A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Kinetics and mechanism of the interconversion of inverse bicontinuous cubic mesophases

This paper describes time-resolved x-ray diffraction data monitoring the transformation of one inverse bicontinuous cubic mesophase into another, in a hydrated lipid system. The first section of the paper describes a mechanism for the transformation that conserves the topology of the bilayer, based on the work of Charvolin and Sadoc, Fogden and Hyde, and Benedicto and O'Brien in this area. We show a pictorial representation of this mechanism, in terms of both the water channels and the lipid bilayer. The second section describes the experimental results obtained. The system under investigation was 2:1 lauric acid: dilauroylphosphatidylcholine at a hydration of 50% water by weight. A pressure-jump was used to induce a phase transition from the gyroid (Q(II)(G)) to the diamond (Q(II)(D)) bicontinuous cubic mesophase, which was monitored by time-resolved x-ray diffraction. The lattice parameter of both mesophases was found to decrease slightly throughout the transformation, but at the stage where the Q(II)(D) phase first appeared, the ratio of lattice parameters of the two phases was found to be approximately constant for all pressure-jump experiments. The value is consistent with a topology-preserving mechanism. However, the polydomain nature of our sample prevents us from confirming that the specific pathway is that described in the first section of the paper. Our data also reveal signals from two different intermediate structures, one of which we have identified as the inverse hexagonal (H-II) mesophase. We suggest that it plays a role in the transfer of water during the transformation. The rate of the phase transition was found to increase with both temperature and pressure-jump amplitude, and its time scale varied from the order of seconds to minutes, depending on the conditions employed.

Ultrafast charge separation in a photoreactive rhenium-appended porphyrin assembly monitored by picosecond transient infrared spectroscopy

Rhenium(bipyridine)(tricarbonyl)(picoline) units have been linked covalently to tetraphenylmetalloporphyrins of magnesium and zinc via an amide bond between the bipyridine and one phenyl substituent of the porphyrin. The resulting complexes, abbreviated as [Re(CO)(3)(Pic)Bpy-MgTPP][OTf] and [Re(CO)(3)(Pic)Bpy-ZnTPP][OTf], exhibit no signs of electronic interaction between the Re(CO)(3)(bpy) units and the metalloporphyrin units in their ground states. However, emission spectroscopy reveals solvent-dependent quenching of porphyrin emission on irradiation into the long-wavelength absorption bands localized on the porphyrin. The characteristics of the excited states have been probed by picosecond time-resolved absorption (TRVIS) spectroscopy and time-resolved infrared (TRIR) spectroscopy in nitrile solvents. The presence of the charge-separated state involving electron transfer from MgTPP or ZnTPP to Re(bpy) is signaled in the TRIR spectra by a low-frequency shift in the nu(CO) bands of the Re(CO)(3) moiety similar to that observed by spectroelectrochemical reduction. Long-wavelength excitation of [Re(CO)(3)(Pic)Bpy-MTPP][OTf] results in characteristic TRVIS spectra of the S-1 state of the porphyrin that decay with a time constant of 17 ps (M = Mg) or 24 ps (M = Zn). The IR bands of the CS state appear on a time scale of less than 1 ps (Mg) or ca. 5 ps (Zn) and decay giving way to a vibrationally excited (i.e., hot) ground state via back electron transfer. The IR bands of the precursors recover with a time constant of 35 ps (Mg) or 55 ps (Zn). The short lifetimes of the charge-transfer states carry implications for the mechanism of reaction in the presence of triethylamine.

Photochromic dithienylethene derivatives containing Ru(II) or Os(II) metal units. Sensitized photocyclization from a triplet state

Efficient photocyclization from a low-lying triplet state is reported for a photochromic dithienylperfluorocyclopentene with Ru(bpy)(3) units attached via a phenylene linker to the thiophene rings. The ring-closure reaction in the nanosecond domain is sensitized by the metal complexes. Upon photoexcitation into the lowest Ru-to-bpy (MLCT)-M-1 state followed by intersystem crossing to emitting (MLCT)-M-3 states, photoreactive (IL)-I-3 states are populated by an efficient energy-transfer process. The involvement of these (IL)-I-3 states explains the quantum yield of the photocyclization, which is independent of the excitation wavelength but decreases strongly in the presence of dioxygen. This behavior differs substantially from the photocyclization of the nonemissive dithienylperfluorocyclopentene free ligand, which occurs from the lowest (IL)-I-1 state on a picosecond time scale and is insensitive to oxygen quenching. Cyclic voltammetric studies have also been performed to gain further insight into the energetics of the system. The very high photocyclization quantum yields, far above 0.5 in both cases, are ascribed to the strong steric repulsion between the bulky substituents on the dithienylperfluorocyclopentene bridge bearing the chelating bipyridine sites or the Ru(bpy)(3) moieties, forcing the system to adopt nearly exclusively the reactive antiparallel conformation. In contrast, replacement of both Ru(II) centers by Os(II) completely prevents the photocyclization reaction upon light excitation into the low-lying Os-to-bpy (MLCT)-M-1 state. The photoreaction can only be triggered by optical population of the higher lying (IL)-I-1 excited state of the central photochromic unit, but its yield is low due to efficient energy transfer to the luminescent lowest (MLCT)-M-3 state.

