Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

How is the language of medicines use review leaflets symbolising the service?

Introduction The medicines use review (MUR), a new community pharmacy ‘service’, was launched in England and Wales to improve patients’ knowledge and use of medicines through a private, patient–pharmacist appointment. After 18 months, only 30% of pharmacies are providing MURs; at an average of 120 per annum (maximum 400 allowed).1 One reason linked to low delivery is patient recruitment.2 Our aim was to examine how the MUR is symbolised and given meaning via printed patient information, and potential implications. Method The language of 10 MUR patient leaflets, including the NHS booklet,3 and leaflets from multiples and wholesalers was evaluated by discourse analysis. Results and Discussion Before experiencing MURs, patients conceivably ‘categorise’ relationships with pharmacists based on traditional interactions.4 Yet none of the leaflets explicitly describe the MUR as ‘new’ and presuppose patients would become involved in activities outside of their pre-existing relationship with pharmacists such as appointments, self-completion of charts, and pharmacy action plans. The MUR process is described inconsistently, with interchangeable use of formal (‘review meeting‘) and informal (‘friendly’) terminology, the latter presumably to portray an intended ‘negotiation model’ of interaction.5 Assumptions exist about attitudes (‘not understanding’; ‘problems’) that might lead patients to an appointment. However, research has identified a multitude of reasons why patients choose (or not) to consult practitioners,6 and marketing of MURs should also consider other barriers. For example, it may be prudent to remove time limits to avoid implying patients might not be listened to fully, during what is for them an additional practitioner consultation.

The impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and automated dispensing system on the ward pharmacist’s time and activities

Objective To assess the impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and automated dispensing system on the time spent providing a ward pharmacy service and the activities carried out. Setting Surgical ward, London teaching hospital. Method All data were collected two months pre- and one year post-intervention. First, the ward pharmacist recorded the time taken each day for four weeks. Second, an observational study was conducted over 10 weekdays, using two-dimensional work sampling, to identify the ward pharmacist's activities. Finally, medication orders were examined to identify pharmacists' endorsements that should have been, and were actually, made. Key findings Mean time to provide a weekday ward pharmacy service increased from 1 h 8 min to 1 h 38 min per day (P = 0.001; unpaired t-test). There were significant increases in time spent prescription monitoring, recommending changes in therapy/monitoring, giving advice or information, and non-productive time. There were decreases for supply, looking for charts and checking patients' own drugs. There was an increase in the amount of time spent with medical and pharmacy staff, and with 'self'. Seventy-eight per cent of patients' medication records could be assessed for endorsements pre- and 100% post-intervention. Endorsements were required for 390 (50%) of 787 medication orders pre-intervention and 190 (21%) of 897 afterwards (P < 0.0001; chi-square test). Endorsements were made for 214 (55%) of endorsement opportunities pre-intervention and 57 (30%) afterwards (P < 0.0001; chi-square test). Conclusion The intervention increased the overall time required to provide a ward pharmacy service and changed the types of activity undertaken. Contact time with medical and pharmacy staff increased. There was no significant change in time spent with patients. Fewer pharmacy endorsements were required post-intervention, but a lower percentage were actually made. The findings have important implications for the design, introduction and use of similar systems.

A practical approach to goal modelling for time-constrained projects

Goal modelling is a well known rigorous method for analysing problem rationale and developing requirements. Under the pressures typical of time-constrained projects its benefits are not accessible. This is because of the effort and time needed to create the graph and because reading the results can be difficult owing to the effects of crosscutting concerns. Here we introduce an adaptation of KAOS to meet the needs of rapid turn around and clarity. The main aim is to help the stakeholders gain an insight into the larger issues that might be overlooked if they make a premature start into implementation. The method emphasises the use of obstacles, accepts under-refined goals and has new methods for managing crosscutting concerns and strategic decision making. It is expected to be of value to agile as well as traditional processes.

Innovative use of e-portfolio for personal development

iLearn is a quasi-Web 2.0 tool developed in Blackboard to help users with Personal Development Planning (PDP). This paper describes a case study on how the innovative use of mobile digital technology in iLearn e-Portfolio for developing reflective portfolios for PDP benefits the users, who are training to be professionals in construction management and surveying, The e-Portfolio tool benefits users as it enables them to create and share portfolios, record achievements and reflections that support future job applications and promotion. Users find it beneficial because they can make use of iLearn e-Portfolio to keep academic records and achievements, activities and interests, work experience, reflective practice, employer information and some other useful resources, and also to tailor their CV and covering letters including evidence to support their CV, transferable skills and selling points. Useful information for preparing for an interview, reflecting after an event and any thoughts and evaluation can be kept in iLearn e-Portfolio. Keeping assessment and feedback records in iLearn e-Portfolio enables learners to know their progress, to identify any gaps they need to fill to develop their study practices and areas for development. The key points from the feedback on the assignments and assessments are beneficial for future improvement. The reflections on the tasks and how they make use of the advice are particularly useful to improve their overall performance. In terms of pedagogical benefits, the “Individual Learner Profile” records and reviews evidence in verbal communication, basic and higher academic skills, time management, numeracy skill and IT skills, learners become increasingly aware of their own strengths and any weaker areas that may require development. The e-Portfolio also provides opportunity for them to reflect on the experience and skills they have gained whilst participating in activities outside their studies. As the iLearn e-Portfolio is a reflective practice tool, it is consistent with the principle of Schon's reflective practitioner to reframe problems and to explore the consequences of actions. From the users’ feedback, for those who engage regularly in iLearn, they are better able to set agendas for their supervision meetings and provide their supervisor with a unique record of their achievements, skills and attributes which help them writing effective references for them. They make the most of their learning experience in general. They also enhance their transferable skills and employability overall. The iLearn e-Portfolio prepares them for the workplace including continuing professional development. Users are aware of their transferable skills, evidence of the skills and skill level, including award or accreditation, and their personal reflection on their transferable skills. It is beneficial for them to be aware of their transferable skills, to produce evidence of the skills and skills level such as award and accreditation, and to record their personal reflection on their transferable skills. Finally, the innovative use of mobile digital technology in iLearn e-Portfolio for developing reflective portfolios for PDP will improve their employability.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Time series analysis of lava flux

