Determination of digesta flow entering the omasal canal of dairy cows using different marker systems

Four studies were conducted to compare the effect of four indigestible markers (LiCoEDTA, Yb-acetate, Cr-mordanted straw and indigestible neutral-detergent fibre (INDF)) and three marker systems on the flow of digesta entering the omasal canal of lactating dairy cows. Samples of digesta aspirated from the omasal canal were pooled and separated using filtration and high-speed centrifugation into three fractions defined as the liquid phase, small particulate and large particulate matter. Co was primarily associated with the liquid phase, Yb was concentrated in small particulate matter, whilst Cr and INDF were associated with large particles. Digesta flow was calculated based on single markers or using the reconstitution system based on combinations of two (Co + Yb, Co + Cr and Co + INDF) or three markers (Co + Yb + Cr and Co + Yb + INDF). Use of single markers resulted in large differences between estimates of organic matter (OM) flow entering the omasal canal suggesting that samples were not representative of true digesta. Digesta appeared to consist of at least three phases that tended to separate during sampling. OM was concentrated in particulate matter, whilst the liquid phase consisted mainly of volatile fatty acids and inorganic matter. Yb was intimately associated with nitrogenous compounds, whereas Cr and INDF were concentrated in fibrous material. Current data indicated that marker systems based on Yb in combination with Cr or INDF are required for the accurate determination of OM, N and neutral-detergent fibre flow. In cases where the flow of water-soluble nutrients entering the omasal canal is also required, the marker system should also include Co.

Intergenerational transmission of social anxiety: the role of social referencing processes in infancy

Responses to an unfamiliar adult were examined in infants of mothers with social phobia (N = 79) and infants of nonanxious comparison mothers (N = 77) at 10 and 14 months in a social referencing paradigm. On each occasion, a female stranger first interacted with the mother and then approached and interacted with the infant. Over time, infants of mothers with social phobia showed increasing avoidance of the stranger, particularly when they were behaviorally inhibited. In boys, maternal social phobia was associated with increasing fearful responses. Infant avoidance was predicted by expressed maternal anxiety and low levels of encouragement to interact with the stranger. The findings are discussed in relation to theories concerning the intergenerational transmission of social anxiety.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UKMeteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is underestimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

The effects of the RAW filter on the climatology and forecast skill of the SPEEDY model

In a recent study, Williams introduced a simple modification to the widely used Robert–Asselin (RA) filter for numerical integration. The main purpose of the Robert–Asselin–Williams (RAW) filter is to avoid the undesired numerical damping of the RA filter and to increase the accuracy. In the present paper, the effects of the modification are comprehensively evaluated in the Simplified Parameterizations, Primitive Equation Dynamics (SPEEDY) atmospheric general circulation model. First, the authors search for significant changes in the monthly climatology due to the introduction of the new filter. After testing both at the local level and at the field level, no significant changes are found, which is advantageous in the sense that the new scheme does not require a retuning of the parameterized model physics. Second, the authors examine whether the new filter improves the skill of short- and medium-term forecasts. January 1982 data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis are used to evaluate the forecast skill. Improvements are found in all the model variables (except the relative humidity, which is hardly changed). The improvements increase with lead time and are especially evident in medium-range forecasts (96–144 h). For example, in tropical surface pressure predictions, 5-day forecasts made using the RAW filter have approximately the same skill as 4-day forecasts made using the RA filter. The results of this work are encouraging for the implementation of the RAW filter in other models currently using the RA filter.