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model’s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations.

The dependence of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation on surface temperature and relative humidity

A simulation of the earth's clear-sky long-wave radiation budget is used to examine the dependence of clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) on surface temperature and relative humidity. the simulation uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global reanalysed fields to calculate clear-sky OLR over the period from January 1979 to December 1993, thus allowing the seasonal and interannual time-scales to be resolved. the clear-sky OLR is shown to be primarily dependent on temperature changes at high latitudes and on changes in relative humidity at lower latitudes. Regions exhibiting a ‘super-greenhouse’ effect are identified and are explained by considering the changes in the convective regime associated with the Hadley circulation over the seasonal cycle, and with the Walker circulation over the interannual time-scale. the sensitivity of clear-sky OLR to changes in relative humidity diminishes with increasing relative humidity. This is explained by the increasing saturation of the water-vapour absorption bands with increased moisture. By allowing the relative humidity to vary in specified vertical slabs of the troposphere over an interannual time-scale it is shown that changes in humidity in the mid troposphere (400 to 700 hPa) are of most importance in explaining clear-sky OLR variations. Relative humidity variations do not appear to affect the positive thermodynamic water-vapour feedback significantly in response to surface temperature changes.

Air flow influences on local climate: observed and simulated mean relationships for the United Kingdom

Synoptic-scale air flow variability over the United Kingdom is measured on a daily time scale by following previous work to define 3 indices: geostrophic flow strength, vorticity and direction. Comparing the observed distribution of air flow index values with those determined from a simulation with the Hadley Centre’s global climate model (HadCM2) identifies some minor systematic biases in the model’s synoptic circulation but demonstrates that the major features are well simulated. The relationship between temperature and precipitation from parts of the United Kingdom and these air flow indices (either singly or in pairs) is found to be very similar in both the observations and model output; indeed the simulated and observed precipitation relationships are found to be almost interchangeable in a quantitative sense. These encouraging results imply that some reliability can be assumed for single grid-box and regional output from this climate model; this applies only to those grid boxes evaluated here (which do not have high or complex orography), only to the portion of variability that is controlled by synoptic air flow variations, and only to those surface variables considered here (temperature and precipitation).

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill.

Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability

The consistency of precipitation variability estimated from the multiple satellite-based observing systems is assessed. There is generally good agreement between TRMM TMI, SSM/I, GPCP and AMSRE datasets for the inter-annual variability of precipitation since 1997 but the HOAPS dataset appears to overestimate the magnitude of variability. Over the tropical ocean the TRMM 3B42 dataset produces unrealistic variabilitys. Based upon deseasonalised GPCP data for the period 1998-2008, the sensitivity of global mean precipitation (P) to surface temperature (T) changes (dP/dT) is about 6%/K, although a smaller sensitivity of 3.6%/K is found using monthly GPCP data over the longer period 1989-2008. Over the tropical oceans dP/dT ranges from 10-30%/K depending upon time-period and dataset while over tropical land dP/dT is -8 to -11%/K for the 1998-2008 period. Analyzing the response of the tropical ocean precipitation intensity distribution to changes in T we find the wetter area P shows a strong positive response to T of around 20%/K. The response over the drier tropical regimes is less coherent and varies with datasets, but responses over the tropical land show significant negative relationships over an interannual time-scale. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the datasets strongly influence the precipitation responses over the tropical oceans and help explain some of the discrepancy between different datasets. Consistency between datasets is found to increase on averaging from daily to 5-day time-scales and considering a 1o (or coarser) spatial resolution. Defining the wet and dry tropical ocean regime by the 60th percentile of P intensity, the 5-day average, 1o TMI data exhibits a coherent drying of the dry regime at the rate of -20%/K and the wet regime becomes wetter at a similar rate with warming.

Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet

The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium-range prediction systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three-cluster model of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is examined. The three clusters consist of a mid jet cluster taken to represent an undisturbed jet and south and north jet clusters representing southward and northward shifts of the jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period of three extended winters (October–February) from October 2007–February 2010. The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the ensemble forecasts are compared with those calculated from a 23-extended-winter climatology taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-Year Re-analysis (ERA40) dataset. No evidence of a drift with increasing lead time of the ensemble forecast transition probabilities towards values inconsistent with the 23-extended-winter climatology is found. The ensemble forecasts of transition probabilities are found to have positive Brier Skill at 15 day lead times. It is found that for the three-extended-winter forecast set, probabilistic forecasts initialized in the north jet cluster are generally less skilful than those initialized in the other clusters. This is consistent with the shorter persistence time-scale of the north jet cluster observed in the ERA40 23-extended-winter climatology. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Is ESG commitment linked to investment performance in the real estate sector?