We have applied time series analytical techniques to the flux of lava from an extrusive eruption. Tilt data acting as a proxy for flux are used in a case study of the May–August 1997 period of the eruption at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We justify the use of such a proxy by simple calibratory arguments. Three techniques of time series analysis are employed: spectral, spectrogram and wavelet methods. In addition to the well-known ~9-hour periodicity shown by these data, a previously unknown periodic flux variability is revealed by the wavelet analysis as a 3-day cycle of frequency modulation during June–July 1997, though the physical mechanism responsible is not clear. Such time series analysis has potential for other lava flux proxies at other types of volcanoes.

An evaluation of the use of Cottonseed cake in the diet of growing pigs

An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of including cottonseed cake in rations for weaned growing pigs. Thirty-two Landrace x Large White pigs, weighing 20-24 kg, were included in four blocks formed on the basis of initial weight within sex in an otherwise completely randomized block design. The pigs were killed when they reached a live weight of 75.0 +/- 2.0 kg and the half careases were analysed into cuts and the weights of the organs were recorded. An estimate of the productivity of the pigs on each diet was calculated. Cottonseed cake reduced the voluntary feed intake (p < 0.001) and live weight gains (p < 0.001) and increased the heart, kidney and liver weights (p < 0.01). The pigs on the soya bean-based control diet took the shortest time to reach slaughter weight. The result was probably in part due to lysine deficiency and in part to the effect of free gossypol. It was found that it is at present cost-effective to include cottonseed cake in pig weaner grower diets up to 300 g/kg in Cameroon.

Use of entomopathogenic bacterium Pseudomonas putida (Enterobacteriaceae) and it secretions against the Greater Wax Moth Galleria mellonella pupae

The bacterium from Pseudomonas putida from Steinernema abbasi and its metabolic secretions caused the mortality of the Galleria mellonella pupae. Experiments were conducted in sand and filter paper on time exposure, temperature, moisture, dose and time of penetration of bacterium in pupae and tested stored or dried toxic metabolites using G. mellonella pupae as a test target organism. Death of pupae was probably due to the toxic metabolites. Pseudomonas putida cells were recovered from the haemocoele when bacterial cells were applied to the G. mellonella pupae indicating that bacterial cells can enter the haemocoele in the absence of nematode vector. Penetration of bacterium was found rapidly after application on G. mellonella pupae. Pseudomonas putida or its toxic secretions can be used as a microbial control for insect control. The experimental results indicate that there is possibility of using P. putida and its toxic secretions as a biopesticide and can contribute in the development of new microbial and biological control against insect pests.

Quantification of ruminal Clostridium proteoclasticum by real-time PCR using a molecular beacon approach

Aims: All members of the ruminal Butyrivibrio group convert linoleic acid (cis-9,cis-12-18 : 2) via conjugated 18 : 2 metabolites (mainly cis-9,trans-11-18 : 2, conjugated linoleic acid) to vaccenic acid (trans-11-18 : 1), but only members of a small branch, which includes Clostridium proteoclasticum, of this heterogeneous group further reduce vaccenic acid to stearic acid (18 : 0, SA). The aims of this study were to develop a real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay that would detect and quantify these key SA producers and to use this method to detect diet-associated changes in their populations in ruminal digesta of lactating cows. Materials and Results: The use of primers targeting the 16S rRNA gene of Cl. proteoclasticum was not sufficiently specific when only binding dyes were used for detection in real-time PCR. Their sequences were too similar to some nonproducing strains. A molecular beacon probe was designed specifically to detect and quantify the 16S rRNA genes of the Cl. proteoclasticum subgroup. The probe was characterized by its melting curve and validated using five SA-producing and ten nonproducing Butyrivibrio-like strains and 13 other common ruminal bacteria. Analysis of ruminal digesta collected from dairy cows fed different proportions of starch and fibre indicated a Cl. proteoclasticum population of 2-9% of the eubacterial community. The influence of diet on numbers of these bacteria was less than variations between individual cows. Conclusion: A molecular beacon approach in qPCR enables the detection of Cl. proteoclasticum in ruminal digesta. Their numbers are highly variable between individual animals. Signifance and Impact of the Study: SA producers are fundamental to the flow of polyunsaturated fatty acid and vaccenic acid from the rumen. The method described here enabled preliminary information to be obtained about the size of this population. Further application of the method to digesta samples from cows fed diets of more variable composition should enable us to understand how to control these bacteria in order to enhance the nutritional characteristics of ruminant-derived foods, including milk and beef.