Particle image velocimetry measurements of turbulent flow within outdoor and indoor urban scale models and flushing motions in urban canopy layers

We investigate the spatial characteristics of urban-like canopy flow by applying particle image velocimetry (PIV) to atmospheric turbulence. The study site was a Comprehensive Outdoor Scale MOdel (COSMO) experiment for urban climate in Japan. The PIV system captured the two-dimensional flow field within the canopy layer continuously for an hour with a sampling frequency of 30 Hz, thereby providing reliable outdoor turbulence statistics. PIV measurements in a wind-tunnel facility using similar roughness geometry, but with a lower sampling frequency of 4 Hz, were also done for comparison. The turbulent momentum flux from COSMO, and the wind tunnel showed similar values and distributions when scaled using friction velocity. Some different characteristics between outdoor and indoor flow fields were mainly caused by the larger fluctuations in wind direction for the atmospheric turbulence. The focus of the analysis is on a variety of instantaneous turbulent flow structures. One remarkable flow structure is termed 'flushing', that is, a large-scale upward motion prevailing across the whole vertical cross-section of a building gap. This is observed intermittently, whereby tracer particles are flushed vertically out from the canopy layer. Flushing phenomena are also observed in the wind tunnel where there is neither thermal stratification nor outer-layer turbulence. It is suggested that flushing phenomena are correlated with the passing of large-scale low-momentum regions above the canopy.

Minimum recovery time between reactive hyperemia stimulus in the repeated measurement of brachial flow-mediated dilatation.

The ability to undertake repeat measurements of flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) within a short time of a previous measurement would be useful to improve accuracy or to repeat a failed initial procedure. Although standard methods report that a minimum of 10 min is required between measurements, there is no published data to support this. Thirty healthy volunteers had five FMD measurements performed within a 2-h period, separated by various time intervals (5, 15 and 30 min). In 19 volunteers, FMD was also performed as soon as the vessel had returned to its baseline diameter. There was no significant difference between any of the FMD measurements or parameters across the visits indicating that repeat measurements may be taken after a minimum of 5 min or as soon as the vessel has returned to its baseline diameter, which in some subjects may be less than 5 min.

Performance analysis of data transmissions in MPLS and non-MPLS networks

Basic Network transactions specifies that datagram from source to destination is routed through numerous routers and paths depending on the available free and uncongested paths which results in the transmission route being too long, thus incurring greater delay, jitter, congestion and reduced throughput. One of the major problems of packet switched networks is the cell delay variation or jitter. This cell delay variation is due to the queuing delay depending on the applied loading conditions. The effect of delay, jitter accumulation due to the number of nodes along transmission routes and dropped packets adds further complexity to multimedia traffic because there is no guarantee that each traffic stream will be delivered according to its own jitter constraints therefore there is the need to analyze the effects of jitter. IP routers enable a single path for the transmission of all packets. On the other hand, Multi-Protocol Label Switching (MPLS) allows separation of packet forwarding and routing characteristics to enable packets to use the appropriate routes and also optimize and control the behavior of transmission paths. Thus correcting some of the shortfalls associated with IP routing. Therefore MPLS has been utilized in the analysis for effective transmission through the various networks. This paper analyzes the effect of delay, congestion, interference, jitter and packet loss in the transmission of signals from source to destination. In effect the impact of link failures, repair paths in the various physical topologies namely bus, star, mesh and hybrid topologies are all analyzed based on standard network conditions.

Gradients of the intergenerational transmission of health in developing countries

This paper investigates sensitivity of the intergenerational transmission of health to changes in the socioeconomic and public health environment into which children are born using individual survey data on 2.24 million children born to 600000 mothers during 1970-2000 in 38 developing countries merged by country and cohort with macroeconomic data. We find that children are more likely to bear the penalty exerted by poor maternal health if they are conceived or born in adverse socioeconomic conditions. Equivalently, shocks to the child’s birth environment are more damaging of children born to women with a weaker stock of health at birth.

NGOs, elite capture and community-driven development: perspectives in rural Mozambique

This article examines the problems of elite capture in community driven development (CDD). Drawing on two case studies of non-governmental organisation (NGO) intervention in rural Mozambique, the authors consider two important variables – 1) the diverse and complex contributions of local elites to CDD in different locations, and 2) the roles that non-elites play in monitoring and controlling leader activities – to argue that donors should be cautious about automatically assuming the prevalence of malevolent patrimonialism and its ill-effects in their projects. This is because the ‘checks and balances’ on elite behaviour that exist within locally-defined and historically-rooted forms of community-based governance are likely to be more effective than those introduced by the external intervener.

