Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Accumulated metal speciation in earthworm populations with multi-generational exposure to metalliferous soils: cell fractionation and high energy synchrotron analyses

Predicting metal bioaccumulation and toxicity in soil organisms is complicated by site-specific biotic and abiotic parameters. In this study we exploited tissue fractionation and digestion techniques, combined with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), to investigate the whole-body and subcellular distributions, ligand affinities, and coordination chemistry of accumulated Pb and Zn in field populations of the epigeic earthworm Lumbricus rubellus inhabiting three contrasting metalliferous and two unpolluted soils. Our main findings were (i) earthworms were resident in soils with concentrations of Pb and Zn ranging from 1200 to 27 000 mg kg(-1) and 200 to 34 000 mg kg(-1), respectively; (ii) Pb and Zn primarily accumulated in the posterior alimentary canal in nonsoluble subcellular fractions of earthworms; (iii) site-specific differences in the tissue and subcellular partitioning profiles of populations were observed, with earthworms from a calcareous site partitioning proportionally more Pb to their anterior body segments and Zn to the chloragosome-rich subcellular fraction than their acidic-soil inhabiting counterparts; (iv) XAS indicated that the interpopulation differences in metal partitioning between organs were not accompanied by qualitative differences in ligand-binding speciation, because crystalline phosphate-containing pyromorphite was a predominant chemical species in the whole-worm tissues of all mine soil residents. Differences in metal (Pb, Zn) partitioning at both organ and cellular levels displayed by field populations with protracted histories of metal exposures may reflect their innate ecophysiological responses to essential edaphic variables, such as Ca2+ status. These observations are highly significant in the challenging exercise of interpreting holistic biomarker data delivered by "omic" technologies.

Interpreting the response of a dryland river system to Late Quaternary climate change

A U-series calcrete chronology has been constructed for three Late Quaternary terrace units, termed the D1, D2 and D3 terraces in age descending order, from the Rio Aguas river system of the Sorbas basin, southeast Spain. The D1 terrace formed between 30,300 +/- 4400 year BP and 12,140 +/- 360 year BP, correlating well with the Last Glacial Maximum when rates of sediment supply would have increased greatly, because of higher rates of weathering, reduced vegetation cover and weak soil development. The D2 terrace formed between 12,800 +/- 1100 year BP and 9,600 +/- 530 year BP, correlating well with the Younger Dryas event. The D3 terrace could only be poorly constrained to the early Holocene and no unequivocal cause could be assigned to this period of aggradation. The sedimentology and geomorphology of the D2 terrace suggests, however, that the aggradation of this unit was a response to diapirism/karstic processes occurring within the underlying Messinian gypsum strata and the subsequent damming of the Aguas system. Therefore, despite its coincident occurrence with the Younger Dryas, aggradation of the D2 terrace is unrelated to climate change. The style of this response, controlled predominantly by the characteristics of the underlying bedrock, makes correlating the terrace record of the Aguas with other systems in the Mediterranean unreliable. This study, therefore, highlights the problems of correlating fluvial sequences in regions of variable tectonics, climatic history and bedrock geology and emphasises the need to properly understand the main controls on individual fluvial systems before any attempt is made to correlate their depositional histories. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aqueous geochemistry and oxygen isotope compositions of acid mine drainage from the Río Tinto, SW Spain, highlight inconsistencies in current models

The Rio Tinto river in SW Spain is a classic example of acid mine drainage and the focus of an increasing amount of research including environmental geochemistry, extremophile microbiology and Mars-analogue studies. Its 5000-year mining legacy has resulted in a wide range of point inputs including spoil heaps and tunnels draining underground workings. The variety of inputs and importance of the river as a research site make it an ideal location for investigating sulphide oxidation mechanisms at the field scale. Mass balance calculations showed that pyrite oxidation accounts for over 93% of the dissolved sulphate derived from sulphide oxidation in the Rio Tinto point inputs. Oxygen isotopes in water and sulphate were analysed from a variety of drainage sources and displayed delta O-18((SO4-H2O)) values from 3.9 to 13.6 parts per thousand, indicating that different oxidation pathways occurred at different sites within the catchment. The most commonly used approach to interpreting field oxygen isotope data applies water and oxygen fractionation factors derived from laboratory experiments. We demonstrate that this approach cannot explain high delta O-18((SO4-H2O)) values in a manner that is consistent with recent models of pyrite and sulphoxyanion oxidation. In the Rio Tinto, high delta O-18((SO4-H2O)) values (11.2-13.6 parts per thousand) occur in concentrated (Fe = 172-829 mM), low pH (0.88-1.4), ferrous iron (68-91% of total Fe) waters and are most simply explained by a mechanism involving a dissolved sulphite intermediate, sulphite-water oxygen equilibrium exchange and finally sulphite oxidation to sulphate with O-2. In contrast, drainage from large waste blocks of acid volcanic tuff with pyritiferous veins also had low pH (1.7). but had a low delta O-18((SO4-H2O)) value of 4.0 parts per thousand and high concentrations of ferric iron (Fe(III) = 185 mM, total Fe = 186 mM), suggesting a pathway where ferric iron is the primary oxidant, water is the primary source of oxygen in the sulphate and where sulphate is released directly from the pyrite surface. However, problems remain with the sulphite-water oxygen exchange model and recommendations are therefore made for future experiments to refine our understanding of oxygen isotopes in pyrite oxidation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Putting the pieces back together again: an illustration of the problem of interpreting development indicators using an African case study