The linkage between corporate commitment to environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues and investment performance has generated a substantial body of research outside the real estate sector. Nevertheless, the relationship between the environmental performance and financial performance of companies is still not well understood as studies have found mixed and contradicting results. Drawing upon the KLD database which contains ratings on seven ESG dimensions from 2003-2009, this paper investigates the relationship between the ESG rating and the financial performance of a sample of US real estate firms. Since the primary transmission channel from ESG activities to financial performance may be better reflected by a firm's intangible assets, we model both Tobin's q and the total annual return in a panel framework with time and sector specific fixed effects. Our results are largely consistent with the existing literature finding a positive relationship between CFP and CSP. Further, the time scale of the lagged effects seems plausible.

Accurate radiometry from space: an essential tool for climate studies

The Earth's climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a ‘primary standard’ and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a ‘metrology laboratory in space’.

Comparing the UK Met Office climate prediction system DePreSys with idealized predictability in the HadCM3 model

The initial condition effect on climate prediction skill over a 2-year hindcast time-scale has been assessed from ensemble HadCM3 climate model runs using anomaly initialization over the period 1990–2001, and making comparisons with runs without initialization (equivalent to climatological conditions), and to anomaly persistence. It is shown that the assimilation improves the prediction skill in the first year globally, and in a number of limited areas out into the second year. Skill in hindcasting surface air temperature anomalies is most marked over ocean areas, and is coincident with areas of high sea surface temperature and ocean heat content skill. Skill improvement over land areas is much more limited but is still detectable in some cases. We found little difference in the skill of hindcasts using three different sets of ocean initial conditions, and we obtained the best results by combining these to form a grand ensemble hindcast set. Results are also compared with the idealized predictability studies of Collins (Clim. Dynam. 2002; 19: 671–692), which used the same model. The maximum lead time for which initialization gives enhanced skill over runs without initialization varies in different regions but is very similar to lead times found in the idealized studies, therefore strongly supporting the process representation in the model as well as its use for operational predictions. The limited 12-year period of the study, however, means that the regional details of model skill should probably be further assessed under a wider range of observational conditions.

Fast northward energy transfer in the Atlantic due to Agulhas rings

The adiabatic transit time of wave energy radiated by an Agulhas ring released in the South Atlantic Ocean to the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated in a two-layer ocean model. Of particular interest is the arrival time of baroclinic energy in the northern part of the Atlantic, because it is related to variations in the meridional overturning circulation. The influence of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is also studied, because it allows for the conversion from barotropic to baroclinic wave energy and the generation of topographic waves. Barotropic energy from the ring is present in the northern part of the model basin within 10 days. From that time, the barotropic energy keeps rising to attain a maximum 500 days after initiation. This is independent of the presence or absence of a ridge in the model basin. Without a ridge in the model, the travel time of the baroclinic signal is 1300 days. This time is similar to the transit time of the ring from the eastern to the western coast of the model basin. In the presence of the ridge, the baroclinic signal arrives in the northern part of the model basin after approximately 10 days, which is the same time scale as that of the barotropic signal. It is apparent that the ridge can facilitate the energy conversion from barotropic to baroclinic waves and the slow baroclinic adjustment can be bypassed. The meridional overturning circulation, parameterized in two ways as either a purely barotropic or a purely baroclinic phenomenon, also responds after 1300 days. The ring temporarily increases the overturning strength. Th presence of the ridge does not alter the time scales.

π-dimerization of pleiadiene radical cations at low temperatures revealed by UV–vis spectroelectrochemistry and quantum theory

One-electron oxidation of the non-alternant polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pleiadiene and related cyclohepta[ c,d]pyrene and cyclohepta[c,d]fluoranthene in THF produces corresponding radical cations detectable in the temperature range of 293–263 K only on the subsecond time scale of cyclic voltammetry. Although the EPR-active red-coloured pleiadiene radical cation is stable according to the literature in concentrated sulfuric acid, spectroelectrochemical measurements reported in this study provide convincing evidence for its facile conversion into the green-coloured, formally closed shell and, hence, EPRsilent π-bound dimer dication stable in THF at 253 K. The unexpected formation of the thermally unstable dimeric product featuring a characteristic intense low-energy absorption band at 673 nm (1.84 eV; logεmax=4.0) is substantiated by ab initio calculations on the parent pleiadiene molecule and the PF6 − salts of the corresponding radical cation and dimer dication. The latter is stabilized with respect to the radical cation by 14.40 kcal mol−1 (DFT B3LYP) [37.64 kcal mol−1 (CASPT2/DFT B3LYP)]. An excellent match has been obtained between the experimental and TDDFT- calculated UV–vis spectra of the PF6 − salt of the pleiadiene dimer dication, considering solvent (THF) effects.