Use of global gene expression patterns in mechanistic studies of oestrogen action in MCF7 human breast cancer cells

Over the years, the MCF7 human breast cancer cell line has provided a model system for the study of cellular and molecular mechanisms in oestrogen regulation of cell proliferation and in progression to oestrogen and antioestrogen independent growth. Global gene expression profiling has shown that oestrogen action in MCF7 cells involves the coordinated regulation of hundreds of genes across a wide range of functional groupings and that more genes are down regulated than upregulated. Adaptation to long-term oestrogen deprivation, which results in loss of oestrogen-responsive growth, involves alterations to gene patterns not only at early time points (0-4 weeks) but continuing through to later times (20-55 weeks), and even involves alterations to patterns of oestrogen-regulated gene expression. Only 48% of the genes which were regulated >= 2-fold by oestradiol in oestrogen-responsive cells retained this responsiveness after long-term oestrogen deprivation but other genes developed de novo oestrogen regulation. Long-term exposure to fulvestrant, which resulted in loss of growth inhibition by the antioestrogen, resulted in some very large fold changes in gene expression up to 10,000-fold. Comparison of gene profiles produced by environmental chemicals with oestrogenic properties showed that each ligand gave its own unique expression profile which suggests that environmental oestrogens entering the human breast may give rise to a more complex web of interference in cell function than simply mimicking oestrogen action at inappropriate times. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential for the use of agent-based models in ecotoxicology

This chapter introduces ABMs, their construction, and the pros and cons of their use. Although relatively new, agent-basedmodels (ABMs) have great potential for use in ecotoxicological research – their primary advantage being the realistic simulations that can be constructed and particularly their explicit handling of space and time in simulations. Examples are provided of their use in ecotoxicology primarily exemplified by different implementations of the ALMaSS system. These examples presented demonstrate how multiple stressors, landscape structure, details regarding toxicology, animal behavior, and socioeconomic effects can and should be taken into account when constructing simulations for risk assessment. Like ecological systems, in ABMs the behavior at the system level is not simply the mean of the component responses, but the sum of the often nonlinear interactions between components in the system; hence this modeling approach opens the door to implementing and testing much more realistic and holistic ecotoxicological models than are currently used.

The use of bioluminescence for monitoring in planta growth dynamics of a Pseudomonas syringae plant pathogen

The use of bioluminescence was evaluated as a tool to study Pseudomonas syringae population dynamics in susceptible and resistant plant environments. Plasmid pGLITE, containing the luxCDABE genes from Photorhabdus luminescens, was introduced into Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola race 7 strain 1449B, a Gram-negative pathogen of bean (Phaseolus vulgaris). Bacteria recovered from plant tissue over a five-day period were enumerated by counting numbers of colony forming units and by measurement of bioluminescence. Direct measurement of bioluminescence from leaf disc homogenates consistently reflected bacterial growth as determined by viable counting, but also detected subtle effects of the plant resistance response on bacterial viability. This bioluminescence procedure enables real time measurement of bacterial metabolism and population dynamics in planta, obviates the need to carry out labour intensive and time consuming traditional enumeration techniques and provides a sensitive assay for studying plant effects on bacterial cells.

Reaching for the skies: Time and turbulence in digital technologies and practices

This research examines dynamics associated with new representational technologies in complex organizations through a study of the use of a Single Model Environment, prototyping and simulation tools in the mega-project to construct Terminal 5 at Heathrow Airport, London. The ambition of the client, BAA. was to change industrial practices reducing project costs and time to delivery through new contractual arrangements and new digitally-enabled collaborative ways of working. The research highlights changes over time and addresses two areas of 'turbulence' in the use of: 1) technologies, where there is a dynamic tension between desires to constantly improve, change and update digital technologies and the need to standardise practices, maintaining and defending the overall integrity of the system; and 2) representations, where dynamics result from the responsibilities and liabilities associated with sharing of digital representations and a lack of trust in the validity of data from other firms. These dynamics are tracked across three stages of this well-managed and innovative project and indicate the generic need to treat digital infrastructure as an ongoing strategic issue.

Preliminary results from a real time control system using optical information

Successful results from training an adaptive controller to use optical information to balance an inverted pendulum are presented in comparison to the training requirements using traditional controller inputs. Results from research into the psychology of the sense of balance in humans are presented as the motivation for the investigation of this new type of controller. The simulated model of the inverted pendulum and the virtual reality environments used to provide the optical input are described The successful introduction of optical information is found to require the preservation of at least two of the traditional input types and entail increased training time for the adaptive controller and reduced performance (measured as the time the pendulum remains upright).