Indicators are commonly recommended as tools for assessing the attainment of development, and the current vogue is for aggregating a number of indicators together into a single index. It is claimed that such indices of development help facilitate maximum impact in policy terms by appealing to those who may not necessarily have technical expertise in data collection, analysis and interpretation. In order to help counter criticisms of over-simplification, those advocating such indices also suggest that the raw data be provided so as to allow disaggregation into component parts and hence facilitate a more subtle interpretation if a reader so desires. This paper examines the problems involved with interpreting indices of development by focusing on the United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) published each year in the Human Development Reports (HDRs). The HDI was intended to provide an alternative to the more economic based indices, such as GDP, commonly used within neo-liberal development agendas. The paper explores the use of the HDI as a gauge of human development by making comparisons between two major political and economic communities in Africa (ECOWAS and SADC). While the HDI did help highlight important changes in human development as expressed by the HDI over 10 years, it is concluded that the HDI and its components are difficult to interpret as methodologies have changed significantly and the 'averaging' nature of the HDI could hide information unless care is taken. The paper discusses the applicability of alternative models to the HDI such as the more neo-populist centred methods commonly advocated for indicators of sustainable development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption: from nutrient requirement to animal response and environmental impact

Current feed evaluation systems for dairy cattle aim to match nutrient requirements with nutrient intake at pre-defined production levels. These systems were not developed to address, and are not suitable to predict, the responses to dietary changes in terms of production level and product composition, excretion of nutrients to the environment, and nutrition related disorders. The change from a requirement to a response system to meet the needs of various stakeholders requires prediction of the profile of absorbed nutrients and its subsequent utilisation for various purposes. This contribution examines the challenges to predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption in dairy cattle and provides guidelines for further improved prediction with regard to animal production responses and environmental pollution. The profile of nutrients available for absorption comprises volatile fatty acids, long-chain fatty acids, amino acids and glucose. Thus the importance of processes in the reticulo-rumen is obvious. Much research into rumen fermentation is aimed at determination of substrate degradation rates. Quantitative knowledge on rates of passage of nutrients out of the rumen is rather limited compared with that on degradation rates, and thus should be an important theme in future research. Current systems largely ignore microbial metabolic variation, and extant mechanistic models of rumen fermentation give only limited attention to explicit representation of microbial metabolic activity. Recent molecular techniques indicate that knowledge on the presence and activity of various microbial species is far from complete. Such techniques may give a wealth of information, but to include such findings in systems predicting the nutrient profile requires close collaboration between molecular scientists and mathematical modellers on interpreting and evaluating quantitative data. Protozoal metabolism is of particular interest here given the paucity of quantitative data. Empirical models lack the biological basis necessary to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce excretion of waste, including nitrogen, phosphorus and methane. Such models may have little predictive value when comparing various feeding strategies. Examples include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II models to quantify methane emissions and current protein evaluation systems to evaluate low protein diets to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment. Nutrient based mechanistic models can address such issues. Since environmental issues generally attract more funding from governmental offices, further development of nutrient based models may well take place within an environmental framework.

Impact on CVD risk of modifying milk fat to decrease intake of SFA and increase intake of cis-MUFA

Despite the acknowledged benefits of reducing SFA intake few countries within the EU meet recognised targets. Milk and dairy products represent the single largest source of dietary SFA in most countries, yet epidemiological evidence indicates that milk has cardioprotective properties such that simply reducing consumption of dairy foods to meet SFA targets may not be a sound public health approach. The present paper explores the options for replacing some of the SFA in milk fat with cis-MUFA through alteration of the diet of the dairy cow, and the evidence that such changes can improve the indicators for CHD and CVD in general for the consumer. In addition, the outcome of such changes on risk factors for CHD and CVD at the population level is examined in the light of a modelling exercise involving data for eleven EU member states. Given the current and projected costs of health care, the results indicate that urgent consideration should be given to such a strategy.

