this paper is to give a comprehensive but brief overview of the science with regard to megacities and the environment.

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas.

Urban-scale Environmental Prediction Systems

Weather, climate, water and related environmental conditions, including air quality, all have profound effects on cities. A growing importance is being attached to understanding and predicting atmospheric conditions and their interactions with other components of the Earth System in cities, at multiple scales. We highlight the need for: (1) development of high-resolution coupled environmental prediction models that include realistic city-specific processes, boundary conditions and fluxes; (2) enhanced observational systems to support (force, constrain, evaluate) these models to provide high quality forecasts for new urban services; (3) provision of meteorological and related environmental variables to aid protection of human health and the environment; (4) new targeted and customized delivery platforms using modern communication techniques, developed with users to ensure that services, advice and warnings result in appropriate action; and (5) development of new skill and capacity to make best use of technologies to deliver new services in complex, challenging and evolving city environments. We highlight the importance of a coordinated and strategic approach that draws on, but does not replicate, past work to maximize benefits to stakeholders.

Creativity, entrepreneurship and economic development: city-level evidence on creativity spillover of entrepreneurship

We examine the black box of creativity, entrepreneurship and economic development by asking about the mechanisms through which creativity can influence economic development in cities. We propose that, like the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship, creativity spillovers occur and can be slowed by a creativity filter. We examine how creativity and entrepreneurship, and creativity and a melting pot environment, interact to influence urban economic development. Using data on 187 cities in 15 European countries for the period 1999–2009, we advance the extant literature by providing evidence on the existence and dynamics of a creativity filter.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Public libraries in the cities of the Roman Empire

A chapter based on a paper given at major conference, arguing that the civic and architectural contexts of many public libraries in the Roman world contributed strongly to their status as conspicuous 'public' buildings, and should inform the way we think of library functions in the Roman world

The effectiveness of somatic embryogenesis in eliminating the cocoa swollen shoot virus from infected cocoa trees

Investigations were undertaken on the use of somatic embryogenesis to generate cocoa swollen shoot virus (CSSV) disease free clonal propagules, from infected trees. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) capillary electrophoresis revealed the presence of CSSV in all the callus tissues induced from the CSSV-infected Amelonado cocoa trees (T1, T2 and T4). The virus was transmitted to primary somatic embryos induced from the infected callus tissues at the rate of 10 (19%), 18 (14%) and 16 (15%) for T1, T2 and T4, respectively. Virus free primary somatic embryos from the infected callus tissues converted into plantlets tested CSSV negative by PCR/capillary electrophoresis 2 years after weaning. Secondary somatic embryos induced from the CSSV-infected primary somatic embryos revealed the presence of viral fragments at the rate of 4 (4%) and 9 (9%) for T2 and T4, respectively. Real-time PCR revealed 23 of the 24 secondary somatic embryos contained no detectable virus. Based on these findings, it is proposed that progressive elimination of the CSSV in infected cocoa trees occurred from primary embryogenesis to secondary embryogenesis. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shoot dieback in clipped young Golden Leyland (Cupressocyparis leylandii) trees - a physiological mechanism?

Shoot dieback is a problem in frequently trimmed Leyland hedges and is increasingly affecting gardeners’ choice of hedge trees, having a negative effect on a conifer nursery industry. Some damage can be attributed to the feeding by aphids, but it is unclear if there are also underlying physiological causes. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that shoot-clipping of conifer trees during adverse growing conditions (i.e. high air temperature and low soil moisture) could be leading to shoot ‘dieback’. Three-year-old Golden Leyland Cypress (x Cupressocyparis leylandii ‘Excalibur Gold’) plants were subjected to either a well-watered or droughted irrigation regime and placed in either a ‘hot’ (average day temperature = 40°C) or a ‘cool’ (average day temperature = 27°C) glasshouse compartment. Half of the plants from each glasshouse were clipped on Day 14 and again on Day 50. Measurements of soil moisture content (SMC), net CO2 assimilation rate (A), stomatal conductance (gs), branchlet xylem water potential (XWP), plant height and foliage colour were made. Within the clipped and unclipped treatments of both glasshouse compartments, plants from the droughted regime had significantly lower values for A, gs and XWP than those from the well-watered regime. However, there was no difference in these parameters between the hot and cool glasshouse compartments. The trends seen for A, gs and XWP of all treatments generally mirrored changes in SMC indicating a direct effect of water supply on these parameters. By the end of the experiment the overall foliage colour of plants from the hot glasshouse was darker than that of plants from the cool glasshouse and the overall foliage colour was also darker following shoot clipping. In general, shoot clipping led to increases in A, gs XWP and SMC. This may be due to the reduction in total leaf area leading to a greater supply of water for the remaining leaves. No shoot ‘dieback’ was observed in any treatment in response to drought stress or shoot-clipping.

LVB: parsimony and simulated annealing in the search for phylogenetic trees

Summary: The program LVB seeks parsimonious phylogenies from nucleotide alignments, using the simulated annealing heuristic. LVB runs fast and gives high quality results.