An integrated view of data quality in Earth observation

Data quality is a difficult notion to define precisely, and different communities have different views and understandings of the subject. This causes confusion, a lack of harmonization of data across communities and omission of vital quality information. For some existing data infrastructures, data quality standards cannot address the problem adequately and cannot fulfil all user needs or cover all concepts of data quality. In this study, we discuss some philosophical issues on data quality. We identify actual user needs on data quality, review existing standards and specifications on data quality, and propose an integrated model for data quality in the field of Earth observation (EO). We also propose a practical mechanism for applying the integrated quality information model to a large number of datasets through metadata inheritance. While our data quality management approach is in the domain of EO, we believe that the ideas and methodologies for data quality management can be applied to wider domains and disciplines to facilitate quality-enabled scientific research.

Nonlinear stability of Eady's model

A nonlinear stability theorem is established for Eady's model of baroclinic flow. In particular, the Eady basic state is shown to be nonlinearly stable (for arbitrary shear) provided (Δz)/(Δy) > 2(5)^1/2f/(πN),where Δz is the height of the domain, Δy the channel width, f the Coriolis parameter, and N the buoyancy frequency. When this criterion is satisfied, explicit bounds can be derived on the disturbance potential enstrophy, the disturbance energy, and the disturbance available potential energy on the rigid lids, which are expressed in terms of the initial disturbance fields. The disturbances are completely general (with nonzero potential vorticity) and are not assumed to be of small amplitude. The results may be regarded as an extension of Arnol'd's second nonlinear stability theorem to continuously stratified quasigeostrophic baroclinic flow.

Doing more harm than good? Community based natural resource management and the neglect of local institutions in policy development

Approaches to natural resource management emphasise the importance of involving local people and institutions in order to build capacity, limit costs, and achieve environmental sustainability. Governments worldwide, often encouraged by international donors, have formulated devolution policies and legal instruments that provide an enabling environment for devolved natural resource management. However, implementation of these policies reveals serious challenges. This article explores the effects of limited involvement of local people and institutions in policy development and implementation. An in-depth study of the Forest Policy of Malawi and Village Forest Areas in the Lilongwe district provides an example of externally driven policy development which seeks to promote local management of natural resources. The article argues that policy which has weak ownership by national government and does not adequately consider the complexity of local institutions, together with the effects of previous initiatives on them, can create a cumulative legacy through which destructive resource use practices and social conflict may be reinforced. In short, poorly developed and implemented community based natural resource management policies can do considerably more harm than good. Approaches are needed that enable the policy development process to embed an in-depth understanding of local institutions whilst incorporating flexibility to account for their location-specific nature. This demands further research on policy design to enable rigorous identification of positive and negative institutions and ex-ante exploration of the likely effects of different policy interventions.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim  Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location  Europe. Methods  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results  Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions  The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Which of satellite- or model-based estimates is closer to reality for aerosol indirect forcing?

In their contribution to PNAS, Penner et al. (1) used a climate model to estimate the radiative forcing by the aerosol first indirect effect (cloud albedo effect) in two different ways: first, by deriving a statistical relationship between the logarithm of cloud droplet number concentration, ln Nc, and the logarithm of aerosol optical depth, ln AOD (or the logarithm of the aerosol index, ln AI) for present-day and preindustrial aerosol fields, a method that was applied earlier to satellite data (2), and, second, by computing the radiative flux perturbation between two simulations with and without anthropogenic aerosol sources. They find a radiative forcing that is a factor of 3 lower in the former approach than in the latter [as Penner et al. (1) correctly noted, only their “inline” results are useful for the comparison]. This study is a very interesting contribution, but we believe it deserves several clarifications.