Social interaction deficits and conversational inadequacy in Williams syndrome

Research on social communication skills in individuals with Williams syndrome has been inconclusive, with some arguing that these skills are a relative strength and others that they are a weakness. The aim of the present study was to investigate social interaction abilities in a group of children with WS, and to compare them to a group of children with specific language impairment and a group of typically developing children. Semi-structured conversations were conducted and 100-150 utterances were selected for analysis in terms of exchange structure, turn taking, information transfer and conversational inadequacy. The statistical analyses showed that the children with WS had difficulties with exchange structure and responding appropriately to the interlocutor's requests for information and clarification. They also had significant difficulties with interpreting meaning and providing enough information for the conversational partner. Despite similar language abilities with a group of children with specific language impairment, the children with WS had different social interaction skills, which suggests that they follow an atypical trajectory of development and their neurolinguistic profile does not directly support innate modularity. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranald Macdonald and statistical inference

Ranald Roderick Macdonald (1945-2007) was an important contributor to mathematical psychology in the UK, as a referee and action editor for British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology and as a participant and organizer at the British Psychological Society's Mathematics, statistics and computing section meetings. This appreciation argues that his most important contribution was to the foundations of significance testing, where his concern about what information was relevant in interpreting the results of significance tests led him to be a persuasive advocate for the 'Weak Fisherian' form of hypothesis testing.

Distinguishing novelty and familiarity effects in infant preference procedures

This paper considers possible problems researchers might face when interpreting the results of studies that employ variants of the preference procedure. Infants show a tendency to shift their preference from familiar to novel stimuli with increasing exposure to the familiar stimulus, a behaviour that is exploited by the habituation paradigm. This change in attentional preference with exposure leads us to suggest that researchers interested in infants' pre-experimental or spontaneous preferences should beware of the potentially confounding effects of exposing infants to familiarization trials prior to employing the preference procedure. The notion that infant attentional preference is dynamic also calls into question the use of the direction of post-familiarization preference per se when interpreting the knowledge or strategies available to infants. We look into the results of a cross-modal word learning study to show how the interpretation of results may be difficult when infants exhibit a significant preference in an unexpected direction. As a possible solution to this problem we propose that significant preferences in both directions should be sought at multiple intervals over time. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

The dynamics of threat, fear and intentionality in the conduct disorders: longitudinal findings in the children of women with post-natal depression

This paper considers how environmental threat may contribute to the child's use of avoidant strategies to regulate negative emotions, and how this may interact with high emotional reactivity to create vulnerability to conduct disorder symptoms. We report a study based on the hypothesis that interpreting others' behaviours in terms of their motives and emotions - using the intentional stance - promotes effective social action, but may lead to fear in threatful situations, and that inhibiting the intentional stance may reduce fear but promote conduct disorder symptoms. We assessed 5-year-olds' use of the intentional stance with an intentionality scale, contrasting high and low threat doll play scenarios. In a sample of 47 children of mothers with post-natal depression ( PND) and 35 controls, children rated as securely attached with their mothers at the age of 18 months were better able to preserve the intentional stance than insecure children in high threat scenarios, but not in low threat scenarios. Girls had higher intentionality scores than boys across all scenarios. Only intentionality in the high threat scenario was associated with teacher-rated conduct disorder symptoms, and only in the children of women with PND. Intentionality mediated the associations between attachment security and gender and conduct disorder symptoms in the PND group.

Interpretation of recommended risk terms: differences between doctors and lay people

Objectives: To examine doctors' (Experiment 1) and doctors' and lay people's (Experiment 2) interpretations of two sets of recommended verbal labels for conveying information about side effects incidence rates. Method: Both studies used a controlled empirical methodology in which participants were presented with a hypothetical, but realistic, scenario involving a prescribed medication that was said to be associated with either mild or severe side effects. The probability of each side effect was described using one of the five descriptors advocated by the European Union (Experiment 1) or one of the six descriptors advocated in Calman's risk scale (Experiment 2), and study participants were required to estimate (numerically) the probability of each side effect occurring. Key findings: Experiment 1 showed that the doctors significantly overestimated the risk of side effects occurring when interpreting the five EU descriptors, compared with the assigned probability ranges. Experiment 2 showed that both groups significantly overestimated risk when given the six Calman descriptors, although the degree of overestimation was not as great for the doctors as for the lay people. Conclusion: On the basis of our findings, we argue that we are still a long way from achieving a standardised language of risk for use by both professionals and the general public, although there might be more potential for use of standardised terms among professionals. In the meantime, the EU and other regulatory bodies and health professionals should be very cautious about advocating the use of particular verbal labels for describing medication side effects.